Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:34PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:53 PM EDT (20:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 432 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore today while a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. The remnants of cindy will track along the front tonight, with the front finally pushing through on Saturday. A weak secondary front will cross Sunday before high pressure returns early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231900
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
300 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Tropical air will envelop the area today. A cold front will
cross the area late tonight into Saturday. High pressure will
return Sunday and persist through early next week.

Near term through tonight
In spite of pockets of insolation, atmosphere within the forecast
area capped, as evidenced by the lack of agitated cumulus on
satpix and just showers on radar. The same cannot be said across
western pennsylvania down the ohio valley, in vicinity of the
frontal zone. Storms in that region shear-driven, and that will
be our concern tonight.

Recent runs of hrrr rap both depict some enhancement of the
showers in virginia. Given 1500-2000 j kg sbcape, expect some
thunder to develop by mid-late afternoon. That area should be
scattered in nature and have a diurnal component to it.

By 21-22 utc, the line of thunderstorms, and scattered storms
ahead of the line, will be approaching the potomac highlands.

With loss of daytime heating and residual inhibition, expect a
weakening trend in the strength of convection. But, the overall
coverage in the highlands will be increasing. Precipitable
water above 2 inches suggests that heavy rain can be expected
within any thunderstorm.

Latest model guidance (12 utc cycle) offers a quicker timing.

The southwesterly low level jet will be substantive (60-70 kt at
850 mb), so anticipate that some thunder can be expected tonight
even without daytime heating. As has been discussed the past
couple of days, the question remains whether these storms can
root in the boundary layer east of the appalachians. If they
can, it will be busy, with low-topped rotating updrafts. While
heavy rain can be expected too, the system overall remains
progressive (quicker than previously modeled), which will
preclude greater issues.

Bottom line... Have categorical pops crossing forecast area
between midnight and 6 am (likely beginning mid-evening), with
heavy rain possible. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, low
temperatures follow suit.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Latest GFS nam prog timing to be so quick that all precip will
be east of the forecast area by the start of the period. Am a
little bit caution of that solution, and have lingered some
precip into the Saturday morning hours. Then we'll need to
assess how quickly front leaves area; there are some suggestions
in may get caught up across southern maryland or the virginia
tidewater. Otherwise, high pressure will be building across the
area this weekend, with no other weather hazards. Perhaps there
will be a reinforcing boundary Sunday, but moisture looks scant
for even clouds.

Accepted a MOS blend for temps. Sunday will be the cooler day,
with lower dewpoints also advecting in Saturday.

Long term Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure sets to the west on Monday as a slow
moving upper level trough slides east into Tuesday with surface
westerly flow. Below normal temperatures, with showers and
thunderstorms possible during this period.

Conditions should become drier as surface high settles overhead
Tuesday night. The high will move offshore on Wednesday and continue
moving west into Thursday as flow becomes more southerly.

Temperatures will be on the rise as dry conditions continue into
Friday, when guidance suggest a boundary will bring showers and
thunderstorms over our area.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr flight condition across the terminals this afternoon. There
is an outside chance of a shower or tstm, but odds much too low
for a TAF inclusion.

A cold front, infused with tropical moisture, will cross the
terminals tonight, most likely after midnight but before dawn.

At this point, kept restrictions at MVFR. There is a decent
potential of local brief ifr, probably due more to reduced vsbys
in heavy rain. There may also be localized wind gusts. Where
these gusts aren't realized, there is a 50-70 kt wind max
several thousand feet off the deck, so low-level wind shear will
be a concern.

The front will be east of the terminals by Saturday morning.VFR
conditions will prevail for the weekend.

Mostly dryVFR conditions expected Monday into Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles in. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as upper
air disturbance moves through, which could cause periods of sub-
vfr conditions.

Southwest winds 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Those winds
will be increasing ahead of a cold front tonight. Small craft
advisories remain in effect. There will be a 50+ kt low level
jet several thousand feet off the waters overnight. Do not
believe this will mix down in the gradient flow, but local
punches may near heavier showers. Marine warnings may be
required tonight.

Northwest flow Saturday will contain better mixing. The
gradient will decease Saturday night. Have not extended the
advisory further at this time.

Mostly dry conditions expected Monday into Wednesday as surface
high pressure settles in. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as upper
air disturbance moves through. Winds gusts will be below the
small craft advisory criteria.

As mentioned above, precip waters will be exceeding 2 inches, so
heave rain expected in storms tonight. However, only 0 1 to 0.3
inches fell this morning, so soils were not saturated. Further,
storms look to be progressive. So, while heavy rain expected,
believe that the soil will be able to handle it overall, based
on flash flood guidance. Thus, will not post any watches at this
time. Local minor flooding is possible, especially in the
potomac highlands.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides have started to spike, especially in the northern bay,
where departures are now greater than a half foot above normal.

The early morning tide cycle will be susceptible for minor
flooding. Beyond that, northwest winds should lead to levels
returning close to normal.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Imr
aviation... Hts imr
marine... Hts imr
hydrology... Hts
tides coastal flooding... Hts

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi54 min 85°F 82°F1009.1 hPa (-0.9)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi44 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 2 ft1008.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi54 min SW 23 G 26 83°F 78°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi54 min WSW 11 G 15 84°F 1008.8 hPa (-1.2)
44063 - Annapolis 24 mi44 min WSW 18 G 23 84°F 1 ft1006.8 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi54 min 83°F 74°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi54 min 88°F 1006.4 hPa (-1.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi54 min SW 13 G 19 84°F 77°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi144 min SSW 8 82°F 1008 hPa72°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi44 min SW 19 G 23 84°F 2 ft1006.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi54 min SSW 8.9 G 18 85°F 82°F1006.6 hPa (-1.6)
FSNM2 42 mi54 min SW 8.9 G 18 85°F 1006.2 hPa (-1.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi54 min W 6 G 8
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi54 min SSW 19 G 22 85°F 1005.4 hPa (-2.1)
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi44 min WSW 14 G 18 84°F 2 ft1007.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi54 min WSW 6 G 16 88°F 82°F1005.4 hPa (-2.0)
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 47 mi66 min WSW 12 G 14 79°F 82°F1008.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi54 min SW 9.9 G 17 83°F 83°F1006.8 hPa (-1.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi99 min SSW 9.9 87°F 1007 hPa74°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi66 minSW 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F73°F66%1009.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi64 minSSW 810.00 miFair84°F75°F74%1008.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi64 minSSW 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F73°F66%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5SW8SW4CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW3SW5W5W5W7W8SW8
1 day agoSW8S9SW9
2 days agoSW12SW12

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Fri -- 03:27 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Fri -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.