Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:14PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:12 AM CDT (06:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester, MO
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location: 38.58, -90.53     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 220417
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
1117 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017

Update
Issued at 918 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
a cold front was moving southeastward through northwestern mo
this evening. A line of convection was along this front with
trailing stratiform precipitation behind it. Isolated showers had
recently developed across parts of northeast and central mo well
ahead of the cold front. The line of convection will gradually
weaken as it moves into northeast and central mo around midnight
due to waning instability, but could still generate brief heavy
downpours along with strong gusty winds. Looking at the latest
hrrr model runs this convection will not likely get into the st
louis metro area until very late tonight and early Sunday morning,
and by this time should have weakened quite a bit and be mainly in
the form of disorganized scattered showers. Unseasonably warm
temperatures can be expected tonight ahead of the cold front,
particularly across southeast and east central mo and southwest
il due to the cloud cover, gusty southerly winds, and relatively
high surface dew points. Lows in st louis metro area tonight will
be around 15 degrees above normal.

Gks

Short term (through late Sunday afternoon)
issued at 308 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
main issue continues to be the cold front that will slide east
across region tonight through midday on Sunday. Models have decent
sfc based capes thru this evening, then diminish quickly after 06z.

With slower onset of precipitation and weakening instability, feel
that as line of storms approach cwa, they will weaken and expect
mainly widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms with passage of
front. Still not ruling out isolated strong to severe storms for
portions of central northeast mo late this evening.

Models now more in agreement with upper level trof deepening and
cutting off late in the day on Sunday. This will slow exit of
activity on back side of system, especially for eastern half of
forecast area.

As for temperatures, will see mild lows for one more night, in the
low 50s to mid 60s. Then on Sunday, morning highs in the low 60s to
low 70s, then steady or falling temperatures during the afternoon
hours.

Byrd

Long term (Sunday night through next Saturday)
issued at 308 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
period begins with amplified flow as a deep trof becomes
cut off across the region. Mdls are still struggling with this
feature. However, the 12z guidance is in much better agreement than
prev cycles and confidence is building. Still, have kept low pops on
mon to account for a potential slower soln.

After a brief warmup on mon, another cdfnt pushes thru the region
mon afternoon as a deep low develops over the great lakes region.

The area shud remain seasonable cool with reinforcing shots of cold
air. A couple of clippers will help to warm temps as well. Mdls
differ late in the period with exactly how much cold air will arrive
fri into Sat as another cdfnt pushes thru the region. The GFS ecmwf
both point to low chances of snow Fri night into sat, perhaps even
longer into Sat morning than currently forecast. A lot can change
between now and next weekend, but will be an event to monitor.

Tilly

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1055 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
cold front extending from eastern mn south-southwest through
northwestern mo into south central ok will move southeastward
through the TAF sites late tonight and Sunday morning. There was a
line of thunderstorms along this front which will move into uin
and cou shortly after midnight, and eventually into the st louis
metro area by early Sunday morning. The convection should slowly
weaken in intensity late tonight as the instability wanes. There
was also scattered showers and storms ahead of the front between
jef and uin. Lingering light showers may continue in uin and cou
during at least much of Sunday morning and in the st louis metro
area Sunday afternoon due to a slow moving upper level disturbance
behind the cold front. MVFR CIGS will advect into the TAF sites
late tonight and early Sunday morning along and behind the cold
front. The ceiling should gradually improve toVFR conditions
Sunday afternoon. The southerly surface winds will veer around to
a northwesterly direction after FROPA in uin and cou towards early
Sunday morning and in the st louis metro area by early Sunday
afternoon. There will be a strong southwesterly low level jet late
tonight which will lead to some llws conditions at the TAF sites,
but it appears that there will be enough nocturnal mixing to keep
the surface wind up so it will not likely be strong enough to
include in the tafs.

Specifics for kstl: cold front extending from eastern mn
south-southwest through northwestern mo into south central ok
will move southeastward through the stl area early Sunday
morning. There was a line of thunderstorms along this front which
will move into the stl area by early Sunday morning. The
convection should slowly weaken in intensity late tonight as the
instability wanes. There was also scattered showers and storms
ahead of the front between jef and uin which may shift southeast
into stl late tonight. Lingering light showers may continue in
the stl area Sunday afternoon due to a slow moving upper level
disturbance behind the cold front. MVFR CIGS will advect into the
stl area late tonight and early Sunday morning along and behind
the cold front. The ceiling should gradually improve toVFR
conditions Sunday afternoon. The southerly surface winds will veer
around to a northwesterly direction after FROPA in stl by early
Sunday afternoon. There will be a strong southwesterly low level
jet late tonight which will lead to some llws conditions, but it
appears that there will be enough nocturnal mixing to keep the
surface wind up so it will not likely be strong enough to include
in the taf.

Gks

Preliminary point temps pops
Saint louis 64 66 50 70 90 90 30 10
quincy 57 61 45 68 100 70 5 0
columbia 55 61 44 70 100 60 5 0
jefferson city 57 62 43 71 100 70 5 5
salem 64 72 50 67 60 90 60 40
farmington 63 67 47 70 90 90 40 20

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO8 mi18 minSE 7 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F62°F69%1012.7 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO15 mi21 minSSE 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F62°F73%1013.5 hPa
St. Louis Downtown Airport, IL20 mi19 minSE 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast73°F61°F66%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmE3CalmSE5S4S8S6S45S8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4S6S7456SE6SE5SE5SE35S5SE4E6S4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8W75SW4S5SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.