Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:18AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 132 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will cross the waters tonight. A backdoor cold front will move south across the chesapeake bay region Sunday morning. A stronger cold front will cross the region from the west Monday night. A small craft advisory is possible Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 271641
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
issued by national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
1241 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area tonight into Friday
morning. A backdoor cold front will move across the area
Saturday into Saturday night. This front will remain to our
south on Sunday, then return as a warm front on Sunday night.

Another cold front is expected on Monday night, with a secondary
front or surface trough Tuesday. Another cold front is possible
Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Clearing of the low clouds continues slowly from southwest to
northeast, with the exception of low marine stratus along the
immediate southern nj coastline. Forecast for today remains on
track.

Previous discussion from 950am:
low continues to spin away from the region this morning, with
mid/upper level ridging moving overhead ahead of the next system
ejecting through the great lakes that will affect the region
tonight. Lingering low level moisture and low level
southeasterly flow has led to the continuation of low clouds
from the philadelphia metro area northeastward and along the
shorelines. There is also still some lingering fog in the
poconos this morning. Gradual improvement is expected through
the morning hours and into the afternoon, especially across se
pa, central and southern nj, and de, with mostly sunny skies
already being observed SW of the philly metro as of 930 am. Ne
pa and northern nj will be the toughest to get sunshine. Highs
today in the 70s for most locations, within a few degrees
plus/minus of 80f for philly sw-ward, and stuck in the 60s along
the immediate shoreline with continued SE flow.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday/
The main story tonight will be the cold front expected to move
through the region. With the center of the associated surface
low (in central canada) slowly propagating north, the front is
not expected to progress east very quickly. Expect that most
precipitation ahead of and with the front will be showers.

However, model soundings do show elevated instability, thus have
kept mention of thunderstorms overnight.

Given persistent cloud cover overnight, and a late arrival of
the cold front, do not expect temperatures to drop off much
overnight, with lows generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
The cold front that affects the area Thursday moves offshore
Friday morning and any showers will dissipate and/or move
offshore through the morning as well. The remainder of Friday
will remain dry as weak high pressure briefly affects the area.

By Friday night, another frontal boundary is forecast to begin
approaching the area from the north as it crosses pennsylvania
and new york. The front is not expected to move into the area
until later Saturday, then sink to our south Saturday night.

Saturday's high temperatures will be highly dependent on how
fast the front moves through the area. If it waits until the
late afternoon/evening, temperatures will be able to warm quite
significantly. However, if the front moves through quicker, high
temperatures may not be as high as currently forecast. This
would be more likely across portions of northeast pennsylvania
and northern new jersey where the front may cross sooner. A
couple of short wave/vorticity impulses are forecast to move
across the area Friday night through Saturday night, so there
will be a chance for isolated/scattered showers.

The front will stall to our south during the day Sunday, which
should allow Sunday to be mostly dry, but an isolated shower can
not be ruled out. Being the front is a back-door front coming
from the north, it will bring cooler conditions on Sunday.

Sunday's highs are forecast to be markedly cooler than Saturday.

15 degrees cooler for many areas.

The front will not stay to our south very long as it is
expected to lift back northward as a warm front Sunday
night/Monday morning. As the front lifts across the area, there
will be a chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning.

There could also be some showers and thunderstorms developing
during the day Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.

However, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
night as a cold front approaches from the west. Being we should
enter into the warm sector during the day, we should warm quite
nicely, and in turn some instability should build ahead of the
front. Therefore there will be a chance of thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and Monday night.

The front will move offshore by Tuesday morning, but a
secondary surface trough may move across the area during the day
Tuesday. With a short wave/vorticity moving across the area
during the day, there could be some isolated showers across
northeastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey.

Another front may move across the are Wednesday of next week
which could bring another chance of showers. The GFS and
canadian continue developing an area of low pressure along the
front to our southeast which could move across our area later in
the week. However, the ECMWF no longer has this feature. This
is still pretty far out, but there will be a chance of showers
in the forecast for the end of next week.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

The sterling office will be updating tafs after 1230z today
since the mount holly office will be off line for a computer
upgrade into this afternoon.

Today... Conditions improving early this afternoon with MVFR
conditions giving way toVFR as low clouds erode. Winds mainly
southeast to south and may gust 15-20 kt at times during mid
afternoon.

Tonight... After 03z, low clouds may move back in over the region.

In addition, showers and isolated thunderstorms may approach
from the west. There is low confidence though on if individual
taf sites will be affected and the timing. Southerly winds
tonight shift west late after frontal passage.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR conditions expected.

Friday night...VFR early. Patchy fog and low CIGS may develop
overnight.

Saturday... BecomingVFR during the morning, then a chance of
showers during the afternoon. Conditions may temporarily be
reduced with any showers. Gusty westerly winds 15-20 knots.

Saturday night-Sunday night... Low clouds and fog may develop
overnight Saturday and continue into Sunday night leading to
reduced conditions. Small chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Conditions may temporarily be reduced with any showers.

Monday... Low conditions in the morning, becomingVFR during the
day. A chance of showers thunderstorms during the day, with
more likely showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lower
conditions possible during the day with any showers or storms,
more likely lower conditions overnight. Gusty southwest winds
around 25 knots.

Marine
Elevated seas are expected to continue today and tonight on the
atlantic coastal waters, generally ranging from 5 to 6 feet. A
few gusts near or above 20 kt are possible this evening.

Outlook...

Friday... Winds expected to remain below advisory levels, but
seas may remain elevated to advisory levels.

Friday night-Sunday night... Seas may approach 5 feet at times,
and winds may gust near 20 knots, but conditions expected to
remain below advisory levels.

Monday... Winds likely to gust 25-30 knots, and seas likely to
exceed 5 feet as well leading to small craft advisory
conditions.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though some of the guidance is depicting minor coastal flooding
with the evening high tides today and tomorrow, we are not
expecting any coastal flooding as astronomical tides will start
to decrease, and by tonight, winds will be shifting to off
shore.

Climate
Presuming our forecast temps these last 5 days of april are
accurate, we are assured of a top 3 warmest april on record in
much of our forecast area. Sunday is the critical day for
determining record or not. (will recheck this projection around
430 pm)
below: april projected within the top april avg temps, the
normal for april and the period of record (por).

Phl normal 54.0 por 1874
59.4 1994
59.2 2017?
58.5 1921
58.4 2010
57.9 1941
abe normal 49.9 por 1922
56.6 projecting record
56.4 1941
54.7 1994
acy normal 51.7 por 1874
57.2 projecting record
56.3 2010
56.1 2011

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Friday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Muccilli
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Muccilli/drag/johnson/robertson 803
marine... Johnson/robertson
tides/coastal flooding... Phi
climate... 803


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi41 min 80°F 64°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi31 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 1010.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi41 min S 7 G 8 63°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.8)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi41 min SE 4.1 G 6 68°F 58°F
CPVM2 28 mi41 min 69°F 64°F
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi31 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 1009.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi41 min SSE 11 G 12 65°F 65°F1010.7 hPa (-1.8)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi41 min ESE 13 G 15 69°F 60°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi41 min 69°F 1009.3 hPa (-2.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi131 min SE 6 71°F 1010 hPa61°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 38 mi31 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 1010.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi41 min N 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 58°F1010 hPa (-1.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi41 min SSE 8 G 8
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi131 min E 6 64°F 1012 hPa61°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi31 min SSE 14 G 14 66°F 1008.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi41 min ESE 12 G 13 69°F 1009.4 hPa (-2.2)
FSNM2 45 mi41 min SE 12 G 13 71°F 1009.4 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi61 minSSE 910.00 miFair77°F66°F69%1010.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi50 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds81°F64°F58%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W44CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE4SE4SE6SE4SE3SE5S7S4SE6S6
G12
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1 day agoE11NE5
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NE10NE8N9NE8N10
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NW5NW7NW6NW8NW6NW7NW8NW5
2 days agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:27 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.81.422.42.52.321.61.10.70.40.20.30.611.41.61.61.310.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.20.20.60.80.90.70.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.30.50.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.