Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Head, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:24PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:42 AM EDT (07:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:57AMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore of the eastern united states through tonight. A weak cold front will approach the waters Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. High pressure off the southeastern united states coast will then be in control in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night into Monday and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Head, MD
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location: 38.62, -77.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 260118
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
918 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northeast of the area tonight. A weak
cold front will approach from the north Sunday and linger
Monday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle portion
of next week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over much of
the eastern united states.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Warm front remain bisecting forecast area, roughly from
frederick to fredericksburg. To the west of the front, in the
warm sector, ample CAPE (sb 1000+ j kg) and effective shear
(35-45 kt) have been supporting development of supercells or
multicell clusters. To the east, the airmass remains stable.

As these storms exit the forecast area, or reach a more stable
airmass, another round approaches from the northwest. This area
is a fairly well organized squall line across pennsylvania, but
is more cellular in nature in west virginia. Convective-allowing
models suggest this complex will be crossing the forecast areas
between 02-06 utc before weakening. While the severity of storms
may be in doubt due to nocturnal stability, activity on radar
past midnight seems reasonable. Patchy fog possible, especially
where rain has fallen this evening. Going forecast has this
suggestion, with only some fine-tuning necessary.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
The warm front will be north of the area by Sunday while a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This means a hotter and
more humid day can be expected overall with highs nearing 90.

There will also be a more widespread threat of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours... Though
coverage is somewhat in question given relatively deep westerly
flow (downsloping helping to suppress convection). However,
there will be a vort MAX approaching, mid and low level lapse
rates will be moderately steep, and CAPE shear will be
favorable for storm organization. It's also possible a complex
of storms could develop upstream and propagate into the area.

Some storms could be severe with a threat of damaging winds and
perhaps hail.

Cold front will slide back southward across the region Sunday
night into Monday morning, though it may stall out toward
central virginia. There will be a lingering chance of showers
through the night along the boundary. The front will likely
remain near or south of the area on Monday, with the greatest
chance of showers and storms across southern portions of the
cwa. Temperatures will be cooler in the lower to mid 80s. The
front may try to lift back north Monday night as another low
pressure system moves into the great lakes, so there is some
risk of showers.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
Tuesday into Wednesday will be dominated by height rises as
southeastern u.S. Ridge amplifies. This will lead to reduced t-storm
chances and hot temperatures into the 90s especially Wed when
temperatures will likely climb into the mid 90s and possibly upper
90s for some. Ridge begins to flatten Thu as upper level energy
moves across new england. More significant height falls are progged
across the area Thu night and Fri as an unusually deep trof over
southern hudson bay rotates ewd. Think our best chances for
widespread showers will come in the Thu night and early Fri time
frame associated cdfnt crosses the area.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
GenerallyVFR through Monday night. Patchy fog mist could
reduce visibility during the late night and early morning
hours, especially at the more rural terminals or any locations
that receive rain. The other aviation threat will be in the form
of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening each day.

The first round of storms have passed east of the terminals,
only affecting mrb and cho. However, there is still the risk
through 06z from a second round. Associated restrictions would
be brief. Again, mrb cho iad all have a fog risk tonight. Tafs
don't reflect this yet. Further, a hung-up warm front may
result in some low clouds tonight near baltimore.

There will be a more area-wide risk of thunderstorms on Sunday,
and some of these could be locally strong to severe. The risk of
storms will decline on Monday, although there could be one near
cho. There's some risk of low clouds developing as well as a
front sinks south, but tough to pinpoint at this juncture.

No sig wx expected Tue and wed. Believe any storms Tue and Wed will
be very spotty due to upper ridge in control.

Marine
Warm front slowly lifting northward will result in southerly
channeling tonight. Winds on the tidal potomac only recently
showing signs of diminishing. May be able to drop the small
craft advisory on the potomac shortly. SCA conditions forecast
to continue mid bay (south of the bay bridge) overnight, which
seems reasonable at this time.

Winds diminish on Sunday as high pressure regains control.

However, strong thunderstorms may require special marine
warnings during the afternoon and evening. Will need to watch
for SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday as another front
drops south, although guidance has mixed signals at this point
regarding the surge of wind. As the front stalls Monday into
Monday night, the gradient will weaken, so am not expecting any
headlines.

Possible SCA conditions at night on the main channel of the bay due
to southerly channeling Tue night and Wed night.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz532>534-537-
539>543.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz531-536-
538.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Hts
short term... Ads
long term... Lfr
aviation... Hts ads lfr
marine... Hts ads lfr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 70°F 73°F1016.3 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi49 min S 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 75°F1015.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi85 min SW 14 G 14 69°F 1016.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi49 min S 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 71°F1015.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi43 min SSE 6 G 7 69°F 68°F1016.9 hPa (-0.6)69°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi55 min S 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 69°F1016 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi49 min 69°F 1015.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi49 min SW 14 G 16 71°F 1016.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA9 mi1.8 hrsS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1016.6 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA18 mi47 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F66°F97%1017.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA19 mi51 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1016.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA20 mi48 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist68°F67°F100%1017.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi47 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F66°F99%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------SE966
1 day ago--------------NW5NW9NW10
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2 days agoCalmSE4SE5SE5S5SE5SE5S6S5S6S7SW6S5S4S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
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Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:39 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.40.40.60.91.21.51.61.61.51.20.90.60.40.30.40.61

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.