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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 734 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers after midnight. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build across the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

FXUS61 KLWX 241910 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will cross the area this afternoon bringing with it breezy conditions and a few spotty showers. High pressure returns Thursday and Friday. A warm front lifts into the area this weekend bringing a significant warm up early next week. Next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A prominent mid-level shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery over New Jersey this afternoon. As large scale descent has increased in its wake, earlier showers and thunderstorms across northeast Maryland have dissipated. Dry conditions are expected across the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. Fair weather cumulus remain within northwesterly low-level flow. Winds will continue to gust to around 20-30 mph out of the northwest, and temperatures will reach highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most (50s mountains).

Winds turn northerly tonight as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Cold advection will continue in northerly flow, with temperatures dropping back into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will continue to build to our north tomorrow into Friday. As the high slowly shifts eastward, winds will turn from northeasterly tomorrow morning, to easterly tomorrow afternoon, and then southeasterly on Friday. No precipitation is expected through the daylight hours Friday. In general, a mix of sun and clouds is forecast, with cloudier skies further south and west, and more sunshine further north and east. High temperatures both days will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows generally in the 40s. The next chance for showers will come Friday night as warm advection ensues aloft ahead of a system over the center of the country.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A tale of two seasons this weekend as a warm front lifts through the region. Feeling like Summer Sunday through Tuesday with the next widespread chance of rain arriving midweek.

Surface high pressure will continue to nudge south and east off the southern New England coast into the western Atlantic for the start of the weekend. Meanwhile, at the surface a warm front will lift north along the western periphery of the surface high and push toward the eastern Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This front may lend to a few showers mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge although it should remain relatively moisture starved with upper level ridging quickly building in from the southeastern U.S. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s and low 60s north of I-66/US-50 with mid to upper 60s further south. This spread is due largely in part to the placement of the boundary and eroding wedge/easterly component mainly east of the Blue Ridge.

A true tease to Summer arrives Sunday-Tuesday of next week as strong upper level ridging off builds over the mId-Atlantic region. With strong surface high pressure off the NC coast an ample supply of warm air advection will surge our way boosting temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and potentially pushing toward 90 degrees in some locations early next week. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late April standards. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s.

The ridge begins to buckle Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will bring renewed chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. With that said, severe weather could become a possibility given the well above normal temperatures and modest dynamics Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front passes. CIPS analogues and the CSU Learning Machine probabilities continue to highlight this potential 7 days out especially in areas east of I-81. We'll continue to monitor this threat and see how it evolves over the coming days ahead.



AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Gusts out of the northwest up to 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds turn northerly and then northeasterly tonight. Winds start out northeasterly tomorrow, then turn easterly tomorrow afternoon.
Winds on Friday will be out of the southeast.

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals Thursday and Friday with high pressure overhead. East to southeast winds will gusts between 10 to 15 kts Thursday and Friday.

A warm front lifts into the area Saturday providing a few spotty showers to terminals west of the corridor. Outside of the showers expect extra mid and high level clouds from time to time with southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 kts. Less cloud cover is expected Sunday and Monday as ridging strengthens. Winds will remain elevated out of the south and southwest with gusts 10 to 15 kts.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect this afternoon in northwesterly flow.
Winds turn northerly tonight, and SCAs remain in effect through the night. Sub-SCA northeast and then easterly winds are expected tomorrow. Sub-SCA southeasterly winds are expected on Friday.

Winds could flirt with SCA criteria for a few hours on both Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will lift across the waters Saturday changing the winds toward more of a southerly direction. With surface high pressure off the Carolina coast expected, southerly winds Saturday to change to more of a southeasterly direction Sunday. Gusts of 15-18kts are expected Saturday with 20-25 kts gusts possible Sunday due to southerly channeling. Sub-SCA level winds return Monday before SCA level winds return ahead of a strong cold front Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Winds turn out of the northwest behind a cold front and will be stronger, sustained around 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph and possibly higher along the ridges. RHs could drop into the upper 20s and low 30s this afternoon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Northwesterly winds are causing tidal anomalies to drop rapidly today. As a result, no coastal flooding is expected over the next day, with only Action stage possible at the most sensitive sites. Winds turn easterly tomorrow, and then southeasterly on Friday. This may cause water levels to increase again, making coastal flooding possible by Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530-531- 538-539.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ532- 533-536-540-541.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534- 537-542-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.

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Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

Glymont, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

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