Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boswell's Corner, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:22PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:00 AM EST (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:32AMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 931 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 931 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast today. A cold front will approach the area Monday night and cross the area Tuesday. This will be followed by another area of high pressure for the second half of the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night through Thursday, with gales possible Tuesday with the frontal passage.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boswell's Corner, VA
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location: 38.54, -77.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 221527 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1027 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will shift east off the southeast coast today. A
cold front will approach from the west tonight, then cross the
region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the area during
the second half of the week, then shift offshore this weekend as
another frontal system approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
While guidance suggest we will lose the stratocu deck later
today there will be a sig increase in high level clouds. So,
expecting cloudy skies overall today. Still very mild with
temperatures in the mid 60s in most places. Don't think we'll
hit 70f in any areas today. Showers should hold off until
evening in the west and after midnight in the east.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Overall guidance has come into good agreement on timing a cold
frontal passage around midday Tuesday. As the front approaches
from the west Monday evening, clouds quickly lower and thicken.

Expect showers to develop advect into the region near and west
of the blue ridge during the middle to late evening, then
quickly spread eastward overnight. Elevated instability of
100-300 j kg should be enough for a few isolated thunderstorms
as well. It will be a rather mild and humid night for late
january, with lows only in the mid 40s to lower 50s, and dew
points not far behind.

Since the front passes through around midday Tuesday, this
allows for a little surface heating during the mid to late
morning. This may allow a few thunderstorms to become rooted in
the boundary layer, resulting in a few instances of gusty winds.

The best chance for this would be south of us 50 into interior
southern md away from the cooler water. Gusty southerly winds
are likely over the ridgetops as well since they will be poking
into the low level jet, but at the moment it appears winds will
be brief and sporadic enough to preclude a wind advisory ahead
of the front at least for now.

The front will pull offshore by Tuesday evening. NW winds will
be a bit blustery, again especially on the ridges (where a wind
advisory would be more likely in cold advection). These NW winds
will usher in a more seasonable airmass for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Upslope snow showers are likely with about 1 to
2 inches of accumulation expected Tuesday night in NW flow. A
secondary shortwave could reinvigorate some light upslope snow
showers and keep extra clouds around the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A reinforcing shot of cool air will cross the region on
Thursday, resulting in what will likely be the coolest day of
the week. However, with the air still having more of a pacific
than arctic origin, it will only drop temps to around or perhaps
just slightly below normal. Winds will gust a bit, but
otherwise, a seasonable january day. High pressure will build
overhead on Friday, and temps will begin to moderate already,
but the big warming will get underway Saturday as the high
shifts east and southwest flow kicks back in on the high's west
side. However, guidance is not in great agreement on how long
the warm spell lasts, with the GFS quickly pushing a cold front
across the area by Saturday night, while the ec lingers it until
during the day Sunday. Accompanying the front will be some
showers, but as with the front, timing on them varies, and is
rather uncertain. Best chance of rain is Saturday night. By
later Sunday, cooler air will be streaming back across the area,
but with limited if any arctic air available, not expecting any
severe cold, and even below normal readings will be a bit hard
to find.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Vfr is expected. S winds around 10 kts, with a few gusts to
around 20 kts are expected today.

Clouds quickly lower and thicken tonight, especially after
midnight, with widespread ifr CIGS likely by 9z. Vsbys drop in
-shra as well after midnight. Llws issues almost a certainty
with strong LLJ about 50 kts around 2 kft.

Iso thunder potential as well 9-18z tue, possibly accompanied
by gusty surface winds mainly SE of a line from dca to cho.

Vfr returns Tue aft. Gusty NW flow ensues 10 g 20 kts into wed
before gradually diminishing.

Vfr will prevail Thursday and Friday with high pressure in
control overall. A dry cold front on Thursday may bring
northwesterly gusts back to 20-25 knots, but they should subside
by Friday.

Marine
Sca gusts expected, albeit a bit sporadic due to poor mixing
over cooler water starting this evening. Gusts should gradually
become more widespread into Tuesday, with gales possible
depending on mixing convection. Winds shift to NW following cold
fropa Tue early aft. Gusts could persist through Tue night into
wed before diminishing as high pressure builds.

Reinforcing shot of cool air moving south from canada on
Thursday will likely lead to more SCA conditions, but winds
should relax Friday as high pressure builds overhead.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
will cause water levels to increase today through Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible, especially during the midday
high tide cycles Tuesday if the cold front isn't through by
then. However, confidence on any minor flooding is low.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
anz530>532-535-536-538>541.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 pm est
Tuesday for anz533-534-537-542-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Lfr
short term... Dhof
long term... Rcm
aviation... Rcm dhof
marine... Rcm dhof
tides coastal flooding... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 28 mi42 min SSW 8.9 G 11 57°F 36°F1020.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi42 min S 5.1 G 8 52°F 34°F1021.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi150 min SSE 4.1 43°F 1021 hPa39°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 56 mi60 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 34°F1 ft1022 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA10 mi64 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast49°F41°F74%1021.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA10 mi65 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast56°F44°F65%1022.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA13 mi64 minS 510.00 miOvercast55°F44°F67%1022.5 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA13 mi65 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast58°F41°F54%1021 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA19 mi65 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F43°F65%1021.7 hPa
Culpeper, Culpeper County Airport, VA20 mi65 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast56°F42°F59%1021.3 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA21 mi64 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F41°F60%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S3SE4S7S4S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S3SE4S5S5S3
1 day agoW3W8SW7W8SW8SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoSE4CalmSW4CalmSW7SW3SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:49 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:13 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:49 PM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.40.20.20.30.711.11.21.210.80.50.40.30.10.20.50.811.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:58 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.20-0.1-00.20.50.91.21.31.210.70.40.1000.10.40.81.11.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.