Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 12:42 PM EST (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1231 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 1231 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through this afternoon. A cold front will pass through late tonight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure will return later Wednesday through early Friday, then another cold front will approach late Friday into Saturday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night, and again Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211518
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1018 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure develops along the southeast coast tonight,
and tracks northeast and off the mid atlantic coast on Wednesday
as a cold front pushes through the local area. High pressure
builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon through Friday
as low pressure lingers from florida to south carolina.

Near term through tonight
Current forecast on track with only minor changes made to the
grids late this morning. Cirrus will continue to overspread the
area from the ssw along with sct-bkn sc developing over the next
few hrs. Look for skies to become pt sunny. Highs 60-65.

Pvs dscn:
a quick moving NRN stream wave lifts into the northeast wed
with the trailing cold front crossing the local area by 12z wed.

Meanwhile, a weak sfc low progged to lift n-ne along the mid-
atlantic coast wed. Where the models continue to differ is just
how far west any measurable pcpn gets. GFS is closer to the
coast with the NAM sref ECMWF favoring some light pcpn as far
west as the piedmont. Best lift progged east of i95 between 06z-
12z wed. Thus, expect a period of showers mainly along and east
of i-95 after midnight... Quickly shifting toward the coast
around 12z then offshore by 15z wed. Kept likely pops east of
i95 with chc pops to the west for now. Lows tues night in the
40s to lwr 50s se. Little QPF west of i95, .10 to .25 east.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Given the spread in the models between the drier GFS and
slower wetter nam, have bumped pops up a bit along the coast
through 15z Wed morning to high chance (40-50%) with low-end
likely pops just off the coast. Dry farther inland. Skies clear
out around sunrise west of i-95 and by late morning along the
coast. Mostly sunny all areas Wed aftn as much drier air filters
in on nnw low level flow and sfc high pressure building in from
the nw. Lagging CAA and sunshine should allow for highs in the
upper 50s north to the lower-mid 60s se. Mostly clear colder wed
night Thu am with lows in the mid 20s NW to the mid 30s se.

Gfs is more aggressive than the ecwmf NAM at allowing for deeper
moisture to linger and lift back N in the vicinity of the nc
coast for thanksgiving. Increased clouds a bit over SE va NE nc
but stayed with a dry forecast for now even in these areas.

Overall mostly sunny N to partly sunny s. Chilly for thanksgiving
day with high in the mid-upper 40s to lower 50s (genly going on
the cold side of mav met guidance due to shallow mixing as the
sfc high settles over northern 1 2 of the cwa). Partly cloudy
thu night and mostly sunny and turning a little milder Fri with
highs in the lower-mid 50s after lows mainly in the 30-35 f
range.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The next front pushes across the region sat. It will be
moisture starved as any support for pcpn stays north. Highs sat
in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. Dry colder Sun and Mon as canadian
high pressure returns. Highs Sun upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun night
in the mid 20s-mid 30s. Highs Mon only in the low-mid 40s.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions to prevail today, and through tonight for the
most part even as clouds increase with bkn ovc CIGS expected.

Winds today will be from the ssw, with gusts to ~20 kt from
15z-21z at kric and ksby, genly 15 kt or less elsewhere. Potential
for periodic MVFR conditions (mainly east of i-95) late tonight from
06-12z Wed as a weak front passes through the region with low
pressure strengthening off the va nc coast. Otherwise, skies
gradually clear out Wed from W to E and winds shift to the nnw
at 10-15 kt with higher gusts.VFR dry wx expected Wed night-sat
as high pressure settles over the region. Some mid high cigs
possible Thu (mainly for SE va NE nc), but moisture and chances
for rain look to stay south of the local area.

Marine
High pressure over the area this morning will slide offshore by
midday and move further out to sea this afternoon. Expect winds to
remain s-sw 10 to 15 kt (15-20 kt over NRN coastal waters) thru
today. Seas 2 ft south and 2-4 ft north; waves 1-3 ft. A canadian
low pressure system will drag a cold front through the oh valley
late today, approaching the waters Wed morning. Also, low pressure
will develop off the SE coast tonight, then lifts NE just off the
mid atlc coast Wed morning into Wed aftn. Expect s-sw winds 5-15 kt
tonight to become wnw around daybreak wed. Winds then increase to 15-
25 kt all waters by late Wed morning afternoon (highest southern
coastal waters where gusts may reach 30 kt). Winds become N and
gradually diminish Wed night as cool high pressure builds into the
region. Scas will likely be needed for most, if not all, of the
marine area for Wed wed night. After coordination with neighboring
offices, plan to hold off on issuance of SCA this morning as start
time is still 3rd period. Seas expected to reach 5-7 ft; waves 3-4
ft on wed. Sub-sca conditions then expected thanksgiving day and
Friday with high pressure nearby.

Equipment
Kdox remains down. Parts are on order and expected to arrive wed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb mpr
short term... Lkb mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Lkb
marine... Jdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi43 min SSW 13 G 18 56°F 1021.1 hPa (-1.3)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi33 min S 14 G 18 55°F 2 ft1028.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi43 min 56°F 50°F1021.2 hPa (-1.6)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi43 min SSW 13 G 18 56°F 53°F1020.2 hPa (-1.7)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi43 min S 17 G 21 52°F 48°F1021.4 hPa (-1.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi43 min SW 9.9 G 12
44042 - Potomac, MD 31 mi33 min SW 12 G 14 56°F 2 ft1020.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi43 min S 21 G 24 55°F 52°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi73 min S 9.9 58°F 1020 hPa31°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi43 min SW 12 G 16 57°F 50°F1021 hPa (-1.7)
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi33 min S 16 G 19 55°F 1 ft1018 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi43 min 55°F 39°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi43 min 58°F 1018.2 hPa (-2.2)
NCDV2 43 mi43 min SSW 6 G 11 57°F 50°F1019.1 hPa (-1.6)
44043 - Patapsco, MD 48 mi33 min S 9.7 G 12 53°F 1 ft1019.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi43 min S 12 G 17 56°F 48°F1018.8 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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W9
G14
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G14
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NW25
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S16
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G35
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi58 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair55°F30°F38%1021.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi51 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F32°F38%1020.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi57 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair55°F30°F38%1021.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi50 minS 1210.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1021 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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G13
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W4CalmSE4CalmSE4S4Calm3CalmSE4S4S6S6S6S4S63
G11
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1 day agoNW20
G29
NW14
G25
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NW14NW15
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W8NW8NW9
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2 days agoS13
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S11SW11
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G33
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G25
NW17
G28

Tide / Current Tables for Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland
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Smithville Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:26 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:46 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:09 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.50.70.91.11.21.210.80.60.40.20.20.30.60.91.21.41.51.51.31.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:36 AM EST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:34 PM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.30.30.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.200.30.60.70.70.50.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.