Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 21, 2017 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 132 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211647
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1247 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure east of norfolk will move offshore. A disturbance
will bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of our region
this afternoon and evening. High pressure will regain control
overnight tonight through Tuesday, before a strong cold front
pushes across our region and brings another threat for showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front could
stall to our southeast, while a second area of high pressure
builds in from the west later this week.

Near term through tonight
South winds 5 to 10 mph will usher in low level moisture to
help fuel some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. As the high pressure overhead inches offshore today, a
disturbance currently over northwest ohio will make its way
across and just north of the mason-dixon line later this
afternoon and this evening. This disturbance, combined with
increased theta-e and some wind shear should trigger showers
and thunderstorms. The main threats will be damaging winds, some
hail, and very heavy rainfall due to precipitable water values
between 1.80 and 2 inches. Most of this activity will be
confined to an area from us 15 to the chesapeake bay and south
to the fredericksburg. Timing on this activity seems to be
between 3 and 9 pm. Some activity could linger longer until
close to midnight before weakening or dissipating. As rain
activity lessens overnight, some patchy fog could develop in
areas where it has rained and where dewpoint temperatures remain
near 70 or in the lower 70s. Tonight's lows will be in the
lower to middle 70s.

Eclipse
As of 1230 pm you can see the shadow of the moon on clouds over
the eastern pacific on visible satellite imagery.

A few eclipse facts...

the Sun is about 390 times larger than the moon, and the Sun is
farther away from the earth than the moon coincidentally by a factor
of 390. When these align just right the moon blocks the sun's
photosphere as viewed from earth, and we can see the corona. This is
different each eclipse due to the shape of the magnetic field
emanating from the sun.

The moon is receding away from the earth at a rate of ~4 cm per
year. Eventually total solar ecipses will be impossible.

I've heard read discussion about today's being a "once in a
lifetime" eclipse. Actually there will be another on april 8,
2024 across the eastern half of the us. It will stretch from san
antonio, tx to caribou, me. Cities that will experience
totality include dallas, little rock, indianapolis, cleveland,
buffalo, and burlington. Some of these will experience close to
4 minutes of totality.

In 2024 washingon dc will experience 87% coverage (81% today),
baltimore 88% (today 79%).

The jackpot city is paducah, ky. The two eclipse tracks across the
states form somewhat of an "x" with paducah at the center of it.

Today it will experience 2:24 of totality. In 2024 the Sun will be
covered for 1:45.

Enjoy today's event, observe safely, and see you in 2024.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
A lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity could fulfill most of
Tuesday. High pressure will regain control and allow for dry
conditions. There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm along the
mason-dixon region and northeast maryland Tuesday afternoon and
evening as a weaker disturbance moves east across pennsylvania.

Otherwise, most other places will be dry. Highs will reach the
middle 90s with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
once again. The timing on a strong cold front remains in question
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. We have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the northern and western half of our region
Tuesday night for now. Tuesday night's lows will only bottom out in
the middle 70s.

The chance for a couple of showers linger Wednesday in the west,
central and southern areas. This is heavily weighted on when the
cold front can pass through the region. High pressure should
gradually build in from the west Wednesday night and bring cooler
and more comfortable conditions to the region. Highs Wednesday will
be middle 80s, cooler than previous days. Lows at night into the
middle to upper 60s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The extended forecast is blissfully quiet as high pressure builds
northeast from canada. Not only will the chance for precip be nil,
but temperatures will once again be atypically mild. The only cause
for concern will come from the upper level trough axis dropping
across the northeastern us. This feature may result in added cloud
cover. We shall see if subtleties from associated weak vorticity and
jet energy lead to a swing toward scattered showers in future model
runs.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions through Wednesday night. Any heavy showers or
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, as well as late Tuesday
and Tuesday night could reduce conditions to MVFR or ifr briefly.

Winds light and variable becoming south at 5 to 10 knots today.

Winds becoming southwest around 10 knots tonight through Tuesday,
then backing to the northwest at 10 knots Tuesday night and
Wednesday depending on frontal passage.

Vfr conditions anticipated thu-fri under building high pressure.

Marine
No marine hazards expected through Tuesday morning. Have opted
to issue small craft advisory for Tuesday afternoon-evening at
this time; gusts to 20-25 kt anticipated in mixing ahead of
cold front. Behind the cold front at the end of the week, expect
north winds. At this point, speeds look to be less than 15 kt.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon to 11 pm edt Tuesday for
anz530>543.

Update... Woody!
previous... Klw hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi41 min ESE 8 G 9.9 84°F 86°F1020.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi41 min S 6 G 8.9 86°F 83°F1020.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi149 min SSE 6 80°F 1022 hPa73°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi29 min SSE 18 G 19 82°F 1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi63 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F79°F82%1021.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA10 mi64 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F75°F64%1023 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi63 minVar 610.00 miFair90°F77°F66%1022.2 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi64 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F69°F52%1021.3 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi64 minS 710.00 miFair90°F75°F62%1021.3 hPa
Culpeper, Culpeper County Airport, VA20 mi84 minSSW 510.00 miFair91°F74°F60%1021.7 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi2 hrsSE 710.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4SW3CalmE5E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmS6SW6
1 day agoW6W5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN9N7CalmNW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3N5NE5N4NW4Calm
2 days agoSW6S7S8
G14
W3W4W5CalmS4CalmSE3S4NW5NW4CalmNW3W4CalmCalmCalmN4NW8N8W5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 06:29 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.40.81.11.41.51.41.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.10.20.50.81.11.21.21.10.80.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.20.611.41.71.81.71.410.60.3000.30.71.11.51.71.71.410.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.