Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kings Park, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 3:32AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1236 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Overnight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Periods of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow or sleet or rain likely.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then snow with rain likely in the afternoon.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1236 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through Thursday morning. Low pressure will track through the great lakes later Thursday and Thursday night, and the cold front associated with this low will pass through the waters Friday. Another low pressure system will affect the area over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday. A gale warning may be needed on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings Park, VA
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location: 38.8, -77.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170308
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1008 pm est Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through the region tonight. Low pressure
will approach from the ohio valley Thursday, then cross the
mid atlantic Thursday night. Arctic high pressure building in
from southern canada will briefly nose into the region Friday,
before a large area of low pressure develops over the mid
mississippi valley tracks northeast toward the area over the
weekend. The aforementioned high will build over the area early
next week after the weekend storm departs.

Near term tonight
High pressure is situated over the deep south this evening as a
cold front stretches across the ohio valley and into upstate new
york. This cold front will make its way southward tonight and
cross the area with little fanfare as conditions will remain
dry outside of a few upslope snow showers. The latest satellite
imagery depicts ample cloudiness stretching from the i-66
corridor northward into central pennsylvania. High clouds
are streaming eastward through the ohio valley and the lower
great lakes, which will track overhead overnight. The 00z iad
upper air sounding measured a moist layer at 850mb where the
aforementioned clouds reside, with uniform northwesterly winds
aloft. Given this, temperatures will run a bit warmer tonight,
with lows bottoming out in the low to mid 20s, sticking near 30
degrees in the city centers. Current forecast on track with no
significant updates needed at this time.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
A low pressure system will approach the great lakes on Thursday as
its associated cold front approaches our area. This system will
bring (mainly light) snow into our area in the afternoon and into
the evening hours, impacting the rush hour. Soundings suggest this
will be a mainly snow event, with rain to our southeast. QPF values
are generally at or below 0.25", which means light accumulations
over our area, with snow maxima near two inches of snow most likely
somewhere west of i-95 (nw va E wv).

Most model pops don't bring QPF into the i-95 corridor until after 7
or 8pm, but low mid-level frontal forcing beneath subtle upper jet
divergence suggests precipitation would more likely break out
between 4 and 6pm, so trended the forecast a touch earlier than
guidance. Given some moderately strong mid-level pva, brief locally
moderate snow is possible. Temperatures will fall quickly around
sunset with any untreated surfaces likely quickly becoming
slippery.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Two main mid-upper level features will play a role in the forecast
for this weekend. The first will be a trough embedded in the
southern stream, initially located over the southern plains. The
second will be a trough in northwesterly flow diving down from
manitoba and ontario toward the northern tier of states. The area of
low pressure that will impact the area will initially be forced
nearly entirely by the southern stream system. Through the day
Saturday, the trough and it's associated surface low will track off
to the east-northeast across the mississippi and tennessee valleys.

Meanwhile, the trough embedded in the northern stream will track
southeastward across southern canada toward the great lakes. The
trend in model guidance over the last few runs has been for these
features to remain separate slightly longer, before ultimately
phasing off to our northeast. This would favor a slightly less
amplified, more southern stream driven system at least initially,
and could result in a slightly further south and east track of the
system. This may result in cold air being able to hold on over the
region slightly longer compared to previous model runs, especially
over northwestern portions of the forecast area.

As the surface low approaches from the tennessee valley, warm
advection aloft will overspread the area by late Saturday afternoon
allowing precipitation to breakout. With a strong area of high
pressure to our north, cold air will be in place ahead of the
system. Precipitation may initially fall in the form of a wintry mix
or snow (as indicated by the 12z nam), especially across
northwestern portions of the forecast area. As the area of low
pressure approaches and warm advection continues Saturday night, most
guidance has any wintry mix or snow transitioning over to rain.

However, if the southeastward trend in the track of the low
continues further, it's possible that northwestern portions of the
forecast area hang onto frozen precipitation a bit longer into the
overnight hours. The surface low will track either overhead or just
to our northwest Sunday morning, allowing chances for showers to
continue through the morning. Some isolated flooding may be possible
as the rain falls on top of any leftover snowpack from last
weekend's storm.

As the system tracks further off to our northeast it will drive a
potent cold front through the area during the day Sunday.

Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front falling from the 40s
and 50s to the 20s by evening. This will lead to a flash freeze of
any leftover standing water, and may result in hazardous travel
conditions.

Sunday night through Monday the main story will be the cold.

Temperatures will bottom out in the upper single digits to teens
Sunday night, which when combined with windy conditions will lead to
below zero wind chills Sunday night. Wind chills could even approach
20 below across higher elevation locations of the allegheny front
and blue ridge. Some residual upslope snow showers may be possible
Sunday afternoon and night along the allegheny front, but otherwise
dry conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday. Winds will
slacken off Monday night and Tuesday, but conditions will remain dry
and cold as high pressure builds in from the west.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Vfr ovc-bkn deck resides over all terminals this evening except
cho. This will continue to be the case through the night as a
weak cold front moves across the area. With no precipitation in
the forecast, and CIGS forecast to remainVFR, no flight
restrictions anticipated tonight.

Low pressure approaches the region from the west on Thursday.

Periods of snow will begin from west to east tomorrow afternoon, and
continue into Friday morning, with visibility and ceiling
restrictions likely falling into MVFR or ifr at times. As the cold
front clears the area on Friday, expecting MVFR conditions to
return as precipitation departs before sunrise.

Sub-vfr conditions appear possible Saturday night into early Sunday
morning as a storm system tracks approaches the area then tracks
nearly overhead. Gusty northwesterly winds will be possible Sunday
afternoon through Monday in the wake of the departing system.

Marine
A weak cold front will cross the waters overnight, maintaining
light northwesterly breezes under mostly cloudy skies.

A low pressure system will move northwest of our region Thursday and
will drag a cold front over our area on Thursday night into Friday.

Snow and rain are possible over the waters with this system. Winds
are expected to remain below SCA criteria through this period. Dry
conditions expected for Friday into Friday night. Mixing may allow
for SCA criteria to be reached during the daytime hours.

A SCA may be needed Saturday night through Sunday morning in
southerly flow ahead of an area of low pressure. Gale level
northwesterly winds may be possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night as the system departs off to the northeast.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Bkf
short term... Imr
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bkf cjl kjp
marine... Bkf kjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi58 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 38°F1027.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi118 min Calm 33°F 1026 hPa28°F
NCDV2 35 mi58 min N 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 40°F1026.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi58 min 37°F 1026.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi28 min WSW 8 G 8.9 37°F 38°F1027.6 hPa (+0.4)25°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi58 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 37°F 40°F1026 hPa
CPVM2 49 mi58 min 38°F 24°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi58 min W 8 G 8.9 38°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA7 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair34°F23°F63%1027.4 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi36 minW 410.00 miOvercast39°F23°F53%1027.2 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA14 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair27°F24°F89%1028.4 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA15 mi36 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast34°F25°F70%1027 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi32 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds29°F27°F92%1028 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi92 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F22°F59%1027 hPa
College Park Airport, MD22 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F23°F60%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW11NW9W6NW10NW5NW7NW5NW7NW9NW4N3N5N3NW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW12NW9NW6NW10N5NW7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6NW4NW4NW4CalmNW5N3N4N4N3NW6NW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.