Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:18PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:38 AM EST (05:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 931 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Wednesday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Wednesday through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers through the night.
ANZ500 931 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through Thursday before moving offshore Friday and Saturday. Small craft advisories may need to be extended Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240231
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
931 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
In the wake of a strong cold front, high pressure will gradually build
east through the remainder of the week, before moving out to sea
Saturday. A cold front and low pressure then arrives from the west
on Sunday and proceeds offshore next Monday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A closed low will continue to lift up across the northeast and
eastern canada tonight while weakening some. This will drive surface
low pressure into the canadian maritimes overnight. Our region will
be left within an area of a tightened pressure gradient.

In the wake of a strong cold front cooling is ongoing, and the dew
points continue to drop from west to east. Most of the area has a
clear mostly clear sky, although some stratocumulus associated with
the cold air advection is spilling into portions of our western
zones.

A west-northwest wind continues and while this has been gusty, some
decoupling should take place as the boundary layer cools. This
update adjusted the temperature and dew point grids based on the
latest observations, then the lamp guidance was blended in to help
assist with trends. Focused a bit more cloud cover for a time across
the far western areas.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
A secondary cold front crosses the region early in the morning
with the remainder of the day featuring breezy NW winds due the
pressure gradient between the low over atlantic canada and high
pressure over ontario. Conditions will be dry under a mix of sun
and clouds as some CU develops due to diurnal heating. Highs
range from the upper 20s to low 30s across the southern poconos
to the upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
With ongoing weather earlier today, few changes made in the long
term from the previous forecast.

500mb: another short wave trough moves a cross the mid atlantic
coast Wednesday night followed by substantial ridging Friday and
Saturday, then another trough develops to the east coast next Sunday
and Monday.

Temperature: calendar day averages should range between 3 and 7
degrees above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and Friday, on
Saturday near 10 degrees above normal, Sunday probably 12 to 18
degrees above normal, cooling a bit to 5 to 10 degrees above next
Monday.

Forecast basis: Wednesday-Thursday is based on a blended 00z 22
gfs NAM mos, Thursday night-Friday was based on the 00z 22 GFS mex
mos and then d4-8 was based on the 0441z wpc guidance.

Thursday... Mostly sunny and brisk. Northwest gusty 20-25 mph. Max
temps 2 to 7f below normal. The Thu night mins about 2f below
normal. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Mostly sunny. Wind becoming light southwest. MAX temps near
normal. Confidence: above average.

Saturday... Increasing clouds and milder. Southwest gust 20 to 30
mph. Chance of showers at night. MAX temps 10 to 15f above normal.

Sat night mins. Probably 15 to 20 degrees above normal! Confidence:
above average.

Sunday... Showers with a coldfront and developing low pressure on the
front. This part of the fcst differs considerably than what i'd
anticipated earlier and it is a GEFS combo with the ggem and ecmwf
both pretty confidence on a wet 12 to 24 hours much more so than the
00z 23 GFS op. So have followed wpc guidance pops. MAX temp 10 to 15
above normal. Gusty southerly flow with a wind shift to west
probable at night. Confidence on overall scenario: above average but
below average on details including timing cfp.

Monday... Cooler but daytime MAX temps still probably 5f above
normal. GFS continues to depict a mid or upper level short wave
trough digging south through this period, allowing for snow showers
on the back side of this. However, other models have slight
differences in the track and intensity of the trough, keeping our
area dry. Thus, expect showers to be ending or gone by this period.

Confidence: average.

Tuesday... Strong cold air advection continues behind the cold front.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly be normal. Confidence:
average.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR, with some clouds around 5,000 feet mainly west of
phl. West-northwest winds around 10 knots overall.

Wednesday...VFR. Some cloud bases (scattered to perhaps broken) at
or above 3,500 feet. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. West to northwest wind gusts
20-25 kt Thursday.

Friday...VFR. Light wind becoming southwest.

Saturday...VFR gusty southwest wind 20-30 kt. Chance of MVFR conds
later at night in showers.

Sunday... MVFR or lower conditions with low clouds and rain likely.

Light southwesterly winds.

Marine
Through tonight... Winds below SCA levels this evening for much of
the waters, however these are expected to pick up again to sca
levels overnight as additional cooling overspreads the area. Seas
remain elevated but are expected to subside some overnight with an
offshore wind.

Wednesday... .Sca conditions with west to northwest winds gusting to
around 25 knots. The small craft advisory for delaware bay goes
through 17z 12pm for now, and 23z 6pm elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... A west northwest wind could
gust around 25 knots and the small craft advisory may need to be
extended in time.

Thursday night through Friday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday... A southwest wind small craft advisory may be needed.

Sunday... No marine headlines anticipated.

Hydrology
Forecast points... With up to two inches of rain across portions
of schuylkill county, rises were quick this morning at the
landingville USGS gauge. Landingville has crested and water is
currently working down the schuylkill. Crest forecasts have been
updated for all points on the schuylkill. Although berne has
reached caution action stage, no flooding is expected at any
forecast point on the schuylkill.

Snow... Any remaining snow on the ground, which is near zero across
much of the hsa, is hydrologically insignificant.

River ice... We continue to receive reports of solid ice cover on the
delaware river, but conditions are not as widespread as last week.

We know of solid ice near trenton from about the route 1 bridge
south down to about borderntown, or near the head of the tide. We
also know of ice further north near and in the delaware water gap.

With the warm temperatures the last few days combined with today's
precipitation and rising water levels, melting and fracturing ice
will occur. Restrictions in flow or ice jams are possible as ice
breaks up and begins to move.

Since ice jams can not be predicted with certainty, the best
approach is awareness and to take notice of day to day changes on a
river or stream of concern.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until noon est Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Drag johnson
near term... Gorse
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Drag johnson
aviation... Drag gorse johnson
marine... Drag fitzsimmons gorse johnson
hydrology... Kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi57 min 45°F 36°F1012 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi39 min NW 9.7 G 14 44°F 35°F1 ft1012 hPa (+1.8)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi51 min NW 8.9 G 16 48°F 1012.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi39 min WNW 14 G 17 46°F 35°F
CPVM2 28 mi51 min 47°F 26°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi51 min WNW 7 G 8.9 42°F 42°F1011.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi51 min NW 4.1 G 6 46°F 35°F1011.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi51 min 46°F 1010.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi129 min W 4.1 47°F 1011 hPa29°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi51 min SSW 7 G 8 41°F 35°F1010.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi51 min WNW 7 G 8
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi51 min WSW 11 G 12 46°F 1010.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi39 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 40°F 37°F1011.1 hPa (+2.1)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi129 min SSW 1 41°F 1010 hPa30°F
FSNM2 45 mi51 min W 14 G 16 47°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi64 minWNW 710.00 miFair45°F28°F53%1011.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi51 minWNW 310.00 miFair45°F28°F52%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
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1 day agoSE6SE6S5S4S6S5S554
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4SE66S10SE8S6S7S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Wed -- 02:53 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:35 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:56 PM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.200.40.81.11.110.80.50.30.1000.10.40.7110.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EST     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:07 PM EST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:19 PM EST     0.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.200.30.50.60.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-00.20.30.30.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.