Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calvert Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:16PMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 132 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely . Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will dominate over the waters through Thursday before shifting off the new england coast on Friday. A low pressure system will approach from the west over the weekend, and a weak area of low pressure may move near the coast. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calvert Beach, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190032
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
832 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes will move to new england by
Friday. Developing low pressure in the midwest will approach the
area this weekend.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
High pressure will continue building across the northeastern us
through the evening and overnight hours providing the region
with cool, dry weather. Much of the daytime cumulus have
dissipated with mostly clear skies out there this evening. Did
allow for continuation redevelopment of some scattered strato-
cu during the overnight hours under the subsidence inversion as
some higher-resolution guidance depicting this. However, no
sensible impact expected. Some patchy fog also possible in the
favored valleys. Lows in the 50s 60s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
The ridge of high pressure will remain centered north of the
area Thursday through Friday... Sliding slowly toward and then
off the new england coast. That will affect wind direction, but
little else. There is still the potential for a few diurnal
cumulus tomorrow, with a better chance for it on Friday.

By Friday afternoon, area should be experiencing warm
advection isentropic lift. Anticipate some mid deck cloud as
well by then. Showers should hold off during the day. Would not
completely rule out a shower at night, especially for the
mountains.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
On Saturday, a strong negatively tilted upper level trough will
extend from the great lakes southward across the ohio and tennessee
river valley's and even down into the carolinas. This trough will
interact with a stalled frontal boundary off the southeast coast,
developing a surface low along the coast. The GFS and euro both
depict this storm moving along the east coast Saturday through
Sunday. Both models tend to keep this system far enough east to
avoid any direct impacts. These two features will act together to
provide plenty of moisture and lift across the area for a chance at
some showers and thunderstorms. This chance appears to be higher
later on Saturday, as a warm front lifts northward across the
region. With unsettled weather expected much of the day, expecting
temps to be below average, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

This pattern will continue to evolve into Sunday, as the upper level
trough moves over the area. Expecting MAX temperatures to be in the
low to mid 80s Sunday afternoon, with an even higher chance for
showers and storms throughout the day.

The trough will remain over the region on Monday, but looks to begin
to weaken and drift south. Given the continued presence of this
upper low, and a developing surface low over the ohio valley, i
expect precipitation to continue, but should be a little less
widespread than on Sunday. High temperatures will begin to increase
thanks to a return to southerly flow, with MAX temps reaching the
mid to upper 80s.

A cold front will be approaching from the west on Tuesday, keeping
flow out of the south throughout the day. This will continue to pump
moisture into the region. Thus, precipitation chances will remain
into Tuesday. MAX temperatures will be slightly warmer than Monday.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions will prevail tonight and Thursday. There is a
slim chance at patchy river valley fog, but do not believe it
will impact any terminal. Like today, a few diurnal cumulus
should develop tomorrow, with bases 5000 ft.

Area will begin experiencing return flow Friday. Showers should
hold off in the mountains during the afternoon, but may spread
east to cho mrb in the evening. Instability looks minimal, so
am not forecasting thunder at this time.

Unsettled weather returns this weekend as an upper level trough
nears from the west and a surface warm front lifts northward toward
the terminals Saturday night and into Sunday. Expect increasing rain
chances during this time period which will promote periods of sub
vfr conditions. The unsettled weather will persist into Monday as
the upper level trough begins to weaken a bit, but enough support
aloft will remain to produce diurnally driven showers storms. The
flow will remain south southeast through the period at 10 knots or
less, outside of any convective activity of course.

Marine
Winds should be 10 kt or less on the waters through the end of
the week. SCA conditions plausible this weekend and into Monday
as an upper level trough nears from the west, delivering
showers and thunderstorms across the region, with the afternoon
hours favored with the highest chances for precipitation and
stronger southerly breezes. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally gusty winds which may require the need for
special marine warnings should conditions warrant.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels near target on the potomac and mid bay, but running
several tenths below normal annapolis north. Believe that more
water evacuated the estuary than modeled, so water forecasts
have greater than typical uncertainty for the next couple of
days. Anticipate no issues through the end of the week, with
caution stage unlikely until this weekend.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Mm hts
short term... Hts
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm hts cjl
marine... Mm hts cjl
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 6 mi28 min ENE 9.7 G 12 81°F 1016.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi38 min NE 6 G 7 78°F 1016.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 13 mi38 min N 5.1 G 5.1 75°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 22 mi98 min NW 1 65°F 1016 hPa64°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi38 min 76°F 83°F1017 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 28 mi68 min N 7 G 8 78°F 80°F1016.7 hPa (+0.9)67°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 86°F1016.2 hPa
NCDV2 31 mi38 min Calm G 1 71°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi38 min 73°F 1015.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi28 min N 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 1015.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi28 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 1016.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi38 min W 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
CPVM2 35 mi38 min 79°F 62°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi38 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 83°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD13 mi71 minN 0 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F88%1016.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi76 minW 310.00 miFair70°F70°F100%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4NW5CalmNW4NW3NW6NW5NW4N4N4NW4NW4NW3W4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3S3S4SW6S3S5SW9SW9S9S7
G14
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SW7CalmW4CalmCalmW3W3W3CalmCalmW5
2 days agoS3SW3SW3CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmS4SE3S4S5S4SE7S5SE6S4SE4S5CalmCalmS5SW5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Maryland
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.60.60.811.31.41.41.210.80.50.40.30.30.50.81.21.41.61.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:11 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.2-00.20.30.30.30.1-0-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.40.50.50.40.20.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.