Monday, May21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:16PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 732 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front stalled to the south and west of the waters tonight will slowly return north as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead Thursday. High pressure will move offshore Friday through the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, MD
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location: 38.49, -76.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220049
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
849 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

A weak frontal boundary over northern north carolina will lift
back north as a warm front late tonight into Tuesday. A more
pronounced cold front will cross the region on Wednesday,
followed by a period of dry weather Thursday and Friday under
the influence of high pressure.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 845 pm edt Monday...

weak frontal boundary remains just S and SW of the fa late this
eve. Earlier shras and tstms have drifted SW out of the fa the
past few hours. That front will begin to pull back nne late
tonight (into central sections of the fa)... As it does
so... Se winds will aid in spread lower level cloudiness over
most of the local area. Expecting shras and possible isold tstms
to begin to move back NE overnight... Though W heating
done... Stability will take over the eventually limit any tstms
(after midnight). Highest pops W and SW (30-60%) W 20-40% pops
spreading ene after midnight... But not quite to the lower md ern
shore. Lows fromthe u50s-l60s on the ERN shore to the m-u60s

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
As of 330 pm edt Monday...

the front will continue to move northward on Tuesday. This will
likely allow for a dry period at least across the W in the morning.

However, a lee side trough develops during the afternoon. This,
combined with a weak upper wave moving through the w-nw flow aloft
will allow for a line of storms to develop across northern va and
perhaps impact the far northern part of the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon. The winds aloft are in the 35-40kt range
Tuesday afternoon, which may be just enough for some strong wind
gusts with any thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. SPC has placed
northern va into a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, and
this just clips the northern neck and caroline and louisa

This line of showers storms will move through the forecast area
Tuesday evening and will likely diminish after sunset due to loss of
daytime heating. A more pronounced period of showers and storms
are expected late Tue night into Wednesday as the cold front
approaches the area and slowly moves through the area on
Thursday. Best chances for showers storms will be Wed afternoon
due to height falls aloft and decreasing stability along the
frontal zone. There is a marginal risk for severe storms on
Wednesday across the entire area, but the best chance for any
severe weather will likely be across the far southern tier where
the best instability will occur.

The tropical moisture will finally be scoured out with this front,
and Thursday looks to be dry with much lower dew points as high
pressure builds across the region from the nw.

Highs each day will continue in the mid 80s, although Thursday will
be much less humid. Lows continue muggy in the upper 60s low 70s
until Wed night which will see low-mid 60s. &&

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 320 pm edt Monday...

a strong surface ridge and northwest flow aloft with the upper
ridge axis to the west over the mississippi valley will provide
dry weather with moderate temperatures for the beginning of the
extended forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s Friday and
the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s Thursday night and mid to upper 60s Friday night. But
the upper ridge will erode through the holiday weekend with a
gradual increase in moisture as it appears that another area of
low pressure will form in the northeastern gulf of mexico by
Sunday and push more tropical moisture northward into the
region. This could allow for more showers and tropical downpours
for Sunday and again on Monday. The big model difference in the
models is the handling of a backdoor cold front between the 12z
gfs and ECMWF with the GFS pushing the front south through the
area and the ECMWF keeping the boundary well north of the area.

In either case, the chance for showers and some possibly heavy
rainfall exist for the second half of the holiday weekend. If
the GFS is right with the front Monday could be a damp cool
rainy day while the ECMWF would lead to more periodic showers
with some breaks. At this time of year, seems more likely the
for the front to hang north of the area. So have kept the
temperatures up more in the low to mid 80s for Sunday and

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 845 pm edt Monday...

weak frontal boundary remains just S and SW of the fa late this
eve. Earlier shras and tstms have drifted SW out of the fa the
past few hours. That front will begin to pull back nne late
tonight (into central sections of the fa)... As it does
so... Se winds will aid in spread lower level cloudiness over
most of the local area. Right now...VFR NE half of the local
area... Ifr-MVFR CIGS sw. Winds becoming SE over the local area
overnight will lead to increased coverage of ifr-MVFR cigs... And
even possibly 2-4sm fg... ESP near the front as it moves back ne.

Added vcsh to all sites but sby. Continued ifr-MVFR CIGS tue
morning... Then local area enters warm sector W sct-bkn CU and
possible shras-tstms in the afternoon eve.

Mainly afternoon eve shras tstms are possible Wed as a cold
front crosses the local area. Sfc hi pres looks to build in
from the N by Thu and Fri bringing mainlyVFR conditions during
the end of the week.

As of 330 pm edt Monday...

a small craft advisory remains in effect for the lower chesapeake
bay and the lower james river. Observations continue to show a
persistent east wind of around 15 knots with gusts in excess of of
20 knots at times. Choppy conditions can also be expected in these
locations with waves of 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves should begin to
diminish after sunset.

A weak boundary slowly lifts north of the waters overnight and into
Tuesday. Winds will turn to the SE and then S or SW as the boundary
lifts to the north. Winds Tuesday will range from 5 to 15 knots,
with seas of 2 to 3 feet and waves of 1 to 2 feet. A cold front
crosses the region on Wednesday and turns the winds to the W and nw
around 5 to 10 knots through Thursday morning. High pressure builds
into the area Thursday through Friday leading to generally tranquil
marine conditions.

As of 1115 am edt Monday...

flood warnings continue for the james and appomattox river
basins. Mattoax is now forecast reach moderate flooding by early
Wednesday morning. Warnings also continue for the meherrin and
nottoway rivers (at stony creek), as well as portions of the
chowan basin. Additional flood warnings continue for the
chickahominy, south anna and mattaponi rivers, as well as the
pocomoke river in md. See flwakq or flsakq for more details.

As of 355 am edt Monday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 20 remains at 8.84"
(already ranks as 5th wettest may on record). (precipitation
records date back to 1880)
* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 20 is now 8.52" (already
ranks as 3rd wettest may on record). (precipitation records
date back to 1906)

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Alb mrd
near term... Alb mrd
short term... Mrd
long term... Ess
aviation... Alb lkb
marine... Ajb
hydrology... Akq
climate... Akq

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi54 min 69°F 73°F1022.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 11 mi48 min S 13 G 16 68°F 1021.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi48 min S 8.9 G 9.9 67°F 70°F1021.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi48 min SE 6 G 7 69°F 77°F1022 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi66 min S 16 G 17 69°F 69°F1021.6 hPa (+0.0)63°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi48 min S 8.9 G 8.9
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi156 min SSE 4.1 75°F 1020 hPa63°F
CPVM2 36 mi48 min 70°F 64°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi48 min 71°F 1020.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi48 min SSE 6 G 7 68°F 74°F1021.3 hPa
NCDV2 45 mi48 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 71°F 78°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi71 minSE 410.00 mi68°F59°F73%1021.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD17 mi74 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F57°F66%1021.4 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD21 mi69 minSE 310.00 miFair64°F55°F73%1022 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD23 mi76 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F57°F61%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmNW4CalmN4N5NE7NE6NE63NE5NE12NE10E9NE73346CalmSW10
1 day ago6
2 days agoE11

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:04 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:42 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.