Wednesday, July26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday July 26, 2017 12:32 AM EDT (04:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1032 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 kt...becoming e. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through Wednesday. The next frontal system will approach on Thursday and pass through the region Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260147
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
947 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

High pressure centered over the great lakes will track east and
move overhead on Wednesday before drifting offshore on
Thursday. Low pressure developing over the great lakes and ohio
valley will push a warm front towards the region Thursday night.

That low slowly moves across the northeast through the end of
the week. High pressure eventually builds in from the west for
the weekend and moves offshore early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
The forecast from the day shifts looks pretty well track so no
big changes were made. There are a few showers still drifting
over the area but the coverage is decreasing and high-res model
guidance indicate they show dissipate overnight. Pops for the
overnight period were reduced to remove the slight chance attm.

Surface high pressure is gradually building into the area but
low level clouds and moisture are trapped beneath an inversion
and are expected to persist through the night. Current temps and
winds are on track with the forecast.

Previous discussion below...

high pressure is centered over the great lakes and will
continue its journey to the northeast tonight, moving over over
our area by early Wednesday morning.

Flow around the high will keep us in a more north and east flow
regime. Winds will generally become light overnight and any
directional component will favor the east. With easterly flow
enmeshed over the area, we will see more clouds through the
overnight period. Additionally, moisture trapped below the
inversion will allow for some light showers drizzle and some fog
to develop.

Overall, it will remain cool tonight with lows in the mid to
upper 50s over the poconos and northern new jersey and low to
mid 60s the lehigh valley, delaware valley, central southern new
jersey and delmarva.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
The high will slide across the region on Wednesday. As the high
shifts overhead, winds should become more southerly through the
day. Skies will remain pretty cloudy at the start of the day as
the marine layer wins out. However, we should start to see some
clearing out later in the morning and some Sun will be present
in the region.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side and in the 70s. A few
locations may break out, especially across the southern and
western areas and some lower 80s will be possible there.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Overview... Unsettled weather on tap for most of the late week
period as intensifying low pressure slowly works across the
region. High pressure returns for the new week.

High pressure continues to drift offshore Wednesday night.

Behind the departing high, a warm front lifts north through the
region, and a warmer and more humid airmass will spread to the
north and east. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low to mid
80s, and surface dewpoints begin to creep back up into the
upper 60s and low 70s.

Upper trough with several strong shortwaves then approaches
ahead of a developing system upstream. That trough should be
enough to trigger some late afternoon and evening showers and

From here, there is considerable uncertainty among the models.

Low pressure develops over the great lakes and deepens over the
ohio valley. This pushes another warm front into the region
Thursday night, and then strong s-sw flow develops along much of
the east coast. Low level moisture increases throughout the
region, and pwats increase to over 2". The main problem is that
the placement of the low varies among the models. The GFS keeps
the low well south of the region Friday, and then that low
passes through the DELMARVA and moves offshore Friday night
through Saturday morning. The NAM is a bit quicker and a bit
farther north, bringing a slug of heavy precip across much of nj
Friday before a secondary low develops and slides across the
delmarva Friday night. It is key to note that the final frame of
the 12z NAM is 00z Saturday, and the secondary low is right
over de bay at that time. The 12z cmc-gdps is similar to the nam
in that it brings one low across the region during the day
Friday with a slug of heavy rain, and then a secondary low sits
over the region Friday night through Saturday, finally departing
Saturday night. The ECMWF also features a round of precip
Friday as one low passes through the region, followed by a
secondary low with more precip Friday night and into Saturday.

Given the uncertainty, will follow closely to the superblend
guidance, as well as wpc long range guidance. This means likely
pops Thursday night and Friday, and then chance pops Friday
night and Saturday. Will continue to mention a chance for
thunderstorms, as well as heavy rain.

There is the potential for some 2-4 inches of rain, which, in
and of itself, could pose flooding problems. But given the mount
of rain that fell over the last couple of days, it is important
to follow this system, as additional flooding problems may occur
during the late week period.

Important to note the NAM showing a strong llj, generally on
the order of 40-50 kt, that does not show up on the gfs.

Wpc day 3 outlook (12z Thursday to 12z Friday) has most of the
delaware valley and the DELMARVA in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall, and SPC day 3 outlook (12z Thursday to 12z Friday) has
the whole CWA under a slight risk for severe weather.

Once this system departs, high pressure builds in from the west
by Sunday, and gradually moves offshore through Tuesday.

Temperatures will be near to just below normal with relatively
comfortable humidity levels.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions will deteriorate later this evening and
overnight as light onshore flow continues to stream low level
moisture in the region. Widespread MVFR conditions are expected
overnight in a mix of low clouds and possibly some fog. Isolated
showers are possible through this evening.

Conditions will improve through Wednesday morning becomingVFR
everywhere between 13z-16z. The winds will pick up out of the
east before become more south to southeast through the day.

Outlook... .

Wednesday night... Potential for MVFR or lower cigs.

Thursday... Potential for MVFR or ifr CIGS in shra tsra, mainly
in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday night through Friday night... Ifr or lower conditions in
moderate to heavy rain. Chance for tsra as well.

Saturday... Lingering sub-vfr conditions possible through the day
in -shra.

Saturday night... Improving conditions.


Relatively quiet conditions are expected to continue on the
area waters through Wednesday. Seas are around 3 to 4 feet on
the ocean with winds around 10 to 15 knots. Winds will lighten
up overnight and again be around 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday.


Wednesday night... Sub-sca conditions.

Thursday through Friday night... Generally sub-sca conditions
with gusts to 20 kt likely. Heavy rain with vsby restrictions

Saturday... SCA conditions possible as low pressure works its way
across the waters.

Sunday... Improving conditions on the waters.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is
expected for the new jersey beaches in atlantic, ocean and
monmouth counties owing to an underlying longer period swell and
a relatively strong northeast wind (15-20 mph). Farther south
along the coast, where the winds will be lighter and backed out
of the north or northwest, the risk is lower.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides will continue to decrease as we get further
from the new moon. However, onshore flow continues. Therefore,
minor tidal flooding is expected along the new jersey shore and
delaware beaches and the nearby back bays. It is much less
certain if minor flooding will occur along the shores of the
upper delaware bay and the tidal delaware river. For these
locations the wind direction is not favorable for minor tidal
flooding and unlike the last few days, there won't be any heavy
rain exacerbating already high tides. Therefore, will hold off
on an advisory for the tidal delware river, but will watch tidal
levels along the lower bay very closely this evening.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for njz012>014-

De... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for dez003-004.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Amc meola
short term... Meola
long term... Mps
aviation... Amc meola mps
marine... Meola mps
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi33 min N 8.9 G 9.9 75°F 82°F
CPVM2 16 mi45 min 76°F 65°F
44063 - Annapolis 16 mi33 min N 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 82°F1 ft1022.7 hPa (+1.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi57 min 73°F 85°F1022.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi45 min 74°F 1021.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi33 min NE 12 G 16 77°F 82°F2 ft1022.4 hPa (+1.2)
44043 - Patapsco, MD 26 mi33 min N 9.7 G 12 75°F 82°F1 ft1022.3 hPa (+1.2)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi123 min Calm 67°F 1022 hPa65°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi45 min E 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 83°F1022.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi45 min E 12 G 14 75°F 1022.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi45 min N 8 G 8.9 74°F 1022.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi45 min N 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 84°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi45 min NNE 6 G 8.9 74°F 84°F1021.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi45 min E 11 G 12 74°F 81°F1021.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi45 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 85°F1022 hPa
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 44 mi45 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 1021.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi63 min NW 1.9 69°F 1022 hPa69°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi35 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F65°F82%1023.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi48 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F62°F73%1022 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi39 minN 510.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1022 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F66°F88%1022 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN6NE5NE3N4N3CalmN6N8N10
1 day agoS7NW7
2 days agoSW5S3SW5S3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW7NW5NW3W4NW3CalmSW7SW7CalmSW5E5SE5CalmCalmSE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
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Wed -- 01:25 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Wed -- 01:45 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:22 PM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.