Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:57PM Saturday February 24, 2018 4:59 AM EST (09:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 337 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with patchy heavy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less...building to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will approach the waters as a warm front this morning and it will remain nearby through tonight before eventually moving to the north Sunday. A cold front will pass through from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for at least a portion of the waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240850
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
350 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A stationary boundary situated across our area will gradually lift
northward as a warm front through Sunday. A cold front will then
pass through from the west by Sunday evening, with high pressure
building in to the region through early next week.

Near term through tonight
Much of the area is covered in low clouds early this morning that
are trapped below a hefty inversion based just a couple thousand
feet off the ground, as sampled by the 00z kiad sounding. Atop this
inversion is a nice wedge of warm air aloft, with temperatures in
the middle 50s at about 5kft. Back at the surface, temperatures
early this morning range from the lower 40s west of the blue ridge
to middle to upper 40s along and south of the d.C. Metro area. Areas
of dense fog have been persistent, relegated mainly along and north
of the district, encompassing baltimore and northeast md. A dense
fog advisory remains in effect until 8am this morning for these
areas.

Outside of light drizzle in the fog plagued areas, the klwx radar is
mostly echo free. Do expect this to continue to be the case much of
the morning across the area, at least east of the blue ridge
mountains. We will start to see some showers encroach on our western
and northern zones mid to late morning hours as a wave of low
pressure moves northeastward over southern oh and wv. A stationary
boundary snaking down the appalachians and across north carolina
this morning will gain some momentum later today and gradually lift
northward as a warm front through our area into tonight. As a
result, highest rain chances will be this afternoon through the
overnight period. Heaviest rain will be found across western md, the
potomac highlands, and the west virginia panhandle, where a half
inch to an inch of rain could fall by Sunday morning. East of these
areas, a tenth to a quarter of an inch can be expected, with lowest
amounts across southern md. With much of the area residing on the
cool side of the frontal boundary today, temperatures stick in the
upper 40s over northern md to the middle 50s surrounding the metro
areas. The locations favored to reside on the warm side of the
boundaries are the southern portions of the northern piedmont,
central foothills, and the virginia highlands, where highs will near
60 degrees and in to the middle 60s for the warm spots. Lows tonight
won't budge much, with middle 40s to our north to middle 50s to the
south.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Come Sunday morning, a cold front will be moving eastward and
nearing the western portions of our cwa. The aforementioned warm
front will be lifting through and north of our area by Sunday
morning, allowing much warmer temperatures to prevail. High
temperatures will near 70 degrees for much of the area, with the
cooler middle to upper 60s over the northern third of the cwa.

Scattered shower activity Sunday morning will increase by midday as
the front nears from the west. With the warmer temperatures and
dewpoints creeping in to the lower 60s, along with frontogentical
forcing, a slight chance of thunderstorms is possible as the front
crosses the region by Sunday evening. Behind the front, clearing and
drying conditions will win out Sunday night, with temperatures still
above normal for late february, ranging from near 40 degrees to the
north west to around 50 degrees along our southern border.

High pressure will build in from the west as we kick off the work
week. The frontal boundary will linger along the carolina coast on
Monday, with the ECMWF indicating at least some rain chances for our
southern zones. As such, will keep chance pops for these areas on
Monday, but the majority of our CWA will remain dry. Weak CAA behind
the front on Monday will not prevent temperatures from reaching the
upper 50s on Monday, with lows Monday night cooler in to the 30s
area wide as CAA is a bit stronger and 850 temperatures reside at or
just below 0c. This is in response to a low mid level trough
swinging through the region Monday evening.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The middle of the week will be quiet as high pressure will be
overhead. Tuesday will be the sunnier day; moisture will advance
Wednesday due to return flow warm advection as the center of the
high will move into the western atlantic. It remains to be seen if
there will be any showers. GFS pointing that way more than ecmwf.

Will back off pops for the period.

Have greater confidence that the end of the week will end on the wet
side, in spite of guidance timing organizational differences. (ecmwf
placing more emphasis on distinct southern stream shortwave energy
vs triple point from a well-defined northern stream system.) either
solution provides strong evidence of measurable precipitation, and
neither scenario suggests there will be type issues until the back
side (Friday night), when the QPF will be exiting.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Widespread lifr conditions at all area terminals this morning as low
clouds and areas of dense fog envelop the region. Winds remain calm
to light, favoring a southerly trajectory when registered by surface
observations. Lifr vis CIGS will continue through mid morning, with
some improvement to vis, at least in terms of fog coverage, but low
clouds and drizzle will persist. Rain chances increase this
afternoon and evening as a wave of low pressure passes to the
northwest of the terminals. Highest rain chances will be at mrb, but
continued lifr conditions expected through tonight.

A cold front will move through the terminals Sunday afternoon, with
plentiful rain chances and ifr lifr vis CIGS continuing ahead of it.

Southwesterly breezes at around 10 knots, gusting to near 20 knots
during the day on Sunday, will shift out of the northwest Sunday
night and fall to less than 10 knots in the wake of the frontal
passage. Conditions should improve to MVFRVFR Sunday night, and
back toVFR through Monday night as high pressure moves in from the
west. Exception to this on Monday would be cho, where some residual
shower activity is possible as the aforementioned boundary lingers
well to our south. This could result in periods of subVFR
conditions there.

Vfr conditions expected at this time due to high pressure.

Marine
No advisories expected through tonight for our waters as winds will
remain light as a stationary boundary to our south starts to lift
northward as warm front. As a cold front approaches from the west on
Sunday, winds will pick up and become gusty out of the south
southwest Sunday morning, with SCA conditions looking likely through
much of the day on Sunday until the front passes through our waters.

The frontal passage may bring with it a gusty line of showers, with
a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. High pressure will then
build in to the region behind the front through Monday night,
delivering lighter winds across our waters, and sub sca
conditions.

Winds will remain below small craft advisory thresholds due to high
pressure. Southerly flow will increase late Wed in the wake of the
high.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for dcz001.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for mdz003>006-
011-013-014-503>508.

Va... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for vaz053-054-
505-506.

Wv... Dense fog advisory until 8 am est this morning for wvz052-053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Hts
aviation... Bkf hts
marine... Bkf hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 5 mi30 min S 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 1026.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 14 mi42 min S 8 G 8 44°F 1022.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi42 min ESE 6 G 6 45°F 43°F1021.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi42 min 48°F 47°F1022.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi60 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 44°F 42°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi42 min 1021.1 hPa
CPVM2 29 mi42 min 44°F 44°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 5.1
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi42 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 48°F 48°F1021.6 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi42 min ESE 5.1 G 6 48°F 48°F1020.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi42 min SSE 7 G 7 46°F 48°F1022.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 39 mi30 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 1023.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi42 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 49°F1022.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi42 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 45°F 1021.6 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi42 min S 1.9 G 2.9 46°F 1020.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi42 min S 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 45°F1021.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 47 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 44°F1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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N17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi83 minN 00.50 miOvercast50°F48°F94%1023 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi68 minSE 42.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F100%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW5SW3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3E5E5E5E4CalmN3N3NE3NE10
G15
NE5E7NE5NE3NE4NE4NE3E3NE3NE4
2 days agoSW8SW9SW9SW8SW10SW10
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S7S5SW8SW6SW6SW5SW7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Plum Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:13 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.20.50.81110.80.60.40.30.10.10.10.20.40.50.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Sat -- 12:15 AM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:07 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     0.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:49 PM EST     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:32 PM EST     0.17 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.50.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.20.20.10-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.