Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cherry Hill, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:55PM Monday April 23, 2018 10:55 PM EDT (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1032 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Mon Apr 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An area of low pressure over the tennessee valley and southeast u.s. Will approach the region tonight and Tuesday, crossing the waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then move near the area Thursday. Another low pressure system may affect the waters by Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday and Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cherry Hill, VA
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location: 38.57, -77.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240124
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
924 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the
region tonight through Wednesday. A brief ridge of high
pressure will build in Thursday, ahead of the next low pressure
system that may affect the region Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A closed low will slowly move eastward from the tennessee valley
tonight. South to southeast flow will be on the increase
through the night along with increasing moisture and warm air
advection.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower tonight. The
rainfall, however, will be slow to arrive. Incorporating a time-
lagged ensemble approach continues to delay the arrival. Not
only are dewpoint depressions still 20 degrees or greater, but
there is a significant dry layer noted from the 00z iad raob
between 700-500 mb to overcome.

Overnight tonight rain probabilities will continue to increase
from southwest to northeast. Rain should be falling by sunrise
from about winchester-fredericksburg south west. Further
northeast, locations will likely remain dry through the night.

Do have a buffering band of chance pops that includes
hagerstown martinsburg-metro dc-southern maryland. Lows tonight
will settle mainly in the mid upper 40s to around 50f.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
The area of low pressure will continue its slow eastward trek
through the day Tuesday, reaching western north carolina by late
in the day. A track northeastward to the virginia tidewater
region is then forecast for Tuesday night, and into the
philadelphia new york city area by late Wednesday.

Periods of rain are expected during the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, tapering off to showers on Wednesday. While
widespread hydrological concerns are not currently anticipated,
with precipitable water values topping off around 1-1.25", there
will likely be some areas of locally heavy rain. Total rainfall
amounts are expected to range from 1-2" over a 24-36 hour
period. With low level southeast flow into the higher elevations
of the blue ridge and nearby highlands, some localized amounts
of up to 3" are possible. 6-hour flash flood guidance ranges
from generally 1-3", so any flash flood threat is quite low,
however if some locations do manage to see 3", there may be some
minor hydrologic issues. Wpc has outlined the region in a
marginal risk for flooding, and this continues to look
reasonable.

High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 50s to near
60f, with lows Tuesday night in the upper 40s and low 50s. With
precipitation of a more showery nature on Wednesday,
temperatures will likely rise a few more degrees, with highs in
the 60s area-wide.

Drying will take place Wednesday night as the system pulls
northeastward. Lows in the 40s to around 50f.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Following the passage of the low pressure system from Tuesday and
Wednesday, a weak high pressure moves into the region, bringing a
period of clear weather on Thursday. With little evidence of cold
advection from this system, temperatures can be expected to remain
around average, with values in the upper 60's possible.

On Friday, the forecast is a lot less certain at this time. Since
this time yesterday, there has been a bit of a shift in model
guidance, leaning towards the possibility of a weak coastal low
impacting our area, bringing a chance for some light rain. However,
the GFS is the only model really showing this at this point. Another
point to note is that only a few of the GEFS ensemble members show
any rain from a system on Friday. The european and canadian both try
to develop a low across the southeast late Thursday early Friday,
but neither bring this up into our area. For now, keeping the chance
for precipitation on Friday for the entire area due to the high
degree of uncertainty at this point in the forecast. Temperatures on
Friday look to remain near to slightly below average, and could vary
greatly depending on the evolution of this potential system.

On Saturday a weak cold front, associated with a low pressure
system to our north, will pass through the area sometime during the
morning. This front doesn't look to bring a large chance for
precipitation, but a few showers can not be ruled out.

Temperatures don't look to be affected to much either, and look
to remain pretty consistent with averages for this time of
year.

High pressure builds in on Sunday, which should keep things dry,
with temperatures slightly warmer than on Saturday.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions expected through tonight with a gradually
thickening and lowering cloud deck. MVFR conditions then become
possible at cho by 1100 utc Tuesday morning as rain and lower
ceilings approach from the southwest. MVFR is then expected to
spread across the remainder of the region during the morning and
into the early afternoon Tuesday, with ifr becoming likely by
later in the day as well. Ifr in rain and low ceilings will
likely continue Tuesday night. Clouds and showers will persist
for much of the day on Wednesday with potential for sub-VFR
conditions continuing.

ExpectVFR conditions for much of Thursday, and early Friday, as we
enter a relatively calm period as high pressure builds into the
area. Latest guidance still suggests a chance for some impact from a
weak coastal low on Friday, bringing about the chance for some low
clouds in the area. Sub-vfr conditions are possible during this
timeframe.

Marine
Winds have eased under small craft advisory conditions. Do not
believe gusty winds will return until Tuesday, as low pressure
approaches the waters. Have therefore cancelled the advisory for
tonight, and implemented a staggered return on Tuesday.

The strongest period of winds is expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Have reoriented the SCA to have a staggered end as
well, first on the mid-upper tidal potomac Tuesday evening,
then for the rest of the waters predawn Wednesday. Another
period of sca- criteria winds will likely develop Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night as the system departs.

An exiting low pressure system early on Thursday could bring gusty
winds to the area, so some SCA criteria winds are possible during
this time. Friday is highly variable dependent on the development of
the potential coastal low on Friday.

Hydrology
Widespread rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are forecast from
tonight through Wednesday, with locally higher amounts likely
along the central blue ridge and adjacent foothills to the east.

Due to relatively dry antecedent conditions and extended time
period over which the rain falls, widespread hydrological
concerns are not anticipated. However, with increasing southeast
flow, localized amounts of up to 3" are possible, again mainly
near the higher elevations of the blue ridge and near-by
highlands which could lead to some minor hydrology issues.

Tides coastal flooding
As low pressure approaches from the southeastern u.S through
Tuesday night, a persistent onshore flow will develop. This
will yield increasing tidal anomalies, and the possibility of
coastal flooding toward Tuesday and Wednesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for anz530-531-538>540-542.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for anz532>534-537-541-543.

Small craft advisory from 11 am to 10 pm edt Tuesday for
anz535-536.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm hts
short term... Mm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm hts cjl
marine... Hts mm cjl
hydrology... Mm hts
tides coastal flooding... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 20 mi37 min ESE 12 G 15 56°F 58°F1027.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 23 mi37 min SSE 5.1 G 7 58°F 56°F1028.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 31 mi145 min SSE 8.9 59°F 1029 hPa32°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi25 min ESE 9.7 G 9.7 55°F 1029 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi37 min SSE 9.9 G 11 55°F 54°F1028.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi37 min SSE 15 G 18 57°F 1029.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 47 mi55 min ESE 11 G 12 57°F 53°F1029.8 hPa (+0.0)34°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 47 mi37 min SE 14 G 15
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi37 min 56°F 1028.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA6 mi59 minSSE 410.00 miFair58°F37°F48%1029 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA17 mi60 minE 510.00 miFair57°F30°F36%1029.5 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA19 mi59 minESE 610.00 miFair56°F33°F42%1029.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA22 mi63 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F30°F35%1029 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA24 mi60 minE 510.00 miFair57°F35°F44%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E3E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmS4CalmSW5SE12SE12SE13
G22
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1 day agoS5S4S5S5S6S6CalmS7S7S6S7SW4SW5SW6SW7S4S7SE11SE16SE12SE13SE9SE9E6
2 days agoNW6NW8NW9N10NE13E11E7E6CalmNW6CalmCalmSE4S6SE4S6SE5E4E3CalmCalmNE6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Potomac River, Maryland
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Deep Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:34 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.71.71.51.20.80.50.30.20.30.71.11.61.81.81.71.41.10.70.50.30.20.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Glymont, Potomac River, Maryland
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Glymont
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:14 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.81.91.81.51.10.70.50.30.30.51.11.61.92.121.71.310.60.40.20.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.