Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southampton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 7:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ005 301 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Tropical storm jose will track se of cape cod today then begin turning back south on Thu. High pres will build down from the N Thu into Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NY
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location: 38.69, -71.39     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200532
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
132 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Tropical cyclone jose slowly moves south and east of the area
today through Wednesday night remaining in the well offshore
western atlantic. Weak high pressure builds over the area
Thursday through early next week as jose weakens and slowly
meanders to our southeast. Please refer to national hurricane
center products for more details on jose.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Bands of showers on the outer periphery of jose continue to
rotate into eastern long island and southeast connecticut.

Further north and west, showers have been more widely scattered.

Have trended pops downward across the interior, nyc, and western
long island and southwest connecticut. Showers will remain light
overall with just some embedded moderate downpours. Heading
towards day break, showers should be confided to the east end of
long island.

Jose otherwise remains over the atlantic. Winds across the
local area have picked up a bit as the low center has drawn
closer, but are still below tropical storm force at the buoys.

An earlier spotter report at orient indicated 31 mph sustained.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Jose is forecast to slowly move northeast and continue to
weaken into Wednesday. It is forecast to move slowly more
eastward direction, relatively farther offshore. Meanwhile, weak
high pressure remains in southeast canada, building west of the
region through this time period. This will keep a relatively
tight pressure gradient across eastern long island and southeast
connecticut with northerly flow. The potential still will exist
for tropical storm force winds across suffolk county,
particularly the twin forks Wednesday but most winds are
expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph sustained range with gusts in
the 35 to 40 mph range. Some higher gusts will be possible at
times. Winds are less to the north and west of suffolk county.

A gradual loosening of the pressure gradient is shown across
the local region Wednesday night as jose is forecast to move
farther away and high pressure starts to build closer into the
region. Winds are forecast to lower late Wednesday night as a
result.

Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as
outer bands of jose likely stay offshore. .

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night,
tonight and Wednesday night, with values in the mid to upper 60s.

Highs Wednesday are expected to be warmer in the west and cooler
to the east, a range from the lower 80s to lower 70s.

With still long period swells allowing surf to build, high surf
and a high risk of rip currents will continue Wednesday for
atlantic beaches.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
There is a lot of uncertainty in the long term forecast due to the
uncertainty surrounding jose's ultimate track and strength. Stay
tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding jose from
the national hurricane center.

For now it appears that jose and or remnants will meander about 250-
300 miles to the southeast of montauk Thursday through this weekend.

This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the
east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then
likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures
as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side,
particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will
keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to
sort out the details of jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of
this week and may continue into early next week.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Tropical cyclone jose will track to the NE tonight and remain off
southern new england coast on Wednesday.

Bands of showers continue to pivot into the area from the east,
and should mainly be an occasional impact to kgon kbdr kisp.

Intensity is mainly light although there could be an isold
moderate to heavy showers with vsby briefly dropping to MVFR or
even ifr. Otherwise... Ceilings are mainly MVFR-vfr and may
briefly drop before sunrise around 09z before becoming MVFR-vfr
again.

A gusty nne flow will continue into tonight, gradually shifting
to the nnw by morning. Gusts in the 20-30 kt range are expected
through the night at the city terminals, with gusts of 25-30 kt
at eastern terminals. Gusts may be occasional at times
overnight. Winds gradually decrease and CIGS improve back to
vfr during the day Wednesday.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday-Friday Vfr. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.

Saturday-Sunday Vfr.

Marine
Jose lifts slowly north through the western atlantic, eventually
moving more northeast tonight and then more east Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Stay tuned to the national hurricane center for
official track and intensity forecasts for jose.

Ocean seas in response to increasing long period swells and
increasing winds are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft into
tonight and stay near that range Wednesday. Seas near the
entrance to the LI sound from the ocean will also become rough
and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range tonight.

In terms of winds, highest winds will be on the ocean, farther
offshore where the tighter pressure gradient will be and here
is where some tropical storm force winds are expected,
particularly east of fire island inlet. Hence, the tropical storm
warning remains in effect for the ocean. The south shore bays and
peconic and gardiners bays remain in a tropical storm watch.

For the long island sound and ny harbor, winds will not reach
as high, with sustained winds of near 20 to 25 kt with gusts to
30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt. Therefore, those waters have
a small craft advisory that remains in effect through Wednesday.

Seas and winds trend down Wednesday night as pressure gradient
slightly weakens.

Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday
through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of jose's eventual
track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell.

For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly
east of moriches inlet and nearby the race and gardiner's bay for
Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely
remain below advisory criteria through the weekend.

Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding jose
from the national hurricane center.

Hydrology
Additional rainfall amounts from jose are expected to range
from near 0.25 inches across much of long island with near one
half inch across far eastern long island. Locally higher
rainfall amounts will be possible. Please continue to monitor
nhc and wpc forecasts for official information about jose via:
http: hurricanes.Gov and http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY162 mi39 minNNE 21 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy70°F64°F84%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE14
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1 day agoNE5NE5E4NE5E5NE4NE6E7NE6NE9NE7NE7NE8NE10NE9NE10NE9NE8NE8NE13
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G20
2 days agoCalmCalmN3SE3NE3CalmCalmCalm--NE5--SE6SE6E7SE63Calm3E5E3NE4NE3NE4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.