Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Topaz, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:09 AM PDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topaz, CA
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location: 38.67, -119.53     debug

Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 241044
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
344 am pdt Thu may 24 2018

Wet pattern will continue through Saturday with strong
thunderstorms producing hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning
today. Cooler conditions with more widespread bands of rain
showers are likely Friday into Saturday, along with high
elevation snow. An overall drying trend is expected Sunday into
early next week with temperatures warming to above average.

Short term
A potent low pressure system approaching the central ca coast
today is projected to move slowly inland across ca nv Friday
through Saturday. This low will increase the potential for more
organized and strong thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening, followed by more widespread bands of rain showers (and
high elevation snow) with embedded thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. Additional details follow:
* today... While a mid level cap will initially inhibit
thunderstorm formation until early afternoon, strong forcing
ahead of the approaching low will combine with increasing
instability to overcome this cap with CAPE values generally
between 500-1000 j kg, but some model soundings showed cape
exceeding 1000 j kg which is quite high for our region. Veering
winds from east to south are projected upward through the cloud
layer, which should help sustain thunderstorm strength with some
rotating cells possible. Cells are most likely to initially form
near the sierra and northward into western lassen county, then
spread into the remainder of eastern ca and far western nv, with
much of the model guidance favoring an organized cluster of
storms affecting the reno-carson vicinity and parts of the tahoe
basin around the afternoon early evening commute (4-7 pm). This
storm cluster is then projected to move northward across eastern
lassen plumas and northern central washoe county during the
evening. Heavy rainfall rates localized flooding, hail, strong
outflow gusts, and a large number of lightning strikes will all
be in play with these storms.

* later tonight through Friday... As the evening thunderstorm
cluster exits to the north, additional showers and thunderstorms
will develop as deformation zone sets up ahead of the main low
as it moves into central ca. Areas most likely to initially see
this overnight activity include alpine northern mono county, and
adjacent sections of douglas and lyon counties, spreading
northward to the reno-carson tahoe region, and eventually to
northeast ca and much of northwest west central nv during the
day Friday. Cooling 700 mb temperatures will lead to snow levels
dropping to near 8500-9000 feet in the sierra and carson range,
while temperatures in some lower elevations may only reach the
lower 60s due to widespread thick cloud cover and shower bands.

As recently as last week, the upper portions of the mt. Rose
highway received slushy snow accumulations even during the
afternoon under a persistent precip band. This site along with
the higher sierra passes (ebbetts, sonora, tioga) could receive
a couple inches of snowfall, so anyone planning travel
especially over the crest in mono alpine counties should keep an
eye on road conditions, and may even face the possibility of
taking the long way around the sierra to reach destinations
along ca highways 4, 108, or 120.

* Friday night through Saturday night... As the low makes its
closest approach to the sierra, snow levels could drop to near
7500-8000 feet by early Saturday morning, although the latest
guidance trends shift the best precip chances into northwest and
west central nv. Overall precip rates by this time should be on
the decline, with a decreasing chance for thunderstorms (most
likely limited to Saturday afternoon-evening). As the low fills
and moves into eastern nv, wrap around shower bands will
finally wind down across the basin and range Saturday night.

By the time all is said and done with this low, widespread rainfall
totals of 0.50" or greater are likely across nearly all of
eastern ca-western nv, with higher totals of 1" or more for areas
in the path of today's thunderstorms, followed by the shower
bands Friday through Saturday. Mjd

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
there were not many changes made to the inherited long term forecast
this cycle as numerical guidance is in generally good agreement
between the various models and from run to run.

The upper low that moves in early this weekend should be drifting to
the east by Sunday... But its proximity... Along with the presence of
residual moisture and daytime heating... Is likely to drive at least
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the eastern part of the
forecast area and in favored upslope locations for northeast flow in
the sierra. That would be mainly the eastern portions of pershing
and churchill counties and into mono county.

The low drifts farther east Monday. We have left some low end pops
in for the mountains of mono county due to the presence of residual
moisture and expected daytime heating. By then... The highs should be
at or above seasonal norms.

The model guidance is trying to develop a short wave ridge over the
forecast area for Tuesday. But the models continue to struggle with
this feature. The GFS is a bit more amplified while the ECMWF is
flatter with the ridge. Both are trying to produce afternoon and
evening convection due to differential heating near the sierra. This
is not out of the question so slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms were left in the forecast... But the location and
timing is a bit uncertain.

By Wednesday both deterministic models are trying to push a trough of
low pressure into the west coast. The GFS is more amplified and
produces slightly stronger southwest flow aloft. This is critical
for where any showers and storms would form. Right now we have
slight chances across the northern forecast area... Including parts
of lassen county... The surprise valley and northern washoe
county... And in the mono alpine county area. The ECMWF is not as
amplified and does not produce as much southwest flow aloft. This
would tend to favor development in the tahoe basin as well... But
we have left that out for now.

Fog at ktrk should lift after sunrise... But until about 16 utc look
for ifr conditions.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and extend into the evening. The setup today is
different from previous days. Today we are expecting more
organized and potentially stronger storms due to increased upper
level support. That means storms today could produce gusty outflow
winds in excess of 35-40 kts along with hail up to around an inch
in diameter. Of course... Turbulence is likely near any
thunderstorms and brief moderate to heavy rain will likely reduce
cigs and vsbys to MVFR or less at times.

The showers extend into the overnight hours... Then the main upper
low moves just south of the region Friday into Friday night. This
will result in more widespread rain for both Friday and Saturday
with embedded thunderstorms. While the storms will not be as strong
as today... The widespread nature of the rain is likely to produce
more areas with MVFR CIGS vsbys and more wide-ranging mountain

As the upper low moves away... Conditions will begin to improve
Sunday and Monday... But there will still be the potential for storms
along the sierra in mono county and across central nevada.

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... None.

Ca... None.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA30 mi76 minS 310.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1017 hPa

Wind History from TVL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS3S6CalmNE55CalmS7
1 day agoS4CalmN4N7N74NE10N7CalmNE8NE8NE9NE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoN5N7E3NE7NE8SE7Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.