Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 12:37 PM   Moonset 3:02 AM

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ANZ470 Expires:202404152345;;805234 Fzus71 Kphi 152252 Mwsphi
marine weather statement national weather service mount holly nj 652 pm edt Mon apr 15 2024
anz451-470-471-152345- 652 pm edt Mon apr 15 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Coastal waters from manasquan inlet to little egg inlet nj out 20 nm - . Waters from manasquan inlet nj to little egg inlet nj out 20 to 40 nm - . Waters from sandy hook nj to manasquan inlet nj out 20 to 40 nm - .
at 652 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near lavallette, moving east at 35 knots.
the strong Thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 3969 7331 3986 7409 4004 7404 3997 7339 3994 7337 3982 7331 3977 7330

ANZ400 402 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure builds in early this morning and lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 161914 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 314 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves offshore tonight before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the East Coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging will slide eastward toward our region tonight.
This should limit coverage of showers despite a warm front approaching from the south which will bring some increasing clouds.
We do keep just a slight chance of showers in the forecast towards dawn though over the eastern MD shore but otherwise POPs are below 15 percent. Expect lows mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

High pressure will continue sliding offshore Wednesday as a cutoff low shifts over the Great Lakes and its cold front washes out across the Mid Atlantic. Showers look to arrive across the I-95 corridor by late morning/early afternoon timeframe with increasing chances and coverage through the day. A cool onshore flow will help keep an inversion in place for much of the day, limiting any instability and, therefore, limiting thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s with the Poconos and immediate coastline likely getting stuck in the mid to upper 50s.

Cold front moves through Wednesday night and brings with it widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Any instability, especially surface based instability, may remain limited through this period, so it is uncertain how widespread the coverage of storms will be. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Total rainfall amounts Wednesday and Wednesday night will be around a half an inch or less.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the rest of the day Thursday, global guidance is showing the potential for a backdoor front arriving as high pressure off the coast of Maine interacts with a weak coastal low off the Delmarva seaboard that will spin off from the decaying parent cold front from the previous night. Resultant E to NE flow will help keep temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week and about 10 degrees below climo. Depending on how far south this backdoor front advances, temperatures to the north will be in the 50s with mid to upper 60s to the south. Light showers or drizzle may linger through the day.

By Thursday night, the weak coastal low will be shunted southward enough that surface high pressure can build in and briefly shutoff the chances for showers. Lows Thursday night look to fall into the 40s most everywhere across the region.

High pressure will remain in control at least through Friday morning before the next system arrives later in the day.
Temperatures will be closer to climo with upper 50s to low/mid 60s. The next mid-level wave approaches during the afternoon, increasing shower chances into the evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure continues to work through the region Friday night, and then the cold front follows through on Saturday. Best chances for showers will be Friday night, and then any showers taper off Saturday morning. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, will keep PoPs capped at chance Friday night for now.

High pressure builds in from the north and west. Meanwhile, the cold front will sag south of the Mid-Atlantic and will become nearly stationary over the Southeast U.S., extending back through the Gulf Coast states and into the Southern Plains.

Several waves of low pressure will develop on that boundary, but the boundary should remain too far south for rain to affect the local area. Best chances for any showers look to be Tuesday.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows generally in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR. Northwest winds gusting to 15-20 kts. A sea breeze may result in a more southerly wind mostly at KACY in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...Increasing mid/high cloud cover but remaining VFR. Winds becoming light and variable in the evening and then generally E/NE overnight but remaining around 5 knots or less. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR in the morning before MVFR conditions arrive through the afternoon as showers advance west to east. East- southeast winds around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (70-80 percent) at times due to stratus and showers. The most likely time for this looks to be overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR, but a brief period of sub- VFR is possible (30 percent) Friday night through Saturday morning.

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions expected through Wednesday. Light south winds tonight shift east-southeast during the day Wednesday.
Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible beginning early Thursday morning, mainly due to gusty east-northeast winds from a backdoor front and building seas. Greatest chances for SCA conditions across the northern Atlantic waters.

Friday night through Sunday...Potential for SCA conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, otherwise, sub-SCA conditions.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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