Thursday, July19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Secretary, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 131 Pm Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
This afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely . Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 131 Pm Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will prevail through tonight before relocating off the new england coast Friday. A weak area of low pressure may move near the delmarva coastline Saturday before another low approaches from the west on Sunday. Small craft advisories may be required Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Secretary, MD
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location: 38.57, -76     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191338
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
938 am edt Thu jul 19 2018

High pressure will build across the region today before moving
offshore on Friday. A low pressure system will move up the coast on
Saturday. Another low pressure system will remain nearly stationary
over the midwest, affecting our area through the middle of next

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface high pressure was centered over the northeast and mid-
atlantic states this morning. This high will gradually build
eastward but continue to influence our weather through the
remainder of the day.

A light n-ne wind will continue into the afternoon. However, a
sea-breeze is expected to move inland across the coastal plain
this afternoon, resulting in a wind shift from the e-se behind
the boundary. Minor updates were made with the 930 am estf to
highlight this effects of the sea breeze.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s this
afternoon. The humidity should be low, especially for mid summer
standards, with dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
The center of high pressure is expected to pass off the new england
coast tonight. However, will will continue to experience dry weather
under a mostly clear sky.

A light and variable wind is forecast for tonight with low
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday and Friday night... High pressure slides offshore early Friday
and this looks to be the last of the more pleasant days in this
forecast. Very little moisture will be across the region through
much of Friday and we should have mostly sunny skies across the
region through the day. High temperatures will feel comfortable and
in the low to mid 80s (mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations
of the southern poconos).

As we head into Friday night, we will start to see some clouds
moving into the area in response to a developing coastal low to our
south. Some showers may start to edge their way into parts of our
area, mainly southern delaware and maryland. Meanwhile, a strong
upper level trough and strong surface low will start to push
southeastward from the upper midwest towards the ohio valley.

Saturday and Saturday night... The coastal low will start to make its
way up the coast on Saturday. The models continue to have
differences with respect to timing, strength, and speed of the low
as it moves up the coast but the solutions look much closer than did
on last nights model runs. One of the biggest discrepancies is just
how much precipitation will fall through Saturday. All the guidance
suggests some pretty decent rainfall, especially near the track of
the low, but with the exact track uncertain, it is hard to pinpoint
just which areas may see the most rain fall. Should the low track
right along closer to the coast, we would expect to see fairly poor
conditions across the region on Saturday. A slightly further
offshore track will mean some areas may see a decent Saturday,
albeit a cloudy overcast one.

Meanwhile, the upper level trough closed low and strong surface low
begin to settle in over the midwest.

Sunday through Wednesday... Not much change is noted as the upper low
digs down deeper and into the tennessee valley. The associated
surface low makes little progress as it continues to sit and spin
over the midwest, largely due to the strengthening surface high
building over the atlantic ocean. The models show the surface low
moving to the west southwest as the atlantic high continues to
strengthen. Unfortunately, the upper trough doesn't break apart as
easily as the surface low and we will remain in an unsettled pattern
through at least the midweek period.

As the low spins, a warm front looks to be pushed northward into our
area on Sunday. With a deep southerly flow in place, we will
continue to see moisture rise across the region with pwats running
very high (ranging from 1.5 to 2+ inches across the area). Hard to
pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall at this point but
heavy, flooding rain will be likely in any storms that develop
through this period and will need to be monitored as the forecast
becomes clearer.

For the most part through this period, the warmer air at 850mb
remains suppressed to the south and west. While we will still see
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s, we should be able to
avoid temperatures reaching well into the 90s and the excessive heat
that comes along with it when humidity rises. Apparent temperatures
will likely start reach into the low to mid 90s but should remain
below heat advisory criteria. However, with all of the moisture
across the region, it will remain rather humid outside (on top of
being mostly cloudy).

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with a mostly clear sky. North wind 3 to 7 knots
becoming variable in the afternoon. Sea and bay breeze fronts are
forecast to reach kacy, kmiv and kilg with the wind becoming
southeasterly at those locations in the afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with a mostly clear sky. Light and variable wind.


Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Southeast winds around 10
knots or less. High confidence.

Friday night through Sunday... Periods of MVFR ifr as showers and
thunderstorms overspread the region. East to southeast winds around
8 to 12 knots on Saturday, becoming more southerly on Sunday.

Moderate confidence.

Monday... Periods of MVFR ifr as showers and thunderstorms overspread
the region. South winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to
25 knots, especially closer to the coast.

High pressure is expected to influence the coastal waters of new
jersey and delaware for today and tonight.

A north wind around 10 knots this morning should become southeast to
south 5 to 10 knots for this afternoon into tonight.

Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range.

Waves on delaware bay are anticipated to be 2 feet or less.


Friday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.

Saturday... Increasing east to northeast winds. Gusts may near 25
knots at times during the afternoon evening. Seas will build through
the day and may exceed 5 feet Saturday evening. A small craft
advisory may be needed for Saturday evening.

Sunday through Monday... Southeast winds around 10 to 20 knots. Gusts
around 25 knots on Monday. Seas will remain elevated above 5 feet
through Monday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.

Rip currents...

a light onshore flow and a medium period swell should result in a
low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Iovino klein
short term... Iovino
long term... Meola
aviation... Iovino meola
marine... Iovino meola

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 4 mi41 min 83°F 84°F1020.1 hPa (+0.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi41 min N 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 1 ft1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 23 mi41 min N 7 G 8.9 78°F 1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 24 mi41 min N 6 G 8 82°F 85°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 82°F1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi41 min N 5.1 G 6 76°F 80°F1020.5 hPa (+0.0)57°F
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi41 min E 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 81°F1 ft1019.9 hPa (+0.0)
CPVM2 36 mi41 min 78°F 56°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 38 mi41 min 80°F 1019.1 hPa (+0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 40 mi131 min ENE 4.1 77°F 1020 hPa53°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 41 mi41 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 81°F1 ft1018.2 hPa (+0.4)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi41 min N 5.1 G 7 78°F 81°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 47 mi131 min NE 2.9 80°F 1019 hPa54°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 49 mi41 min 75°F 76°F1019.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD3 mi66 minNNW 610.00 miFair82°F55°F40%1019 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi47 minN 010.00 miClear84°F53°F35%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN95
1 day agoS12
2 days agoS11S10

Tide / Current Tables for Cambridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Thu -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:30 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Thu -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:54 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.