Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:45PM Saturday December 15, 2018 6:44 PM EST (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:40PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 639 Pm Est Sat Dec 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. A slight chance of tstms this evening, then drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Occasional rain or drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 639 Pm Est Sat Dec 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move over the waters through Sunday, then move offshore by Sunday night. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross the waters by late Monday. High pressure will follow through Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 152139
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
439 pm est Sat dec 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass to the south and out to sea through
Sunday. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross
the mid-atlantic Monday. High pressure will follow through
Wednesday, before another large area of low pressure approaches
from the tennessee valley Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
330 pm update: trimmed the flood watch back a bit, canceling
for portions of central virginia (i-64 corridor) over to
southern maryland where additional rainfall is not expected to
cause renewed flooding (heaviest axis of rain and ongoing
flooding is to the north). Rain is already starting to fill back
in after the aforementioned lull. The rest of the forecast
appears on track.

Brief lull in the steadiest rain being observed across most of
the area this afternoon with mid-level dry slot moving overhead
and surface low pressure system (wave one) moving offshore.

Upper low attendant surface reflection and steeper mid-level lapse
rates frontogenesis result in an increase in steadier rain
again this evening. The most persistent rain and chance for
embedded heavier convective elements is most likely along an
axis near and north of us-50, where an additional 1-2 inches of
rain is likely through tonight. Therefore, will continue with
the flood watch given saturated ground and streams and creeks
already running high from last night and this morning's
rainfall. Isolated rainfall rates of one inch per hour are
possible, but should be brief (not last for an entire hour) in
any embedded convective elements or isolated thunderstorms.

Precipitation should become notably lighter in intensity after
midnight as the best forcing from the upper low begins to lift
to the north and east, but continued moist easterly flow is
expected to result in at least patchy light rain and drizzle
through the remainder of the overnight.

Hi-res guidance has temperatures falling to near freezing by
daybreak near and above 3000 feet, with a chance of freezing
rain over over these locations after 4am. Have issued a winter
weather advisory to account for this, which continues through
much of Sunday.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
Low pressure continues departing to the east Sunday, with
residual onshore flow moist low-level resulting in a
continuation of occasional rain or drizzle, before northwest
flow begins to dry us out by later tomorrow.

Temperatures should remain largely above freezing in the lower
elevations, but if clouds clear out enough prior to dawn and
winds remain light, could see a few readings around freezing,
causing some isolated icy patches first thing Monday morning.

Monday looks to be a breezy day as a dry cold front (forced by
northern stream shortwave energy) dives southeast from the great
lakes and crosses the area during the day. Winds could gust up
to 30 mph, and temperatures should respond by falling below
freezing area-wide Monday night. By this time, however, any wet
surfaces should have dried since rain will have ended 24+ hours
prior and wind should help dry things out as well.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
During the middle of the week, a ridge of high pressure will extend
from the surface through 250 mb. Therefore, anticipating mostly
sunny to sunny skies Wednesday. With 850 mb temperatures near 4 or
5c, temperatures should be a pinch cooler than normal (mid-upper 40).

Mid-high clouds will start spreading across the skies Wednesday
night as a jet MAX approaches ahead of the next trough axis. This
will result in mostly cloudy conditions by dawn Thursday.

For the end of the week, a trough axis will be steepening near the
mississippi valley, and sweeping across the eastern seaboard Friday-
Saturday-- a similar setup to what we're experiencing currently.

This consequently develops a cut off low in the midwest upper ohio
valley... And could spawn cyclogenesis somewhere in the southeastern
united states. While the details still need to be sorted out, it
would lead to another wet Thursday-Saturday. At the present time,
Thursday night into Friday may be the wettest period... Subject to
change, of course.

Thermally speaking, most of this precipitation would fall as rain.

However, will need to watch the evolution to see how quickly cold
air wraps around the back side of the low vs precipitation exits. If
cold air comes in quick enough, then there could be some mixed
precipitation at the end of the forecast period.

Aviation 22z Saturday through Thursday
Ifr lifr expected into Sunday, gradually improving Sunday night
beforeVFR returns solidly by Monday. N flow 10 kts or less, but
a few gusts 15-20 kts possible this evening. Llws likely tonight
with increasing E flow to 35-40 kts around 2-3kft.

Nw winds could gust 25-30 kts Monday, with gustiness possible
again Tuesday (likely lighter for a time Monday night with less
mixing). OtherwiseVFR expected.

Vfr conditions anticipated for Wednesday, but CIGS may drop Thursday
as precip approaches. Flight restrictions possible.

Marine
Sca for most waters tonight. Bufkit soundings show marginal
mixing up to about 1000 feet above the surface where winds are
25+ kts. A lull in the winds is likely Sunday as the gradient
relaxes when low pressure makes its closest approach, before nw
flow increase Sunday night into Monday. Winds will be reinvigorated
behind a dry cold front late Monday, lingering into Tuesday.

Can't rule out a few gusts to near gale force during this time.

Winds anticipated to be light wed. In the return flow thu, the
gradient does increase, but suspect mixing will be poor.

Hydrology
About 1-2" of rainfall was observed overnight last night into
this morning, with another 1-2" likely this evening and
overnight, especially near and north of us-50. Minor flooding
being observed in the western dc suburbs as well as portions of
eastern WV western md. Elsewhere, streams and creeks remain
elevated, so any additional rain will likely result in renewed
flooding concerns through tonight.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels running around a 1 1 4 ft above normal this afternoon.

However, a low astronomical tide has precluded any flooding issues
thus far. While continued northeast flow fvrbl for piling water
into the mouth of the chesapeake bay, they are not favorable
for driving water into the maryland portion of the bay.

Therefore, will be continuing with forecasts suggesting nothing
higher than action stage through the weekend, primarily at
straits point, although will be including annapolis for the
Sunday night and Monday tide cycles.

We will also be monitoring the combination of rainfall and snowmelt
across the area this weekend. The resultant rises on area rivers
likely to pass through georgetown somewhere in the Monday
timeframe... Possibly causing inundation from freshwater influx.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore md and
washington dc setting the annual record already. Here are the
current rankings for wettest year on record (through 4 pm december
15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 62.32 inches (2018)
2. 61.33 inches (1889)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 66.91 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 63.09 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch through late tonight for dcz001.

Md... Flood watch through late tonight for mdz003>006-011-013-014-
501>508.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Sunday for
mdz501.

Va... Flood watch through late tonight for vaz025>031-038>040-
050>055-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Flood watch through late tonight for wvz050>053-055-501>506.

Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Sunday for
wvz501-503-505.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am est Sunday for anz530>533-
538>541.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz535.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz534-536-
537-542-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Hts
aviation... Hts dhof
marine... Hts dhof
hydrology... Dhof
tides coastal flooding... Hts
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi63 min 52°F 42°F1014.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi45 min N 14 G 15 49°F 42°F1015.4 hPa (+0.6)49°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi63 min Calm G 5.1 52°F 1014.5 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi63 min 47°F 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi57 min 51°F 1014.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi135 min NE 2.9 52°F 1014 hPa51°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi57 min E 11 G 12 48°F 44°F1012.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi63 min E 11 G 13 49°F 46°F1013.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi57 min ENE 6 G 12 52°F 43°F1015.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi63 min ESE 11 G 12
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi63 min NE 13 G 15 51°F 1015.3 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi63 min NE 16 G 21 52°F 1015 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi63 min E 12 G 17 53°F 43°F1015.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi45 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 43°F1012.4 hPa (+0.5)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi57 min ENE 4.1 G 8 53°F 40°F1014.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi195 min NNE 5.1 51°F 1016 hPa51°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi55 minNE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1015.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi65 minVar 3 G 1610.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1013.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi65 minENE 55.00 miOvercast with Haze52°F0°F%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE6NE5NE5E3E4E6NE5NE6NE8NE9NE8NE9NE8NE7NE8N10NE10NE10NE8
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1 day agoE2CalmCalmE4E3E4CalmE3NE3CalmNE3Calm--CalmCalmE3S3NW3CalmNE4NE4N4N2Calm
2 days agoCalmS5CalmSE3SE3SE5SE4SE6SE5SE4SE8SE7SE5SE5SE4SE4SE10S10S6S8SE4SW4S3E4

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
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Sat -- 03:53 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.20.100.10.30.60.9110.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.60.91.11.31.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:04 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:42 PM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.200.30.50.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.30.40.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.