Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:38PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:53 PM EDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:33AMMoonset 6:00PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 732 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt late. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore tonight. A slow moving cold front and remnants of tropical depression cindy will affect the area from Friday into Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 221859
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
259 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
A stalled boundary will return north as a warm front toward the
area tonight. A cold front will cross the area late Friday
night into Saturday, with tropical moisture streaming into the
mid atlantic ahead of the cold front. High pressure will return
Sunday and persist through early next week.

Near term through tonight
A shield of cirrus has been persistent today across the forecast
area. Nonetheless, temperatures have risen to the mid to upper
80s. Believe we will need a boost into the lower 90s to reach
convective potential. That has been achieved in western
pennsylvania this afternoon. Those thunderstorm clusters will be
moving southeast toward maryland. Consensus is that storms will
weaken before entering area. Am still holding onto a chance for
the mountains late in the day.

A surge of isentropic lift will be approaching the area tonight.

While this should be quick moving, precipitable waters will be
increasing in excess of 2 inches, so locally heavy rain will be
possible. The best opportunity for showers will be in the
potomac highlands. Instability will be limited, so will be
confining that to slight chance at best.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The first round of showers will be exiting maryland in the
morning. There is substantial uncertainty what will transpire
during the midday-afternoon hours. The latest indications are
that mid-levels will be warm enough that the atmosphere will be
capped. Have reduced pops to indicate a break in the warm
sector, but not eliminated the mention entirely due to the
uncertainty. There will still be a 850-500 mb jet on the order
of 40-50 kt, so if the cap is broken, strong storms will result.

Heights lower Friday night as the cold front approaches, with
the remnant low of cindy intertwined. Model guidance remains
consistent that another mid level speed max... This time up to 60
kt... Will be shooting northeast in advance of the low. While
instability will be meager, shear will be plentiful, especially
east of the track of the low. At this time, that track seems to
be from staunton waynesboro across metro dc baltimore. There
will be ample convergent forcing for another round of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Given precipitable waters above 2
inches (possibly up to 2.5 inches), high confidence that locally
heavy rain will result. The question remains if shear can root
in the boundary layer. If so, then an overnight severe risk
would be realized as well.

The front low will clear the area Saturday... With spread
remaining in how quickly that will transpire. Grids depict
improvement over the course of the day, but held onto showers
southeast of dc during the afternoon. Will have clearing skies
by evening.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Below normal temperatures are expected much of next week as a large-
scale trough slowly pivots across the northeastern conus. Models are
in above average agreement across our area during this time,
increasing confidence in the forecast (highs generally upper
70s lower 80s with lows several degrees on either side of 60, about
5-10 degrees below normal).

A secondary (moisture-starved) cool front should cross the area late
Monday. Again, models ensembles cluster reasonably well for this
time range. An increasing in high and mid-level clouds and a few
showers are likely during this time.

A gradually warming trend should commence by the end of next week as
high pressure moves offshore, resulting in a southwesterly return
flow.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Overall,VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through
Friday. However, a round of showers thunderstorms will be
crossing the area late tonight, some of which may contain
moderate to locally heavy rain. The issue remains confidence in
impacts with respect to a point forecast. If storms do reach an
airfield, then restrictions would result.

There will be a lull on Friday midday-afternoon. A few
showers thunderstorms may be around (more conditional). Again,
any storm would result in brief restrictions, but the likelihood
of that will be lower in the afternoon than early morning.

A second round will cross the terminals late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Areal coverage should be better. Again, local
restrictions likely within storms.

Gradual improvement will come during the day on Saturday. Mainly
vfr sun-mon with wly flow AOB 10 kts.

Marine
Winds less than 10 kt this afternoon. Southwest flow will
increase tonight, with flow aloft substantive through Friday
night. The complication is poor mixing. Am keeping overnight
small craft for the mid bay lower potomac, and for all waters
Friday-Friday night. Given the wind flow aloft, higher winds
likely in vicinity of showers thunderstorms. The best chance for
storms over the waters will be late Friday into early Saturday.

Mixing will improve during the day on Saturday in the wake of
the cold front. The gradient should subside Saturday night.

Gusts should remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday
into Monday as high pressure builds over the waters.

Hydrology
No changes to the going hydro thoughts. Given brief nature of
the two round of moderate to heavy rain and scattered
showers storms in between, areal average storm total (tonight
through Saturday) rainfall are generally in the 1-2 inch range,
gusts should remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday
into Monday as high pressure builds over the waters.Possibly
less to the southeast. If anywhere exceeds two inches areal
average, it would be the potomac highlands. Thus mmefs indicates
little to no potential of mainstem river flooding. The main
concern will be flash flooding in any areas which receive
repeated and or prolonged periods of heavy rain. Again, that
would be the mountains, primarily Friday night into Saturday
morning, with the preceding events priming saturating the soils.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels remain near astronomical normals. While an increase
is anticipated through Friday, flow will remain southwest. As
such, flooding is not anticipated at this time. However,
caution action stages likely will be reached by Friday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday
for anz530-531-535-536-538>540.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz532>534-537-541>543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Dfh
aviation... Hts dfh
marine... Hts dfh
hydrology... Hts ads
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi54 min SW 4.1 G 7 84°F 80°F1013.4 hPa (-1.0)
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 24 mi126 min W 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 83°F1014.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 86°F 83°F1013.3 hPa (-1.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi144 min SSW 1 83°F 1014 hPa73°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 7 83°F 76°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 5.1
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi44 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 83°F 1014.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi54 min SW 6 G 7 84°F 1014.8 hPa (-1.0)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 6 84°F 79°F1014.3 hPa (-0.7)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi54 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 83°F 78°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi58 minSSW 410.00 miFair86°F75°F72%1014.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair83°F72°F72%1015.9 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi1.9 hrsS 410.00 miFair86°F70°F61%1014.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi79 minSSW 610.00 miFair85°F75°F71%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5SW8SW7SW8W6W43CalmSW3W3CalmCalmS33S6S7SW4SW6SW7SW6SW4SW5SW4
1 day agoSW10SW7SW6SW8W7SW9W10W7W3SW4SW3SW5SW5SW7S8S9S11S9W7SW5S13S8S10S8
2 days agoNW4SW7CalmCalmSW4SW3CalmW4W4SW3SW4W3W3W4S8W5NW83S8S11S11SW13SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Goose Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:21 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 PM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.8221.71.20.80.50.20.10.10.40.81.31.61.71.51.20.80.40.20.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.31.51.51.310.70.40.20.100.20.50.91.11.21.210.70.40.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.