Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:45PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:03 AM EST (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 639 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ500 639 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move out to sea today as high pressure builds across the waters. The high will linger through most of the week before another storm system approaches Friday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach, MD
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location: 38.73, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 100904
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
404 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will pull away from the carolina coast today as
high pressure builds in from the ohio valley. This area of high
pressure will retreat to offshore of new england through the end
of the week as a large area of low pressure develops over the
tennessee valley and heads toward the region for the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over the atlantic
just east of CAPE hatteras, heading eastward into the open
ocean. High pressure is centered over the central plains, but
extends eastward into the southern great lakes, with a second
high pressure centered over southern quebec and ontario. Aloft,
several deep troughs closed lows are located across the region,
with one near the southern appalachians, another in the central
plains, and a third just north of maine.

Through today, all these features will progress in a general
east-southeast fashion, allowing inclement weather to continue
pushing away from us and letting high pressure build into the
region. Clouds will break for increasing sunshine, though a
little patchy fog could occur early this morning before the sun
comes out, mainly in the shenandoah valley and central va. Where
snow did not fall on Sunday, temps should rebound to around 40,
but it will likely get stuck in the 30s across central va
thanks to the snow cover. That said, we expect temps to reach
above freezing nearly everywhere, so there should be some
melting.

Tonight and Tuesday, high pressure continues slowly building
eastward into the region. This should keep it dry with
diminishing winds as the low continues pulling away. Areas with
significant snow cover could get rather cold tonight, while
other locations likely stay in the 20s tonight. Temps will
moderate a bit on Tuesday with a bit of warm advection aloft and
more sunshine, so expect temps to be a few degrees above today's
readings. That said, lingering snow in central va and adjacent
areas will likely keep temps down a bit compared to locations
further north that are snow-less.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
A weak shortwave and cold front will cross the region Tuesday
night. Forcing and moisture look so limited that it seems like
it will be very difficult to get any precip with it, but some
guidance hints that a little upslope flurry activity could
develop. Lows will be in the 20s for the most part.

Despite the front's passage, there is minimal cold air behind
it, with temperatures expected to rebound back into the low 40s
on Wednesday with some sunshine.

Wednesday night, most guidance is dry, but the ec has now for
two runs in a row depicted a weak disturbance coming in from the
west with the potential for a few snow showers. Will need to
watch it, but for now have kept most areas dry. Lows likely in
the 20s again.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
By Thursday, an amplified trough axis will be in the plains,
approaching the mississippi river valley. Downstream ridging
will reside across the southeastern united states. However,
shortwave energy will be crossing the great lakes headed toward
northern new england. However, the ECMWF is much more amplified
than the GFS or gdps. Given the presence of an upper level
jetlet, that provides enough lift for a pocket of precipitation.

Thermally, the the lower layers of the atmosphere would be cold
enough for snow at that time, but its not clear that the mid
level is. Further, boundary layer temperatures should be
rising... Unless there is sufficient wet bulb cooling to offset
the diurnal trend. Am not confident that there will be. At the
same time, feel some credence for the ECMWF output warranted.

Result will be a 20% pop for the database, which won't be
reflected in text forecasts. Am going with a rain snow mix for
weather type.

The main batch of precipitation will arrive with the trough
axis, primarily Friday-Friday night. Onset likely to be pre-dawn
Friday, again making precip type a question. Otherwise, we're
looking at a period of rain, with plenty of moisture to work
with... Especially for mid-december. Operational and ensemble
forecasts continue to support forecast solutions suggesting an
inch or more of rainfall.

It remains to be seen how quickly this precipitation will exit
as a cut-off low will develop at the base of the trough. There
is at least some consistency that low pressure will linger into
the weekend. That makes either the pop and or temperature
forecasts lower confidence.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Patchy fog may affect mrb and cho early this morning thanks to
light winds and radiational cooling under clearing skies.

Otherwise, expectVFR to prevail through Wednesday night at all
terminals as high pressure dominates. Winds will generally be
below 20 knots through Wednesday night.

Conflicting guidance solutions on Thursday lead to a lower
confidence flight restriction forecast. There is a small
potential that MVFR ifr conditions may overspread the terminals
with upper level energy. The more likely time period for flight
restrictions will come on Friday in rain. Will need to watch
onset timing, but at this time it appears more likely than not
any cold air will exit the terminals prior to the arrival of
rain.

Marine
Sca for the middle bay lower potomac into this afternoon,
dwindling after that as the system near the carolina coast pulls
away out to sea and high pressure builds in. Small chance some
sca level gusts linger into the evening but overall expect sub-
sca starting tonight and continuing through Wednesday night as
high pressure dominates.

The pressure gradient will increase on Friday as low pressure
strengthens near the waters. Small craft advisory conditions
possible.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 9th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz532-
533-540>542.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz534-
537-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz536.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Hts
aviation... Rcm hts
marine... Rcm hts
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 10 mi93 min N 2.9 30°F 1020 hPa20°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi63 min N 17 G 19 32°F 40°F1020.7 hPa (+1.6)21°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi33 min 32°F 1020.1 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi33 min 33°F 22°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi33 min N 13 G 20 35°F 1019.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi33 min 32°F 40°F1019.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi33 min N 7 G 14 31°F 41°F1021.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi33 min N 13 G 18 34°F 43°F1018.7 hPa
FSNM2 34 mi39 min N 8.9 G 11 29°F 1020.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 34 mi33 min NNW 7 G 8.9 30°F 1021 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi33 min NNE 14 G 20 31°F 40°F1020.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi33 min N 7 G 8 29°F 42°F1020.8 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi39 min N 5.1 G 8 31°F 39°F1019.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi39 min N 11 G 13
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi33 min N 12 G 18 31°F 37°F1018.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi33 min NNE 18 G 23 34°F 1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi69 minN 710.00 miFair34°F21°F59%1020.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi67 minN 910.00 miFair26°F16°F65%1020.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi83 minN 10 G 1610.00 miFair30°F19°F64%1020 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4N6NE8NE7N8N8NE7NE6NE7N10N10N9N8N9N6N9N8N5N7N7N7N9N10
1 day agoCalmW5W9NW11NW9
G16
NW12NW9NW7NW5NW7N3N4N4N5N6N5N5N5NE5N4N3NE5N4N3
2 days agoN10N12NW11NW12W14W7W11
G19
NW10NW10N5N5N3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rose Haven, Maryland
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Rose Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:11 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.30.60.811.11.10.90.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:16 AM EST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:33 AM EST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:10 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:47 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.1-1-0.8-0.4-00.30.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.60.810.90.60.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.