Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tilghman Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:14PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1238 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 2 ft... Except around 4 ft near the mouth of the choptank.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain through the day, then a chance of snow through the night.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Arctic high pressure will slowly build over the region into Tuesday, then shift off the mid atlantic coast late Tuesday. Low pressure crossing the central u.s. Will approach the region Wednesday, and along with its associated cold front will cross the waters on Thursday. A secondary cold front will pass over the waters Friday, as high pressure builds over the waters through the first half of the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required Tuesday night, while looking likely Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tilghman Island, MD
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location: 38.71, -76.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211520
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1020 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build over the region through Tuesday,
before sliding off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night. A cold
front will move into the ohio valley on Wednesday, as low
pressure riding along the boundary moves across the area
Wednesday night and into Thursday. Another cold front will
cross the area on Friday as high pressure builds back over the
region the first half of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Arctic high pressure stretches from ontario southward into the
mississippi river valley this morning, as low pressure over nova
scotia continues its track northward. The strong pressure
gradient between the building high and exiting low continues to
produce strong northwesterly winds across the mid atlantic,
with gusts of 25-40 mph being observed over the cwa. The main
story this morning, and really through tonight will be the very
cold temperatures being driven into the region. Observations
early this morning have temperatures in the single digits to
teens across the area. Factor in the winds mentioned above, wind
chill values are below zero for many locations, with some
dangerously cold values as low as -20 to -30f along the higher
elevations of the alleghenies. As such the wind chill warning
remains in effect until this afternoon for the higher elevations
of the alleghenies. Wind chill advisory continues for everyone
else through 11am, and we will let it expire at that time as
most sites are near or below criteria at this moment.

Given the gradient remains strong with the exiting low and
building high, wind chills will hover around zero for much of
the day as highs likely hold in the teens, with low 20s along
our far southern zones. A wind advisory was issued over the dc
and baltimore metro areas, as well as southern maryland, as we
could see some gusts upwards of 40-45mph. In summary, a blustery
and very cold day is in store for the region, despite ample
sunshine. Be sure to dress in layers if you are planning on
spending anytime outdoors today, ensuring to protect any exposed
skin.

High pressure will build overhead tonight, with clear skies and
a gradual decrease in winds. This will allow wind chills to
remain below advisory levels, however low temperatures will be
exceptionally cold in the single digits for much of the area,
teens being observed in the cities and near the larger bodies of
water. Locations along the alleghenies, potomac highlands, as
well as portions of the shenandoah valley will likely fall
below zero.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The high will begin to shift off the coast Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night as a return flow sets up over the area.

Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday back into the 30s under
mostly sunny skies, but remain below normal for the latter half
of january. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday night as
southwest flow aloft and warm air advection improves ahead of a
frontal boundary cross the mississippi valley and low pressure
nears the great lakes. As clouds increase Tuesday night ahead of
the approaching system, some light wintry precipitation will be
possible across portions of western md WV in the predawn hours
Wednesday. Not expected much in the way of accumulation, but
some light freezing rain and or sleet will be possible. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will range from the lower 20s to near
30 degrees.

The frontal boundary will near the area on Wednesday, bringing
rain to the region as warmer air wins out with highs in the
middle 40s to lower 50s. The boundary will linger across the
area Wednesday night as low pressure moves along it. This will
result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. As the low
nears the DELMARVA late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning, colder air will try to filter in on the backside to
bring a change over to rain snow in the alleghenies.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A low pressure system will move across our region Thursday.

Rain, associated with the low, will be moderate to heavy at
times with the potential for a little snow on the back side
of this low. Once the low moves off the east coast, drier air
will encompass much of the region with the possibility of some
upslope snow showers in the potomac highlands Thursday night.

Colder temperatures and drier air will ensue Friday and Friday
night before a brief cold front makes an attempt to cross the region
late Saturday into Saturday night. A couple of snow showers or
squalls could develop with this front.

An arctic high will build in behind this front and settle overhead,
briefly, late Saturday night into early Sunday. Another low pressure
system will develop to our south Sunday into Monday and move
northeast either over the interior southeast u.S. Or near the east
coast. Either way, this storm should be the one to watch throughout
the week as it has the potential to pull in colder air from the
northwest and enable the development of some accumulating snowfall.

The european model is hinting of this very thing. However; timing
and intensity of this storm system is how the GFS model is
differing from the european.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Gusty northwest winds, up to 40 knots at times, andVFR
conditions will persist today across the terminals. As high
pressure builds over the terminals tonight, winds will abate,
with clear skies andVFR conditions persisting through Tuesday
night.

A return to subVFR conditions likely on Wednesday as a frontal
boundary and low pressure crosses the terminals through
Wednesday night with rain, at times heavy, expected.

Ifr conditions possible Thursday with rain overspreading the region.

Conditions should improve to MVFR orVFR Thursday night as the low
pressure pulls away. Winds southwest shifting northwest 10 to 15
knots Thursday, diminishing Thursday night.VFR conditions Friday
and Friday night. Winds west around 10 knots becoming northwest 10
to 15 knots Friday night.

Marine
Gale warnings remain in effect through this afternoon for all
waters. Small craft advisory conditions will linger tonight
before winds subside late as high pressure builds over the
waters.

With the high overhead, then shifting off the coast late
Tuesday, sub SCA conditions expected through this time. Winds
will increase late Tuesday night, and especially
Wednesday Wednesday night as southerly flow increases and low
pressure nears the waters, with SCA conditions likely.

Small craft advisories likely Thursday. Winds southwest shifting
northwest 15 knots gusting to 25 knots. Small craft advisories
possible Thursday night through Friday night. Winds northwest
becoming west 10 to 15 knots with possible higher gusts.

Tides coastal flooding
Persistent and strong northwest flow will yield blowout
conditions through tonight.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for dcz001.

Wind advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for dcz001.

Md... Wind chill warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for mdz501.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.

Wind advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for mdz004>006-011-
013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Wind chill warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for vaz503-
504.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for
vaz025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508.

Wind advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for vaz052>054-505-
506.

Wv... Wind chill warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for wvz501-
503-505-506.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for
wvz050>053-055-502-504.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Tuesday for anz530>543.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Imr bkf lfr
short term... Bkf
long term... Klw
aviation... Imr bkf klw
marine... Bkf klw
tides coastal flooding... Bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi43 min NW 25 G 28 18°F 38°F1026.7 hPa (+1.9)-5°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 16 mi49 min 19°F 35°F1025.5 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi49 min 20°F 1°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 21 mi49 min 19°F 1025.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi133 min NW 13 17°F 1026 hPa-5°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi49 min NNW 28 G 36 18°F 1026.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 28 mi49 min NW 17 G 31 19°F 39°F1026.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 35 mi49 min NW 29 G 33 17°F 33°F1025.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi49 min NW 21 G 28 19°F 31°F1026.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi49 min WNW 29 G 37 17°F 1025.1 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi49 min 15°F 1024.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi49 min NW 12 G 26 19°F 37°F1027.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 41 mi49 min NNW 13 G 20 17°F 38°F1025.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi49 min NNW 27 G 32
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi113 min NW 29 G 29 19°F
NCDV2 47 mi49 min NW 17 G 24 19°F 35°F1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi53 minWNW 22 G 3010.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy19°F-7°F29%1027.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD18 mi63 minWNW 18 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy19°F-2°F38%1026.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD19 mi63 minNW 19 G 3010.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy19°F-4°F35%1025.7 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi49 minNW 18 G 3310.00 miFair and Breezy22°F-2°F33%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW20
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1 day agoCalmE4E4NE4E7E6E7E10
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CalmSW3S5SE8SE6SE18
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2 days agoW6NW6W7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE4E5E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland
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Avalon
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 03:02 AM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:22 AM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:12 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.40.60.70.70.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.40.10.61.21.51.61.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 02:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:15 AM EST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:36 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:53 PM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.8-0.400.40.50.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.20.30.71.11.31.20.80.3-0.2-0.7-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.