Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:18 PM EDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 1220 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 11 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 11 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 7 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ400 1220 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Hurricane maria will move slowly northward off the coast of the outer banks through Wednesday before turning sharply east- northeastward into the open atlantic through the end of the week. A cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on Thursday, and a reinforcing front will progress through the area Friday and Friday night. Cool high pressure will settle into the northeast this weekend through at least early next week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261624
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1224 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane maria will move slowly northward off the coast of the
outer banks through Wednesday before turning sharply east-
northeastward into the open atlantic through the end of the
week. A cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on
Thursday, and a reinforcing front will progress through the area
Friday and Friday night. Cool high pressure will settle into
the northeast this weekend through at least early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure will remain over the northeastern states today.

Hurricane maria will be located off the north carolina coast.

The circulation around the two systems will keep an onshore flow
in our region for today.

Low clouds over the coastal plain continued to lift and erode
around midday. They may linger through the afternoon near the
new jersey coast, in central and southern delaware and in the
adjacent counties of eastern maryland.

The wind should favor the northeast and east. Speeds are
expected to be around 10 mph on the coastal plain and around 5
mph inland. Gusts are expected along the coast.

Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be in the 70s near the
coast due to the onshore flow, and in the 80s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
Low clouds and patchy fog will develop once again across the
coastal plain and the DELMARVA late tonight. NE winds will
diminish to 5-10 mph along the coasts and to 5 mph or less
inland. Meanwhile, maria will begin to weaken to a tropical
storm as it begins to sharply curve out to sea. A few outer rain
bands may move into southern portions of the forecast area, but
not expecting much, if any, qpf. Lows tonight generally in the
low 60s to the north and in the upper 60s to around 70 to the
south.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Main forecast concerns for the long-term period are
precipitation chances Wednesday and again Friday night and
Saturday and a sharp downward trend with temperatures versus
what has been observed recently.

Analysis of the 00z operational model suite suggests that the
overall large-scale pattern is decently agreed upon, but rather
large discrepancies exist with the smaller-scale vorticity
maxima that will be progressing through and or affecting our
region through the period. Additionally, poor run-to-run model
continuity continues, owing largely to uncertainty with the flow
pattern in the northern pacific and the apparent substantial
influences downstream.

At 12z Wednesday, maria will be off the coast of the outer
banks. A potent vort MAX will be progressing through ontario
with southwesterly midlevel flow between the two. Although the
main impacts from maria will be well south east of the area, the
pressure gradient will be tightening in the southern cwa, so
expect breezy conditions to develop in southern delaware and far
southeast new jersey. Northeasterly surface flow should keep
the area socked in clouds much of the day, with only gradual
improvement from northwest to southeast. Some showers are
possible, especially near the coast, as maria makes its closest
approach to the area. However, a considerable portion of the
model output is dry through Wednesday night. The exceptions are
the 00z cmc ecmwf, which indicate some QPF close to the coast.

The totals from the cmc look overdone, but the geographic
agreement with the ECMWF suggests that precipitation chances
should remain. I did lower them considerably northwest of i-95,
where there is little remaining evidence of sufficient lift for
showers. One noteworthy development: the 00z ECMWF is
considerably slower and continues on the west side of the
guidance with the track of maria. By Thursday, it becomes an
outlier with the position of maria, so I neglected to give the
new simulation strong weighting in the forecast.

As the ontario trough moves rapidly east-northeast into the
canadian maritimes on Thursday, maria should begin the eastward
turn. The ECMWF is weakest with this trough and considerably
more sluggish in advancing maria farther offshore - this does
lower confidence in Thursday's forecast a little bit. A surface
low will develop and progress rapidly eastward through quebec
and new brunswick, with a cold front sweeping across the eastern
seaboard Thursday. Cooler and noticeably drier air will seep
into the mid-atlantic upstream of the front, with forecast highs
Thursday around 10 degrees colder in the urban corridor and up
to 20 degrees colder in the southern poconos. The change should
be less severe near the coast (which will be cooler on Wednesday
given the onshore flow). Kept most of Thursday dry given the
subsidence upstream of the front.

An upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward into the great
lakes Thursday night, and this is where much of the forecast
uncertainty lies. The GFS is much more progressive with this
trough than the cmc and especially the ecmwf. The GFS has
trended stronger with the first trough in eastern canada and
weaker with the second, which does not agree with the recent
trends of the NAM or ecmwf. Additionally, there is very large
variation in the upstream flow run-to-run with the gfs. The
stronger agreement between the cmc ECMWF made me lower the
weighting of gfs-based guidance Friday onward, and I may not
have done so enough.

The main effects on the forecast are with precipitation chances
Friday night and Saturday, with the GFS about 6-12 hours faster
in general (more Friday night versus early Saturday for the
cmc ecmwf). For now, kept the highest pops late Friday night (a
compromise of the two camps), but my suspicion is that pops need
to linger into a portion of Saturday, especially for the
eastern zones. Trended this direction with the forecast, but
expect further (perhaps substantial) changes with pops during
this period.

Cool dry high pressure moves in thereafter, with a prolonged
period of near to slightly below seasonal temperatures Saturday
onward. Models have large phase amplitude variations with the
midlevel ridge developing in the east during this period, so the
duration of the cool dry spell is a little uncertain at this
point.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MainlyVFR at our eight TAF sites through the balance of the
day. Fog stratus looks to redevelop late tonight with sub-vfr
conditions likely once again.

E-ne winds will increase to 5-10 kt, except at kacy, where e-ne
winds will increase to 10-20 kt.

Lgt vrb winds tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible, especially from the
urban corridor eastward, with gradual improvement toVFR from
northwest to southeast during the day. Some showers possible at
kmiv kacy. Northeast winds 5 to 15 kts with stronger gusts near
the coast (up to 25 kts or so). Confidence below average.

Wednesday night and Thursday: winds should become
north northwest as a cold front sweeps through the region. May
see some lingering showers low clouds at kmiv kacy Wednesday
night. Speeds should reach 10 to 20 kts on Thursday, with higher
gusts possible. Confidence average.

Thursday night and Friday: predominantlyVFR. Northwest winds 5
to 15 kts. Confidence above average.

Friday night and Saturday: showers and localized sub-vfr
cigs vsbys possible. Winds generally north or northwest around
10 kts. Confidence well below average.

Marine
Small craft advisory continues today and tonight for the ocean
waters. Seas on the ocean will build to 8-9 feet. NE winds will
range from 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for southern nj and
de ocean waters. Otherwise, NE winds range from 10-15 kt.

With these increasing offshore seas, can expect breaking waves
at the shores of around 7 feet at southern nj and de beaches. A
high surf advisory has been issued for tonight through Wednesday
for southern nj and de coastal areas.

Outlook...

Wednesday: northeast winds with gusts above 25 kts likely in
the southern nj de coastal atlantic, trending lighter in
delaware bay and the northern central marine zones. Seas near 10
feet in the atlantic, with rough surf likely. A high surf
advisory continues for the southern nj delaware beaches. Showers
possible.

Wednesday night: gradual decrease in winds, though advisory-
level gusts still possible south of atlantic city. Seas will be
slow to decline. A chance of showers.

Thursday and Thursday night: cold frontal passage will increase
winds to advisory level in the atlantic waters and potentially
delaware bay. Seas well above advisory criteria.

Friday: seas nearing but likely still above 5 feet, but winds
should diminish below advisory criteria.

Friday night and Saturday: sub-advisory conditions expected,
but a chance of showers.

Rip currents...

due to swells emanating from hurricane maria, there continues
to be a high risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for the ocean beaches today and
tonight.

The rip current risk will likely be in the high category
Wednesday and Thursday as long-period southeasterly swells from
maria continue. Swell heights around or above 10 feet on
Wednesday will likely generate high surf beach erosion issues
for much of the surf zone but especially for southern new jersey
and delaware. Overall, not a good time to spend at the beach
the next few days.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through Wednesday afternoon for njz014-
024>026.

High surf advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Wednesday for njz024-025.

De... High rip current risk through Wednesday afternoon for dez004.

High surf advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Wednesday for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Thursday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Iovino
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi49 min ENE 17 G 19 72°F 74°F1014.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi49 min NNE 8 G 11 72°F 74°F1014.2 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi89 min NNE 18 G 21 69°F 71°F7 ft1014.4 hPa (-1.0)69°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi49 min NE 14 G 15 75°F 1015.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 15 77°F 75°F1014.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi109 min NE 4.1 74°F 1016 hPa69°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi49 min 75°F 77°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi25 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast76°F68°F77%1014.6 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi26 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1014 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi25 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10E9E9E6E6E5E8E8NE7E6E6NE6NE6E8NE8NE9E5NE9NE11NE14NE12NE12NE12NE11
1 day agoE9E6NE5SE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE6NE8NE3NE10E9E7
2 days agoN9N8N4N3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--NE53NE7NE8NE96

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Tue -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.60.70.80.80.70.50.40.30.20.20.30.50.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:43 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.70.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.20.30.71.11.10.90.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.