Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

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Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:32PM Sunday June 16, 2019 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:59PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1036 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft... Except 2 to 3 ft near the mouth of the choptank.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the area from the north tonight. It will stall out across the area and linger through the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161405
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1005 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area from the north today. The
front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly
stationary in the mid-atlantic region through much of this
week. It may finally shift southeast of the region by late in
the week.

Near term through tonight
12z kiad sounding was significantly drier (especially in the
600-800 mb layer) than model forecasts for the same time would
have indicated, but overall the potential setup for the rest of
today has not changed a whole lot. Radar currently (14z) shows
some light rain sprinkles across the i-81 corridor and further
scattered development west of there across west virginia.

But what we're watching today is the ongoing MCS in ky oh,
moving east. The attendant vortex will cross the mountains this
afternoon and interact with a developing leeside trough east of
the appalachians, coincident with peak heating. The intensity of
the storms west of the blue ridge is in question given the weak
shortwave involved, but activity should ramp up further east.

Model guidance has around 30-40kt bulk shear with some modest
cape during the afternoon. The high-res models are favoring a
relative maximum somewhere near the dc metro, which would be on
the south side of the mid-level shortwave, but the agreement is
rather poor (with some guidance showing almost nothing at all
this afternoon). Staying the course for now with only minor
changes, keeping the highest pops between the dc & baltimore
metros.

Best timing for severe weather still looks to be between about 3
pm and 8 pm. However, the chance for showers and perhaps even
thunderstorms continues through the entire night as additional
weak shortwaves approach in the fast-moving westerly flow aloft.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Monday still appears as it will be the most active day this
week with a slow moving front nearby and ripples of upper level
energy aiding in t-storm formation. Shear and storm motions will
be weaker suggesting an increased flash flood threat especially
given mid- level flow becoming parallel to sfc front which will
also favor training. CAPE values, on the other hand, are
expected to be much higher than on Sunday, which also support a
severe wx and flash flood threat. A flash flood watch may be
issued for some areas at this time tomorrow once confidence in
location of t-storms increases. Simulated satellite imagery from
various global models indicate convection will be more
widespread and intense than today.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Wednesday and Thursday will continue the pattern of previous
days, as a stalled front will remain in the region just to our
north. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to
funnel warm, humid air northward into the region, and
disturbances will continue crossing the region. This combination
will result in repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may produce torrential rain and gusty winds.

Uncertainty exists Friday, with some recent models like the
ecmwf sending a stronger wave through and pushing the front
south of the region faster, while the ggem and GFS are slower
and linger the front on Friday before finally pushing dry
canadian high pressure southward into the region Saturday. By
Saturday, the canadian high pressure should dominate, with a
better risk of dry weather. This should also result in somewhat
lower temperatures and markedly lower humidity.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon
through Tuesday. Gusty winds and heavy rain, with flight
restrictions, are possible with thunderstorms, but confidence
is too low to have anything more than vcts and -shra at this
time.

Vfr CIGS vis should prevail Wednesday and Thursday. However,
typical summer conditions will lead to typical summer problems.

Patchy early morning mist fog may result in reduced vis,
especially at the more rural terminals. Scattered thunderstorms,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, may result in
reduced vis, low cigs, and gusty winds.

Marine
Gusty winds ongoing today with SCA criteria being met over much
of the waters, and a few gusts approaching gale (though I don't
expect this to be widespread). Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through Tuesday,
and some special marine warnings will likely be required with
gusty winds, some small hail, and heavy rain in the
thunderstorms.

Winds will generally remain below SCA criteria Wednesday and
Thursday with a stationary front in the area keeping the
gradient weak. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds, resulting in potential special marine
warnings both days.

Hydrology
Concern is increasing about flood flash flood potential;
however, confidence and certainty are still pretty low. Moisture
is not as significant or deep as we might typically like, but
having a stalled front in the area does mean there's an
increased likelihood of training thunderstorms and thus perhaps
some flooding. Will be analyzing the daytime guidance suite to
see if any better consensus is reached, but given the convective
nature of things, any watch issuances will probably be fairly
short-fused in nature.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for
anz530>533-536-538>542.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz534-543.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz535.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Monday for anz537.

Synopsis... Je
near term... Je
short term... Lfr
long term... Rcm
aviation... Je rcm
marine... Je rcm
hydrology... Je


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi76 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 1013.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi34 min SSW 12 G 13 78°F 71°F1013.5 hPa (+0.0)64°F
44063 - Annapolis 24 mi28 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 73°F1012.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi28 min WSW 9.7 G 12 80°F 74°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi49 minSSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1014.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi49 minSSW 7 G 1210.00 miFair81°F68°F66%1013.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi54 minSSW 67.00 miFair81°F66°F62%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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W10W10W5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE3CalmS5S9SW13
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2 days agoW3SW8S10S14
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SW10S7--W4W4W4CalmW4W3W3W5W4W7W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Oxford
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:43 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:15 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.82.32.62.62.52.21.81.410.70.60.60.91.21.41.51.41.10.80.60.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:16 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.34 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.80.90.80.70.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.300.20.30.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.