Monday, July23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

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Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 23, 2018 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 514 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 514 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Another low pressure system will approach from the west today and stall to our west early this week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230811
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
411 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis A broad and slow moving low pressure system over
the southeast will influence the mid atlantic through the
middle of the week. A pair of cold fronts will move through the
area during the second half of the week.

Near term through tonight
Digging upper low across the southeast and westward expansion of
the subtropical ridge will allow for deep moisture plume
sitting offshore to retrograde today and establish itself over
our area particularly along the i-95 corridor and areas that saw
a lot of rain Saturday. This spells a lot of trouble considering
the strong unidirectional flow that will be conducive to
training repeated convection over saturated ground and high
stream levels. Will be expanding and issuing a new flash flood
watch to cover most areas east of i-81. Statement will be issued
around by 5am. Shear also strengthens today which should result
in more organized convection and a threat of severe wx and even
brief isold tornadoes. We've seen some weak rotation with some
of the cells early this morning in northeast md.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Things get worse on Tue as moisture plume moves a bit more
inland and aims at washington dc. Model signal is stronger for
heavy rainfall with showers t-storms falling over saturated
soils. Coordination with neighboring wfos was not to issue the
flood watch for multiple days, but obviously the riks of flash
flooding will be extremely high. Wpc day ero has moderate risk
for almost the entire area.

Deep moisture plume will start shifting a bit more east on wed
with flooding threat diminishing somewhat for western areas but
remaining very high for eastern areas wed. Mid-level drying will
start taking place late Wed night with convection and risk of
flooding likely decreasing substantially after midnight wed

Long term Thursday through Sunday
By Thursday, the stubborn upper level trough that will influence our
weather much of this week should finally shear out and lift
northeastward. That will leave our area in the wake of the
weakening upper trough and ahead of a potent upper level low
centered just to the north of lake superior. Weak subsidence in the
wake of the departing upper trough could keep us dry for a change on
Thursday. The 00z deterministic GFS and euro both keep us dry
on Thursday. However, a few members of each respective ensemble
produce some precipitation. With a warm airmass in place and
dewpoints in the 60s, an afternoon shower or storm can't be entirely
ruled out. However, the trend on Thursday seems to be in favor of
drier weather.

On Friday, the aforementioned upper low will continue to progress to
the east across southern canada. This trough will drive a weak
surface cold front toward our area from the north. The best forcing
for ascent associated with the upper low looks to stay north of our
area. However, both the GFS and euro hint that a few storms may be
possible along and just ahead of the front. The trough has an
extensive wind field associated with it, with decent mid-upper level
flow extending down to our latitude. Currently models show around
1000 j kg of MLCAPE with 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear Friday afternoon.

Although coverage of storms looks to be low, those parameters
suggest that if storms were to form, they could show some

Beyond Friday, model guidance begins to diverge. Temperatures should
be a few degrees cooler for the weekend in the wake of the front.

However, the front won't entirely clear low level moisture (and it's
associated convective potential) out of the area. Both the eps and
gefs have precipitation producing members Saturday and Sunday, but
there doesn't to be a clear solution in either the deterministic or
ensemble guidance.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Widespread showers t-storms expected today into Wed with
training convection likely. Expect MVFR ifr conditions at most
taf sites for a few hours this afternoon into evening.

Conditions begin to improve late Wed night.

Sca conditions likely through Wed night. Mariners can expect
higher winds and waves near thunderstorms.

Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the first
half of the week will lead to increasingly susceptible
conditions for not only flash flooding but eventually some river
flooding. Flash flood watches and river related products will
likely be extended through wed, and those with sensitive
interests will want to start making plans.

Tides coastal flooding
Gusty southerly flow will continue to lead to elevated water
levels for the next several days. Multiple coastal flood
advisories are in effect through Tue morning. Coastal flood
watch issued for annapolis for the Tue morning high tide. The
overnight high tides will be favored. Daily fluctuations are
proving difficult to pinpoint though, so adjustments to the
forecast are likely.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through this evening for

Flash flood watch until 5 am edt early this morning for dcz001.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt this morning for dcz001.

Md... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through this evening for

Flash flood watch until 5 am edt early this morning for

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for mdz017.

Coastal flood watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for mdz011.

Va... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through this evening for

Flash flood watch until 5 am edt early this morning for

Coastal flood advisory until 8 am edt this morning for vaz054.

Wv... Flash flood watch from noon edt today through this evening for

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz531>534-537-

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz530-535-536-538.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Kjp
aviation... Lfr kjp
marine... Lfr kjp

tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 12 mi37 min SE 14 G 18 78°F 1013.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi27 min SE 19 G 21 78°F 78°F1014.3 hPa (+1.8)71°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi39 min 76°F 80°F1014.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi37 min S 14 G 18 78°F 1013.6 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi45 min 79°F 74°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi117 min SE 7 65°F 1012 hPa64°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi39 min 78°F 1013.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi39 min S 18 G 20
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi39 min SSE 9.9 G 13 77°F 80°F1013.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 78°F1013.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi39 min SSE 20 G 24
FSNM2 37 mi39 min SE 13 G 15 78°F 1013.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi39 min SE 12 G 14 78°F 1013.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi39 min SE 8 G 9.9 78°F 73°F1013 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi39 min SSE 6 G 14
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi45 min S 14 G 17
NCDV2 47 mi39 min ESE 14 G 18
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi37 min S 16 G 18 78°F 1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi42 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1015.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi52 minSSE 11 G 1710.00 miFair77°F71°F83%1013.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi52 minSE 7 G 1510.00 miFair75°F69°F83%1013.5 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi33 minSSE 1310.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F79%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6SE6S3CalmCalmN4NE5SE10
1 day agoE5E7E6E7NE13

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Mon -- 01:28 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:09 PM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:21 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.