Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach, MD

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:56PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:02 AM EDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 135 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 135 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front to the north will sink southward slowly and cross the waters overnight and into Sunday. High pressure will build to the north on Monday before a warm front lifts northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east on Wednesday followed by modified canadian high pressure taking hold through weeks end.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach, MD
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location: 38.73, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190149
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
949 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will gradually cross the region tonight into
Sunday. High pressure will build to the northeast Monday before
low pressure passes northwest of the area toward the middle of
next week.

Near term through tonight
A surface cold front resides just north of the mason dixon line
this evening with just some isolated showers being sampled
by our local radars. The strongest activity remains over the lower
chesapeake bay waters and the adjacent land zones to the east.

Coverage and intensity of showers and storms this evening was
much lower than anticipated given the approaching upper trough
and associated surface cold front. This was likely a result of
increased cloud cover this afternoon and early evening reducing
potential instability and a predominate westerly component of
the winds at the surface and throughout the boundary layer. The
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern
maryland struggled to maintain themselves into the evening
hours, with an outflow boundary outpacing much of the activity.

There were some isolated instances of flooding where storms were
able to generate and sustain themselves for a long enough
period. This occurred over portions of the shenandoah valley and
across western maryland where one to two inches of rainfall was
able to fall. This was supported by precipitable water values
near two inches, which has since fallen to just under an inch
and three quarters according to the 00z iad upper air sounding.

The cold front to our north will continue its slow track
southward across our area overnight. Will hold on to low end
chance pops overnight, with an isolated thunderstorm possible
the next few hours. After which, passing showers will be the
dominate precip mode the remainder of the overnight hours thanks
to the upper trough and supportive shortwave energy aloft.

Patchy fog will be possible for the favored locations west of
the blue ridge. Expect mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in
the 60s to near 70 degrees for the rest of the overnight
period.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
On Sunday, the front settles to the south, with high pressure
trying to slowly build in from the northeast. A wedge will start
to form east of the mountains, but with lingering upper level
energy as the trough passes, some showers or perhaps an isolated
t-storm could still form. Highs will be cooler behind the
front, staying in the lower 80s for the most part.

Wedge looks to strengthen Sunday night into early Monday as high
passes north, so low clouds and perhaps a shower or some drizzle
can occur. Later Monday, drizzle should end and clouds likely
lift a bit east of the mountains, but near the mountains
themselves, some showers or perhaps a stray t-storm are possible
with the upslope flow. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the
60s, with highs again mostly in the lower 80s on Monday.

Front starts to push back north as a warm front on Monday night,
with continued chance of showers, mainly in the mountains. Lows
will again be mostly in the 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
On Tuesday, a mid-upper level trough will track from the
central mississippi valley toward the great lakes. A surface low
associated with the aforementioned mid-upper level system is
forecast to strengthen as it tracks from near chicago Tuesday
morning, to just north of lake ontario by Wednesday morning.

Southerly flow ahead of the unseasonably strong system will
transport a moisture rich airmass into our area, with
precipitable water values climbing to well in excess of two
inches. The mid-upper level wind field will also start to
strengthen as the system approaches. Most model guidance
suggests 0-6 km shear values around 30-35 kts Tuesday afternoon,
which when coupled with around 1000 j kg of MLCAPE could
facilitate the development of some stronger storms. Poor mid-
level lapse rates and high levels of cloud cover are potential
limiting factors. Forcing for ascent out ahead of the mid-level
trough will be appreciable, so showers and storms look to be a
good bet Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although the system
looks to be quite progressive, there could also potentially be a
low-end flash flood threat given the very high precipitable
water values and strong forcing for ascent.

The surface cold front associated with the primary system will
have progressed through the area by Wednesday morning. However,
model guidance suggests that a second shortwave and an
associated reinforcing surface cold front will work through
during the day on Wednesday. With lesser moisture to work with
in the wake of the first front, any afternoon showers and
thunderstorms should be much more limited in scope.

The secondary front will clear the area by Thursday morning,
ushering a much cooler and less humid airmass into the area.

High pressure will gradually work in from the ohio valley late
Thursday through Friday, leading to sunny skies and no
precipitation. High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be
in the upper 70s to around 80, with dewpoints in the 50s.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Cold front north of the terminals this evening will migrate
southeastward overnight. A passing shower or two cannot be ruled
out through daybreak, but impacts would likely remain MVFR vis
at worst. Patchy fog expected to form near cho mrb after
midnight, with MVFR vis CIGS possible. Light west northwesterly
breezes can be expected through the overnight hours.

Showers and perhaps a stray t-storm still possible on Sunday as
the front will remain nearby, stalling just to the south. Lower
cigs possible Sunday night as stronger push from the northeast
may drop CIGS closer to ifr, along with continued chance of
showers or perhaps even some drizzle. This lingers Monday
morning, at least, before perhaps some improvement in the
afternoon.

Intermittent sub-vfr conditions could be possible in
association with any thunderstorms that pass through Tuesday or
Wednesday.

Marine
Outside of exiting showers and thunderstorms over the lower
chesapeake bay, conditions are quiet on our marine district this
evening. Winds are a bit elevated in this area as a result, but
should diminish as the activity pushes off to the east. Winds
are generally light and west northwesterly. Cold front north of
the waters will sink southward overnight, with sub sca
conditions prevailing.

Sub-sca winds continue thru Monday night despite a cold front
passage late tonight into early Sunday. Behind the front later
tonight thru early Monday, winds pick up a bit from the
northeast, and its possible an interval of SCA conditions
develops, but high uncertainty regarding timing makes one
hard pressed to issue just yet. Winds probably diminish a bit
on Monday.

Low-end SCA level winds may be possible on Tuesday through
Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Bkf rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bkf rcm kjp
marine... Bkf rcm kjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 10 mi93 min S 1.9 73°F 1010 hPa71°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 13 mi33 min WNW 9.7 G 12 79°F 1010.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi63 min WNW 8 G 8.9 78°F 82°F1010.9 hPa (-0.6)72°F
44063 - Annapolis 17 mi33 min NW 9.7 G 12 78°F 1010.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi39 min 77°F 1009.8 hPa
CPVM2 20 mi33 min 77°F 70°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi39 min W 9.9 G 13 76°F 1010.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi33 min 76°F 85°F1011 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 81°F1010.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi39 min WSW 7 G 8.9 76°F 83°F1010.3 hPa
FSNM2 34 mi39 min N 9.9 G 13 76°F 1010.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 34 mi33 min N 8.9 G 11 77°F 1010.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi33 min N 9.9 G 11 76°F 83°F1010.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi33 min NE 7 G 12 77°F 85°F1010 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi33 min W 4.1 G 6 75°F 84°F1010.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi45 min W 8.9 G 13
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi33 min WSW 14 G 16 79°F 86°F1010.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi33 min WSW 14 G 16 76°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi69 minNW 310.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1010.2 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD19 mi67 minWNW 710.00 miFair76°F68°F77%1011.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi68 minWNW 910.00 miFair79°F69°F74%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4SW3CalmS3S4SW3S4SW5W5SW8W9SW9W9SW8W8W6W5S4SW4W4W4SW3W7
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2 days agoSW5SW3CalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmSW3CalmSW4SW10CalmS7SW11S8S8S8S7S7S7S7S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Rose Haven, Maryland
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Rose Haven
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:59 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.21.10.90.70.60.60.70.91110.80.70.50.40.30.40.50.711.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:49 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.