Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:16PM Sunday March 18, 2018 7:27 PM EDT (23:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 434 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain or snow.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Snow likely or a chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Waves 3 ft... Subsiding to 2 ft. Snow or rain likely.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 434 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight. Low pressure will pass through the tennessee valley on Monday, with another coastal low developing off the mid-atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday. A second coastal low may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday before high pressure finally begins to build in again toward the end of the week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the waters Monday night through Wednesday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, MD
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location: 38.49, -76.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181953
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
353 pm edt Sun mar 18 2018

High pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast tonight. A pair
of low pressure systems will impact the region late Monday
through Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area late in
the week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Sfc high moves off the coast. Mostly clr skies expected tonight
except for some incrg clouds across the piedmont late. Lows in
the low-mid 30s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
The high pushes farther off the coast Monday allowing moisture to
overspread the area due to the onshore flow. Lower levels remain dry
thru about 18z so look for skies to become mstly cldy to cldy. Some
overrunning light rain (a few hundredths at best) progged to develop
across the piedmont after 18z. Highest pops (30-50%) west of the i95
corridor. Highs 45-50 near the coast, in the 50s west of the bay.

A complex weather system will make for an unsettled mid week period.

Will lean toward a GFS solution as it seems the NAM generates to
much cold air in the boundary layer. Inland concerns range from
mdt to lclly hvy rainfall along with sct tstrms across the se
mon night, rain mixing with or changing to wet snow tues night wed
(with minor accumls). Coastal issues range form gale force wind
gusts tues to possible coastal flooding thru the mid week period.

Stay tuned.

First event occurs Mon night as a potent shortwave races eastward
from the tn valley Mon evening, then across the local area mon
night. Rather impressive lift progged out ahead of the apprchg low
to produce a widespread rain across the fa. Will carry categorical
pops all areas with some moderate to heavy rainfall possible after
midnight. QPF amounts could exceed an inch of some areas. Again,
following the gfs, a triple pt low will track NE across NE nc and
sern late Monday night then out into the vacapes Tue morning. Thus,
can't rule thunder across those areas late Mon night. Lows from the
mid 30s north to mid 40s south.

The sfc low deepens as it tracks across the vacapes tues morning,
then pushes farther out to sea tues afternoon as weak high pressure
tries to nudge in from the north. Will carry likely to categorical
pops tues morning (lclly hvy rain erly ovr the lwr md ERN shore),
except chc pops far sw, as the best lift shifts east prior to 18z.

Chc pops north and east with slight chc pops SW tues afternoon.

Chilly with highs 40-45 north, 50-55 SE coastal areas.

Still much uncertainity on how the systm evolves tues night and wed.

The first low progged to pull away from the coast Tue night with the
next upr level systm crossing the area wed. This upr level systm
pulls in enuf cold air to allow p-type issues both periods. Chc pops
tue evening ramp up to like after midnight as the moisture from the
upr lvl systm crosses the mts. Thicknesses suggest a changeover
from a rain snow mix to mostly snow across the nw, a buffer area
of mixed ran and snow on a line from oxb-phf-akq-emp with a cold
rain across the se. Temps drop into the lwr 30s north and west,
mid-upr 30s se.

Wed could be a repeat of last mon's event in where it will take pcpn
intensity to dynamically cool the column to get snow to accum with
temps AOA freezing. Despite thicknesses supporting all snow, will
keep chc to low end likely pops and go with a snow to rain snow
mix across most of the fa except remaining rain along the outer
banks. It very well may stay snow inland, but sfc temps along with
pcpn intensity will determine how much can accumulate. Given the
synoptic situation, went lower than guidance with highs in the mid
30s north, upr 30s to near 40 se.

Accumulation wise, expect that the best snow accumulations Tue night
will be across the NW with up to an inch (from near a fvx-lku line
by 12z wed. Trace to less than an inch as far east as a sby-ptb-avc
line. Wed accumls rather problematic. Will generally go with a 1-2
inch event mainly NW of a sby-ric-avc line for now.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Deep anomalous trough aloft will remain near the E coast thu-fri
before slowly shifting E next weekend. Meanwhile... Blocking upper
level high will remain INVOF hudson bay. Using a blend of
gfs wpc ECMWF through the period. Expecting a continuation of (much)
below temperatures Wed night thu-sun. Lingering clouds isold-sct
ra sn Wed eve (esp toward the coast)... Then dry cool wx thu-fri.

Next lo pres system develops INVOF nrn plains by fri... Then tracks e
(undercutting the upper level high N of the great lakes) through the
mid-atlantic NE CONUS next weekend... Bringing increased clouds pops.

Lows Wed night in the u20s W to the m30s right at the coast. Highs
thu ranging through the 40s. Lows Thu night in the u20s w... M30s at
the coast. Highs Fri around 50f inland... M40s at the coast. Lows fri
night in the l30s inland... U30s-around 40f at the coast. Highs sat
in the u40s-l50s inland... M-u40s at the coast. Highs Sun in the 40s
n to m50s s.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Vfr conditions prevail across the region as high prs builds in
from the nw. N-ne winds generally below 10 kts. Skc along with
light and variable winds continue through 12z mon. High level
clouds overspread the area Mon mrning and afternoon ahead of
the next systm apprchg from the sw. Any pcpn with this system
hold off until after 18z mon.

Outlook: another window of flight restrictions Mon night thru
wed as a pair of low pressure systems impact the area. Rain for
the most part may mix with or change to wet snow by Wed at ric
and sby. Gusty winds develop along the coast Tue and Wed as a
coastal storm develops.

Winds and seas continue to relax across the region this afternoon as
high pressure builds across the mid-atlantic states. This area of
high pressure will slowly move off the coast and weaken tonight and
early Monday afternoon. But it will provide benign conditions
across the waters tonight and Monday.

Beginning late Monday afternoon conditions will begin to
deteriorate as the next storm system ejects out of the southern
plains into the tennessee river valley. Initially, will see the
flow turn serly and still remain rather light in the 10 - 15 kt
range. But by Tuesday morning, will begin to see sfc low
development over the nc piedmont with that low sliding NE and off
the virginia beach coast by mid day Tuesday. At this low
intensifies, the winds will increase quickly, especially over the
northern coastal waters were gale conditions are expected. South
and west of the surface low, the conditions should remain at sca
levels. This initially low will head out to see on Tuesday night,
but as the upper level low enters the region on Wednesday, a new
surface low will develop off the virginia coast and another round of
gale force conditions are likely across the northern coastal waters
while SCA conditions with 25 to 30 kt winds are likely over the
remainder of the area. Seas will build pretty quickly as well on
Tuesday into Wednesday with seas getting up to 8 to 12 ft on the
coastal waters. For now, have maintained the gale watch as gale
conditions are not likely to be reached before Tuesday morning, but
did extended the watch through 00z Wednesday and depending on the
timing of the gap between the two sfc lows may end up with one long
gale through Wednesday.

By Thursday morning, the sfc low will be moving off the coast and be
a could hundred miles SE of CAPE cod. This will allow conditions to
begin to relax with NW flow continuing into Friday when high
pressure finally moves over the area.

Tides coastal flooding
Low pressure approaches from the tn valley on Monday, and
intensifies just off the coast on Tue before pulling off to the
ne. Secondary area of low pressure lags back off the SE coast
and tracks NE off the mid-atlc coast Wed wed night. This pattern
will allow for a strong and persistent NE flow into much of the
local area from late Mon into wed, leading to building tidal
departures and the potential for at least minor coastal flooding
over locations adjacent to the lower bay and the atlc coast
from ocean city to currituck nc. Current forecast projections
give the greatest chance for flooding on Wed as the anomalies
will take awhile to build Mon night through tue. If the
system(s) were to slow down, there is some potential for
moderate flooding by Wed but that remains rather uncertain at
this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Jdm mpr
long term... Alb
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ess
tides coastal flooding... Akq

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi39 min 50°F 43°F1014.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi37 min S 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 1014.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 11 mi39 min 45°F 1014.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi39 min 46°F 43°F1013.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi39 min 47°F 46°F1014.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi27 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 44°F 42°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi57 min SSE 7 G 8
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi117 min SE 6 55°F 1013 hPa26°F
CPVM2 36 mi39 min 44°F 35°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi39 min 46°F 44°F1014 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi39 min 47°F 1012.8 hPa
NCDV2 45 mi39 min 51°F 44°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair52°F15°F24%1013.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD17 mi95 minSE 710.00 miFair47°F28°F50%1013.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD21 mi50 minE 310.00 miFair50°F23°F35%1014.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD23 mi42 minN 010.00 miClear52°F14°F22%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3W4N4CalmW4CalmCalmNW6N8N9N6N3N5NW5N10CalmNW10
1 day agoNW12
2 days agoN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7W5NW6NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:36 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:10 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:50 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.