Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:52AMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 436 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will approach the waters today, stalling nearby Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260813
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
413 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning.

A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move
through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the
area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area
Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of
the upcoming week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The area will reside in the warm sector for most of the daylight
hours before a cold front approaches late this afternoon. West of i-
95 a stratus deck is evident on satellite imagery observations and
expect this to expand eastward through the early morning period.

This stratus should burn off sometime this morning given a drier
westerly flow and strong late may sun.

Once the stratus burns off we should be off to the races as far as
temperatures go, with just about everywhere getting to at least 80
and many locations (particularly DELMARVA and the i-95 corridor)
making a run at 90. Dewpoints should generally be in the low to mid
60s although there is some uncertainty based on the mixing potential
(initially we will be fairly dry aloft).

The big story today will be the chance of convection this afternoon
into this evening , with strong-severe storms possible. We should be
capped for the morning and early afternoon so not expecting any
storms before about 18z. As the capping erodes (from NW to se) we
could see isolated-scattered storms develop over primarily the
northern half of the forecast area in association with the
prefrontal trough. The environment at that time is not particularly
favorable for severe convection with SBCAPE generally around or
under 1000 j kg, however given 40 kts of shear some locally strong
storms will be possible (given decent low-lvl dewpoint depressions
downburst winds will be the main threat with this early activity).

The more favorable timing for any severe storms looks to be late
this afternoon into this evening as the cold front shortwave
approach (this is detailed in the short term section).

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The best period for severe storms looks to be the 21-03z time frame
ahead of along the cold front and convectively enhanced shortwave.

Guidance has storms developing upstream and then growing upscale as
they approach the area late this afternoon into the early evening.

The best convective parameter space (largely a function of low-lvl
moisture) will reside over the southern half of the area (more or
less philadelphia southward), where MLCAPE of around 1500 j kg will
combine with 40 kts or so of westerly shear to create the potential
for an organized cluster of storms with damaging winds being the
biggest threat (but hail is also possible). Low-lvl shear will be
particularly unimpressive (low-lvl flow in general will be quite
weak) so the tornado threat is negligible.

Of note, some models (particularly the nam-nest) continue to
advertise MLCAPE well in excess of 2000 j kg over much of the
western part of the forecast area, which if realized would result
in a more widespread severe threat. Currently think this is unlikely
to occur as its pre-convective dewpoints seem too high given
westerly flow and mixing of drier air from aloft... Consequently
think the hrrr instability will be closer to reality.

The front will move through this evening with drying behind it. This
is not a particularly impressive front from a thermal or kinematic
perspective so drying will be gradual and precipitation will likely
continue into the overnight. Storms will wane from north to south
with the severe threat diminishing after 03z as the surface-based
instability diminishes. Given abundant cloud cover and high
dewpoints overnight mins will be warm (mid to upper 60s outside of
the far north where upper 50s lower 60s will be possible)

Long term Monday through Saturday
A rather changeable pattern across the area this upcoming week with
alternating days of (mostly) dry weather and some weak systems which
will bring some sct showers and tstms. Right now, Mon Wed Fri are
probably going to be the days with the lowest pops. Although there
could be some morning showers across DELMARVA early mon. On wed, a
couple showers psbl far N w.

Tue will see low pressure and a front affecting the area, so showers
and some tstms are expected with the greatest pops (likely) across
the NRN areas. The models become somewhat varied by Thu fri, but the
possibility for some showers will be retained with the GFS and ec
showing some rains arriving late thu.

Some much above normal temperatures will arrive during the middle of
the week with upper 80s and low 90s in many areas. Up until then,
above normal readings (4 to 6 degrees above) will be over the area
mon tue. The much above normal will probably break late next week,
with readings back near normal for Fri sat.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Low-MVFR stratus should scatter out around 11-13z, withVFR
conditions generally prevailing through the day. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon particularly after
18z with lowered flight categories possible. Winds will generally be
from the west around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15-20kts.

Tonight... Showers thunderstorms possible in the evening, however
vfr conditions under mid-lvl cloudiness expected to prevail. Winds
shifting more northerly overnight.

Outlook...

mon tue...VFR much of the time. A few showers early Monday and tue.

Wed thu...VFR wed. Sct showers later Thu with lower conditions
psbl.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with seas
generally around 3 feet and gusts up to around 15 kts. Thunderstorms
with gusty erratic winds will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca thru the period. There is the possibility for
some SCA gusts later thu, but confid in this is low attm. Sct
showers and tstms Mon morning, Tue and thu.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low through
this evening. The low risk may continue into Monday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Carr
short term... Carr
long term... O'hara
aviation... Carr o'hara
marine... Carr o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi49 min 71°F 72°F1015.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi37 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 70°F 1016.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi49 min WSW 11 G 13 72°F 1016 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi19 min S 5.1 G 5.1 68°F 68°F1016.5 hPa (-0.4)68°F
CPVM2 28 mi49 min 69°F 69°F
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi43 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 69°F1015.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi49 min SSW 7 G 8.9 72°F 74°F1016.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi49 min 68°F 1014.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi49 min SW 8 G 9.9 71°F 70°F1015.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 6 69°F 70°F1015.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi31 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 71°F1015.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi49 min W 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1015.3 hPa
FSNM2 45 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 6 67°F 1015 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi34 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F69°F100%1015.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi21 minSW 310.00 miFair69°F68°F96%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:56 PM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.210.90.80.911.31.51.81.81.81.61.41.210.80.70.70.91.21.41.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.