Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calvert Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:21PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:14 AM EST (10:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 340 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 5 ft. Rain.
Today..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Becoming W 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 340 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front over the ohio valley will cross the waters this afternoon as low pressure passes through the region. A reinforcing front will push through the waters on Friday, with high pressure transiting the area through the weekend. Small craft advisories are likely Friday and Friday night, and may be required Saturday night and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calvert Beach, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240905
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
405 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the ohio valley will cross the
mid-atlantic by this afternoon. Another cold front will cross
the region Friday. High pressure will follow for this weekend.

Low pressure may affect the region early next week.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis depicts a warm front snaking east to west over
the cwa, with a typical cool damming wedge east of the blue
ridge and west of the fall line. Surface low pressure developing
along the cold front will slide eastward along this warm front,
more or less, as the day progresses, providing focus for heavier
rain and potentially an embedded squall line. While a period of
heavier rain is more certain, hence the flood watch (see
hydrology section for more details), the squall line threat is a
bit more uncertain. Our wind advisory for this morning is based
on this potential, however, as with the rain falling across the
region, winds will have trouble mixing down without a strong
forcing mechanism such as the aforementioned squall line. This
line may ultimately form right on the main cold front itself, so
we may need to adjust the advisory timing based on it as we get
a firmer grip. Right now the front looks likely to clear the cwa
by early afternoon, but there remains some uncertainty here.

By afternoon, the front is through, but pressure rises may
result in continued gusty winds after the rain ends,
particularly across the ridges and in north-central md. Thus,
have expanded extended wind advisory for these areas for the
afternoon hours. Winds should start coming down fast by sunset,
however.

Speaking of things that will be dropping fast, temperatures will
also plumet, with highs this morning approaching 60 and temps
likely back towards 40 by evening. However, compared to the drop
and wind combintation we saw Sunday, this should not be quite
as severe.

As high pressure slowly builds in tonight, upslope flow likely
keeps snow showers going along the allegheny front, but
elsewhere, winds will slowly diminish and it should remain
mostly dry. Lows generally below freezing.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Another front will cross the region Friday. It could bring a few
snow showers with it, though most guidance presently looks dry.

Will continue to monitor this potential. Otherwise, its just a
reinforcing shot of cold, dry air, and in fact the upslope snow
showers along the allegheny front should diminish behind this
boundary.

Dry high pressure should then dominate Friday night through
Saturday night, aside from some upslope snow showers along the
allegheny front. It will be cold, but not particularly severe,
at least when compared to last Monday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
An upper level low north of the great lakes and deep layered
troughing will reside along and north of the area Sunday. The
trough will dig a bit southward during the day on Sunday as it
does begin to migrate eastward, and at the surface a cold front
will stall just to our north. This may deliver some light
rain snow showers west of the blue ridge Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night, as clouds increase during this period. Highs will
top out at or just above normal on Sunday, ranging from the
middle 30s to middle 40s, with lows Sunday night in the 20s
everywhere to near 30 degrees in the cities.

With high pressure over the western atlantic, light southerly
flow will bring temperatures once again near normal on Monday,
with dry conditions prevailing. Low pressure will near the great
lakes Monday night, stretching a cold front into the ohio
valley. This will promote an increase in cloud cover Monday
night, with that southerly flow increasing, temperatures will be
above normal in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Precipitation
associated with the approaching cold front will likely hold off
until the day on Tuesday as a large upper low sinks southward
from canada. As the surface low tracks well to our north and
west, we will reside on the warm side as the cold front moves
into the area Tuesday. Colder air will not be far off to our
west, so carrying rain snow chances west of the blue ridge
during the day Tuesday, with a chance of rain likely east of the
mountains. The cold front is progged to press through the area
Tuesday evening, bringing an end to any precipitation as dry
northwesterly flow takes hold.

Cold air advection really takes hold Wednesday and Wednesday
night as canadian high pressure spills in to the central us.

Upslope snow showers expected during this time with gusty
northwest winds prevailing. Temperatures will run below normal
for late january, with highs on Wednesday in the 20s 30s, and
lows Wednesday night projected to rival the recent brief cold
snap we just saw, with single digits and teens area wide. This
will once again bring wind chill concerns to the region, with
single digits to teens wind chills on Wednesday, and single
digit to below zero wind chills possible Wednesday night.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Rain, low level wind shear, low vis and CIGS are the order of
the morning. One big question, however, is just how much wind
mixes to the surface this morning. At present, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable. If a convective line, as shown by
some meso guidance, can get going and cross the region later
this morning, then strong gusts can reach the surface during the
rain this morning - if this doesn't happen, gusts likely stay
below 30 knots for the most part until the rain departs.

Gusty winds also likely behind the front, but strongest of these
likely confined to md terminals. Otherwise,VFR should dominate
this afternoon through Saturday night, though a stray snow
shower could cross the region Friday with a secondary front.

Vfr conditions expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure
resides over the western atlantic with mainly dry conditions and
light south southwesterly winds prevailing at the terminals. A
few snow showers may cross the mountains on Sunday, with any
impacts causing brief subVFR conditions relegated to mrb. Low
pressure will pass to the north and west of the terminals late
Monday night, as its associated cold front remains over the ohio
valley. SubVFR conditions possible at mrb late Monday night in
snow showers, but all other terminals remaining dry withVFR
conditions.

Marine
Strong southerly flow resulting in widespread SCA gusts so far.

Some meso guidance continues to indicate a convective line will
develop within the wider band of rain, which could bring
stronger gale force gusts down to the surface this morning -
thus, gale warning remains in effect. After the rain ends and
cold front blasts through, we have another opportunity for
gales, especially across the northern bay waters. After that,
winds should gradually subside back to SCA by nightfall and
below SCA by early Friday morning. Another front crossing the
waters likely brings SCA back later Friday, and the gradient may
remain up on Saturday resulting in more SCA gusts.

Sca conditions will be possible on Sunday with high pressure
over the western atlantic and southerly flow prevailing. Sub sca
breezes out of the south southwest anticipated Sunday night
through Monday night as high pressure continues to linger over
the east coast.

Hydrology
Latest guidance has honed in with the heaviest rain (a bit above
1 inch on average) focused on the areas already under a flood
watch, so felt no significant need to expand the watch as
inherited. The areas with heaviest rain are likely those which
can get into the warm sector and take most advantage of the
warmer, more moist air flowing up from the south. Otherwise,
same concerns apply with saturated soils, some snow melt and
partly frozen soils.

Several flood warnings and flood watches are already out for
some rivers - see the individual watches and warnings for
details. Additional flood watches and warnings for the rivers
may be necessary depending on just how much rain actually falls.

With several dry days ahead after today, the flood risk should
drop for a time.

Tides coastal flooding
While no tidal flooding is currently forecast, we are expecting
anomalies to continue to increase today as strong southerly
flow prevails. This will continue to bring a threat for minor
tidal flooding should anomalies rise quicker than currently
forecast. Strong west northwest flow tonight and Friday will
deliver decreasing anomalies headed into the weekend, thus no
concerns for flooding at this time.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for dcz001.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for mdz004-501.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for mdz005-006-011-
503>508.

Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for mdz004>006-011-
013-014-016-503>508.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for mdz013-014-
016>018.

Va... Flood watch until 11 am est this morning for vaz025-036-503-
504-508.

Wind advisory until 4 am est early this morning for vaz503.

Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for vaz503.

High wind warning until 4 am est early this morning for vaz508.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz508.

Flood watch until 1 pm est this afternoon for vaz037>040-050-
051-507.

Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for vaz052>056-501-
502-505-506.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for vaz052>057-502-
506.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz507.

Wv... Wind advisory until 4 am est early this morning for wvz505.

Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for wvz501-503-505.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Friday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight est
tonight for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Bkf
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm
hydrology... Rcm
tides coastal flooding... Bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi57 min S 19 G 20 43°F 1007.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 13 mi57 min SE 12 G 13 48°F 39°F1006.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 22 mi165 min SSE 7 46°F 1008 hPa45°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi57 min 1006.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 25 mi63 min SSE 14 G 15
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 28 mi75 min SE 23 G 24 47°F 38°F1006 hPa (-4.6)47°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi57 min SSE 14 G 16 43°F 1007.9 hPa
NCDV2 31 mi57 min SSE 13 G 17 1004.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi57 min 48°F 1005 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi57 min 50°F 50°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi57 min S 8.9 G 11 1006.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi57 min S 11 G 16 55°F 35°F1004.1 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD13 mi32 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1006.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi83 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W3CalmCalmN5N4CalmNW3CalmCalmSE3S4CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmS4S3S4S6S5S5S4
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Maryland
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:41 AM EST     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:01 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-00.20.50.70.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.60.91.11.10.90.60.30.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Thu -- 02:22 AM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:22 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:24 PM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:46 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:04 PM EST     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.