Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:24 PM EST (19:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 5:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 201 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening...
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 201 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight. High pressure will return for late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161847
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
147 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build
into the area Wednesday, then shift south and east of the region
later this week into the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Snow continues to gradually increase in coverage and slowly push
south and east ahead of an approach cold front upper trough. Forward
progress is slow but steady. Expecting appreciable snow to begin in
the i-81 corridor between noon and 5 pm, and the i-95 corridor
between 8 pm and midnight. Hi-res guidance has been remarkably
consistent on a "snow hole" over much of the shenandoah valley in
the lee of the allegheny highlands, with around an inch expected in
the valley and around inches on the ridges (the allegheny front
itself is expected to see 2 to 4 inches).

This relative minima in QPF extends east into northern virginia and
central maryland including the baltimore dc metros due to a weakness
between better jet forcing to the north and strong PVA with the 500
mb low to the south. Given that the one inch will be falling into
the morning commute Wednesday, an advisory has been issued for the
interstate 95 corridor metros. The advisory has also been expanded
to include portions of central virginia closer to the upper
low better moisture where 1 to 2 inches is expected. Areas adjacent
to better jet forcing in northern maryland likely see 1 to 3 inches.

Despite favorable upper level dynamics, low level dry air intrusion
on NW flow begins by daybreak across much of the area, and this is
expected to eat away at the snow from north to south. Snow should
end around midnight across northwestern maryland, around daybreak
from the northern baltimore suburbs southwest into the shenandoah
valley and by mid-morning elsewhere, though some light snow may
linger across the central va piedmont until noon as the upper low
moves across. If this drier air moves in quicker than currently
forecast, snow will end sooner and totals will be lower. On the flip
side, if upper level dynamics overcome low level dry air, snow
totals could be a little higher, especially considering the strength
of the upper jet and colder temperatures resulting in higher ratios
toward the end of the event. Overall, a relatively dry and powdery
snow is expected.

Temperatures will fall as the Sun sets and precipitation starts,
quickly tumbling below freezing shortly after snow begins in any one
location. Temperatures are expected to then remain below freezing
through the day Wednesday as another arctic airmass spills into the
region on gusty northwest winds.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Clearing is expected on brisk northwest winds through the night
Wednesday night. Low temperatures will fall into the teens for most
areas, single digits at the higher elevations. With a tight pressure
gradient and cold air advection in place, wind gusts could approach
wind advisory criteria over the higher elevations Wednesday into
Thursday. The combination of these strong winds and cold
temperatures could also result in dangerously low wind chills
approaching -10 f over the ridgetops. Winds should be somewhat
lighter at the lower elevations precluding both wind advisory and
significant wind chill threats in the lowlands, though it will be
far from mild (wind chills likely in the single digits).

As the building high pushes to the south of the area on Thursday,
winds become more westerly and temperatures quickly begin to
moderate both as warmer air advects in aloft and westerly
downsloping component helps boost surface temperatures east of the
higher elevations. Highs a few degrees on either side of 40 are
expected. If winds go light Thursday night under clear skies, the
ambient airmass in place could allow temperatures to drop below the
20s currently forecast.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Surface high pressure will cover the southeastern states on Friday
as an upper level trough axis slowly moves offshore. Heights build
aloft as a broad upper level ridge becomes more established across
the central and eastern u.S. Temperatures on Friday continue to
moderate with dry weather expected.

The weekend will feature high pressure settled over the southeastern
and mid-atlantic states with a continued moderation in temperatures,
10 to 15 degrees above normal and continued dry weather.

By Monday, the area of low pressure that developed in the central
plains on Sunday will move into the western great lakes region early
Monday. The low level flow will bring an increase in moisture and
continued relatively mild temperatures on Monday. Best rain chance
(not snow) will be Monday into Monday night. The cold front
extending from the great lakes surface low will sweep across the
region on Tuesday. 85 hpa temperatures behind the cold front on
Tuesday finally go back below freezing, with some upslope snow
possible in the western mountains.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Conditions at most terminals have returned toVFR as of early this
afternoon. Mtn still has MVFR CIGS and this may continue immediately
adjacent to the chesapeake bay in light onshore flow. Lower CIGS are
still on the doorstep of bwi as well and likely re-develop around
sunset. Meanwhile, -sn is expected to move into mrb momentarily,
which will start causing vsby to drop there.

-sn expected at all terminals tonight with a period of ifr likely.

Lifr can't be ruled out in any briefly moderately heavy snow bands.

Winds will be light and variable tonight as the cold front causing
the light snow moves overhead.

Nw flow behind the front should bring drying and a return toVFR
shortly after daybreak Wednesday. Winds could gust 25-30 kts into
Wednesday evening before gradually diminishing.

ExpectVFR conditions through the extended. Due to the cold water
temperatures on the potomac, there could be ifr or lifr issues at
both dca and mtn due to fog during the morning hours fri-sun.

Marine
Light variable winds are expected over the waters as a cold front
moves overhead through tonight bringing light snow and lower
visiblities. Patchy fog is possible as well. NW winds increase
behind the front Wednesday morning into SCA territory, and likely
remain there well into Wednesday night. Winds should be lighter
Thursday, but SCA gusts are still possible.

With surface high pressure established, expect wind conditions
on the waters to be below SCA levels Friday-Sunday. With the
moderation in temperatures expected this weekend, some breakup
in ice will occur by late this weekend.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am est
Wednesday for dcz001.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am est
Wednesday for mdz011-013-014-016-503>506-508.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Wednesday for
mdz004>006-507.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
vaz503.

Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am est
Wednesday for vaz036>040-050>056-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
wvz050>053-055-501>505.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to midnight est
Wednesday night for anz530>533-535-536-538>542.

Small craft advisory from 3 am Wednesday to 6 am est Thursday
for anz534-537-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Smz
aviation... Smz dhof
marine... Smz dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi55 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 31°F 32°F1028.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi55 min S 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 33°F1029.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi115 min SSE 1.9 35°F 1031 hPa29°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 32°F 1030 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi89 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F28°F78%1030.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA10 mi50 minSSE 510.00 miFair40°F24°F53%1030.5 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair38°F23°F55%1029.9 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair40°F19°F43%1028.1 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi30 minESE 310.00 miFair41°F22°F48%1028.4 hPa
Culpeper, Culpeper County Airport, VA20 mi50 minSSW 610.00 miFair40°F17°F40%1028.8 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi29 minSSE 510.00 mi40°F23°F51%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5E7E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3E4CalmSE3W3Calm
1 day agoN6N4N8N7CalmNW5N4N4CalmN5CalmN4N5N5N4N7N6N5CalmN5NE4NW5NW4N3
2 days agoNW17
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N7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:16 AM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:42 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.20.50.70.910.90.80.60.40.2-0-0.10.20.50.81.11.21.31.10.90.70.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:16 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:45 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-00.20.50.811.21.20.90.60.30.1-0-00.20.60.91.21.31.31.20.90.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.