Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:19PM Monday May 20, 2019 3:19 AM EDT (07:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 136 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Overnight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the ohio valley and cross the region Monday. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200111 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
911 pm edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon. High
pressure will return for the middle of the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
One strong thunderstorm is still affecting winchester and the
eastern WV panhandle. This is expected to weaken in the next
hour or two. Overnight, still think there will be a risk of
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across western md and the
potomac highlands. Elsewhere, it will likely remain warm and
dry.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
Model guidance show westerly downslope winds ahead of front with
little instability. Just expecting an isold shra or tsra with
the front. Perhaps may need an smw for the lower waters.

High pressure will build across the area from central canada
Tuesday. Believe gusty northwest winds (15-20 kt) will continue
in the morning on the back side of the departing low. The cold
advection will be responsible for highs around 70.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
A upper level high will build over our region through Saturday. High
pressure at the surface will be in place over the mid-atlantic and
the southeast us. This set up will lead to a warming trend
throughout next week. As the upper level high remains over our
region, upper level shortwaves will move through the system and
affect our area periodically. There is still a lot of uncertainty on
when and where these disturbances will move through the mid-
atlantic. The location of the disturbances will all depend on the
overall location of where the upper level high ridge settles along
the east coast. The main result of this setup will be the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form and move through our
region each day.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
A stray tsra for kmrb this evening, then quiet overnight with no
restrictions.

Isold shra tsra Mon with fropa. Prob too low for any vcts or
tempo groups.

The airmass will be substantially drier Monday night and
Tuesday. Higher confidenceVFR will prevail.

Vfr conditions are expected for all terminals next week as high
pressure builds into our region. Flight restrictions could be
possible within showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
A cold front will cross the waters Monday. Once again, scattered
showers and thunderstorms anticipated to be coincident with the
front. Model soundings suggest deep mixing possible. While some
of this likely tied to showers thunderstorms, believe there is
enough of a gradient component to issue a small craft advisory
for Monday late morning through afternoon as well.

Winds likely to subside after dark due to the nocturnal
inversion, but the pressure gradient with the related low will
support a new round of mixing on Tuesday. More small craft
conditions possible. Quiet weather expected Wednesday-Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
Positive water level departures will linger through tonight. The
wind regime will do nothing to change things through tonight.

If anything, water levels could rise slightly, making for a more
widespread minor flood with high tide early Monday morning. A
cold frontal passage Monday night hopefully will ease this
condition by Tuesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory from 4 am to 11 am edt Monday for
mdz014.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am to 6 pm edt Monday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Klw
near term... Lfr
short term... Klw
long term... Ads
aviation... Ads lfr
marine... Ads lfr
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi49 min SW 7 G 9.9 76°F 75°F1012.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi49 min S 7 G 8.9 75°F 67°F1012.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi49 min SSW 11 G 13 74°F 69°F1013 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi49 min SW 15 G 18
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi43 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 71°F 1013.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi49 min SW 12 G 17 76°F 1013.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi49 min WSW 12 G 14 77°F 67°F1013.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi19 min S 16 G 17 78°F 65°F1012.8 hPa (-0.6)64°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi83 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F64°F62%1013.3 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi24 minS 610.00 miFair75°F63°F67%1014.6 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi23 minS 410.00 miFair76°F63°F66%1012.8 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi44 minS 810.00 miFair74°F64°F72%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4S4S5S4S4SW5S5S3SW4SW3S4S10S11SW11S12SW11SW8SW7SW8S5SW6SW7SW8SW7
1 day agoNW4CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4E5SE3S5S5CalmSE10S8SW9E4SE4SE5SE5E5E5E6
2 days agoW4NW4NW4CalmSW3S5S4S4S5S6S7S10CalmNW6NW4SW4NW5CalmNW4NW4CalmSW4NW7W4

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.