Monday, August21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:51PM Monday August 21, 2017 9:39 PM EDT (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:07AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 859 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Tuesday...
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 859 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 212010
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
410 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

High pressure becomes centered off the mid atlantic coast
through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area late Wednesday,
with strong high pressure building north of the area from Thursday
into the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Latest surface analysis centers ~1023mb high pressure just
offshore, resulting in light south to southeast flow over the
local area. A weak wave visible on water vapor and in the rap
analysis is located over the DELMARVA this afternoon. The wave
coupled with increasing moisture, afternoon destabilization, and
a lee thermal trough over the northern piedmont has helped fire
off scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north and
west of richmond. Overall storm strength has been limited due to
westerly flow and modest lapse rates. However, cannot rule out
some gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. Showers and
thunderstorms push northeast through the afternoon and into the
evening hours as the wave pushes offshore. Coverage wanes
tonight with the loss of daytime heating destabilization and
upper level support.

Warm and humid tonight with lows mainly 70-75 f tonight.

Fog stratus possible again tonight over the piedmont into
central virginia, but not expected to be as dense as this

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday
Increasing return flow on the back side of departing high
pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front will result in
warm and humid conditions Tuesday. Highs generally in the low to
mid 90's, cooler along the coast. Dewpoints in the upper 60's
to low 70's will produce heat indices in the 100 to 103 degree
range. While the atmosphere will be quite moist with
precipitable waters around 1.75 inches, warm air aloft, weak
lapse rates, and a lack of appreciable forcing will limit the
convective potential Tuesday afternoon. Will retain silent pops.

Mild Tuesday night with lows in the mid 70's. Clouds increase
across the north ahead of the approaching cold front.

Better forcing arrives along the front Wednesday as a lead wave
drops over the mid-atlantic. The cold front progged to slowly
push across the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Pop's increase during the morning, becoming likely Wednesday
afternoon with the arrival of the better dynamics. The air mass
ahead of the front will become modestly unstable, with mixed-
layer CAPE values progged around 1000-2000 j kg. Deep layer flow
also progged around 25-30 knots as mid level flow increases,
resulting in better organization and overall storm strength. Mid
level lapse rates also improve to around 6 to 6.5 c km. Spc
maintains a marginal risk for severe weather, with damaging
winds and heavy rainfall the main threats. Highs generally in
the mid 80's northwest to around 90 south.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Strong sfc cold front drops south across the area Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Modest ascent accompanies the front within
the rrq of a ~110kt jet over new england, along with pw values to
around 2.0" (around +1 st dev). By Wed evening, have maintained
highest (70% likely) pop across SRN va NE nc, with slight to low end
rain chances by Wed night NW of ric, where drier air arrives first.

Pops across SE portions gradually diminish to 20-40% by Thursday
aftn. Thunder will be maintained into Wednesday evening, with
showers thereafter as stable NE flow prevails in the wake of the
front. Drier air gradually filters in from the NW late Wednesday
night into Thursday with partial clearing across the NRN tier

Thereafter, the late week period will be characterized by the gradual
development of a longwave upper level trough over the eastern united
states for the late week period into next weekend. Meanwhile, broad
1024+ mb surface high pressure builds south over the interior
northeast from great lakes Thursday and Friday, eventually setting
up over new england and ridging down the east coast over the weekend
into early next week.

Resultant e-ne flow will result in markedly cooler and drier
conditions over the region, with early morning lows in the 50s
inland to mid 60s along the coast. Maintained a dry forecast through
the forecast period. High temperatures thu-mon will be at or just
slightly below normal through the period, mainly in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
High pressure has centered offshore early this afternoon, with
flow becoming south to southeast over the area. Scattered to
broken CU has developed over the region, with decks around 3500
to 4500 feet agl. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the piedmont, along a
lee thermal trough. Expect that activity to remain west of the
taf sites this afternoon. Otherwise,VFR conditions prevail with
south to southeast winds at or below 10 knots.

Continued mainly dry tonight and probably will see a little
less in the way of fog low cloud Tue morning as southerly flow
becomes a little stronger. The next cold front approaches the
region wed, and flight restrictions will be possible wed, mainly
in the aftn and through Wed night in showers tstms. Some
showers may linger across SE terminals into Thu morning, but
otherwise improving conditions except with a breezy NE flow near
the coast Thu fri.

Latest surface analysis has a high pressure centered just off the
coast. The high will continue to move out to sea overnight and
Tuesday. A cold front approaches the waters Tuesday night and into
Wednesday morning. The front crosses the area late Wednesday and
moves SE of the area Thursday with high pressure returning for the
remainder of the forecast period. Obs indicate generally S SE winds
of 10 to 15 knots over the waters with waves of 1 to 2 feet and seas
around 2 feet. Winds increase out of the ssw Tuesday through Tuesday
night as the front approaches the waters. Wind speeds may approach
15 to 20 over the chesapeake bay and ocean with seas building to 3
to 4 feet and potentially 5 feet north 20nm out, and waves building
to 2 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed for the
chesapeake bay and northern two ocean zones Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Winds shift to the N NE behind the front late Wednesday
through Thursday around 10 to 15 knots.

Strong surface cold front drops across the waters Wed afternoon and
evening... Pushing well SE of the area during thu. Winds shift to the
n NE behind the front late Wed through Thu around 10 to 15 kt.

Post-frontal, look for onshore (e-ne flow) for the remainder of the
forecast period as high pressure builds nnw of the local area. Winds
increase to 15-20 kt Thu night as a couple of waves move across the
stalled front to the south across the carolinas. Seas will remain
choppy for the late week period into the weekend with the persistent
onshore flow, remaining 3-4 ft northern waters... 4-5ft southern

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb sam
short term... Lkb sam
long term... Ajz mam
aviation... Lkb sam
marine... Ajb mam

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi51 min 80°F 83°F1021.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi51 min SSW 11 G 14 81°F 1020.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi39 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 81°F1 ft1020.9 hPa (+0.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi51 min S 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 83°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi51 min S 11 G 12 82°F 84°F1020.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi39 min SW 9.9 G 9.9 80°F 81°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi51 min S 4.1 G 5.1
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi39 min S 9.7 G 12 82°F 83°F1 ft1019.7 hPa (-0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi129 min WSW 1.9 76°F 1020 hPa70°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi39 min S 3.9 G 5.8 82°F1 ft
CPVM2 36 mi51 min 81°F 78°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi51 min 79°F 1019.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi51 min SSW 6 G 7 81°F 85°F1020.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 47 mi39 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 82°F1020.2 hPa (-0.4)
NCDV2 48 mi51 min SW 13 G 18 77°F 85°F1019.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi51 min SE 4.1 G 7 78°F 82°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1020.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi47 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F75°F93%1020.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi62 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1021 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S66
1 day agoCalmCalmNW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N8N7N5N5N6N7NW7N6N63CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Mon -- 03:32 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:56 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:47 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.