Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:15PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:46AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 732 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft...except around 3 ft near the mouth of the choptank. A chance of showers this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday. High pressure will return late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232140
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
540 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

A weakening cold front slowly push through the local area late
tonight into early Tuesday. A second cold front crosses the area
Tuesday night. High pressure builds across the gulf of mexico
Wednesday and Thursday... As low pressure lingers from the great
lakes to new england.

Near term through Tuesday
Current analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off the coast,
with low pressure deepening along the central appalachians (this
out ahead of parent sfc low over NW oh northern in). Area of
showers overspreading much of the western piedmont continues to
be very slow to progress eastward, while some scattered showers
have developed over interior NE nc. Little overall change in
thinking with the scenario tonight, with a high shear low cape
event expected. The best lift forcing for likely to categorical
pops (60-90%) looks to reach to areas west of i-95 prior to
midnight, then pushing E to the i-95 corridor from 03-06z, and
to the coast from 06-12z. Strong low level jet and effective
shear values to 50-60 kt (and some directional shear through 06z
as sse sfc winds interact with ssw winds in the h85 to h7 layer.

Spc has slgt risk svr for SW parts of the local area (shifting
to the ERN shore Tue morning). If it all comes together, an
isolated severe TSTM with damaging winds and even an isolated
tornado can't be ruled out. However, more likely it will be
just a narrow line of showers with embedded convection with wind
gusts staying below severe limits (to 40-45 mph). Will continue
the mention of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds in the

Expect skies to turn partly to mostly sunny by late morning w
and by late aftn e... And have continued W lowering pop trend
w-e. Still rather warm as winds remain from the sw, with highs
tues in the mid 70s W to the lower 80s SE as cold air lags well
behind off to the NW of the local area.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Latest 12z 23 GFS nam ECMWF remain in good agreement Tue night
into wed, but then show some fairly significant differences
with respect to the strength of the upper low over the eastern
conus by late Wed thu. The ECMWF the deepest farthest south and
the GFS the weakest most progressive and the NAM somewhere in
between but genly a little more like the ecmwf.

Will side a little more to the nam ECMWF consensus, but not
quite to the extent of how deep the upper low digs south. Thus,
the sfc cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is
expected to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any ra
tapers ends at the coast Tue evening. Lows will range from the
upper 40s west of i-95 to the mid upper 50s closer to the coast
by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45f inland and 45f to around
50f by morning. On wed... Local area looks to remain in between
the sfc cold front well offshore and deeper moisture cold pool
aloft to our wnw. Some sct bkn CU will tend to linger due to
some shortwave energy aloft, but should be dry with highs
mainly in the m-u60s (staying a little below mav numbers as
they are based off the warmer gfs). For Wed night thu, siding to
the nam ECMWF allows for some digging SE of the upper level
shortwave energy from the great lakes through the carolinas by
thu morning. Will keep it dry for now, with partly cloudy
conditions. Lows Wed night mainly in the 40s and highs Thu 60-65
f under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Long term period starts off dry Thu night Fri with sfc high pressure
over the immediate area and W SW flow aloft. With light sfc winds
under a clear sky, expect low temps Thu night in the low mid 40s
most of the area, and highs in the mid upr 60s fri. Attention then
turns to an approaching deep upper-level trough sat. Although any
pcpn will likely hold off until after daytime sat, included a 20%
chance of a shower in case the faster ensemble member solutions pan
out. Better chance of rain (40-50%) arrives Sat night Sun as strong
sfc low pressure forms out ahead of the upper-level trough. There is
still plenty of uncertainty over the track of this low, but the
possibility is there for moderate to heavy rain sun. High temps in
the mid upper 60s Sat drop to the upr 50s to mid 60s sun.

Aviation 22z Monday through Saturday
Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach fm the
west this evening, then the actual cold front will gradually
cross the region and move offshore later tonight into tue
evening. Increasing SE then S winds expected this evening thru
tue morning ahead of the front, with showers and possible tstms
moving thru the CWA later this evening into Tue morning. SE or s
winds 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt possible during this time
period, with higher gusts possible in stronger showers or tstms.

This front will bring the potential for MVFR ifr conditions in
showers and lower cigs. MainlyVFR conditions expected later tue
aftn evening through fri.

Previous marine headlines remain in place ahead of an approaching
cold front. Decided to put all headlines in effect with this package
with SCA conditions expected to commence over all wtrs within 12 hr.

The SCA is for 15-20 kt southerly winds over the rivers sound and 15-
25 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt over the bay and ocean. Waves up
to 4 ft over the bay with seas over the ocean up to 7-8 ft. A trough
of low pressure ahead of the cold front slides through the area
early tue, with the pressure gradient relaxing a bit into the day
tue and winds decreasing to below SCA thresholds. Main cold front
crosses the area Tue night with sub-sca NW winds expected behind the
front into wed. Will maintain the SCA over the ocean through the day
wed due to a prolonged period of 5 ft seas. Lighter winds and sub-
sca conditions into Thu and Fri with sfc high pressure over the

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz635>638.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Tuesday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Tuesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652-

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Mas
aviation... Lkb tmg
marine... Ajb mas

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi53 min 71°F 68°F1015.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi53 min SSE 24 G 27 71°F 1014.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi43 min S 21 G 27 73°F 1013.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi53 min SE 19 G 22 71°F 70°F1013.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi53 min SE 18 G 22 71°F 69°F1014.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi83 min SE 20 G 23 72°F 68°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi53 min SSE 21 G 23
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi43 min SE 19 G 23 72°F 1012.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi53 min ESE 13 69°F 1013 hPa64°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi43 min ESE 16 G 21 71°F 1012.8 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi53 min 72°F 68°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi53 min 71°F 1013.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi53 min S 18 G 23 73°F 68°F1013.3 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 47 mi43 min SE 14 G 18 70°F 1014.4 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi53 min SE 15 G 19 71°F 69°F1011.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi53 min ESE 8 G 13 72°F 67°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi38 minSE 1310.00 miOvercast72°F64°F78%1014.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi31 minSSE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1013.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi33 minSSE 12 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F78%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E4E4SE5SE9SE5SE7SE12S15SE9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33S6SE9SE8SE5SE6S5CalmSE5SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5E5W5W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Mon -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.