Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:46 PM EST (22:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 514 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight... NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely with patchy drizzle.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely with areas of drizzle.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely with areas of drizzle.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 514 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled to the south through the end of the week before gradually returning north as a warm front during the weekend. A cold front will push east across the area on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222027
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
327 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A frontal boundary stalls across the region tonight, then lifts
back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front crosses
the area late Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 3 pm, ric orf ecg all have broken the record high for today.

Rer's to be issued later this aftrn.

Latest msas shows that the shallow backdoor front has stalled along
the differential heating boundary this afternoon, basically along a
i64 va st rt 360 line. Interesting to note the temp diff across the
ric metro area with upr 50s NW to mid 70s at the airport. Pt sunny
and warm south of it with temps in the 70s to near 80 while north of
it remains cloudy and cooler with spotty light rain. Temps stuck in
the 50s and 60s.

Latest data moves a trof across pa east this eve. A secondary surge
behind that feature (along with diminishing mixing) should be enough
to push the shallow backdoor bndry south to near the va nc border by
late evening with it stalling out across NRN most nc zones thru the
nite. Thus, trended the grids towards this scenario with skies
becoming ovc with chc light rain. Drizzle and patchy fog after
midnite as the column saturates. Lows in the low-mid 40s north, upr
40s-lwr 50s south.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Models are fairly quick to move the boundary back north as a warm
front fri. Plenty of low level moisture noted to keep low chc
stratiformed pops across the north thru 18z, then the lower levels
dry out a bit as the fa becomes warmed sectored. Another tricky temp
forecast as the numbers will depend on how much Sun occurs. Highs in
the low-mid 50s north, upr 50s-mid 60s south, 65-70 across NRN nc.

Fa remains in the warm sectored Fri nite. Not much support for pcpn
but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnite. Lows 45-50
north, in the 50s south.

Offshore ridge builds back into the area sat. Moisture slowly incrs
with the best support for pcpn across the NW Sat aftrn and eve. Otw,
pt suny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the low-mid 60s ERN shore
with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat nite in the lwr 50s-lwr 60s.

The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the
fropa in the aftrn eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture
across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the piedmont.

Will keep the chc pops after 18z for now. Highs in the 60s ern
shore, 70s west of the bay.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting
a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be
slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel
to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops
sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to
see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely
pops both Sun night into Monday. However, given that the rain will
be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain
showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry
canadian high pressure will build across the middle atlantic by
Tuesday, then offshore wed. The next chance for showers will be
Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a
deepening mississippi valley low pressure system.

Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be
above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in
the upper 30s mid 40s.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
The backdoor cold front will slowly sag south to near the va nc
border this eve then stall across NRN nc tonight before lifting
north as a warm front fri. Stratus stubborn to scour out south
of the front ATTM but do expect MVFRVFR CIGS across sern taf
sites next svrl hrs ahead of the fropa. To the north at ric sby
MVFR CIGS lwr to ifr by 00z along with some fog drizzle for the
rest of the forecast period. Ifr conditions expected at all taf
sites later tonight through Fri morn along with patchy drizzle
and fog.

Outlook: the front moves north of the area Fri night with the
offshore ridge dominating Sat into sun. The next front will
cross the area Sunday night, with another period of cig vsby
restrictions possible during this period.

Marine
The front is currently bisecting the marine area as it has been slow
to move southward this afternoon due to the strong ridge to the
south. However, after sunset, expect the front to rapidly move
southward, reaching the southern coastal waters by later this
evening. All marine areas should have northerly winds tonight. Will
maintain small craft conditions across the northern coastal waters
tonight due to wind and seas, however even the bay will will choppy
with north winds around 15kt.

Expect the front to surge back north of the waters on Friday Friday
evening , with southerly flow developing and continuing through the
weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday, southerly winds may allow
for small craft conditions again over the coastal waters ahead of a
cold front. This cold front will pass through the waters on Monday
with NW winds expected Tue Wed as canadian high pressure builds into
the ohio tennessee valley regions.

Climate
Record highs and record high mins were set at richmond,
salisbury, and elizabeth city Wed 2 21. At norfolk, the record
high was tied and the record high min was set. See rer products
for details. For today 2 22, record highs and record high mins
will be possible and these values are listed below.

**please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar
date values so the the records are not complete this morning
(temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight).

* date: today Thu 2 22
* site: record high... Record high min
* ric: 73 (1985) 52 (1913)
* orf: 77 (1937) 55 (1878)
* sby: 70 (1997) 50 (1996)
* ecg: 77 (2003) 56 (1997)
very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2 24 and Sun 2 25.

* record highs
* site: Sat 2 24... ... Sun 2 25
* ric: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)
* orf: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)
* sby: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)
* ecg: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Ajb mpr
marine... Mrd
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi46 min NE 15 G 17 46°F 1032.6 hPa (+1.8)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi36 min ENE 14 G 16 45°F 1032.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi46 min 47°F 49°F1033.5 hPa (+2.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi46 min NNE 9.9 G 12 48°F 44°F1031.8 hPa (+1.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi46 min NNE 15 G 19 47°F 52°F1031.9 hPa (+1.7)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi46 min NE 11 G 14
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi46 min NE 9.9 G 9.9 45°F 42°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 31 mi36 min W 14 G 16 46°F 1030.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi136 min NNE 4.1 49°F 1032 hPa46°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi46 min NE 8 G 11 48°F 51°F1031.5 hPa (+1.7)
CPVM2 37 mi46 min 44°F 44°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi46 min 45°F 1033.6 hPa (+3.2)
NCDV2 43 mi46 min N 4.1 G 7 51°F 49°F1031.6 hPa (+2.5)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi46 min NNE 6 G 9.9 49°F 47°F1033.5 hPa (+3.5)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi71 minNNE 92.50 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1032.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi54 minN 136.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F96%1031.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi69 minNNE 67.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1032.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi53 minN 85.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F93%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S6S7S7S75S4N3SE6N4N10NE7E6E10
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1 day agoS6
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2 days agoS7--S5S6SE6SE5S6S5S7S7S9
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SE12SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland
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Smithville Road Bridge
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Thu -- 02:54 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:30 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.100.20.50.91.21.41.51.51.310.70.50.30.30.50.81.11.31.41.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:07 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:35 PM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.50.70.60.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.20.30.20.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.