Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marumsco, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:53 AM EDT (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 432 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Today..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Primarily light winds are expected with high pressure to the south through the remainder of the weekend. Scattered Thunderstorms are likely from this afternoon into tonight. A cold front will move through Monday with additional chances for showers and Thunderstorms, followed by high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. The next frontal system will approach on Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marumsco, VA
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location: 38.61, -77.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230759
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
359 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast. A weak boundary
stretches from central virginia westward to low pressure over
southern illinois. An upper level trough of low pressure will
move over the northeastern us early in the week.

Near term today
Another day, another challenging forecast... Surface analysis
reveals a weak frontal boundary extending from the northern neck
of virginia... Across southern WV back to southern il. This has
provided the trigger for multiple mid summer MCS formation from
va back to mo. This can be seen clearly on IR imagery.

While the storms of Saturday brought the mid atlantic a cooler
overnight the dewpoints remain in the low to mid 70s, and 88d
stp product estimates 2+" rainfall totals over the highlands.

While the beam is scanning higher there, and thoughts of ice
contanimation enter the thought process a check of river stream
gages shows rapid rises (now cresting crested and well below
flood stage). But this area will need to be monitored today if
more heavy rain falls.

While convection moving into southern WV seems like it would be
on a track to potentially impact the southern fringes of our
forecast area the latest hrrr shows the cells tracking NE and
weakening during the morning hours. Models then seem to be in
agreement that more convection will develop this afternoon,
possibly focused over pa. Bottom line is there will be rainfall
across much of the forecast area today - question is where and
how much. For now am holding off on any thoughts of a flood
watch. Dayshift will no doubt reevaluate.

Next concern is severe potential. Model soundings are showing
cape in excess of 1000 this afternoon. Low level wind fields are
weak. The amount of CAPE we receive will be dependent upon the
amount of breaks in cloud sunshine heating the region sees. As
discussed above cloud cover could make heavy rainfall the
greater threat.

And there is still the heat threat. Although not as hot as
during the second half of the week temperatures still reach the
lower 90s... Possibly mid 90s south of dc. This combined with the
extremely moist air mass will cause heat indices to exceed 100
in the i-95 and east area. Question becomes "will these reach
105?" we will ponder this further in the next hour or two.

Short term tonight through Tuesday
Sref implies that the 00-06z timeframe could be busy as far as
heavy rainfall, but it is also hinting that it will be maily
north of our foreast area. Am carrying likely pops across much
of the area this evening. We will remain in this 70+ dewpoint
air mass overnight. Lows therefore will again exceed 70 east of
the mountains.

The heat wave busting short wave will be tracking into the
northeastern us Monday, but relief will not be arriving until
Monday night and Tuesday. Highs Monday again in the low 90s
with the chance for isolated convection.

Tuesday's temperatures will generally top out in the mid to
upper 80s. Dewpoints will fall back into the 60s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Ridge of high pressure will be centered over new england Tuesday
night delivering lower humidity and noticeably cooler weather on low
level northeasterly flow. Lows in the 60s to near 70f.

The high will then quickly shift offshore by Wednesday, with winds
shifting from the northeast to southeast. There could be some
scattered showers thunderstorms south west nearest to the old
frontal boundary and across the higher terrain. High temperatures
likely to be a touch below normal with highs generally in the low to
mid 80s.

By Thursday Friday, the flow will turn around to the southwest ahead
of an approaching frontal system. Temperatures moisture will likely
spike back up ahead of the front, and along with that the chances
for showers thunderstorms. Some uncertainty exists with regards to
the progressiveness of the front, and this will play into the
forecast for Saturday. If front slows or stalls, chances for
showers thunderstorms may persist into the weekend. Highs
Thursday Friday back up to near 90f.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions will prevail through Monday... Outside of
thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening with gusty winds and reduced visibility in
the strongest storms.

Vfr Tuesday.

PredominantlyVFR expected Tuesday night through Thursday. However
there may be some patchy fog low clouds both Wednesday and Thursday
mornings with low level marine flow. Chances for showers thunderstorms
also increase on Thursday.

Marine
Winds will remain below SCA values through Monday. Thunderstorms
capable of producing gusty winds above special marine warning
criteria are possible today.

No marine hazards Monday night or Tuesday.

Mainly sub-sca winds expected Tuesday night through Wednesday,
generally northeasterly Tuesday night, turning southeasterly by
Wednesday. Winds may then approach SCA criteria Wednesday night into
Thursday as they increase out of the south southwest.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Products... Woody! Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 21 mi53 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 87°F1007.3 hPa (-0.9)
NCDV2 22 mi53 min Calm G 1 75°F 87°F1006.8 hPa (-0.7)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi143 min S 1.9 66°F 1008 hPa66°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi43 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 1 ft1008.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi53 min SSW 6 G 7 76°F 84°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 47 mi53 min SSW 11 G 13 78°F 83°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi53 min W 4.1 G 6 76°F 1008.2 hPa (-1.7)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 47 mi53 min 75°F 1007 hPa (-1.0)
44063 - Annapolis 48 mi43 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 1 ft1008.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi53 min S 2.9 G 4.1

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA8 mi57 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F73°F90%1008.2 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA9 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F95%1008 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi57 minN 07.00 miFair73°F72°F96%1009.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi58 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist72°F72°F100%1009.8 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi61 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F96%1007.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD24 mi1.9 hrsS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F96%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3W3NW4NW5NW5NW4S7S7S7SE6NE10NE10N133NE4CalmSE7S8E5E6S7W3SW3
1 day agoNW4NW5NW5CalmCalmNE8N6N6NW4S7S4S5S5SE6SE5W3NW5W4W6NW8NW8NW9NW7NW9
2 days agoW3NW3W3NW3CalmS4S5S7S6S5S6CalmS8S6S7S6S5S7NW10NW6W5NW3NW4NW6

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:21 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.10.30.91.51.92.121.71.30.90.50.2-0-00.40.91.41.71.81.71.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gunston Cove, Virginia
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Gunston Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     New Moon
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.200.20.71.42.12.52.62.41.91.40.90.50.1-0.10.10.71.422.32.31.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.