Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:34PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:20 PM EDT (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1125 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except around 3 ft near the mouth of the choptank. Isolated showers late this morning, then isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1125 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore today while a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The remnants of cindy will track along the front tonight, with the front finally pushing through on Saturday. A weak secondary front will cross Sunday before high pressure returns early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231357
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
957 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track well north of our area Friday and Saturday.

An associated cold front will cross our region during Saturday as
some tropical moisture moves ahead of and along it. High pressure
will then build well to our southwest Sunday into Monday. A weak
cold front will move through our area later Monday. High pressure
will then build across the mid atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday,
before shifting offshore Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Round one of three is moving through the region now. So far, no
embedded thunderstorms have developed, and surface temperatures
are running a bit lower than previously expected. It appears
that we remain capped with this first round. The associated
shortwave trough with this round should clear the area by mid
day.

Upstream, there are some pockets of clearing apparent on
satellite. It still remains to be seen when and how long we
will clear out this afternoon. Thus, it also remains uncertain
how much instability we will have by this afternoon when the
next shortwave trough approaches our region. However, north and
west of the fall line, if we get some clearing, we will have
modest CAPE values and 0-6km shear values near or above 40 kt
(considerably higher than what models were depicting with
yesterday's runs). Thus, could see some storms organize with a
severe wind, and possibly hail threat. At this point it
looks like a stronger cap will be in place over our coastal
plains, so not expecting any convection to initiate there, but
if storms become organized over the higher terrain, they could
move into the coastal plains late in the day.

With SW flow tapping into a subtropical airmass, highs today should
top off in the upper 70s to low 80s north and west of i-76, and in
the mid to upper 80s across most of southern and eastern nj,
southeast pa, and the delmarva. With dewpoints in the low 70s, the
heat index will be in the low to mid 90s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Any showers and thunderstorms early will taper off in the evening.

Warm and humid conditions remain in place as the subtropical airmass
remains over the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s, and dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The remnant low of cindy moves towards the appalachians this
evening, and then towards the DELMARVA prior to daybreak Saturday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move into far western zones
after midnight, and then the heaviest precip will hold off until the
pre-dawn hours. Given the abundant moisture across the region, rain
may be heavy at times, and cannot rule out localized flooding.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A ridge of high pressure will be across the middle atlantic region
Sunday. A fair weather day is expected with temperatures right
around seasonal norms. The airmass will be much drier than both
Friday and Saturday, so it will be a good day for outdoor
activities.

A surface cold front and a slow moving upper trough will affect the
weather from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The system will not have
a great deal of moisture to work with, but the colder temperatures
aloft will help develop showers and a few tstms during the period.

Pops are only in the slight chc or low chc range attm. Temperatures
thru the period will mostly be around 5 degrees below normal for
late june. Highs will be in the mid upper 70s across the north and
close to 80 near metro philadelphia and over delmarva.

The rest of the long term looks dry with slowly moderating
temperatures and rising humidity levels. Highs will remain below
normal Wednesday and then rise to near normal for Thu fri. Most of
the models are showing high pressure across the area, slowly moving
offshore by Friday. A few showers Fri afternoon far N W are
possible according to the 00z ec.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

The fist round of showers, with brief MVFR conditions possible,
will move over the TAF sites through 16z. After that, expect a
return toVFR conditions for several hours. Another round of
shra tsra possible in the late afternoon and early evening, and
some storms could be strong to possibly severe. Heavy rain is
possible, and MVFR ifr conditions possible.

Conditions dry out in the evening, and then heavy rain, scattered
thunderstorms, and ifr and lower conditions possible in the pre-dawn
hours Saturday morning.

Sw flow 5-10 kt today through tonight. Gusts to 20 kt possible this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... Lower CIGS vsbys with showers and
tstms mostly in the morning. Conditions improving late.

Sunday Monday morning...VFR expected.

Monday afternoon thru tue... MostlyVFR. Sct showers tstms.

Marine
Mostly sub-sca conditions through this morning. SCA conditions
develop this afternoon on the ocean with 25-30 kt gusts and 4-6
ft seas. Will also hoist a SCA for de bay, as 25 kt gusts
likely, but that would be for this afternoon and early evening.

One round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact the
waters this morning through midday, and then another round of
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms possible late this
afternoon and early this evening. With both rounds, gusty winds
will be possible in the vicinity of any showers and
thunderstorms.

Sca conditions on the ocean through tonight.

The remnant low of cindy will approach late tonight, and showers and
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain will move into the waters
after midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Saturday night... SCA conditions. Showers tstms
Saturday and Saturday evening.

Sunday Sunday night... Sub-sca conditions. Fair.

Monday tue... Sub-sca with sct showers late. Few tstms tue.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at nj ocean beaches and a low risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at de ocean today. However, even with
a low risk... The bigger diurnal difference in the tide cycle as
we approach the date of this months new moon could mean some
rapidly changing conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tide levels are expected in association with the
new moon today. Based on the latest guidance, not expecting
widespread minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle this
afternoon and evening. Will hold off on issuing a coastal flood
advisory, as tide levels should fall just short of minor flooding
thresholds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson mps
short term... Mps
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson mps o'hara
marine... Johnson mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi50 min 85°F 81°F1010.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi40 min W 16 G 21 82°F 1009.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi50 min W 15 G 20 82°F 1010.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi80 min SSW 13 G 15 80°F 78°F
CPVM2 28 mi50 min 81°F 75°F
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi40 min SW 14 G 16 82°F 1008.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi80 min SW 20 G 23 79°F1010.7 hPa (-2.1)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi50 min WSW 16 G 20 82°F 77°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi50 min 86°F 1007.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi110 min SSW 8.9 77°F 1009 hPa71°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 38 mi40 min SW 12 G 16 81°F 1009 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi50 min SSW 12 G 17 80°F 80°F1008.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi50 min W 13 G 18
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi65 min SSW 12 82°F 1009 hPa74°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi40 min WSW 16 G 19 82°F 1009.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi50 min SW 13 G 15 82°F 1007.6 hPa
FSNM2 45 mi50 min SW 5.1 G 13 82°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi30 minSSW 10 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%1009.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi35 minSW 16 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1010.5 hPa

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Last 24hr55S6SW6
G11
S5S33CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS5Calm4SW7SW9
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1 day agoSW7S7
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5CalmSE7S7S6SW4CalmCalmSW43CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4
2 days agoW6SW4S7S7S7S57S4S4Calm4S55CalmCalmS54Calm4SW8SW96S64

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Fri -- 03:27 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.322.52.82.82.52.21.71.30.90.60.50.60.91.31.51.61.41.10.80.50.30.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Fri -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.80.90.90.70.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.