Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 330 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure and its associated cold front will move offshore and south of the region today. A secondary cold front weakens as it crosses the area tonight, followed by brief high pressure Friday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system organizing over the mississippi valley will lead to a warm frontal passage on Saturday and a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region on Monday and moves off the eastern seaboard by mid-week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210735
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
335 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure and its associated cold front will move offshore and
south of the region today. A secondary cold front weakens as it
crosses the area tonight, followed by brief high pressure Friday.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system organizing over the mississippi
valley will lead to a warm frontal passage on Saturday and a cold
frontal passage on Sunday. Canadian high pressure builds into the
region on Monday and moves off the eastern seaboard by mid-week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The cold front should continue to slowly make progress south through
the morning hours as the surface low propagates further offshore.

The main question will be how far south the front is by this
afternoon. If it remains over northern delmarva, as some models are
depicting, showers could continue across DELMARVA through the day.

Otherwise, once the morning showers dissipate most of the region
should be dry through the day.

Behind the cold front, expect only a modest (<5 degrees) cool down
as compared to yesterday. However, the bigger impact will be with
dew point temperatures, as behind the front dew points are expected
to be in the 50s across the region (compare with dew points in the
60s and 70s early this morning). Consequently, there won't be much
difference between the heat index and air temperature today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
A secondary cold front is expected to sink south tonight. However,
it will be rather diffuse as it does so. Expecting mostly dry
conditions across the region, except in DELMARVA where the first
front could continue to provide a focus for shower development if it
stalls over northern delmarva.

Onshore flow developing late tonight may promote low clouds to
spread over the coastal plains late tonight.

For areas west of the fall line, lower dew points and clearing skies
will mean low temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights include widespread precipitation late Friday into the
first half of the weekend, with a chance of strong thunderstorms on
Saturday. Additional rounds of showers with embedded thunder are
likely Sunday. A drying trend commences Sunday night with fair
weather expected through Wednesday. While an onshore at times will
make for cooler temperatures down the shore, for the remainder of
the area, temperatures at or slightly above normal through the
period.

Synoptically, a closed low over the middle mississippi valley will
eject northeastward into the eastern great lakes by Friday. This
sets the stage for a deep layer southwest flow Friday night into
Saturday, until the shortwave associated with the aforementioned low
moves across the region. The longwave trough will finally traverse
the area on Monday, and will be followed by broad mid-level ridging
through Wednesday.

Friday... Onshore flow develops between high pressure south of nova
scotia and a northward advancing warm front to our south. This will
promote an overunning regime, but with high pressure providing a
source of dry low-level air, precipitation will initially struggle
to enter the region. The GFS is the most progressive in bringing
precip across the region during the day, while the NAM is too dry,
and the ECMWF and rgem are toward the middle of the envelope. The
synoptic setup supports the latter two solutions, so continued to
confine chc pops southwest of the i-42 to i-476 corridors. With the
proximity of the warm front and increasing instability, continued a
slight chance of thunder across the southern md and de during the
afternoon and evening.

Friday night through Saturday night... Above the surface, a deep
southwesterly flow out ahead of the next shortwave will advect
precipitable water values up to 2 inches (1 to 2 std dev above
normal) into the region. Expect strong isentropic ascent just north
of the warm front to produce widespread rainfall Friday night, which
will be heavy at times, leading to the potential for poor drainage
flooding. By Saturday, the warm front will struggle to move north of
the area bounded by the i-276 to i-95 and i-78 corridors. Near and
especially to the south of this area, there will be the potential
for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. This is supported by
surface based CAPE values up to 2000 j kg and bulk shear around 40
kts. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates will steepen, with soundings
exhibiting an inverted-v profile, albeit weak. Therefore, storms
will have the potential to produce strong winds. Thunderstorms near
the warm front where lcls are lower will also have to be watched for
rotation, given moderate 0-1 km shear.

Sunday... A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with the
cold front off to the west.

Sunday night through Wednesday...

showers and storms with the cold front discussed above will
sweep through the area with the front Sunday night into early
Monday followed by clearing skies by late Monday along with
falling dew points and temperatures near seasonal. Beyond this
time, a sprawling area of high pressure looks to build in from
the north bringing mainly clear skies with seasonable
temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through mid week.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Once the showers and patchy fog dissipate by mid morning,
expectVFR conditions across the region through the remainder of the
day. At most TAF sites, winds should be light and nne through the
day. However, a sea breeze is likely to develop this afternoon and
could affect kacy and kmiv, turning winds to southeasterly mid to
late afternoon. Moderate confidence on the sea breeze, but high
confidence on the other aspects of the forecast.

Tonight... Conditions should start asVFR. However, there is a chance
for MVFR ceilings especially at kacy and kmiv after 06z. Winds may
start out light and variable this evening, but settle out of the
east after 06z. High confidence for the forecast at most TAF sites,
moderate confidence in the forecast for kmiv and kacy.

Outlook...

Friday... PredominantlyVFR. Cannot rule out brief MVFR ceilings in
shra. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph, especially acy and phl.

Medium confidence.

Friday night... Low clouds and potential fog will lead MVFR, with
ifr possible, especially late. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph.

Low confidence.

Saturday... Conditions gradually improving to MVFR, withVFR possible
by afternoon, especially i-95 corridor terminals. But shra and tsra
will lead to brief ceiling visibility restrictions. Southwest winds.

Medium confidence.

Saturday night... A return to low clouds and potential fog with
MVFR, and even ifr possible. Winds shifting to the northwest.

Low confidence.

Sunday... Any low clouds and fog will dissipate with a return to
mainlyVFR until a late day risk of storms could bring brief
restrictions. Winds west-southwest. Medium confidence.

Sunday night... Showers and thunderstorms possible along with
brief ceiling visibility restrictions. Low confidence.

Monday... Becoming mainlyVFR. Medium confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory criteria
today and tonight. However, wind gusts near or just above 20 kt will
be possible very late tonight.

Rip currents...

low risk expected on Thursday.

A moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is
outlooked Friday and Saturday due to easterly wind gusts up to 25
mph and wave heights building up to around 5 ft in the surf zone.

Outlook...

the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and an
approaching warm front to the south likely leads to continued
sca winds seas Friday and Friday night. As the warm front moves
across the waters, a brisk southwest flow promotes SCA level
seas through at least Saturday. A return to more tranquil, sub-
sca boating conditions is expected Sunday into mid next week.

Tides coastal flooding
With a persistent onshore flow developing Thursday night and
continuing through early Saturday, increasingly positive
departures from astronomical tides are expected. The guidance
has also trended upward over the past day. The high tide of most
concern is Friday night, when minor flooding is possible along
the oceanfront of de and nj.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lf
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Lf
aviation... Johnson lf
marine... Johnson lf
tides coastal flooding... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi55 min W 7 G 8.9 75°F 70°F1006.6 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi55 min W 5.1 G 6 75°F 71°F1006.9 hPa
OCSM2 18 mi187 min 1 ft
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi77 min SSW 9.7 G 12 73°F 73°F2 ft1007.2 hPa (-1.7)73°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi49 min W 15 G 16 75°F 1006.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi49 min W 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 72°F1006.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi157 min Calm 73°F 1008 hPa73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi49 min 73°F 82°F1008 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi73 minW 38.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F96%1006.9 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi74 minWSW 79.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1006.8 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi73 minWNW 45.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1007 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE3NE3CalmCalmSE3SW53E10S9SE8SE11S10S6S6S5S5S7S8SW4SW4SW3W3W3
1 day agoSW6SW5W4W4W4NW7
G16
NW7N7N9NE8NE9NE8NE8NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3SE3CalmS4SW4SW746W7S10SW8SW10SW7SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7SW6SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Thu -- 12:11 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.30.2000.10.40.60.9110.80.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM EDT     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 PM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.21.41.10.70.1-0.5-0.9-1.3-1.4-1-0.50.211.41.410.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.1-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.