Monday, September24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:58PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1035 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Occasional drizzle. Light rain likely late this morning, then rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming E 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Subsiding to flat after midnight. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Showers likely through the night.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will remain south of the waters through today. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the waters from the ohio valley Wednesday, and will likely stall south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 241415
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1015 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

High pressure will build to the north over new
england today and move offshore tonight. A warm front will lift
through the area Wednesday morning followed by a strong cold
front late Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region
again at the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Minimal changes are needed to the overall theme of the forecast
other than adjusting for hourly trends. Areas of light rain and
drizzle abound across the area this morning. Some steadier rain
will gradually lift north across the area this afternoon and
evening, with the highest QPF still expected to be in western
maryland and eastern west virginia. The best forcing is
expected west and north of the area, so am still thinking any
flooding is a low probability. Temperatures will be holding
fairly steady or only rise a few degrees through the day.

Previous discussion:
surface wedge is expected to strengthen today as strong high
pressure builds across southern quebec and northern new england
today. Meanwhile, isentropic lift is expected to increase later
today into tonight along with rrq jet dynamics. This is expected
to result in another period of steady light to moderate rain
today into Tue morning. Heaviest amounts are expected across
wrn md and ERN wv. However, the latest guidance has trended
lower with QPF amnts than 24 hrs and the overall amounts should
be lower than yesterday. Given stratiform nature of precip and
downward trend in QPF from models will hold off of any flood
watches attm. Marfc has some fcst points on the potomac and
northern shenandoah getting close to minor flooding Tue night.

These were run with higher QPF from 24 hrs ago.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Steady rain will probably linger into Tue morning across
northern md into SRN pa. Otherwise, expect steady rain to end
by afternoon as h850 warm front lifts north of the area with
drizzle or mist possible due to drying aloft and upslope flow.

Then, attention turns to next cold front fcst to cross the area
late wed. Area should get into the warm sector Wed with modest
destabilization expected. SPC has area under slight risk of
severe wx wed. Brief heavy rainfall is also possible as front
crosses the area.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
After a pretty wet majority of the week, improving weather is
forecast by the end of the week and over the weekend.

The frontal boundary that moves across the area Wednesday will
likely stall out offshore and southwestward into southern va and
north carolina for Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak surface
wave moves along it. At the same time, a ~1025mb surface high will
build into southeastern canada and wedge down the northeastern us
coastline, helping to induce northeast surface flow. Aloft,
southwest flow will persist, and a return of warm moist air
advection will likely occur. The region is also progged to be in the
right entrance region of an upper jet. This all spells out a day
that will likely end up on the cool cloudy side with increasing
chances for showers by Thursday afternoon and Thursday night,
especially south. The extent location of which will be determined by
the eventual location of the boundary and how much dry air can push
southward. Highs in the 60s to around 70f.

The frontal boundary will begin to clear eastward by Friday as a
secondary front passes by to the north. High pressure will begin to
build into the region by late in the day. This should lead to drier
weather although a few lingering showers will still be possible.

Highs should rebound back to near or above normal, in the 70s to
near 80f.

A baroclinic zone is then expected to set up from the midwest
eastward into new england which will serve as the focus for frontal
systems into the following week, with the mid-atlantic on the warm
side. High pressure will generally build overhead on Saturday and
Sunday, with a system passing north Saturday night into Sunday along
that zone. Temperatures should generally run above climatology, with
highs in the 70s to near 80f and lows in the 50s to near 60f.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Ifr (perhaps lifr at times) conditions are expected today into
tonight. CIGS may improve to MVFR briefly (currently this window
is around bwi mtn), but duration of such improvement is
uncertain. Rain and drizzle will also reduce visibility at
times. Improvement to MVFR category is not likely until tue
when sfc wedge begins to weaken. Showers and sct t-storms are
anticipated Wed afternoon with gusty winds and temporary
reductions in CIGS and vsby.

Potential exists for sub-vfr conditions Thursday as a stalled front
may will likely lead to areas of low clouds showers.VFR will return
Friday under building high pressure.

Easterly flow is taking some time to increase, but is still
projected to reach SCA criteria this afternoon. SCA conditions
are then expected into tue. Winds should begin to diminish
tonight as onshore flow weakens, but likely won't drop off below
sca until sometime tue. Smws may be required on Wed with
thunderstorms associated with a cold frontal passage.

Sca conditions are possible Thursday as northeast winds increase
behind a frontal boundary. Sub-sca conditions should return Friday
as the system departs.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies are increasing again on easterly flow. The potomac is
first to see these effects, with advisories for straits point,
dahlgren, and dc. More widespread advisories will likely be
needed tonight into Tuesday. Straits point has the highest
chance of reaching moderate stage, and thus a coastal flood
watch is in effect for several tide cycles.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mdz016.

Coastal flood watch from 6 pm edt this evening through Tuesday
evening for mdz017.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for mdz017.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz057.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz530-531-

Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz532-533-

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz534-537-543.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz535.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz536.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Ads lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Mm
aviation... Ads mm lfr
marine... Ads mm lfr
tides coastal flooding... Ads

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi38 min E 19 G 23 68°F 1027.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi68 min ENE 15 G 18 65°F 72°F1028.7 hPa (+0.7)63°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi44 min 67°F 74°F1028.2 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi38 min 67°F 64°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi98 min ENE 2.9 59°F 1028 hPa59°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi38 min 66°F 1027.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi38 min E 15 G 18 67°F 1027.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi38 min ENE 13 G 17 68°F 76°F1026.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi38 min E 8 G 13 67°F 71°F1028.5 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi38 min E 15 G 19 66°F 1028 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi38 min ENE 15 G 19 69°F 71°F1026.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi38 min E 12 G 14 67°F 1028.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi38 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 66°F 71°F1027.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi44 min E 11 G 14
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi38 min E 12 G 16 67°F 74°F1028 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi38 min E 18 G 21 69°F 1025.5 hPa
NCDV2 47 mi38 min E 4.1 G 13 69°F 74°F1026 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi78 minE 9 G 157.00 miLight Rain66°F64°F94%1029.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi74 minENE 810.00 miLight Rain69°F63°F81%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE8NE11E6E8E7E9E8NE7E10NE7--------------NE9E9E6E6E8
1 day agoN5N8N8NE9N9N7N9NE8NE7N5--------------N4NE6E4E4E4NE7NE7
2 days agoSW6--S9S9S7S6S5S10S8S7--------------NW5CalmCalmN5N4N8N7

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.