Saturday, December16, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1231 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Diminishing to around 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1231 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build south of the waters through the weekend. A backdoor cold front will approach from the north Sunday, then return north as a warm front Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, MD
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location: 38.49, -76.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161759
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1259 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

High pressure builds across the southeast states today, and
moves off the carolina coast Sunday and Monday. The local area
remains in between weak low pressure to the south and strong low
pressure over canada on Tuesday. A cold front crosses the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
The current analysis indicates surface high pressure centered
from the gulf coast ene to along the nc coast, with low pressure
now well off the mid-atlc and southern new england coast. The
sky is mostly sunny across most of the area with the exception
of some mid and high clouds from the NRN neck to the lower md
ern shore. Temperatures have moderated into the 30s after early
mornings lows that ranged through the 20s (with even a few
upper teens). For today, the sfc high will slowly build ene and
become centered from al to southern nc, bringing a wsw low
level flow to the cwa. Some mid clouds will continue to brush
through the northern 1 2 of the area through 21z so cloud
coverage should avg out partly sunny north and mostly sunny
south. Highs today will range from the upper 40s north and near
the coast to the lower 50s sw. Mainly clear with a light wind
tonight and will side with the cold edge of guidance under good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will avg in the mid-upper
20s inland to the lower 30s along the SE va NE nc coast.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Sfc high pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak sfc trough
pushes across the great lakes. Some upper level SRN stream
moisture will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in
increasing clouds Sunday (genly mostly cloudy by aftn). Highs
Sunday range from around 50f N to the mid 50s s. High pressure
remains offshore Monday. A dampening SRN stream wave pushes into
the tennessee valley by Monday aftn. Mostly cloudy Sun evening
with a slight chc pop md ERN shore, otherwise measurable precip
chances look too low for a mention in the gridded fcst. Decreasing
clouds later Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid upper
30s N to the low 40s se. Genly partly sunny and milder Monday
with highs in the upper 50s N to lower 60s s. The southern
stream system to pass by to our south Mon night Tue ahead of a
stronger cold front well off to our nw. Will carry just a 20%
pop over the south Mon night and into all areas for tue. Quite
warm Tue with highs in the 60s (potentially close to 70 f
depending on how much Sun prevails).

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
The medium range period to be dominated by an upper ridge
anchored from the gulf of mexico to the bahamas, with a fairly
progressive split flow regime over most of the conus. This
setup will keep any significant cold air locked up well to our
north across canada and the upper midwest. Latest gfs ECMWF are
in good agreement at pushing a cold front through the local area
tue night into wed, allowing for a dry and somewhat cooler day
wed with highs mainly 50-55 f. A weakening southern stream
system is progged to lift ene over the southern states Wed night
and off the SE coast Thu (the ECMWF and gem being farther north
and stronger with this feature than the gfs). For Wed night,
have trended clouds and pops up a little bit from previous
forecast to 20% central zones and 30% in nc, but still appears
as if most of the deeper moisture stays south. This looks to be
an all rain event ATTM with lows in areas with pops mainly in
the mid upper 30s. Drying out Thu with high temperatures
remaining close to seasonal averages in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Temperatures trend back up above climate normals for Friday
with winds swinging back out of the southwest.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure is centered over al ga sc as of 18z and this is
resulting in a 5-10kt wsw wind under a primarily sunny sky aside
from a few patches of high clouds. High pressure becomes
centered over the carolina coast tonight with a mostly clear sky
and a calm to very light wind. High pressure slides offshore
Sunday and Sunday night as a weak trough approaches from the
wsw. This will bring a period of bkn-ovc mid high clouds Sunday
aftn into Sunday evening. High pressure remains near the
southeast coast Monday through Tuesday withVFR conditions
prevailing along with occasional mid high clouds. Low pressure
passes S of the region Wednesday with high pressure building n
of the region Thursday.

All SCA headlines have been cancelled with this forecast package
with winds down to 10-15 kt over the bay sound and seas over coastal
wtrs down to mainly 2-3 ft. Sfc low pressure rapidly pushes offshore
today as high pressure builds over the SE states. Slight increase in
pressure gradient this evening may lead to winds close to sca
criteria over the bay, but confidence is not high enough ATTM to
issue a headline. Otws, sub-sca conditions over the next few days as
the sfc high slides off the SE coast and low pressure passes well
north of the local area with a lack of any caa.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Ajz lkb
short term... Ajz lkb
long term... Ajb lkb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Mas

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi48 min 44°F 40°F1020.6 hPa (-2.1)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 11 mi48 min WSW 13 G 19 42°F 1020.5 hPa (-2.2)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi38 min SW 16 G 19 43°F 2 ft1020.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi48 min SW 9.9 G 14 43°F 45°F1019.8 hPa (-2.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi48 min SW 13 G 15 41°F 36°F1020.5 hPa (-2.6)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi48 min SSW 14 G 15 41°F 43°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi48 min W 6 G 8.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 32 mi38 min SW 12 G 14 43°F 2 ft1019.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi138 min SSW 8.9 40°F 1021 hPa21°F
CPVM2 36 mi48 min 42°F 27°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi48 min 43°F 1018.6 hPa (-2.5)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi48 min W 9.9 G 15 43°F 40°F1020.5 hPa (-2.3)
NCDV2 45 mi48 min SW 9.9 G 14 44°F 39°F1019.2 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi63 minWSW 1110.00 miFair43°F23°F46%1020 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD17 mi56 minWSW 12 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds44°F21°F40%1020.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD21 mi62 minSW 1210.00 miFair43°F23°F46%1020.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD23 mi58 minSW 1210.00 miClear43°F24°F49%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN8N8N13N8N4N5NW5W4W4SW4CalmSW4CalmSW5W6W4CalmW3CalmCalmS4SW7SW7
1 day agoNW17NW11NW12
2 days agoW14W11W5W6SW3S3S6S7S8S11

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Click for Map
Sat -- 01:28 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM EST     0.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:13 PM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:20 PM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.