Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 1:02 AM EST (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1258 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft after midnight.
ANZ500 1258 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Arctic high pressure will slowly build over the region through the day on Tuesday, shifting off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night. Low pressure passing through the central u.s. Will approach the region Wednesday, and along with its associated cold front will cross the waters on Thursday. A secondary cold front will cross the waters Friday, as high pressure returns through the first half of the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required Tuesday night, while looking likely Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220520
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1220 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure moves off the coast this evening. A series
of low pressure systems will track northeast along the mountains
Wednesday and Thursday. The associated warm front lifts north
of the area Wednesday with the trailing cold front crossing the
region Thursday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 750 pm est Monday...

arctic hi pres builds over the local area tonight into tue
morning when most numerical guidance depicts it as a 1040mb high
centered over the mid-atlantic by 12z 22 Tue morning. Tonight
will likely be the coldest night with lows ranging from the
single digits over the NW piedmont, to the low mid teens from
central s-central va to the md ERN shore, and upper teens for
far SE va NE nc under a clear sky. NW winds remain gusty over
the ERN shore until about midnight before waning. Wind chills
down to near zero overnight over portions of the ERN shore... But
generally no lower than the single digits to mid teens
elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday
As of 350 pm est Monday...

slight moderation expected Tue as the high slowly shifts just
off the coast late in the day. Highs ranging from the mid 30s n
to the upper 30s near 40f S under a sunny sky with perhaps an
increase in thin high clouds late.

Models in good agreement that the sfc high (still 1035mb+) remains
near the coast into Tuesday evening, so temperatures should
cool quickly under a mainly clear sky. Min temperatures will
probably be just as cold near the coast as they will be well
inland and are expected to drop to 25-30 f in the late evening,
before becoming steady or slowly rising overnight with
increasing clouds. A warm front will lift through the area
Wednesday. Becoming mostly cloudy, but milder with highs ranging
from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE by late Wed aftn. There
is a 20-40% chc of light rain from the piedmont and south-
central va northeast to the lwr md ERN shore. Depending on how
quickly any light rain arrives early Wed morning, there is a
small window of opportunity that temperatures may still be at or
just below freezing across the piedmont. The NAM (both 12z and
now the new 18z) is more aggressive with some moisture making
it into the CWA Wed morning as compared to the drier GFS ecmwf.

This is something that bears watching but as the ground road
temperatures will be cold, though precipitation amounts are
expected to be light. Best opportunity for any light freezing
rain with a more significant accumulation will likely be just
west & SW of the cwa. Strong southerly flow Wed night into early
thu will keep mins very warm Wed night; much of the area may
even see readings rise a few more degrees overnight before the
arrival of the more widespread rain after 06z thu. Rain becomes
moderate to heavy for about a 6-hr period at any given location
(generally west of i-95 prior to 12z Thu and along east of i-95
from 12-18z thu. QPF amounts will avg 0.75" to 1.00" area-wide.

Drying from W to E Thu aftn, forecast is a blend between the
faster GFS and slower ecwmf. Highs Thu into the 60s SE and in
the 50s farther N and w. Temperatures may fall a bit through the
aftn.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 330 pm est Monday...

any rain showers come to an end by early Friday morning as the front
moves offshore and colder drier air filters into the region. With
clearing skies Thursday night, lows dip back down into the upper 20s
to lower 30s across the region. A secondary, dry cold front crosses
the region during the day Friday. Am not expecting much in the way
of pops with this system. Highs only make it up into the 40s Friday
afternoon with temperatures dropping into the upper teens to 20s
across the region for Friday night. Dry and cool conditions will
persist for the first half of the weekend as high pressure remains
in control during this time period.

Much uncertainty exists for the second half of the weekend into
early next week with the ECMWF developing a coastal that impacts the
region by early next week. Showed an increase in pops across the se
Monday to account for this, but went no higher than chance pops at
this time.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 1220 am est Tuesday...

vfr conditions thru the forecast period as high pressure moves off
the coast by 00z wed. Some high level clouds overspread the area
late. N-nw AOB 10 kts wind slowly shift to the south later today.

Outlook:
low pressure and assctd frontal bndrys will affects the area wed
into thurs. This system will likely bring more rain and flight
restrictions, especially from 06-18z thu. High pressure briefly
returns Thursday night, before another cold front sfc trough crosses
the area on Friday (conditions look to remainVFR Thu night and fri).

Marine
As of 640 pm est Monday...

all gale warnings have now expired as winds are largely gusting
below 35 knots. Winds will continue to diminish overnight and
into tomorrow morning. The SCA for the upper james river has
also been allowed to expire as winds continue to diminish.

Previous discussion: winds have diminished across the area this
aftn as strong (~1036 mb) sfc high pressure builds in from the
nw and low pressure over far ERN canada continues to move away
from the region. Cancelled the gale warning and issued an sca
over the SRN coastal waters, but extended the warning until 7 pm
this evening N of CAPE charles (since ASOS awos stations on the
atlantic coast of md va are still reporting gusts of 30 kt).

Scas remain in effect for all other marine zones. Winds have
diminished to 20-30 kt over the bay 20-25 kt over the
rivers sound. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range this aftn with 3-5 ft
waves on the bay. Given current sfc temps and wind speeds,
nomograms continue to suggest moderate rates of ice accretion
across areas N of parramore island. Therefore, a freezing spray
advisory remains in place through 03z across these areas.

However, light freezing spray will continue elsewhere across all
waters except in nc through at least the first part of tonight.

Winds continue to diminish this evening through Tue am as the
aforementioned area of high pressure settles into the region.

Therefore, expect winds seas to fall below SCA criteria between 06-
12z Tue (first on the rivers currituck sound and last on the ocean).

Current headlines reflect this thinking. High pressure finally
becomes centered over the waters by Tue aftn. Winds remain AOB 15 kt
from Tue aftn-early Wed am as high pressure moves offshore and winds
turn to the s. Another area of low pressure is progged to approach
the waters Wed night. At this time, it looks like winds increase out
of the S during the day on Wed and reach SCA thresholds late wed-thu
(coupled W increasing waves seas). At this time, scas look likely
for the bay ocean from late wed-thu. Winds turn to the NW in the
wake of the low Thu night, but will remain around or just below sca
thresholds.

Equipment
As of 340 am est Monday...

the kakq radar will remain down until further notice due to a
mechanical failure.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est early this morning for
anz633-635-636-638.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz630>632-634.

Low water advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
anz652-654.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Alb lkb
short term... Jdm lkb
long term... Ajb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb eri mpr
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi51 min NNW 15 G 20 18°F 1036.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi51 min 21°F 32°F1035.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi45 min NW 8.9 G 12 19°F 38°F1035.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi45 min NW 8.9 G 14 19°F 1035.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi51 min N 20 G 25
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi63 min WNW 15 G 18 18°F 37°F1036.5 hPa (+1.9)0°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi153 min NNW 7 17°F 1035 hPa2°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi51 min N 13 G 17 20°F 33°F1035.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi45 min 17°F 1035.6 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi51 min 18°F -1°F
NCDV2 43 mi51 min NW 6 G 12 17°F 32°F1036.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi45 min WNW 9.9 G 14 17°F 36°F1036.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi83 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair19°F0°F42%1035.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi71 minWNW 1110.00 miFair18°F3°F52%1035.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi80 minWNW 510.00 miFair18°F3°F53%1036.2 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS8S7SE7SE10SE8
G13
SE16W8
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S7S7NW12
G30
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E53E6E9E6E6SE5E9E8E9SE12SE14
G20
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G23
SE14
G19
SE10
G17
SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:21 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:20 PM EST     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.300.30.40.40.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.40.70.80.80.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.