Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Geyserville, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:15 AM PST (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 1:02AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..SW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog this morning. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Tonight..SE winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 6 ft at 16 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 3 to 4 ft and S around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft and S around 2 ft. Rain.
PZZ500 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light winds will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds will increase somewhat by mid- week as an upper trough approaches the region. Mixed moderate northwest swell and a light southerly swell will persist.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geyserville CDP, CA
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location: 38.71, -123     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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Fxus66 ksto 170606
afdsto
area forecast discussion
national weather service sacramento ca
1006 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Dry with near normal daytime temperatures and cool nights with
heavy smoke due to the camp wildfire. Breezy northeasterly winds
over the sierra nevada Saturday night into Sunday bringing
critical fire conditions. Cooler temperatures next week with a
series of wet systems through the middle to end of next week.

Discussion
Evening update... Amplified ridging across the NW CONUS continues
tonight. At the surface, light winds and an overnight capping
inversion are keeping smoke and reduced visibilities across most
of the valley tonight. The most recent run of the hrrr near
surface smoke pushes the most dense smoke northward tomorrow
afternoon and evening, which may give some brief period of
alleviation to areas near and south of the sacramento river delta.

High temperatures in the eastern valley appeared to be limited by
the smoke with highs topping out in the low to mid-60s. With
similar conditions tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to persist
in the 60s. A wave is still on track to move southeast across the
great basin late Saturday afternoon into the evening bringing
windy conditions to areas in the northern sierra and foothills
bringing critical fire weather conditions to this area.

Previous discussion... High pressure ridge over the region is
continuing pattern of light winds, smoke with poor visibility and
air quality for much of the area. The smoke is keeping
temperatures below normal blocking heating from the Sun during the
day and allowing heat to escape at night, unlike cloud cover.

This brought a cold start in the valley, with lows down as lows as
the upper 20s and lower 30s. This is about 10 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Highs this afternoon will be a
little below normal in smoke covered areas, near to a little above
normal in the mountains above the smoke. Evacuees from the camp
fire should prepare for another cold night and morning. Saturday
during the day should be about the same as today.

Models remain in good agreement in dropping a shortwave trough
southeastward into the great basin on Saturday with high pressure
rebounding over the west coast by Saturday night. A tight surface
gradient will develop, bringing gusty northeasterly winds over the
northern sierra and foothills late Saturday night through Sunday
morning. While not as extensive an area as the event a week ago,
local gusts to 50 mph are possible over northeast oriented canyons
and over exposed ridges. The area impacted includes the camp
fire. The fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag
warning GOES from 10 pm Saturday to 4 pm Sunday for that area.

The main effect of the winds other than increased fire danger
will be a some warming in morning temperatures, due to downsloping
winds Sunday and Monday. Wildfire smoke will continue to be an
issue, and could increase if the camp fire increases in activity.

A few high clouds may start spilling into the region late Monday
preceding a possible major change in the weather pattern coming
mid week. Ek
.Extended discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
given more consistency in recent model guidance, there is rather
high confidence in a pattern change affording multiple
precipitation chances and cooler conditions. The upper ridge
initially parked over the western u.S. Will finally adjust
eastward as a southern stream low pushes across socal by early
Tuesday. Large-scale troughing emerging from the gulf of alaska is
primed to reach the norcal coast by mid-week. Warm advection
ahead of the trough will spread an initial band of precipitation
into the western zones by early Wednesday morning before spreading
inland. Models have come into better agreement with this initial
feature with uncertainty looming in its wake. The 12z GFS suggests
a lull in the action ahead of a more impressive shortwave while
the 12z ECMWF supports continued precipitation chances. Stronger
dynamics accompanying this system suggests heavier amounts with
this frontal passage during thanksgiving. Given this is a day 6
forecast, the details of amounts and timing do remain nebulous at
this time. All and all, this significant pattern change will bring
well needed rainfall to the region including mountain snows. This
will ultimately help clear out the stagnant smoky air mass which
has been in place for nearly a week. Bro

Aviation
Light winds along with persistent smoke from the
fire in butte county have been contributing to reduced
visibilities across the valley. These conditions will continue
through the morning although there may be some improvement by
tomorrow afternoon as the heaviest concentration of smoke stays
confined to butte county and areas to the north and northwest.

Aircraft reports from this evening state that the top of the smoke
layer resides between 1500-3000 feet.

Sto watches warnings advisories
Red flag warning from 10 pm Saturday to 4 pm pst Sunday for
northern motherlode from 1000 to 3000 ft. Includes portions of
nevada-yuba-placer-amador and eldorado units-northern sierra
foothills from 1000 to 3000 ft. Includes portions of shasta-
trinity and butte units-northern sierra including lassen np and
plumas and lassen nf S west of the sierra crest (west of evans
peak-grizzly peak-beckworth peak)-northern sierra including the
tahoe and eldorado nf S west of the sierra crest.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 36 mi26 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 56°F5 ft1016.1 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 40 mi34 min E 5.1 G 7 42°F 53°F1016.6 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 49 mi28 min SSE 1 G 1.9 55°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi23 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist33°F30°F89%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmS4S5S6S5S5SE4N3N4N4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3NE3NW4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmS4S4S3S3SE5CalmW3CalmNW4NW3CalmCalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
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Sat -- 01:03 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM PST     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:10 PM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:23 PM PST     4.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.82.63.54.34.84.94.74.13.42.72.222.12.63.23.7443.732.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
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Sat -- 01:03 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:30 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:36 AM PST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:21 AM PST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:19 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:22 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 PM PST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:27 PM PST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.20.20.60.80.80.70.4-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.50.60.50.3-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.