Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Vernon, VA
April 19, 2024 4:59 AM EDT (08:59 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 2:55 PM Moonset 3:40 AM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 449 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of the overnight - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ500 449 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will approach today then pass through the region tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west over the weekend while low pressure passes well to the south. The high will move overhead Monday and Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Saturday night and again on Tuesday.
a cold front will approach today then pass through the region tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west over the weekend while low pressure passes well to the south. The high will move overhead Monday and Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Saturday night and again on Tuesday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 190800 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track well to our north today, causing a cold front to move through late tonight. High pressure will gradually build in from the west this weekend into early next week while waves of low pressure pass well to the south. The next cold front will reach the area Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Onshore flow between low pressure east of the Delmarva and high pressure over New England has been advecting marine stratus westward overnight. These clouds will be most prevalent east of the Blue Ridge through the morning, with some spilling west into the northern Shenandoah Valley. Although the low clouds may mix out toward midday as winds take on a more southerly component, additional clouds will have advected over the area ahead of the next weather system.
That cold front will slowly approach from the Ohio Valley through the day. Shower chances will gradually increase west of the Blue Ridge through the morning, but it appears doubtful more than spotty light showers will advance east of the Blue Ridge into the afternoon. As weak instability increases, a few thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon west of I-81. The duration of low clouds will impact temperatures today, with areas near/northeast of the Potomac remaining in the lower to mid 60s. Some spots in central Virginia and the valleys west of the Blue Ridge could top 70 with enough cloud breaks.
The cold front will continue eastward tonight accompanied by scattered showers. With weak forcing and a downsloping wind component aloft, it appears showers will have difficulty holding together, and have capped PoPs at 50 percent or less east of the Blue Ridge. A stray thunderstorm could cross southern Maryland with some weak elevated instability, but an overall poor convective environment should preclude thunder across much of the area. Some patchy fog could develop with light winds overnight, but this is less certain. Cooler air begins entering western areas late, with lows near 40 in the higher elevations, increasing to the mid 50s to the south and east.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WNW winds will become gusty behind the front on Sunday, with gusts of 20-30 mph common. Clearing skies and the downsloping winds will result in warm temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s in the lower elevations. High level clouds begin to increase Saturday night with lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
The higher Alleghenies will likely fall below freezing.
Low pressure will pass well south of the area Sunday along the stalled front. High pressure extending eastward from the Plains will likely keep the area dry, although there is still a 20 percent chance some light rain could reach Nelson to St. Marys Counties should a northern solution verify. Even though it will be dry, mid and high level clouds will be prevalent through the day. These clouds will clear to the east Sunday night, and winds should be fairly light. This will result in a chilly night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. With dew points in the upper 20s and lower 30s, some frost can't be ruled out in rural valleys, especially west of the Blue Ridge.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
To start off the work week, the hemispheric pattern features a split flow regime. An expansive longwave trough extending into the high latitudes will pull away from the northeastern U.S. At the same time, a weak shortwave in the southern stream is expected to remain suppressed with no direct influence on the local weather. Eventually the height falls with this system will induce cyclogenesis off the southeastern U.S. coast on Monday evening. Ensembles agree on carrying this area of low pressure well out to sea as high pressure briefly settles over the southern/central Appalachians on Tuesday morning. Farther upstream, the next weather maker looms across the Upper Great Lakes. The associated cold front is likely to cross the Mid-Atlantic region early Wednesday. The progressive nature of this system should limit total rainfall amounts. In the wake, a gusty northwesterly wind is expected through the remainder of the day. The current forecast package calls for gusts around 20 to 25 mph, locally a bit higher in the terrain. High pressure returns on Thursday into Friday which will favor a return to dry weather.
Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected through mid-week with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, with 50s across the mountains.
Behind the front, cold advection will help lower temperatures back down into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Thursday. Regarding overnight conditions, only Tuesday night appears mild given the warm advection pattern. Otherwise, multiple nights see low temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s which could bring some frost concerns where the growing season has commenced (everywhere outside the Alleghenies). For the Allegheny mountain range, lows push near to below freezing at times through Thursday night.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Onshore winds have advected marine stratus into the area this morning. So far these clouds have been MVFR, although IFR is developing toward central Virginia. It still appears a period of IFR conditions is likely for several hours from daybreak through late morning (with possible exception of DCA where wind off the river may keep bases above the threshold). These clouds will likely lift by this afternoon as winds take on a more southerly component. However, the timing is uncertain, as well as if and how long some locations may lift into VFR.
A cold front will progress into the area late this afternoon and tonight. Showers ahead of the front appear scattered at best, with a slightly better chance at MRB. The showers will be light in nature and thunderstorms are unlikely. MVFR conditions likely return this evening as winds will be light near the front, and IFR can't be ruled out. A drying NW wind will arrive late tonight and scour out lower clouds.
WNW wind gusts of 20-25 kt are likely behind the front on Saturday with VFR conditions. Low pressure will pass well to the south between Saturday night and Sunday night, with any ceilings mid/high level in nature. W to NW winds will generally be 5-10 kt through this period.
VFR conditions are expected on both Monday and Tuesday. The forecast should be dry as high pressure largely remains in charge.
Northwesterly winds on Monday will eventually give way to southerly flow Monday evening into Tuesday. Afternoon winds on Tuesday may gust up to 20 knots.
MARINE
Light onshore flow is present this morning. As winds take on a more southeasterly component this afternoon and evening, marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected south of the Bay Bridge and the Potomac below Dahlgren. A cold front will cross over the waters tonight, causing winds to turn out of the northwest. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely in northwesterly Saturday and Saturday night, although there may be three stages: an initial surge down the waters behind the front early Saturday morning, diurnal mixing across the northern bay and upper Potomac through the afternoon, then another surge down the waters Saturday night.
Winds should be lighter Sunday and Sunday night with low pressure passing well to the south and high pressure building in from the west. However, a few 18 kt gusts can't be ruled out during periods of pressure rises.
Winds over the marine waters remain below advisory levels on Monday.
Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly by late Monday.
Southerly flow on Tuesday likely brings gusts up to 20 knots which suggests Small Craft Advisories may be needed.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have spiked in a couple of locations due to the enhanced easterly flow. However, no locations are expected to see any coastal flooding during this high tide cycle. Subsequent tidal cycles will need to be monitored as southerly winds today should further pile up water. The usual more sensitive locations like Annapolis, Strait's Point, and the Southwest DC Waterfront may hit Minor during the next couple of high tides through early Saturday.
Thereafter, a gusty northwesterly wind should quickly lower water levels through the remainder of the weekend.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track well to our north today, causing a cold front to move through late tonight. High pressure will gradually build in from the west this weekend into early next week while waves of low pressure pass well to the south. The next cold front will reach the area Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Onshore flow between low pressure east of the Delmarva and high pressure over New England has been advecting marine stratus westward overnight. These clouds will be most prevalent east of the Blue Ridge through the morning, with some spilling west into the northern Shenandoah Valley. Although the low clouds may mix out toward midday as winds take on a more southerly component, additional clouds will have advected over the area ahead of the next weather system.
That cold front will slowly approach from the Ohio Valley through the day. Shower chances will gradually increase west of the Blue Ridge through the morning, but it appears doubtful more than spotty light showers will advance east of the Blue Ridge into the afternoon. As weak instability increases, a few thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon west of I-81. The duration of low clouds will impact temperatures today, with areas near/northeast of the Potomac remaining in the lower to mid 60s. Some spots in central Virginia and the valleys west of the Blue Ridge could top 70 with enough cloud breaks.
The cold front will continue eastward tonight accompanied by scattered showers. With weak forcing and a downsloping wind component aloft, it appears showers will have difficulty holding together, and have capped PoPs at 50 percent or less east of the Blue Ridge. A stray thunderstorm could cross southern Maryland with some weak elevated instability, but an overall poor convective environment should preclude thunder across much of the area. Some patchy fog could develop with light winds overnight, but this is less certain. Cooler air begins entering western areas late, with lows near 40 in the higher elevations, increasing to the mid 50s to the south and east.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WNW winds will become gusty behind the front on Sunday, with gusts of 20-30 mph common. Clearing skies and the downsloping winds will result in warm temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s in the lower elevations. High level clouds begin to increase Saturday night with lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
The higher Alleghenies will likely fall below freezing.
Low pressure will pass well south of the area Sunday along the stalled front. High pressure extending eastward from the Plains will likely keep the area dry, although there is still a 20 percent chance some light rain could reach Nelson to St. Marys Counties should a northern solution verify. Even though it will be dry, mid and high level clouds will be prevalent through the day. These clouds will clear to the east Sunday night, and winds should be fairly light. This will result in a chilly night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. With dew points in the upper 20s and lower 30s, some frost can't be ruled out in rural valleys, especially west of the Blue Ridge.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
To start off the work week, the hemispheric pattern features a split flow regime. An expansive longwave trough extending into the high latitudes will pull away from the northeastern U.S. At the same time, a weak shortwave in the southern stream is expected to remain suppressed with no direct influence on the local weather. Eventually the height falls with this system will induce cyclogenesis off the southeastern U.S. coast on Monday evening. Ensembles agree on carrying this area of low pressure well out to sea as high pressure briefly settles over the southern/central Appalachians on Tuesday morning. Farther upstream, the next weather maker looms across the Upper Great Lakes. The associated cold front is likely to cross the Mid-Atlantic region early Wednesday. The progressive nature of this system should limit total rainfall amounts. In the wake, a gusty northwesterly wind is expected through the remainder of the day. The current forecast package calls for gusts around 20 to 25 mph, locally a bit higher in the terrain. High pressure returns on Thursday into Friday which will favor a return to dry weather.
Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected through mid-week with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, with 50s across the mountains.
Behind the front, cold advection will help lower temperatures back down into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Thursday. Regarding overnight conditions, only Tuesday night appears mild given the warm advection pattern. Otherwise, multiple nights see low temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s which could bring some frost concerns where the growing season has commenced (everywhere outside the Alleghenies). For the Allegheny mountain range, lows push near to below freezing at times through Thursday night.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Onshore winds have advected marine stratus into the area this morning. So far these clouds have been MVFR, although IFR is developing toward central Virginia. It still appears a period of IFR conditions is likely for several hours from daybreak through late morning (with possible exception of DCA where wind off the river may keep bases above the threshold). These clouds will likely lift by this afternoon as winds take on a more southerly component. However, the timing is uncertain, as well as if and how long some locations may lift into VFR.
A cold front will progress into the area late this afternoon and tonight. Showers ahead of the front appear scattered at best, with a slightly better chance at MRB. The showers will be light in nature and thunderstorms are unlikely. MVFR conditions likely return this evening as winds will be light near the front, and IFR can't be ruled out. A drying NW wind will arrive late tonight and scour out lower clouds.
WNW wind gusts of 20-25 kt are likely behind the front on Saturday with VFR conditions. Low pressure will pass well to the south between Saturday night and Sunday night, with any ceilings mid/high level in nature. W to NW winds will generally be 5-10 kt through this period.
VFR conditions are expected on both Monday and Tuesday. The forecast should be dry as high pressure largely remains in charge.
Northwesterly winds on Monday will eventually give way to southerly flow Monday evening into Tuesday. Afternoon winds on Tuesday may gust up to 20 knots.
MARINE
Light onshore flow is present this morning. As winds take on a more southeasterly component this afternoon and evening, marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected south of the Bay Bridge and the Potomac below Dahlgren. A cold front will cross over the waters tonight, causing winds to turn out of the northwest. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely in northwesterly Saturday and Saturday night, although there may be three stages: an initial surge down the waters behind the front early Saturday morning, diurnal mixing across the northern bay and upper Potomac through the afternoon, then another surge down the waters Saturday night.
Winds should be lighter Sunday and Sunday night with low pressure passing well to the south and high pressure building in from the west. However, a few 18 kt gusts can't be ruled out during periods of pressure rises.
Winds over the marine waters remain below advisory levels on Monday.
Winds shift from northwesterly to southerly by late Monday.
Southerly flow on Tuesday likely brings gusts up to 20 knots which suggests Small Craft Advisories may be needed.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have spiked in a couple of locations due to the enhanced easterly flow. However, no locations are expected to see any coastal flooding during this high tide cycle. Subsequent tidal cycles will need to be monitored as southerly winds today should further pile up water. The usual more sensitive locations like Annapolis, Strait's Point, and the Southwest DC Waterfront may hit Minor during the next couple of high tides through early Saturday.
Thereafter, a gusty northwesterly wind should quickly lower water levels through the remainder of the weekend.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 14 mi | 66 min | SE 5.1G | 54°F | 63°F | 30.10 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 22 mi | 90 min | E 1.9 | 53°F | 30.09 | 48°F | ||
| NCDV2 | 25 mi | 66 min | ESE 7G | 54°F | 65°F | 30.08 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 37 mi | 54 min | SE 12G | 48°F | 58°F | 1 ft | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 38 mi | 60 min | ENE 8G | 50°F | 30.14 | |||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 39 mi | 66 min | ENE 6G | 50°F | 64°F | 30.11 | ||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 40 mi | 54 min | ESE 5.8G | 48°F | 58°F | 1 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 42 mi | 66 min | NNW 8G | 50°F | 30.13 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 42 mi | 66 min | ENE 7G | 52°F | 59°F | 30.10 | ||
| CPVM2 | 44 mi | 66 min | 49°F | 45°F | ||||
| CBCM2 | 48 mi | 66 min | E 8G | 50°F | 60°F | 30.09 | 46°F | |
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 48 mi | 66 min | E 7G | 49°F | ||||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 66 min | E 6G | |||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 49 mi | 66 min | E 6G | 50°F | 61°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA | 5 sm | 64 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 48°F | 77% | 30.08 | |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 12 sm | 56 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 30.10 | |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 15 sm | 64 min | E 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.08 | |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 17 sm | 63 min | ESE 08 | 8 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.11 | |
| KHEF MANASSAS RGNL/HARRY P DAVIS FIELD,VA | 22 sm | 63 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.10 | |
| KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD | 23 sm | 29 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.12 |
Tide / Current for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet
High Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 PM EDT 1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:32 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:48 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 PM EDT 1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:32 PM EDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Sterling, VA,
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