Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday July 21, 2018 10:59 PM EDT (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 12:28AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1032 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..N winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Becoming W with gusts to 25 kt, then becoming sw with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms late this evening. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An area of low pressure will move near the delmarva coastline tonight before another low approaches from the west on Sunday and stalls into early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Monday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220155
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
955 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening,
then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest
will drift south into the southeast u.S. Through the middle of next
week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the
week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Surface low pressure, as of 9 pm, was centered over the lower
delmarva. This low is forecast to slide north-northwestward
through the night. An easterly low-level jet near 50 knots is
working northward, and a mesoanalysis shows some instability
creeping onto the coastal areas from off the ocean. It is here
where dew points have risen to around 70 degrees. While a few
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the ongoing
bands of heavier rain sliding northward, looks like the main
instability is held just offshore. Still kept a slight chance of
thunder for the far eastern areas for awhile tonight. Some
lightning has been observed just west of chesapeake bay within
an area of strong frontogenetic forcing to the northwest of the
surface low. This heavier rain looks to slide just to our west
into the overnight hours.

The southern edge of the rain is working into southern delaware
and it looks like the threat for flash flooding has diminished across
the southern areas. Since the heavier showers offshore look to
rotated north-northwestward into the overnight and probably
across the philadelphia metro, maintained the flash flood watch
for now. The watch however was cancelled for marylands eastern
shore, delaware and far southern new jersey.

The easterly winds have increased especially along the coast
with some gusts to 40 mph thus far. Some additional increase
should take place over the next several hours as the surface low
works north-northwest and the low-level jet strengthens some
northward. As a result, no changes to the earlier issued wind
advisory.

Did speed up the decreasing pops across the southern areas
especially as a dry slot works in over the next few hours. The
hourly temperature, dew point, wind and wind gust grids were
adjusted based on the latest observations then these were
blended into mostly continuity.

Otherwise, as the low tracks across pennsylvania later tonight,
drier air begins to move in on the backside, and precipitation
will begin to come to an end front south to north. Areas across
northeast pennsylvania and northern new jersey may hold on to
rain until daybreak Sunday.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As the low pressure system continues to lift to our north and
northwest toward the great lakes in the morning hours, most
precipitation will come to an end. However, our area will still be
under the influence of south-southwest flow aloft, along with
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will allow for
temperatures to warm during the day, especially if any sunshine
breaks out. This will lead to increasing instability during the day,
and with any short wave vorticity impulses moving across the area,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through the day Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. Since
storms are expected to be mostly scattered, and there is not overly
strong instability or shear expected, we are not expecting widespread
severe weather. Nor are we expecting widespread flooding as pw
values will be below 2 inches and any storms should be fairly
progressive.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
upcoming week and at least the first part of next weekend. This
unsettled pattern can be attributed to a high amplitude pattern that
consists of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and
downstream ridge blocking over the western atlantic basin.

Tropospheric-deep southerly flow in between these two systems will
continue to draw tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard,
resulting in very muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 70s) and [at
least the threat of] multiple rounds of showers and storms each day.

Unlike with today's event, there doesn't appear to be any organized
synoptic disturbance(s) in particular to produce widespread rain
and or result in a washout on most days next week except possibly
sometime midweek when the cutoff low to our west becomes an open
wave and finally lifts northeastward through the region. Models
continue to struggle figuring out how quickly the shortwave trough
ejects downstream toward the mid atlantic but the spread has
narrowed between sometime Wednesday and Thursday. This timing
uncertainty prevented us from going much higher with pops in any one
period.

The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding this week will increase as
soils become increasingly wet and stages rise in area basins
following each successive round of rainfall. Potential hydro impacts
will be added to the hwo. With convective coverage much more
disorganized than with today's event, heavy rainfall should be much
more localized and thus responses from runoff on the larger river
basins next week is highly uncertain.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions overall, although locallyVFR
conditions will occur at times this evening. The rain will end
from south to north mostly in the 05z-08z time frame. East-
northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest
gusts closer to the coast), then becoming southeast and
diminishing overnight. An east to southeast low-level jet at
2000 feet of 40-50 knots will result in low-level wind shear
even with the gusty surface winds.

Sunday... Mainly ifr to start, then the conditions are expected
to improve to MVFR during the morning and may improve toVFR
during the afternoon for some areas. There should be a lull in
the showers for a time in the morning, then some showers and a
few thunderstorms develop especially in the afternoon. Southeast
to south winds around 10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots
possible during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week though activity will
generally not be widespread and or steady. Periods of sub-vfr
conditions are possible with this activity. SE winds generally
5-15 kt through Tuesday, becoming S Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all of the coastal waters,
including delaware bay. The winds on delaware bay should drop
below gale force by 06z. The northern portions of the new
jersey coastal waters are expected to have the strongest winds
(40-45 knots). There is a brief window for an isolated gust to
reach 50 knots, but we are uncertain how much mixing will occur
and if those strongest winds mix down to the surface. So for now
we have kept with the gale warning.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... SCA will likely be needed. S-se winds
10- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal atlantic waters.

Waves will continue to remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range.

Monday night through Wednesday... S-se winds will weaken to below sca
criteria. However, a SCA will likely be needed with seas forecast to
remain near 5 ft.

Wednesday night and Thursday... S winds increase slightly to 15-20 kt
with a chance for 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters. Nonetheless, a
sca will likely be needed with seas still around 5 ft.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents has been extended through early Sunday
evening for the new jersey and delaware beaches.

Strong onshore flow this evening along with dangerous surf is
resulting in a high risk of rip currents. As for Sunday, the
surf looks to remain agitated despite low pressure well to our
north. The wave period should lengthen some and with a gusty
south to southeast wind, the high risk of rip currents was extended
through Sunday.

An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.

Equipment
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.

The current estimated return to service is early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for paz060-070-071-
101>106.

Nj... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for njz014-
024>026.

Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for njz015-017>020-022-
025>027.

Wind advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for njz012>014-020-026.

De... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Sunday for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 1 am edt Sunday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Gorse robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein robertson
equipment... Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi60 min N 19 G 22 72°F 78°F1004.7 hPa (-2.4)72°F
CPVM2 16 mi48 min 72°F 72°F
44063 - Annapolis 17 mi40 min N 14 G 18 72°F 1004.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi42 min 74°F 80°F1002.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi48 min 71°F 1003.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi40 min E 16 G 19 75°F 1005 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi150 min NNE 2.9 64°F 1006 hPa64°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi42 min NE 6 G 9.9 70°F 78°F1004.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi42 min E 14 G 17 73°F 1002.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi42 min NNE 17 G 21 69°F 1004.3 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi42 min NNE 19 G 25 68°F 1004 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi42 min NNW 5.1 G 7 74°F 80°F1002.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi48 min NE 15 G 19 69°F 81°F1005 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi42 min E 8.9 G 12 76°F 82°F1001.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi48 min N 8.9 G 12 68°F 82°F1005.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi150 min ENE 4.1 73°F 1007 hPa73°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi75 minENE 14 G 205.00 miLight Rain73°F71°F94%1004.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi85 minNE 10 G 173.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist70°F69°F100%1004.7 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi2.1 hrsNE 13 G 242.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F70°F90%1005.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi85 minNE 103.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4SE3E3E4E4E4E5E5E7E6E7NE13
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1 day agoS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE5SE5SE5E6S5SE8S5SE9SE8SE6SE6SE5SE6SE7SE6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE4E5NE5NE7NE6NE6E6N4CalmCalmCalmNW5NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
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Sat -- 12:24 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.91.81.61.41.10.90.80.70.91.11.31.41.31.210.70.50.40.40.50.81.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:45 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
110.90.60.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.30.10.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-00.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.