Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michaels, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:51PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:27 AM EST (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:41PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 636 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt late. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 2 ft late.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 636 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move off to the northeast this morning. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michaels, MD
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location: 38.81, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161126
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
626 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Strong low pressure off the new jersey coast early this morning
will move northeastward, reaching nova scotia this evening.

High pressure is expected to build into our region from the west
for Saturday and Sunday. A cold front approaching from the
northwest is anticipated to arrive on Sunday night with another
cold front following on Tuesday. High pressure is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The coastal storm was located off sandy hook around 6:00 am. It
will continue to progress northeastward today. As it moves away
from our region, we are expecting a westerly wind around 15 to
25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Wind speeds may begin to
diminish slowly this afternoon.

A mid level low passing over eastern pennsylvania and northern
new jersey around daybreak will move up over new england this
morning. It will take the last of the snow showers and rain
showers with it. Little additional snow accumulation is
anticipated.

We will allow the final segments of the winter storm warning to
expire at 9:00 am.

We are expecting a decrease in cloud cover today as the storm
moves farther away from our region.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 40s, with
readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of
the poconos and far northern new jersey.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Dry air will continue to build into our region from the west
for tonight. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky along with
a west wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s to
the lower 30s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following the coastal
storm. The weekend looks fairly tranquil.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter
weather will continue to move away to our northeast, leading to
a cool, but fall-like stretch of weather Saturday and Sunday.

Cloud cover to the north across the poconos and northern new
jersey Saturday will slowly build southward through the weekend,
but conditions will remain dry. A subtle cold front surface
trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon, but we will
remain dry across the forecast area. While highs will still be
about ten degrees below average, it will feel nice compared to
today's well-below average high temperatures.

A cold front is expected to reach our region on Sunday night.

There may be some light snow and rain showers with the feature
from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern pennsylvania, and in
northern and central new jersey. High pressure should return for
the middle of the new week, building just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Lingering ifr conditions with scattered rain and snow
showers through about 12z to 13z, then improvement toVFR for
the remainder of the day. West northwest wind 15 to 25 knots
with gusts into the 30s.

Tonight...VFR, mainly clear. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions.

Sunday-Monday...VFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
The last of the storm warning was allowed to expire at 6:00 am.

A gale warning is in effect until 4:00 pm for the coastal
waters of new jersey and delaware. A gale warning is in effect
for delaware bay until 1:00 pm. Wind speeds will be slow to
decrease as the strong area of low pressure moves northeastward
and away from our region. The wind direction on our waters will
settle into the west northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tides coastal flooding
The storm surge increased to 3+ feet along the central and
northern parts of the new jersey coast out ahead of the coastal
storm overnight. As a result, there was minor coastal flooding
with some localized moderate flooding.

Fortunately, the astronomical tides are quite low as we are at
the first quarter phase of the moon. If the 3+ foot surge took
place around the time of a new or full moon, we would have been
experiencing moderate to major flooding.

The overnight high tide should be the only cycle of concern.

The wind is forecast to be westerly for this afternoon's high
tide, pushing water away from the coast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 9 am est this morning for paz054-
055-062.

Nj... Winter storm warning until 9 am est this morning for njz001-
007-008.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Iovino
short term... Iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Iovino robertson
marine... Iovino robertson
tides coastal flooding... Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 13 mi87 min W 14 G 16 38°F 50°F1010 hPa (+4.3)33°F
CPVM2 16 mi39 min 40°F 32°F
44063 - Annapolis 17 mi33 min W 12 G 12 39°F 1010.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 18 mi39 min 49°F1010.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 19 mi39 min 40°F 1009.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi37 min 42°F 1011.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi117 min W 2.9 36°F 1009 hPa33°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi39 min WNW 19 G 23 40°F 47°F1009.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi39 min WNW 12 G 16 39°F 1011.6 hPa
FSNM2 33 mi39 min W 11 G 15 38°F 1009.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 33 mi39 min W 11 G 12 39°F 1009.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi39 min WSW 9.9 G 13 42°F 53°F1011.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi39 min WNW 4.1 G 7 52°F1009.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 42 mi39 min W 19 G 24 42°F 46°F1011.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi39 min W 4.1 G 8.9 41°F 47°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD7 mi37 minW 12 G 2210.00 miClear41°F33°F76%1011.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD13 mi47 minWNW 1210.00 miFair39°F33°F81%1010.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi47 minWNW 6 G 1210.00 miFair39°F33°F81%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NE9
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1 day agoNW10
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NW8NW8NW9NW6NW6NW3N3N3N5N6N6--------------NE8N10NE9
2 days agoW13NW6W8W8NW12
G18
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G18
W10NW7NW10W8--------------NW10
G14
NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michaels, Miles River, Maryland
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St. Michaels
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:47 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:05 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:08 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.70.50.40.40.50.60.911.110.90.70.60.40.40.40.60.81.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:14 PM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.50.60.60.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.300.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.