Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:07 AM EDT (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1036 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will approach the waters today, stalling nearby Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 261402
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1002 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will approach from the north today, stalling
across the region on Monday before lifting northward again
Tuesday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle
portion of the week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over
much of the eastern united states.

Near term through Monday
In the immediate future, convection has developed over north
central west virginia in broad-scale lift and elevated
instability. It does look like this will have some difficulty
making it too far east into our area as it encounters a slightly
drier and more stable airmass.

An MCS is also currently decaying over eastern ohio. Lift
provided by this shortwave MCV could help develop storms in our
area by mid-afternoon. A second shortwave over illinois will
also drive convection today, which may cross the area after
dark this evening.

The 12z iad sounding isn't immediately favorable for widespread
thunderstorm development, with lots of dry air and a decent cap
above the boundary layer. There will be mid-level moisture
advection through the day, though lower levels may be offset
some by downsloping westerly flow. CAPE shear space remain
favorable for severe weather, though at this hour there still
remains some uncertainty about exact timing and coverage. The
message for the day -- especially for those outdoors -- is to
stay weather aware and be prepared for rapidly changing
conditions. Going themes of the forecast database are largely
on track, though will look at bumping up pops for this evening,
which may ultimately have higher coverage (though perhaps a
slightly lower severe threat).

Previous discussion:
the bulk of the morning and midday should see partly sunny
skies and rapidly rising temperatures as warm advection aloft
allows surface readings to approach 90. Dew points will also
approach 70. This combination should help result in significant
cape by afternoon, perhaps 2000+ j kg. Shear is decent, but most
of it is more elevated than in recent days, with low-level
shear pretty modest by comparison, generally around 20 knots
0-3km. This is due to the surface flow becoming more westerly.

Heights will be falling this afternoon ahead of an approaching
shortwave, but the core will linger further west, perhaps not
catching up with the best instability. Thus, expect decent storm
coverage overall, with damaging winds and hail being the main
threat, with a lesser tornado threat than what we've seen in
recent days. The westerly flow gives me pause regarding
coverage, as historically its not favorable due to the downslope
component, so kept pops relatively low with most places just
reaching the likely range.

Tonight, weak boundary slips back south, likely helped along by
cooling from the convection itself. After a relative min near
sunset, the approaching mid-level trough may cause a
reinvigoration of storms, or at least, rain, as we head later
into the night, and this could in fact linger into the morning
on memorial day. After the shortwave passes, coverage should
diminish, and with lingering clouds expected much of the day,
temperatures will be cooler (80s) and afternoon convection
should be limited.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
The weak boundary starts heading back north Monday night and
progresses back north of most of the region on Tuesday. Before
that happens, however, another shortwave crosses the region,
with a round of late night early morning showers and t-storms
possible. Time of day suggests there won't be a lot of severe
threat with this round, but will need to watch heavy rain
potential. After the front moves north, temps should rise back
close to 90 later in the day Tuesday, with plenty of humidity.

This will result in another surge in instability, with cape
again possibly exceeding 2000 j kg. This could also be
accompanied by significant shear, particularly low level shear,
with 0-3km readings possibly reaching 40 knots. This means we
will have yet another day with severe weather potential, and
unlike today, the tornado threat will be back, along with
damaging winds and hail. As the Sun sets, CAPE should rapidly
decline, so we should turn out dry late Tuesday night, but
remain muggy and mild.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The middle and end of next week will feature above normal
temperatures and multiple opportunities for scattered
showers thunderstorms.

For Wednesday, the main weather feature will be a large upper
level ridge over the southeastern us, with our highest heights
of the period overhead. This will lead to mainly dry and hot
conditions, with highs likely reaching the 90s pretty much area-
wide.

A frontal system will approach the region Thursday Thursday
night, leading to another increased chance of
showers thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be very warm to
hot out ahead of the front, and will have upper 80s to low 90s
in the forecast.

The front will push south eastward Friday as the upper ridge
over the southeastern us flattens, and high pressure builds
towards the region. However, recent trends in guidance indicate
that the front may not quite clear the area Friday and Saturday,
leading to continued opportunities for scattered
showers thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, but still
likely remain above normal, with highs in the low 80s.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
GenerallyVFR through Tuesday night. Patchy fog mist and perhaps
some intervals of low clouds are possible early each morning
especially where rain has fallen the previous day, but odds look
low. Best chances are at the rural terminals. Otherwise,
t-storms are the biggest concern, with odds highest this
afternoon and again on Tuesday. Have hit the 21-00z timeframe
today as the highest likelihood of storms, though this is
uncertain. May ultimately have to include a second round of
storms from mid to late evening.

PrimarilyVFR expected Wednesday and Thursday, although some
brief reductions in showers storms are possible late Thursday
with frontal system approaching the area.

Marine
Winds out of the southwest to west at 5-10 kt expected today.

Light winds likely to prevail through the following few days
as a weak front meanders across the region. Main concern will be
potential special marine warnings due to thunderstorms with
highest odds today and again on Tuesday.

Sca conditions become possible out of the southwest Wednesday
and Thursday as winds increase out ahead of an approaching
front.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies are spiking as southerly flow has brought more water
northward up the bay. Further changes are uncertain as winds are
expected to shift to a more westerly direction later today, but
right now it appears that anomalies are high enough to cause
minor flooding around high tide later today at least across
baltimore and anne arundel counties in md and in dc. Will need
to watch water levels closely over the next few hours in case
further forecast adjustments and advisories are necessary.

Anomalies should decline as winds become more northerly tonight
behind a cold front.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz011.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for mdz017.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Ads rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Ads mm rcm
marine... Ads mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi68 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 1017.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi68 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 75°F 67°F1017.7 hPa (+0.8)69°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi44 min 75°F 73°F1016.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi50 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 76°F 70°F1016.8 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi38 min 77°F 72°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi38 min 81°F 1016 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi38 min NW 4.1 G 8 79°F 1017.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi38 min NW 4.1 G 8 80°F 70°F1016.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi44 min SSW 6 G 6 73°F 70°F1016.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min WNW 6 G 7 74°F 73°F1017.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi38 min WNW 8 G 8.9 79°F 1016.3 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi44 min W 11 G 13 80°F 1016.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi38 min NNW 5.1 G 8 83°F 72°F1016.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi38 min N 7 G 7
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi38 min N 7 G 11 81°F 71°F1015.7 hPa
NCDV2 47 mi44 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 73°F1016.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi50 min NW 9.7 G 9.7 74°F 73°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi18 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F66%1017.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi28 minW 410.00 miFair79°F68°F70%1016.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi23 minNNW 810.00 miFair81°F68°F66%1016.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi14 minN 410.00 miFair83°F66°F59%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:53 PM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.80.70.80.91.11.41.61.71.61.51.31.10.90.70.60.70.81.11.31.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.