Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Vernon, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:25PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:33 AM EDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 5:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 731 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 731 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A weak front will pass by to the north tonight before a stronger front approaches early next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Vernon, VA
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location: 38.68, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191332
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
932 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain across the mid atlantic through this
weekend. A low pressure system will affect the region early
next week.

Near term through tonight
An elongated area of high pressure is located from the southern
appalachians northeastward off of the southern new england
coastline, and will generally remain in control of the weather
through the day, providing mostly sunny skies with only a few
cirrus around. Temperatures will rise rapidly this morning, and
peak N the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

A very weak cold front will cross the region this evening. This
will result in a bit more wind overnight, but little more than
that. Because of the wind keeping it stirred up, temps should be
a bit higher than the last few nights. In areas where the wind
diminishes late, patchy fog could redevelop.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
High pressure will remain over the region through the short
term. It will be centered just to our southwest Friday, then
slowly migrate northeastward to a position off CAPE cod by
Saturday night. Winds may be a little breezy Friday in the wake
of the previous night's cold frontal passage, but should be very
light Saturday as the high drifts on by. Temps will remain warm
during the day thanks to minimal air mass change, with 70s
common both Friday and Saturday, with lows falling back into the
40s each night thanks to good radiational cooling under the
high and limited if any cloud cover. Patchy fog will be possible
late each night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A significant change to the synoptic height pattern is forecast
to take place across the northern hemisphere this period. A
large deep upper-level low will retrograde out of northern
canada into the bering strait western alaska over the weekend.

This will force a building ridge over western north america, and
lowering heights across the eastern conus. With a blocking
ridge downstream over the north atlantic, interaction between
the northern and southern streams seems likely early next week.

The exact evolution is, of course, uncertain at this time range.

But the pattern should transition from warm dry to cool stormy
over the mid-atlantic early next week. Latest 00z deterministic
runs and their respective ensembles continue to show this
overall evolution, with spread in finer scale details which will
be ironed out in the coming days.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
Patchy fog possible at mrb cho iad over the next few mornings,
but chances are low and any fog would be brief. Otherwise,VFR
through Saturday night all terminals with light winds under high
pressure.

Some low CIGS vsbys may develop early Monday morning as
moisture returns around departing high pressure. Otherwise
guidance in agreement with pattern which would favorVFR Sunday
into Monday.

Marine
High pressure will generally keep winds below SCA criteria
through Saturday night. The exception will be tonight into
Friday morning, when a weak passing cold front will produce a
temporary increase in winds. Soundings show winds of 20-30
knots just above the surface, and while near shore areas will
likely have a surface inversion and less wind, with the warm
water temps some of that wind will mix down over the open waters
later tonight into Friday morning. As temps warm and the winds
aloft diminish during the day Friday, gusts should drop below
sca criteria.

Southerly channeling to SCA levels possible by Monday as high
pressure moves offshore.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to noon edt Friday
for anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Dfh
aviation... Mm rcm dfh
marine... Mm rcm dfh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi46 min S 5.1 G 7 56°F 67°F1025.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 22 mi124 min SSE 1.9 43°F 1025 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi52 min SW 7 G 8.9 57°F 64°F1025 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi34 min SW 9.9 G 11 59°F 67°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi46 min 60°F 1025.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 42 mi46 min WSW 7 G 11 61°F 1026.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi46 min SW 8 G 9.9 62°F 69°F1025.7 hPa
CPVM2 44 mi46 min 61°F 55°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1025.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi52 min W 8.9 G 11
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi46 min WSW 2.9 G 7 55°F 70°F1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA5 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair56°F50°F83%1026.1 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi42 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds58°F51°F78%1025.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA16 mi98 minWNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds50°F48°F93%1026.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD16 mi96 minSSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds57°F48°F72%1026.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi38 minS 510.00 miFair51°F45°F80%1026.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD23 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair54°F48°F81%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4SE4S5S5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5N4N3CalmW3W4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoNW7NW15
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NW6NW5CalmNW7N3NW5N3NW4NW4--CalmCalmCalmCalm----

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.3-00.10.61.21.92.42.62.62.11.50.90.4000.41.11.82.42.72.82.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.100.30.71.21.61.81.71.51.10.70.40.100.20.61.21.61.81.91.71.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.