Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:22PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:30 PM EDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:55AMMoonset 3:40PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure will briefly build in tonight into early Tuesday before a low pressure system moves up near the delmarva coast Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure will move through the area Wednesday night. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 klwx 221911
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
311 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move through the area later today. High
pressure will briefly return tonight before low pressure
develops over eastern carolina Tuesday and moves northeast off
the DELMARVA Tuesday night. Upper-level low pressure will move
toward the area Wednesday through Friday.

Near term /through tonight/
Mcv is slowly moving through SE va/ne nc this afternoon. That
feature will pull the last of this morning's rain away from
southern md. Cold front is currently near the spine of the
appalachians but only slowly moving eastward. In between the
front and the rain/cloud-limited airmass across
baltimore/washington, some limited instability has been able to
develop due to insolation. As the front continues eastward,
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop.

Have carried chance pops eastward through this evening, but if
the stable airmass never scours out, combined with sunset, any
shower/storm may have difficulty reaching i-95.

If the front makes it through the area tonight, it won't be by
much, but drier air should eventually filter in. Before it does
so, some patchy fog may develop, mainly in southeastern areas.

Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/
Tuesday's forecast has become increasingly tricky due to a gap
between the synoptic and mesoscale models handling low pressure
development along the front to our southeast. Have chatted with
wpc, and they think the gfs/ecmwf could be suffering from
feedback, and think the nam/wrfs simulations may prove more
accurate unless an unmodeled MCV pulls the surface low farther
north. With better precipitable water values to our southeast,
think heavy rain threat is limited, but areas from
charlottesville to st. Marys could have a period of moderate
rain. It is more uncertain how much rain falls in the metros.

The low will be progressive though, with any rain ending for
most areas Tuesday evening.

A closed upper low will be moving south into the mid-west Wednesday
while a sfc low and associated cold front moves eastward across the
ohio valley. A brief period of subsidence is expected across the mid-
atlantic Wednesday leading to mostly dry conditions for most of the
day. Weak instability and lift increase across the southwest by
late afternoon. If current trends hold, widespread rainfall will
occur Wednesday night as a boundary lifts northward into the
area. There may be some weak instability, resulting in a few
rumbles of thunder.

Have not strayed too far from model consensus for temperatures.

Diurnal ranges will be muted due to clouds and precipitation,
with lows in the 50s to lower 60s and highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
A slow-moving low pressure system will allow for the chance for rain
showers and a few thunderstorms to linger across the region Thursday
into Thursday evening.

The chance for rain showers shift to the mason-dixon line and
adjacent areas Friday as the storm system finally departs northeast
into new england.

By Friday night and Saturday, weak high pressure will move into the
region. Dry conditions and a gusty breeze should ensue.

Rain showers develop in the region again for Sunday as the next
storm system pivots into the region. Temperatures will be warmer.

Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/
Cigs are lifting into the MVFR category at mid afternoon, and
are expected to rise toVFR by this evening. A weak cold front
will be crossing the area. Scattered showers are possible near
the front, and perhaps a thunderstorm, but any impacts would be
very local/targeted, so have only included vcsh in the taf.

Tuesday forecast a little uncertain with guidance spread in
position of low pressure and moderate rainfall. Have hedged
toward a more optimistic solution of MVFR for now, but ifr isn't
out of the question. A break in precipitation is expected
Tuesday night through most of Wednesday, although with continued
uncertainty of how ceilings will respond.

Showers and perhaps a storm are possible Wed night-thu night as
a warm front moves across the terminals. Sub-vfr conditions
possible during this time.

Ifr conditions Thursday. Winds southwest around 5 knots Thursday.

MVFR conditions Thursday night. Winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots
Thursday night.VFR conditions Friday into Friday night. Winds
increasing northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Friday,
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots Friday night.

Marine
Winds have dropped to less than 10 kt. Mixing should be rather
poor today in vicinity of showers. Southerly flow will become
west/northwest this evening with a cold frontal passage. Will
have to monitor the potential of thunderstorms reaching the
waters this evening, although it is looking more doubtful that
any will reach the waters.

The pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday as low pressure
moves up the coast. Have raised a small craft advisory for the
mid bay and lower potomac, where the gradient will be the best.

The winds should subside Tuesday night as the low moves away.

Low pressure will be moving west of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, lifting a warm front into the area. Southerly
flow may reach SCA criteria.

No marine hazards Thursday night. Small craft advisories
possible Friday. No marine hazards Friday night.

Tides/coastal flooding
Anomalies have continued to fall to around 1/2 ft except on the
potomac. Flooding looks unlikely for the next couple cycles at
least. However, a coastal low Tuesday provides some
uncertainty. Guidance ensembles then diverge substantially
through midweek, although increasing water levels look more
likely by Wednesday night.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz533-534-537-543.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Klw
aviation... Ads/klw
marine... Ads/klw
tides/coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi43 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 69°F1013.8 hPa
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 24 mi43 min W 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 71°F1015.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi43 min S 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 70°F1013.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi121 min E 1 70°F 1015 hPa63°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi43 min E 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 67°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi43 min SE 5.1 G 5.1
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi31 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 58°F1015.5 hPa (-1.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi43 min N 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 1015.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 70°F1014.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi31 min SE 5.1 G 6 64°F 66°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
SE4
G8
SE6
S6
SE5
SE4
G7
SE7
SE5
SE3
E2
SE4
G7
NE1
NE1
NE2
E1
--
SE1
SE1
SE3
SW2
S3
S5
S2
SW2
SW2
1 day
ago
E3
G9
SE4
G10
SE5
G8
SE5
G10
E4
G8
E6
SE4
G8
SE2
G6
SE3
G6
SE3
E2
G5
E1
G4
E2
G6
SE1
G5
S4
SE4
G8
SE4
G8
SE4
G8
SE5
G8
SE5
G9
E3
G7
SE4
G10
SE4
G8
S7
2 days
ago
SW8
SW4
G11
E2
SE2
SW4
--
S2
SE2
W1
S2
S2
--
NE1
G5
NE4
G11
NE3
G11
E4
G12
E4
G11
NE4
G9
S1
G8
E1
G6
E3
G9
SE5
G9
E4
G8
E3
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi35 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F64°F84%1014.7 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair70°F66°F88%1015.6 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi93 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F62°F79%1014.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi36 minS 310.00 miFair71°F66°F86%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrSE10SE12SE9SE7S8S8S4S5NE5E6NE6E6E5E5CalmCalmSE4S3CalmS4SE43E4S5
1 day agoE9E8E9E10E9E8SE14SE6SE7E4E10E8E9SE3E3E9CalmCalmSE3CalmSE8SE6SE4SE10
2 days agoW15
G22
SW8
G15
SE4N4NW8S4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE6NE10E14
G17
E10E7E10E12NE11NE11NE9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Goose Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:35 PM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.81.71.410.70.40.30.20.40.71.11.51.61.61.41.10.70.40.20.20.30.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:43 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.31.41.31.10.80.60.40.20.20.20.40.81.11.21.21.10.90.60.30.20.10.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.