Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southampton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:29PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:36 AM EST (12:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ005 626 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will approach from the south today and track east of the waters this evening. A cold front will cross the waters this evening. High pres will build across the region Thu. A cold front will cross the waters Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NY
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location: 38.69, -71.39     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221147
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
647 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
Rain this morning ends from west to east as a cold front moves
through. High pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of
the week. A cold front crosses Saturday night, with high
pressure building in from the west for the beginning of next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Believe forecast is on track based on radar and latest hrrr
run. Area of moderate rain now moving out of maryland and
delaware reaches the ny metro around 730 am. 4 10" so far at
kisp - so also thinking precipitation amount forecast should
work out as well.

The jet dynamics have resulted in the very rapid evolution of
the rain event for this morning with cold frontal passage
resulting in a rapid end from mid morning to mid afternoon (west
to east). The right rear jet entrance to the 120+ kt is the
forcing. Rather complex, but interesting pattern.

High resolution convection allowing models (cams) and href
appear to have good handle on the pattern timing - uncertainty
though lies in rainfall amounts. Have gone with around 1 4" for
the city and 3 4" for the twin forks of suffolk county. 06z nam
has gone back to 1.5" and is consistent with the rapx (version
4). While the operational rap hrrr time-lagged runs keep with
what we've gone with.

Other uncertainty of "will back edge be west or east of the ny
metro" appears very certain now as the jet dynamics have
"widened" and next wave of precip west. Thus, full expect the
categorical rain (100 pop) for the metro and lower hudson
valley as the area of rain embedded convection over md de moves
north.

It's a quick shot for the city with rain ending around 10 am.

Thank goodness it's not february and we were dealing with snow!
a nice case for zero to 12+" of uncertainty in the first few
hours of the forecast.

Otherwise - skies clear and NW winds gust up to 25 mph by late
afternoon as CAA sets in.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Clear, with diminishing winds overnight allows for radiational
thermal decoupling in the rural areas. A blend of MOS was used
with near freezing in the ny metro for lows forecast.

Sunny and chilly, but with a light wind for thanksgiving. Cooler
nam ECMWF blend seems best for temps (about 8 degrees below
normal).

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
High pressure at the surface, pushes off the east coast late
Friday into Friday night as a warm front over the eastern great
lakes lifts well north of the area. Warm air advection doesn't
seem to kick in until Friday evening, so dry and continued cool
for Friday, but slightly warmer than Thursday with highs in the
middle to upper 40s.

Another cold front approaches the area late Saturday and passes
through Saturday night. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will
bring temperatures to normal levels to above normal levels, in the
upper 40s to upper 50s. 00z GEFS keeps it dry.

A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday with a
reinforcing shot of cold air. Some instability with the colder
air aloft associated with the upper level trough may produce
some light rain showers.

High pressure then keeps the area dry through the beginning of next
week.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front crosses the area this morning. A coastal low
passes to the east of long island this afternoon. High pressure
then builds in from the west into tonight.

MVFR conditions develop towards daybreak as rain overspreads
the terminals, except ifr conditions at kgon. There is a chance
that the city terminals kisp kbdr have ifr conditions during
the morning, as well, but confidence in this is too low to put
in the tafs at this time. Rain likely ends by around noon for
the city terminals, and early afternoon farther east. There is a
chance for isolated thunderstorms at kgon and kisp through
around 15z.

Light and variable winds become NW and increase by late
morning midday with g20-25kt. Winds taper of during the
evening, with gusts abated by around midnight. Winds diminish to
less than 10kt throughout overnight, with non-city terminals
becoming light and variable late.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY162 mi43 minS 44.00 miRain Fog/Mist53°F52°F96%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9W18
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2 days agoSW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.