Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topaz, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:40 AM PST (08:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topaz, CA
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location: 38.67, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 170527
afdrev
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
927 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Update
So far, the ongoing storm is behaving as expected. Snow levels
have been bouncing around this evening, from approximately
5000-6000 feet in lassen plumas counties to 6000-7000 feet south
of there through much of the sierra. The warmest portion of the
storm moves in tonight, but this warmer air will be battling with
extremely heavy precipitation rates. Therefore, we will continue
to see fluctuations, but mainly expect snow levels to remain in
the 6000-7500 foot range through much of the night, falling
Thursday morning. Unfortunately, snow level profiler data is
unavailable, so much of the current snow level estimates are
being based on temperature dew point observations along with
webcams and spotter reports from around the region. If you have a
report, feel free to pass it along by posting on our social media
pages.

Based on radar and satellite signatures, the latest hrrr guidance
is right on track with the heaviest precipitation rates impacting
the region from approximately 11 pm through 3 am as an ncfr shifts
through the region. Don't expect the snow and rain to stop at
that point, we just won't be seeing the same intensities. Rain and
snow will continue through much of the day Thursday.

Taking a look at creeks and streams around the region -- rises are
being observed, especially for lower elevations of the tahoe
basin and those along the western nevada portion of the sierra
front. We'll have to see how things unfold when the ncfr comes
through the region, but given the antecedent soil conditions,
flooding isn't likely. Ponding of water, however, is a concern. If
you have any remaining snow blocking storm drains, clearing it
will certainly help.

Winds are increasing across the sierra with peak gusts reaching
130 mph at the summit of alpine meadows as well as the summit of
mammoth mountain. Winds will continue to increase, peaking
overnight. The combination of wind and heavy snow will make for
potentially life threatening blizzard conditions in the sierra
tonight above 7000 feet. It's best to wait things out at home
instead of trying to travel through the storm tonight. Some road
closures have occurred already, with additional closures possible
tonight. Please check with caltrans and or ndot for the latest on
roads. -dawn

Previous discussion issued 311 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019
synopsis...

heavy snowfall with significant impacts returns to the sierra and
northeast ca tonight through Thursday evening. Blizzard
conditions are expected in the sierra above 7000 feet. Heavy
valley rains could produce ponding and minor flood issues tonight
below 7000 feet. Rain in the lower elevations will change to snow
before ending Thursday night, with a light accumulation possible
near and above 5000 feet. A break in the weather is expected
Friday and Saturday before a much weaker system moves in for
Sunday.

Short term...

main forecast changes through Thursday:
* increased snow amounts for the sierra crest and elevations above
7000 feet. Blizzard conditions are expected tonight in the
sierra above 7000 feet, with travel strongly discouraged.

* raised snow levels for tonight ahead of the frontal passage
* increased rainfall amounts for elevations below 7000 feet. Minor
flooding of drainages and culverts could become an issue tonight
through tomorrow morning.

Weather will begin to deteriorate this afternoon after sunset
this evening becoming worse and worse overnight. A very dynamic
atmospheric river storm system is moving into the west coast
tonight, very impressive on satellite at this time. This storm
will bring intense snowfall rates to the sierra and heavy
rainfall to elevations below 7000 feet. Snow levels have already
risen above lake tahoe level this afternoon and will continue to
rise this evening to around 7000-7500ft. There is a potential
that heavy precipitation could bring these snow levels down
further, but latest model trends have definitely shown higher
snow levels as well as heavier precip amounts with the high
resolution models. Elevations below 7000 feet will see periods of
heavy rainfall this evening through tomorrow morning which could
cause minor flooding of drainages and culverts. This includes
areas around lake tahoe, the northern sierra (plumas lassen) and
into to the lower elevations along the western nevada sierra front
could see bursts of significant rainfall tonight.

After midnight tonight, a narrow cold-frontal rainband (ncfr) will
move into the sierra and western nevada, bringing very heavy
precipitation rates near 0.25" per hour. This will mean that in
the sierra during this time, extreme snowfall rates of 3"+ per
hour will be possible. This ncfr will also send snow levels
crashing down to near 5000 feet by Thursday morning, with heavy
accumulating snow around lake tahoe and other sierra valleys.

Blizzard conditions are expected for tonight in the sierra, with
strong winds in the higher elevations near 100 mph. Sierra passes
will see the most intense blizzard conditions tonight with very
heavy snowfall rates and zero visibility. Travel is highly
discouraged in the sierra tonight, blizzard conditions are
potentially life threatening. If you are going to risk traveling
tonight over the passes, you should be prepared to remain in your
vehicle for many hours, because emergency services may not be able
to reach you immediately.

Storm total snowfall tonight through Thursday night will be
significant for elevations above 7000 feet, with 2 to 6 feet of
snow likely. Some areas in mono county near the sierra crest could
see over 7 feet. Heavy wet "sierra cement" will cause an
increase in avalanche danger in the high sierra. The sierra
avalanche center in truckee and eastern sierra avalanche center in
mammoth lakes have both issued avalanche warnings for tonight
into Friday. Mammoth lakes will likely see the highest impact
from heavy snow tonight and tomorrow, with potentially 2 to 4 feet
of snow in town. Heavy wet snow loading could also produce damage
to roofs and powerlines.

Western and west_central nevada: precipitation is largely
expected to fall as rain with snow levels falling to 5000-5500
feet by Thursday afternoon. Liquid amount of 0.5 to 1.5 inches can
be expected with highest amounts west of highway 395 in the
foothills. Virginia city folks will likely see a mix of rain and
snow change over to all snow by sunrise Thursday with significant
accumulations (~6-10 inches, highest in the highlands) possible.

Winds will be gusty at times, but should be strongest just ahead
of precipitation Thursday evening; sierra front gusts of near 45
mph will be likely. Of note is walker lake hwy 95 wind potential
late tonight. The hrrr indicates gusts to at least 50 mph as the
front approaches and the forecast has been beefed up with the
potential for gusts 50-65 mph there.

Northeast california: expect travel impacts to get even more
significant tonight with the highest snow totals above 5000 feet
and west southwest of susanville. The main system tonight into
Thursday will bring heavier snow totals to lassen plumas counties
and travel is discouraged for routes west of susanville as well
as north of susanville along highway 395. Susanville could see
some snow if colder scenarios verify, but only up to 4 inches from
tonight through early Friday morning is currently possible.

-hoon snyder
long term... Saturday through next week...

changes: moist westerly flow will keep some low chances of showers
for western lassen county through early Sunday. Precipitation
chances and QPF totals were increased for Sunday's system.

Medium range models maintain moist, westerly flow with weak upper
level troughing for Saturday and early Sunday. As a result, low
chances of showers for introduced for western lassen and eastern
modoc counties.

In generally, model suites are in decent agreement for the Sunday
system which continues to be presented as fast-moving and warmer
than previous systems. With consensus improving, precipitation
amounts and chances were increased for this forecast cycle. Timing
of the wave favors an approach late Saturday night with showers
overspreading the region during the day on Sunday, and exiting early
Monday.

As previously noted, this system is warmer with snow levels up to
7000 feet northward into lassen county. However, there is a fairly
strong cold-push behind the wave and snow levels will fall as the
system pushes through the region to near all valley floors by Sunday
evening. Expect a round of breezy to gusty winds along and ahead of
the frontal boundary with winds increasing through the day on
Sunday; some locations could see gusts up to 40 mph with ridge tops
gusting to 90 mph.

Guidance suggests a return to slightly cooler than average
temperatures for Monday then warming back to average by mid week.

Monday highs are projected to be in the low 40s with overnight lows
in the low 20s for western nevada and upper 30s for highs and mid
teens for lows in sierra valleys. Boyd
aviation...

sierra: winds will continue their increasing trend with llws
expected for sierra and sierra front terminals. Expect widespread
ifr conditions in snra tonight with ridge gusts to 125 kts and
strong mtn wave turbulence as well as llws. Blizzard conditions are
likely in elevations above 7000 feet, but are not expected to impact
the terminals (kmmh ktvl ktrk) at this time as it will be mainly a
rain snow mix there. There is about a 25% chance that precipitation
rates could keep precipitation more as snow for sierra terminals
given the isothermal atmospheric profiles that are forecast. If this
happens, much more snow will fall at terminal locations.

The main cold front moves through around 09z (ktrk ktvl) and 12z
(kmmh) with snow levels falling to the tarmac. Another burst of snow
is expected during the day with ifr lifr conditions, but winds will
be lessening. Still some areas of llws and mtn wave turbulence.

Several inches of snow are expected on the runways. Improving
conditions after 00-03z Friday.

Western nevada: llws and strong mtn wave turbulence underVFR
conditions continues to be expected through 01z. Then ra coverage is
expected to spread from north to south, heaviest at
krts krno kcxp kmev. MVFR CIGS vis likely with some ponding possible
on runways 05-12z. A break is possible Thursday morning before
another burst of -rasn is expected 18-00z Thursday. Winds will
continue to be an issue through at least 15z Thursday with llws and
turbulence before becoming more localized during the day Thursday.

X boyd

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... Winter storm warning until 4 am pst Friday nvz002.

Blizzard warning until 7 am pst Thursday above 7000 feet in
nvz002.

Wind advisory until 7 pm pst Thursday nvz001.

Ca... Winter storm warning until 4 am pst Friday caz071.

Winter storm warning until 4 am pst Friday caz072-073.

Blizzard warning until 7 am pst Thursday above 7000 feet in
caz073.

Blizzard warning until 7 am pst Thursday above 7000 feet in
caz072.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA30 mi47 minN 03.00 miRain Fog/Mist35°F34°F96%1004.8 hPa

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Last 24hrS18
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SW86Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS9
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2 days agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE4Calm3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.