Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cherry Hill, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:37PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1031 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain positioned in the western atlantic today. A cold front will approach from pennsylvania Tuesday, then stall over the waters during the middle of the week. The front may finally push to the south Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cherry Hill, VA
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location: 38.57, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181351
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
951 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain off of the mid-atlantic coast today.

A cold front will approach the area from the north on Tuesday
and stall across the area during the middle of the week. The
front may push south of the area by Friday before lifting back
north over the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Surface high pressure will remain over the southeastern conus
into the atlantic ocean while and upper-level high builds
overhead. A west to southwest flow will around the surface high
will usher in high humidity while subsidence from the upper-
level high produces hot conditions. The heat and humidity will
lead to high heat indices around 100 to 105 degrees for many
locations. A heat advisory is in effect for the eastern
panhandle of west virginia and washington county maryland where
the criteria for a heat advisory is 100 degrees. A head advisory
is also in effect along the i-95 corridor from fredericksburg to
baltimore where the criteria is 105 degrees. Elsewhere, heat
indices are most likely to range from the mid and upper 90s west
of the blue ridge mountains to the lower 100s east of the blue
ridge mountains. Confidence was too low for a heat headline
across these areas at this time, but it will continue to be
monitored throughout the afternoon.

Max air temperatures will be in the lower to middle 90s for most
locations.

Convective development is mainly limited to the cams, but there
may be a subtle lee trough which could spark a few showers and
storms. Most areas will remain dry though.

A cold front will be approaching from the north tonight. The nam
displays the quick end of possibilities, with showers and storms
pushing into northern maryland after midnight. Have sided with the
consensus for the forecast, leaving low chances of precipitation for
late tonight. In southern parts of the CWA where it will remain
clearer, some patchy fog will be possible again. Lows will be in the
70s to around 80.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The front will continue southward on Tuesday, taking on a bit of a
backdoor orientation and stalling out, as troughing moves off the
new england coast while ridging remains prominent in the mississippi
valley. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the front Tuesday
afternoon, and with the mid upper flow parallel to the boundary and
a deep warm cloud layer, locally heavy rain will be the main threat.

Heat indices may top 100 again south of the front (north central
va), while highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s to the north.

The front may push a bit to the south Tuesday night but lift back to
the north on Wednesday as a wave of low pressure tracks along it.

It's tough to rule out precipitation at any point through this
stretch, although diurnal instability will increase the odds. In
addition to the locally heavy rain threat again on Wednesday, deep
shear will increase into the 25-35 kt range ahead of a mid level
impulse, which means a few severe storms will be possible as well.

Temperatures will continue to be modulated by the frontal position
and cloud cover.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A front will be over our area on Thursday, keeping the chance
of showers and thunderstorms over our region. Guidance is coming
into somewhat better agreement on the position of this front
Thursday night into Friday. Now the determinist ECMWF has joined
the GFS by pushing the front south our area Thursday night into
Friday, but how far south is still questionable. This solution
brings drier air into our parts of our CWA as surface high
pressure builds over our from the north. This high pressure will
then move offshore later on Friday. The front to our south will
lift north as a warm front on Saturday as a low pressure tracks
from the mid-west into the great lakes. A cold front associated
to this low will then approach on Sunday and be near over us on
Monday.

High temperatures during this period will be in the low to mid 80s,
with some 70s at higher elevations.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Vfr is expected for the remainder of the day. An isolated storm
could develop near the blue ridge, but the chance of one
impacting a terminal is too low to include in the tafs.

A cold front will push toward the area late tonight into Tuesday.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight if clouds hold off. The chance
of showers and storms will increase Tuesday afternoon. Some low
clouds could occur along the front as well. The front will stall
nearby through Wednesday. Precipitation could occur at any time,
though the highest chances will mainly be in the afternoon. Low
clouds could develop Wednesday morning if the front pushes far
enough to the south.

A frontal boundary is expected to be over our area on Thursday.

The front is forecast to push south on Friday, and then lift
north as a warm front on Saturday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are possible during this period causing sub-vfr
conditions over some terminals.

Marine
Expecting winds to remain below SCA criteria through tonight. A bit
of uncertainty on Tuesday as a cold front drops south into the area,
but for the most part am expecting winds to be less than 15 kt. The
front will stall across the area through Wednesday, so winds should
be light, but there will be chances for thunderstorms at times,
especially south of the front.

A frontal boundary is expected to be over our area on Thursday.

The front is forecast to push south on Friday, and then lift
north as a warm front on Saturday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are possible during this period. Winds gusts are
expected to remain below the small craft advisory criteria,
therefore not anticipating an advisory during this period.

Climate
Well above normal temperatures are forecast today through
Tuesday. Below is a list of daily record warm temperatures.

Washington dc area (dca)
date record high record warm low
june 18 97 (1944) 77 (2014, 1957)
june 19 99 (1994) 75 (2011, 1994, 1981, 1978)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept
at ronald reagan washington national airport since 1945.

Additional temperature records observed downtown date back to
1872.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
date record high record warm low
june 18 97 (1957, 1944) 75 (1957)
june 19 99 (1994) 74 (1905)
temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept
at baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport since 1950. Additional temperature records observed
downtown date back to 1872.

Dulles va area (iad)
date record high record warm low
june 18 94 (2007, 2006) 73 (2017)
june 19 98 (1994) 71 (2014)
temperature records for the dulles va area have been kept at
washington dulles international airport since 1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz003-011-013-
014-016-504-506.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz031-052>056.

Wv... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Bjl ads
short term... Ads
long term... Imr
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads
climate... Dhof rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 20 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 82°F 83°F1016.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 23 mi45 min S 7 G 8.9 84°F 74°F1016.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 31 mi105 min SE 5.1 84°F 1017 hPa73°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi35 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 1017.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi45 min E 8.9 G 8.9 77°F 77°F1016.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi45 min S 8 G 8.9 76°F 1017.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 47 mi75 min S 9.9 G 11 76°F 76°F1017.9 hPa (-0.9)75°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi51 min S 5.1 G 6
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi45 min 83°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA6 mi19 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F78°F80%1017.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA17 mi20 minWSW 310.00 miFair90°F73°F59%1018.3 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA19 mi19 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F73°F59%1017.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA22 mi23 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F70°F55%1016.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA24 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair90°F73°F58%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4S3CalmS3S6SW3SW3S3SW4S4NW6NW4NW4W3NW4NW4NW5CalmS5S7S6S6S5
1 day agoS6S7S6S7S4S5SW3NW3NW3NW3W3SE4CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmNW3S3E4E3CalmS4
2 days agoN11
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N5N7N3NE3NW5CalmW5NW7NW7NW6NW6NW6NW4--NW5W3S3S4S6S5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Potomac River, Maryland
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Deep Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.410.70.40.20.10.40.91.41.81.91.91.61.20.90.50.200.10.411.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Glymont, Potomac River, Maryland
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Glymont
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:41 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.71.30.90.60.30.10.30.71.31.92.12.21.91.61.10.70.40.100.30.81.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.