Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:38 AM EST (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 338 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 5 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely with areas of drizzle.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely with areas of drizzle.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely with areas of drizzle.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 338 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters this morning. It will remain stalled to the south through the end of the week before gradually returning north as a warm front during the weekend. A cold front will push east across the area on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220846
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
346 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will drop to our south today before stalling to our
south tonight. The boundary will return north as a warm front
Friday and it will stall out overhead Saturday. A stronger cold
front will pass through from the west Sunday and high pressure
will return for early next week. Saturday before a stronger
cold front passes through from the west on Sunday. Low pressure
may pass by to our south Monday before high pressure returns for
the middle portion of next week.

Near term through tonight
A cold front is passing through the area early this morning. The
boundary will continue to push to our south later this morning
through this afternoon. A wind shift to the north and eventually
the northeast behind the boundary will allow for significantly
chillier conditions compared to recent days. Temperatures will
fall through the 50s early this morning and then through the 40s
for most areas this afternoon. The front is shallow... Meaning
the low-level flow is expected to remain out of the southwest.

This means that plenty of clouds will remain in place as warm
and moist air overruns the cooler air near the surface. A few
showers are possible early this morning as well... But more
widespread light rain and drizzle is expected later this morning
and afternoon as an upper-level disturbance passes through the
area.

The upper-level disturbance will move off to the east
tonight... But an east to northeast flow on the cool side of the
boundary will continue to usher in chillier conditions from the
atlantic. Warm and moist air will continue to overrun the
surface cooler air resulting in plenty of clouds along with
areas the likelihood of rain and drizzle. Rainfall amounts will
be light. Min temps will range from the mid and upper 30s across
most locations to perhaps the lower 40s in central virginia.

Will have to monitor locations near the allegheny front in
western maryland and eastern west virginia. Temps may dip a
close to freezing... Causing the chance for light freezing
rain freezing drizzle. Higher resolution guidance continues to
suggest this while lower resolution guidance keeps it warmer.

Did lean the forecast closer to the higher resolution guidance
and also noting the dewpoints in the 20s upstream over central
pa. Have added the chance for freezing rain across these areas
tonight and will mention in the hwo. Later shifts will have to
take a closer look at the guidance and observations later today
to determine if any headlines are needed.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The boundary will return north as a warm front Friday into
Friday night as low pressure tracks through the great lakes into
canada. Latest guidance has come into decent agreement showing
that the boundary makes it into the potomac highlands and
central shenandoah valley. This means that most areas will be on
the cool side of the boundary with MAX temps in the 40s to
perhaps lower 50s for most areas along with plenty of clouds and
times of light rain and drizzle. However... Some areas in the
potomac highlands could punch into the warm sector later Friday
with temps in the 60s possible.

High pressure will swing across new england Saturday into
Saturday night and this will likely keep the boundary hung up
over our area for Saturday as well. With the boundary
overhead... Certainty in the forecast is low. The boundary will
separate much cooler marine air from more very warm conditions
for this time of year. Latest guidance shows the boundary most
likely getting hung up just south and west of the potomac river
across the potomac highlands into central virginia. Temps in the
40s and 50s are expected Saturday on the cool side of the
boundary but temps in the 60s and perhaps 70s are expected on
the warm side of the boundary. Shortwave energy will also pass
through the area... Bringing the chances for showers. The best
chance for rain will be along and north of the boundary where
isentropic lift will add to the forcing.

The boundary will likely remain nearly stationary Saturday
night. Showers are possible with min temps ranging from the 40s
north and east of the boundary to the 50s and perhaps lower 60s
south of the boundary.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Low pressure will track northeastward across the upper great
lakes on Sunday while its associated cold front is poised to
move through our region the second half of Sunday. This will
result in elevated rain chances and the potential for a few
thunderstorms with the frontal passage as guidance indicates
some instability cape. 850 temperatures will start the day
Sunday in the 11-13c range with WAA ongoing and we reside in the
warm sector ahead of the cold front. These factors will help to
deliver highs in the upper 60s or perhaps in to the 70s should
the warmer guidance win out. As the front slides through the
area by Sunday evening, and modest CAA takes over, 850
temperatures will have dropped off a good 10c and nearing 0c
across our western zones.

Gfs ECMWF differ in the progression of the front, as the ecmwf
stalls the front to our southeast on Monday, allowing a wave of
low pressure to ride northeastward along it. This would keep
chance pops at least for the southern half of our CWA into
Monday, while the GFS keeps the front much further south, thus
our region remains dry. Will maintain rain chances during the
day on Monday for now and see if a little better agreement can
be achieved. High pressure of pacific origin moves in from the
west and sets up shop over our region through Tuesday.

Temperatures during this period will continue to remain above
normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s, and overnight lows
above freezing in the 30s 40s.

The aforementioned high pressure shifts off the carolina coast on
Wednesday, delivering a return flow across the region. Global
models then diverge once again on the strength and timing of a
low pressure area moving northeastward out of the arklatex
region. GFS is faster and stronger, bringing increased rain
chances by Wednesday night, while the ECMWF is slower and
weaker, keeping much of the precipitation away from our area.

For now, have introduced chance pops Wednesday night for much of
the area. Regardless, clouds will be on the increase Wednesday
and Wednesday night as an upper level jet resides overhead and
undulations in the mid-levels near our region. Temperatures will
remain above normal Wednesday and Wednesday night with WAA and
cloud cover favored.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
A cold front will drop to the south today. Warm and moist air
will overrun the surface cooler air in place... Resulting in low
clouds along with times of rain and drizzle through Friday
night. Ifr conditions are likely... But certainty as to when the
ifr conditions begin is low. Will lean toward a majority of the
guidance which shows ifr conditions moving in late this
morning early afternoon. Given the dry air advection and
MVFRVFR CIGS upstream this does appear to suggest that MVFR
cigs should hold on at least until mid-morning.

The boundary may lift a bit farther north Saturday and Saturday
night. Most terminals should still be on the cool side of the
boundary which means more low clouds along with areas of
fog... Light rain and drizzle. Perhaps kcho will have improving
conditions with the boundary setting up just to their north.

A cold front will approach and cross the area on Sunday, moving
east of the terminals by Sunday evening. This will result in
increased rain chances, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, as
MVFR ifr vis CIGS look like a good bet. Winds will favor a
southerly trajectory ahead of the front, veering out of the west
northwest Sunday evening while conditions gradually improve
overnight Sunday as drier air filters in to the region. High
pressure will move in from the west through Monday night,
providing dry weather, light winds andVFR conditions at all
terminals.

Marine
A boundary will drop to the south today and northeast winds are
expected through tonight. A pressure surge this morning and
again later this afternoon and evening is expected. A small
craft advisory is in effect for all of the waters until 6 am and
for the maryland chesapeake bay and lower tidal potomac river
today through this evening. There may be a lull in the wind
gusts for a period late this morning into this afternoon in
between pressure surges.

The boundary will likely remain to the south through Saturday
night. As of now... It appears that the gradient will be light
enough for winds to remain below SCA criteria.

Sca conditions possible Sunday as a cold front approaches from the
west and crosses our waters by Sunday evening. This front will
bring increased rain chances and perhaps a few thunderstorms
with its passage. High pressure of pacific origin will build in
from the west in the wake of the fropa, delivering light winds
over our waters, with no headlines expected through Monday
night.

Climate
From Wednesday february 21st the following records were broken.

For iad: a monthly record high minimum temperature of 59
degrees occurred. This breaks the old record of 55 degrees set
on february 17th 1976. The high of 80 degrees was also a monthly
record, breaking the old record of 79 degrees set on february
24th 1985 and february 25th 2000.

For dca: a daily record high minimum temperature of 56 degrees
occurred. This breaks the old record of 51 degrees set in 1954.

The high of 82 degrees was also a daily record, breaking the
old record of 75 degrees set in 1953.

For bwi: a daily record high minimum temperature of 52 degrees
occurred. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1981.

The high of 79 degrees was also a daily record, breaking the
old record of 74 degrees set in 1930.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530>534-
537>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz535-536.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Bkf
aviation... Bjl bkf
marine... Bjl bkf
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi50 min ENE 2.9 G 6 59°F 51°F1028.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi50 min NNE 6 G 11 59°F 48°F1030.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi128 min NNE 4.1 59°F 1030 hPa52°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi50 min NNW 4.1 G 6 56°F 42°F1029.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi50 min NE 6 G 8
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi50 min NNW 17 G 18 48°F 1030.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 53°F1029.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi38 min NNE 5.1 G 15 51°F 41°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi42 minENE 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1029.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi43 minNE 610.00 miOvercast65°F62°F92%1030.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi42 minNE 310.00 miOvercast60°F44°F56%1030.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi43 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F61°F100%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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SW7SW8S8SW9CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE11NE11
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2 days agoS8S8S6SW7SW6S7S6S5S6S9S7SW3SW4S8S6S8S9S8SW5S9S10S8SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Goose Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30-00.10.30.71.21.51.71.61.30.90.50.30.100.10.40.81.21.41.41.31

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:16 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:15 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.1-000.10.40.81.11.21.210.70.50.30.100.10.20.50.811.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.