Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:44PM Sunday December 17, 2017 7:49 AM CST (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 4:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester, MO
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location: 38.58, -90.53     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 171138
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
538 am cst Sun dec 17 2017

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 330 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
large area of light rain continues to slowly move northeast early
this morning across missouri. This area is being forced by low
level moisture convergence underneath mid level ascent ahead of a
upper level low. This area of rain will continue to move northeast
this morning, but models are showing that the band of rain will lose
its areal coverage as it passes through. This will be because the
upper low is opening up so the mid level ascent will weaken at the
same time the low level jet will also be weakening. Will only keep
a brief window of likely pops moving northeast across the area this
morning with mainly dry conditions this afternoon and this evening
as shortwave ridging moves over the area. Model guidance shows low
level moisture will stay over the area through tonight, with the
potential for patchy fog and some drizzle overnight.

With clouds and the chance of rain, highs will not be as warm today
as they were yesterday, though they will be above mid december
normals. Went with highs close to both the MOS and SREF mean temps.

Lows tonight will be closer to normal highs.

Britt

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 330 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
the models are still showing considerable evolution in the upper air
pattern over noam over the next 7+ days, and with the 00z model
cycle the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement in the
overall trends. The upcoming week begins featuring a defined split
flow regime with a fast broadly cyclonic flow across the northern
tier and closed low in the southwestern u.S.. By next weekend there
has been an increasing trend of a highly amplified pattern across
noam with a vortex in the vicinity of hudson bay and southward
extending broad deep trof through the nation's midsection. In
terms of sensible weather this evolution would largely support
above average temperatures for much of the upcoming week, with
below average temperatures closing out next weekend.

As stated above, the week ahead will feature above normal temps
through Thursday. The big potential caveat to the intensity of the
mild temps on Monday will be clouds. Stratus will likely blanket the
area at daybreak, and maybe some patchy fog drizzle. Southwest-
westerly lower tropospheric flow will prevail and increase some
through the day, resulting in pronounced WAA and also helping with
the clearing process. The GFS suggests west-east clearing in the
afternoon whereas the NAM is a bit slower from late afternoon through
evening. If the faster solution is correct then highs could be a
good 3-5 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Tuesday will feature
a cold front moving across the area. The front will be located in
the vicinity of the ia mo border at 12z, moving to near i-70 by
midday, and clearing the CWA by early evening. Good low level waa
will continue ahead of the front, and at least immediately behind
the front the air is not all that cold. Thus another day of mild
december temps, around 15-20 degrees above average.

Surface high pressure will continue to settle southward into the
area on Tuesday night, then gradually retreat to the east on
Wednesday. This air mass will be cooler than the preceding days, but
still above average. There has been some model disagreement on the
potential for some light rain late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday associated with southern stream upper low trof moving from
the southern plains into and through the lower ms valley. The
nam GFS continue to show a weaker system and keep any precipitation
south of the area, more along the track across ar into the tn
valley. The ecwmf while showing some southward shift, continues to
have a bit stronger solution and generates some light precipitation
across southern mo including the far southern cwa, primarily late
Tuesday night. Heading into the later part of the week, both the
gfs and ECMWF are now slower with the late week cold FROPA associated
with the deepening and eventually progressive positively tilted
western upper trof as it phases with the northern stream. Both
models keep the front west of the CWA through mid evening on
Thursday, and then vary slightly on the orientation and speed of
the front into and through the CWA late Thursday night into Friday
morning. The slower solutions and later arrival of deeper cold
air now suggest that there may be little to no wintry post-frontal
precipitation.

The increasing trend of the ECMWF and GFS towards a highly amplified
pattern over noam and dominance of a deep broad upper trof by the
end of the week into early next week suggest: 1) we could be in
store for some very cold air, well below normal and 2) any snow will
be light and associated with disturbances rotating within the
cyclonic upper flow of the trof. This is very far off in the
forecast and it will be something to monitor in the days ahead.

Glass

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 524 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
light rain will move through the terminals this morning. Ceilings
and visibilities will be lowVFR or MVFR initially. Then MVFR
ceilings are expected to move into the area the rest of the
period. Some light drizzle and fog may develop between 06-15z
which may also reduce visibilities into the MVFR range. Winds will
generally stay light out of the southwest through the period.

Specifics for kstl:
light rain will move into the terminals by 15z and end by early
afternoon. Ceilings with the rain will fall into the lowVFR
range this morning, but then become MVFR the rest of the period
starting this afternoon. Some light drizzle and fog may develop
between 06-15z which may also reduce visibilities into the MVFR
range. Winds will generally stay light out of the southwest
through the period.

Britt

Preliminary point temps pops
Saint louis 48 43 57 43 70 20 20 5
quincy 46 40 52 38 70 20 20 0
columbia 48 41 55 42 70 20 20 5
jefferson city 49 41 56 42 80 20 20 5
salem 46 41 54 42 70 20 20 5
farmington 44 40 56 43 80 20 20 5

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO8 mi55 minN 010.00 miOvercast46°F30°F54%1017.4 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO15 mi58 minS 310.00 miOvercast45°F30°F56%1017.7 hPa
St. Louis Downtown Airport, IL20 mi56 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast43°F30°F63%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8
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S6S7S5S5S5Calm3E3S3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW5W8W9W10W13SW9W9W10SW7SW6CalmCalmNW3Calm3NW3SW6SW8SW10SW8SW8SW8SW10
G16
2 days agoNE8NE6NE5N5CalmN4N5NW4NW4CalmCalmW3NW6W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW6SW5SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.