Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:19PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 332 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered sprinkles.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Tue..S winds 20 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft. Showers.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 332 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast today. A cold front will approach the area Monday night and cross the area Tuesday. This will be followed by another area of high pressure for the second half of the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday, with gales possible Tuesday with the frontal passage.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, MD
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location: 38.72, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220901
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
401 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will shift east off the southeast coast today. A
cold front will approach from the west tonight, then cross the
region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the area during
the second half of the week, then shift offshore this weekend as
another frontal system approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Stratocu deck this morning should gradually lift and break up
through the day with some drying noted through the column in
bufkit soundings. Not quite expecting full sun, but rather
breaks of Sun through a broken mid to upper level cloud deck.

With 850 925 mb temps continuing to warm, expect highs today to
be a couple degrees warmer than Sunday, touching 70 in spots
across central virginia. Cooler temperatures will likely be
observed immediately adjacent to the bay shore and in areas of
more persistent cloudiness. A few sprinkles are possible this
morning as a warm frontal zone pulls north, otherwise dry.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Overall guidance has come into good agreement on timing a cold
frontal passage around midday Tuesday. As the front approaches
from the west Monday evening, clouds quickly lower and thicken.

Expect showers to develop advect into the region near and west
of the blue ridge during the middle to late evening, then
quickly spread eastward overnight. Elevated instability of
100-300 j kg should be enough for a few isolated thunderstorms
as well. It will be a rather mild and humid night for late
january, with lows only in the mid 40s to lower 50s, and dew
points not far behind.

Since the front passes through around midday Tuesday, this
allows for a little surface heating during the mid to late
morning. This may allow a few thunderstorms to become rooted in
the boundary layer, resulting in a few instances of gusty winds.

The best chance for this would be south of us 50 into interior
southern md away from the cooler water. Gusty southerly winds
are likely over the ridgetops as well since they will be poking
into the low level jet, but at the moment it appears winds will
be brief and sporadic enough to preclude a wind advisory ahead
of the front at least for now.

The front will pull offshore by Tuesday evening. NW winds will
be a bit blustery, again especially on the ridges (where a wind
advisory would be more likely in cold advection). These NW winds
will usher in a more seasonable airmass for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Upslope snow showers are likely with about 1 to
2 inches of accumulation expected Tuesday night in NW flow. A
secondary shortwave could reinvigorate some light upslope snow
showers and keep extra clouds around the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A reinforcing shot of cool air will cross the region on
Thursday, resulting in what will likely be the coolest day of
the week. However, with the air still having more of a pacific
than arctic origin, it will only drop temps to around or perhaps
just slightly below normal. Winds will gust a bit, but
otherwise, a seasonable january day. High pressure will build
overhead on Friday, and temps will begin to moderate already,
but the big warming will get underway Saturday as the high
shifts east and southwest flow kicks back in on the high's west
side. However, guidance is not in great agreement on how long
the warm spell lasts, with the GFS quickly pushing a cold front
across the area by Saturday night, while the ec lingers it until
during the day Sunday. Accompanying the front will be some
showers, but as with the front, timing on them varies, and is
rather uncertain. Best chance of rain is Saturday night. By
later Sunday, cooler air will be streaming back across the area,
but with limited if any arctic air available, not expecting any
severe cold, and even below normal readings will be a bit hard
to find.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Stratocu around 5-7 kft this morning should scatter out this
afternoon. A sprinkle is possible this morning as well, butVFR
is expected. S winds around 10 kts, with a few gusts to around
20 kts are expected today.

Clouds quickly lower and thicken tonight, especially after
midnight, with widespread ifr CIGS likely by 9z. Vsbys drop in
-shra as well after midnight. Llws issues almost a certainty
with strong LLJ about 50 kts around 2 kft.

Iso thunder potential as well 9-18z tue, possibly accompanied
by gusty surface winds mainly SE of a line from dca to cho.

Vfr returns Tue aft. Gusty NW flow ensues 10 g 20 kts into wed
before gradually diminishing.

Vfr will prevail Thursday and Friday with high pressure in
control overall. A dry cold front on Thursday may bring
northwesterly gusts back to 20-25 knots, but they should subside
by Friday.

Marine
Sca gusts expected, albeit a bit sporadic due to poor mixing
over cooler water starting this evening. Gusts should gradually
become more widespread into Tuesday, with gales possible
depending on mixing convection. Winds shift to NW following cold
fropa Tue early aft. Gusts could persist through Tue night into
wed before diminishing as high pressure builds.

Reinforcing shot of cool air moving south from canada on
Thursday will likely lead to more SCA conditions, but winds
should relax Friday as high pressure builds overhead.

Tides coastal flooding
Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
will cause water levels to increase today through Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible, especially during the midday
high tide cycles Tuesday if the cold front isn't through by
then. However, confidence on any minor flooding is low.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
anz530>532-535-536-538>541.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 pm est
Tuesday for anz533-534-537-542-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Rcm
aviation... Rcm dhof
marine... Rcm dhof
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 4 mi111 min SSE 7 49°F 1020 hPa40°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi41 min SSE 9.7 G 12 39°F 1020.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi81 min S 17 G 17 47°F 33°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi51 min S 2.9 G 2.9 51°F 34°F1019.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi51 min 41°F 1019.6 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi51 min 41°F 35°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi51 min SSE 9.9 G 12 37°F 1021.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi51 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 35°F1020.2 hPa
NCDV2 33 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 43°F 36°F1019.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 35 mi51 min 47°F 34°F1021.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 36 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 1020.1 hPa
FSNM2 36 mi51 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 47°F 1019.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi51 min Calm G 1 41°F 34°F1019.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 42 mi51 min SSW 1 G 1.9 46°F 33°F1020.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi51 min S 11 G 12 43°F 38°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD12 mi25 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F38°F62%1020 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi29 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast51°F41°F69%1019.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD21 mi27 minESE 510.00 miOvercast42°F37°F82%1020 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi44 minN 010.00 miOvercast51°F40°F68%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S6S8S8S5S9SE6SE7S5S7S9S12S11S11SW11S8S10SW8
1 day agoSW5S4S5SW5W5SW6SW9W10SW11W10W8SW6W6SW5SW5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Nottingham, Patuxent River, Maryland
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Nottingham
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:35 PM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.3-0.4-0.20.20.91.41.71.61.30.90.4-0-0.2-0.3-0.10.41.11.82.22.221.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Mon -- 01:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:57 AM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:53 PM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 PM EST     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-00.20.30.40.30.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.30.30.10-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.