Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday February 24, 2018 12:55 PM EST (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 1:55AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 908 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming E late. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Patchy fog. Patchy drizzle this morning, then a slight chance of rain early this afternoon. A chance of rain late. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the evening. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Patchy drizzle in the evening. Rain likely. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt early in the afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle early in the morning, then a chance of rain in the late morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 908 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will move slowly northward tonight into Sunday. A low pressure system will cross to the north of our area with its attendant cold front moving through Sunday night. High pressure will build into the region through midweek. A backdoor cold front will drop down through the region on Wednesday, followed by an area of low pressure crossing the area Thursday and perhaps intensifying along the coast early Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 241710
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1210 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front south of delaware into central virginia will edge
north into southern new jersey Sunday morning where low pressure
will develop on this front and scoot out to sea in the afternoon.

The trailing cold front will stall in the carolinas Monday
awaiting the passage of another wave of low pressure to our
southeast. Strengthening high pressure builds into the mid
atlantic states Tuesday. A cold front will drop down through the
region on Wednesday. Low pressure crosses our area Thursday,
probably intensifying into a large storm somewhere off the mid
atlantic or new england coast Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The primary forecast challenges today will be lingering fog
across portions of far southern nj and delmarva, the extent of
precipitation moving in from the west and high temperatures.

Indications are that fog will continue into the early afternoon
from CAPE may county into the southern half of delaware and the
eastern shore of maryland. We will extend the special weather
statement, as visibilities have not dipped below 1 4 mile.

Precipitation will initially be concentrated along the pa
turnpike into early afternoon as drier air has worked in just
north of this area, as evidenced by the Sun breaking out this
morning. As the atmosphere gradually saturates, the precip
will fill in north of this area later in the afternoon,
especially north of i-78.

Temperature-wise, no major changes. Areas mainly north of the
pa turnpike did see an upward bump this morning with the sun
breaking out but will soon cloud over, so this should not have
a big impact on the forecast.

Previous discussion...

several changes were made to the forecast today. Fog is getting
dense in chester county and the maryland eastern shore. Have
issued a dense fog advisory through 8 am for these areas, and
there is at least some chance the advisory may need to be
carried eastward into delaware given short-term model forecasts
and recent trends in dov ged surface observations. Visibility
should improve by mid to late morning, but patchy fog and even
some drizzle look to remain through much of the day across the
area.

This leads to concern number two, which is the forecast highs today.

Inherited forecast simply looks too warm for the given pattern.

Despite potential for rising cloud bases (albeit gradually) during
the day, the overcast will very likely stick around. Though it has
been a warm february, it is still february -- and with my
pessimistic sky forecast today, I am awfully skeptical temperatures
will reach the upper 50s in portions of SE pa S nj. Generally, i
lowered temperatures 3-5 degrees across the area, and I am wondering
if this is enough, especially if this morning's observations agree
with the colder nam. Forecast temps may require more fine-tuning in
future updates, but I felt that starting the trend downward was
warranted.

Several midlevel perturbations move northeastward into the northern
mid-atlantic today, and with favorable positioning of the northern-
stream 250-mb jet MAX (right-entrance region dynamics in play)
combined with low-level isentropic ascent along north of a
baroclinic zone stretching zonally across the region, periodic bouts
of rain look to occur in the CWA beginning this afternoon,
especially north of the mason-dixon line. There is still some
variability in timing of the precipitation, so I kept hourly pops in
the 50-80 percent range for the afternoon until there is more solid
agreement amongst the hi-res models. Nevertheless, rain is a pretty
good bet in pa nj this afternoon with diminishing chances in
southern md de. QPF is generally a quarter inch or less through 00z
Sunday, though amounts may be a little higher than that in the
poconos and lehigh valley if the more aggressive models are
correct.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
One round of rain should be diminishing and moving away from the
region during the evening hours, but conditions will likely once
again be favorable for low clouds, fog, and drizzle during this
time. Trended pops downward during the evening hours, but maintained
categorical pops after midnight as the next round of rain is
expected to move in. Kept mention of fog through the night, but
generally kept drizzle confined to the evening hours, as steadier
rain is more likely after midnight, especially north of the mason-
dixon line.

This next round of rain will occur as yet another vort max
approaches the region in midlevel southwesterly flow between 06z and
12z Sunday. Isentropic ascent poleward of the quasi-stationary
baroclinic zone will allow for precipitation to break out again
(with help from the steady 250-mb jet MAX to our north). The
enhanced ascent provided by the stronger vort max, the slowly
poleward-moving warm front, and the considerable upper-level
divergence aided by the jet MAX will likely lead to more formidable
rainfall totals during this period. Generally, amounts should be
approaching a half inch to an inch north of the mason-dixon line by
night's end with lighter amounts to the south. Fairly decent
agreement among hi-res models on qpf, so confidence is slightly
above average.

Temperatures will not fall too much as the warm front makes its move
(slowly) northward, overcast conditions continue, and warm advection
curtails nocturnal cooling. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper
30s in the poconos and northwest new jersey to the mid to upper 40s
southeast of the fall line. Will need to keep an eye on temperatures
in the poconos, as models tend to have a warm bias in this area
north of warm fronts, and even a couple degrees cooler could mean at
least a chance for some isolated slick spots. For now, chances are
too low for mention.

Long term Sunday through Friday
This section will update by 4pm but here is a draft of the
thinking, taking into the 12z 24 cycle of nam, gfs, ggem and
ukmet.

Hazards: none explicitly and maybe there wont be any this long
term period but potential exists for a small stream hydro
hazard somewhere in the CWA Friday, and possible winter wx
hazard, a possible coastal flood hazard depending on the position
of the western atlantic cyclone as well as its intensity and a
gale event, again dependent on the latitude of the cyclone.

500 mb: a short wave in the mid mississippi valley Sunday night will
cross the mid atlantic coast Monday evening with east coast ridging
to follow during mid week. Then a weakening closed low in the desert
southwest Wednesday morning starts reenergizing in the ohio valley
Thursday, becoming a large cyclonic circulation system along the
mid atlantic coast Friday, slowly weakening seaward next weekend.

Temperatures: please see the climate section for updated february
climate stats. Calendar day averages should be around 10 degrees
above normal Monday, nearly 8 degrees above normal Tuesday, around
10 degrees above normal Wednesday, 10 to 15 degrees above normal
Thursday, before cooling to between 5 and 10 above normal Friday
and 5 degrees or less above normal next Saturday.

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted, a 50 50 blend of the 12z 24
gfs nam MOS will be used Sunday night - Monday night, the 12z 24
gfs mex MOS for Tuesday, and the 15z 24 wpc 12 hr elements of
max min temp and pop, as well as 6 hourly dewpoint wind sky for
Wednesday- Saturday.

The dailies...

Sunday night... Variable high cloudiness. Northwest wind.

Confidence: well above average.

Monday... Northwest wind gust 15 mph during the day and possibly 15
to 20 mph at night as instability transfer deepens with cold
air advection aloft. Considerable mid and high cloudiness into
early afternoon Monday then clearing late in the day and at night.

The short wave may spread a little rain northward into southern
de for a time during the day. Confidence: above average.

Tuesday... Sunny and beautiful! Light wind. Confidence: well
above average.

Wednesday... Partly sunny (lots of cirrus) and a few degrees warmer.

Southwest wind may gust 20 mph in the afternoon. Confidence:
above average.

Wednesday night-Thursday... In association with either a cold frontal
passage or a warm front east-southeastward extension from the midwest
low pressure system, a period of rain is possible, primarily
within 4 hours of sunrise. Winds becoming east, but may shift west
late Thursday? Confidence: much below average on any details.

Friday into Saturday... Gusty north to northwest winds and
periods of precipitation. For now rain most of Friday and
thereafter unknown. Confidence: below average

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Ifr to lifr conditions in low clouds and fog were
beginning to lift this morning, albeit temporarily at some
locations. Still some uncertainty with regard to timing the
improvement in CIGS vsbys with MVFR or evenVFR possible this
afternoon. The exception will be abe and rdg, where periods of
rain this afternoon should maintain MVFR ceilings. Winds
becoming northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight... Prolonged sub-vfr conditions likely as fog drizzle are
expected this evening followed by steadier rain after midnight.

Winds generally east or northeast under 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

this section will further update by 4pm.

Sunday... Ifr conditions expected with limited improvement
through the day. Confidence is low that we will return toVFR during
the day. East to southeast winds will become southwest to west by
the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night... Improving toVFR cirrus by midnight. Any rain showers
will taper Sunday evening and conditions are expected to improve.

Northwest wind. Confidence: well above average.

Monday...VFR bkn-ovc clouds AOA 8000 ft, clearing late.

Northwest wind gusting 15-20 kt, especially late day.

Confidence: above average. A little concerned about low pressure
forming vcnty N carolina and spreading rain into southern de for
a time during the morning.

Tuesday...VFR virtually clear. Light wind. Confidence: well above
average.

Wednesday...VFR cirrus. Southwest winds may gust 20 kt during the
afternoon. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... Will be added at 4pm.

Marine
Generally sub-advisory winds seas expected through this evening.

However, winds will begin to increase on the northern central nj
coastal waters late tonight as east to northeast winds begin to
crank up in response to an approaching storm system. Have issued a
small craft advisory for these areas beginning at 3 am Sunday.

Visibility restrictions are expected to continue through this
evening for delaware bay and the atlantic coastal waters of
southern new jersey and delaware, so the dense fog advisory was
extended through 7 pm. Another round of dense fog is possible
tonight.

Rain chances will increase this afternoon and tonight, especially
off the nj coast.

Outlook...

this section will further update by 4pm.

Sunday... Seas are expected to build and exceed 5 feet on the
ocean on Sunday. Winds also pick up through the day Sunday with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible. Confidence: average.

Sunday night... Lingering SCA seas possible. Confidence: average.

Monday through Wednesday... Sub-advisory conditions are expected on
the area waters with northwest winds gusting 15-20 kt Monday
becoming light Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday.

Confidence: average.

Thursday... Will be added at 4 pm.

Hydrology
Periods of rain through the weekend could result in minor and
poor drainage flooding. The heaviest rain is expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when up to additional inch of rain will fall.

By the time the rain ends Monday morning, the region will have
received between 1 and 2 inches of rain since Thursday, with the
highest amounts falling over the northern third of the forecast
area. By Sunday night and Monday, there will be rises on areas
rivers and streams, with some possibly approaching bankful.

Of note will be how much rain falls over the susquehanna, as
there is the potential for inconvenience flooding below the
conowingo dam on Monday.

Climate
**top 3 warmest february on record and top 10 wettest february
on record.**
february projected climate ranking as of noon today-Saturday feb 24,
based on our mid shift fcst through the 28th and mins this Saturday
morning; and for rainfall, amounts 1201 am today. Rdg and ttn not
included due to too much missing data.

Abe #3 warmest 38.0 or 7.3f warmer than the 30.7 norm.

39.2-2017
38.6-1998
38.0-2018
36.8-1954
acy #1 warmest 42.7 or 7.4f warmer than the 35.3 norm.

43.0 -2017
42.7 -2018
40.6 -1954
ilg #3 warmest 41.3 or 6.3f warmer than the 35.0 norm.

43.1-2017
42.3-1903
41.3-2018
41.2-1976
phl #3 warmest 42.5 or 6.8f warmer than the 35.7 norm.

44.2-2017
42.5-2018
42.2-1925
41.8-1998
41.4-1890
water equivalent february pcpn
phl ranked #10 with 5.30". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 6.87-1896
ilg ranked #8 with 5.48". An additional .50 would raise to #5
all time 7.02-1979
abe ranked #13 with 4.47". An additional .50 would raise to #5.

All time 7.62-2008
acy ranked #2 with 6.12". Wettest is 6.50-2010. Our expectation
still is that acy will exceed the previous all time record rainfall
for february, by the end of the weekend. It could be a close
though.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz452>455.

Dense fog advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz430-431-
453>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz450-451.

Synopsis... Drag 1210p
near term... Cms franck
short term... Cms
long term... Drag 1210p
aviation... Cms franck miketta
marine... Cms franck miketta
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi37 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 48°F 44°F1021 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi37 min S 2.9 G 5.1 46°F 44°F1021.2 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi65 min S 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 43°F2 ft1021.5 hPa (-1.6)45°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi43 min NNE 11 G 11 47°F 1021.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi37 min N 8 G 11 48°F 43°F1020.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi145 min E 2.9 48°F 1022 hPa48°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi43 min 52°F 47°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi61 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist54°F53°F97%1021.1 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi62 minS 55.00 miFog/Mist50°F50°F100%1021.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi61 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast61°F57°F90%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7N6E4E4S5CalmCalmCalmW3SW6SW6SW4SW9SW5W4SW4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE14E13E8NE10NE15NE15
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2 days agoSW16
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SW11S8SW9SW8SW7SW6SW74W43N9NE8NE9E11E13E12E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Sat -- 01:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:35 AM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:17 PM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.30.20.10.10.10.30.50.70.80.80.60.50.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:57 AM EST     1.63 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:58 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:43 PM EST     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM EST     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.61.40.80.2-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.700.71.21.310.4-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.60.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.