Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quantico, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 2:34PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1117 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1117 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight. A warm front will pass through the area Thursday before a cold front approaches Friday. The cold front will pass through Friday night into early Saturday. A pressure trough will remain nearby for later Saturday and Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quantico, VA
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location: 38.47, -77.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 160750
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
350 am edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
An area of high pressure will build into the region through
tonight. A warm front will move northward Thursday into
Thursday night followed by a cold front that should pass through
the region Friday night into early Saturday. Weak high pressure
will build into the area during the rest of the weekend.

Near term through today
A combination of light winds, lingering low level moisture, and
wet soils has led to the formation of dense fog and low
stratus late last night and early this morning. Therefore a
dense fog advisory is in effect for much of the region through 9
am for visibilities down to near zero in some locations.

Ridge of surface high pressure moving eastward through the great
lakes early this morning will then crest near the region this
afternoon. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and
partly- mostly sunny skies once the fog and low clouds break,
which may take until late morning (11 am or so) in some
locations. There has been a couple of isolated showers this
morning as well towards the higher elevations, but the vast
majority of the area is not expected to see any measurable
rainfall. Temperatures will be slow to rise with clouds fog
early, but should still reach the upper 80s to locally near 90f
by late in the afternoon.

Short term tonight through Friday night
For tonight, surface high will be slow to exit so another night
of light winds and mostly clear skies will be in store. We'll
be one day removed from significant rainfall however, so while
areas of fog and stratus are likely again, coverage density
should be less than this morning. Lows from the mid 60s to low
70s.

High pressure shifts offshore for Thursday allowing for the
return of southerly flow. As an approaching low pressure
system lifts through the great lakes, a warm front will lift
northward and into the region by Thursday afternoon. This and a
developing area of broad low level convergence will serve as a
focus for shower thunderstorm development on Thursday. Mlcape
south west of the warm front is currently progged to be in the
1000-2000 j kg range, which is quite sufficient for thunderstorm
development. Further examination of the modeled forecast
soundings would indicate potential for both an isolated severe
and isolated flood threat, with the presence of a low level
boundary, directional shear along the boundary, 0-6km shear of
around 30 knots, and precipitable water values 2-2.25 inches.

Initial focus likely to be west of i-95, with propagation
eastward during the evening overnight hours. Highs Thursday
should reach into the mid upper 80s, with lows Thursday night in
the low to mid 70s.

The area of low pressure will push into southern canada on Friday,
with its trailing cold front entering the mid-atlantic states
during the day. This will serve as another focus for scattered
showers thunderstorms during the day Friday. A potential severe
threat will exist again on Friday, as temperatures and low
level moisture surge out ahead of the front, leading to the
development of 1500-2500 j kg of mlcape, with 30-35 knots of
shear moving overhead. Highs upper 80s to around 90f. Convection
will wane Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Weak high pressure will build toward the area for Saturday and
Sunday. Most areas will remain dry with less humidity.

However... A pressure trough will likely be hung up near the
chesapeake bay into southern maryland. Humidity may remain
across these areas along with an isolated shower t-storm... But
much of the time will be dry.

High pressure will move offshore for Monday and Tuesday. Hotter
and more humid conditions are expected.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Widespread reductions in both ceilings and visibilities expected
this morning in fog and low stratus, with lifr ifr forecast at
all TAF sites. Dca has lowest risk of dense surface fog.

Conditions will gradually improve during the morning hours, with
vfr returning at most locations by 15z.

Potential for additional fog stratus exists tonight, although
coverage density should be less than this morning.

Next weather concerns will be the possibility of scattered
showers thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday, where brief
reductions of both ceiling visibility are possible.

High pressure should bringVFR conditions most of the time for
Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected through Thursday. South winds will
then be on the increase Thursday night and Friday ahead of a
frontal system, and small craft advisory conditions are
possible. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
also possible both Thursday and Friday, mainly in the
afternoon evening, and special marine warnings may be necessary.

A pressure trough will remain near the waters during the
weekend. Wind speeds should be below SCA criteria for the most
part since the gradient will be week. A return flow from the
south will develop early next week as high pressure moves
offshore.

Tides coastal flooding
A light northerly flow will allow for anomalies to drop early
this morning. However... Southerly winds will increase for
Thursday through Friday night ahead of a cold front. Minor tidal
flooding is possible near high tide Thursday night into Friday
morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning for
sensitive areas.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for dcz001.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for mdz003>006-
011-013-014-016-503>508.

Va... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for vaz025>031-
037>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Wv... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl mm
marine... Bjl mm
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 16 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 31 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 81°F 78°F1015.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 37 mi114 min Calm 60°F 1016 hPa60°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi54 min NW 8 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi54 min WNW 5.1 G 6 79°F 80°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 77°F 1016.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 7 77°F 1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA3 mi28 minS 48.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F75°F90%1016.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA11 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair79°F76°F90%1017.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA17 mi49 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F75°F100%1016.6 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA19 mi86 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F74°F97%1016.8 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi28 minESE 39.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W4W4NE3NE7NE4NE4NE5CalmNW6NW5NW5NW7NW5NW6NW6NW5NW4NW3NW3CalmS5S4
1 day agoCalmSE5SE4E4E4NE3NE3E4E4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmNW4E4NW3SE5S5CalmCalmSW4CalmW4
2 days agoE3--53Calm----Calm--NW5NW6NW5NW4NW4NW5NW5NW6NW6NW5NW5NW4NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Liverpool Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Liverpool Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:39 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:58 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.51.310.70.50.30.20.30.50.91.21.31.41.20.90.60.40.20.20.20.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Potomac River, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:15 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.51.51.310.70.50.30.20.20.40.81.11.21.31.20.90.60.40.20.20.20.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.