Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Basye, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 8:59AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 435 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 218 in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the north through this evening before passing through overnight. High pressure will gradually build overhead Friday through Friday night and a warm front will approach the waters Saturday. A weak cold front will move in from the north Sunday, but it will likely stall out nearby through Monday. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Basye, VA
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location: 38.81, -78.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231846
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
246 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the north through this evening
before passing through overnight into early Friday. High
pressure will briefly build overhead later Friday through Friday
night before moving offshore Saturday. A weak cold front will
stall out nearby for Sunday and Monday, and a bermuda high may
cause hot and humid conditions during the middle portion of next
week.

Near term through tonight
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8 pm this evening
for much of northern virginia, central and southern maryland,
and eastern west virginia.

A south to southwest flow has caused a return of noticeably
warmer and more humid conditions this afternoon. Latest
mesoanalysis shows around 1000-2000 j kg of MLCAPE developing
ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms. The line of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to pass through the
washington and baltimore metropolitan areas between 3 and 5 pm
this afternoon, and then across southern maryland into central
virginia later this afternoon into early this evening. Deep
layer shear remains quite strong (around 45-50 knots ahead of
the line). The combination of the instability and strong shear
suggests that severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary threats. The best chance
for severe storms are most likely near and east of the blue
ridge mountains across northern virginia into the virginia
piedmont as well as the washington and baltimore metropolitan
areas southern maryland. These areas are east of a pressure
trough, and somewhat higher dewpoints has allowed for the higher
instability. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the
strong shear as well.

The cold front will drop into the area from the north this
evening before slowly moving through our area into central
virginia overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the frontal passage later this evening, and with
strong shear in place there is a threat for severe
thunderstorms. However, confidence is lower due to the loss of
daytime heating. Convection should dissipate overnight as the
front drops farther south and drier air begins to filter in from
the northwest.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
The cold front will continue to drop south Friday and weak high
pressure will build overhead later Friday into Friday night.

Warm conditions will continue, but it will turn out breezy and
noticeably less humid behind the boundary.

High pressure will move offshore Saturday and a return southerly
flow will usher in a return of more humid conditions. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and
evening, especially west of the blue ridge mountains where
instability will be higher and there will be a pressure trough
that acts as of lifting mechanism.

Warm and humid conditions are expected Saturday night due to a
southwest flow around high pressure offshore.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Sunday will be a very warm and potentially unstable day, with a
cold front dropping toward the region. Timing will be key, as
there is the potential for another active afternoon evening if
the front drops south of the md pa border overlapping with any
daytime heating.

Present indications suggest that the boundary could sag south of
the area Monday, but the ridge will intensify Tuesday-
Wednesday. If that holds true, the middle of next week will be
very warm if not hot. However, anticipate model fluctuations on
these details. This would also impact thunderstorm chances,
which at this point don't look very high.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely pass through the
terminals this afternoon, between 19 and 21z. The best chance
for thunderstorms will be across kiad, kbwi, kmtn, and kdca.

Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible.

A cold front will pass through the terminals tonight. Another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late
this evening, but confidence is lower due to the loss of daytime
heating.VFR conditions are expected most of the time Friday
through Saturday. Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots
Friday before diminishing Friday evening. Winds will turn to
the south for Saturday.

The only apparent flight restrictions at this time would be within
showers thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon-evening seems to be the
best opportunity.

Marine
A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely pass through the
waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Damaging
winds and large hail are possible, and a waterspout cannot be
ruled out. Storms are most likely to pass through between 4 pm
and 7 pm this afternoon and early evening.

Another round of showers and gusty thunderstorms are possible
later this evening, but confidence is lower due to the loss of
daytime heating.

A small craft advisory is in effect for the waters until
midnight. There may be a brief lull in the stronger gradient
winds overnight before winds increase behind a cold front
Friday. A small craft advisory is in effect for the waters
Friday into Friday evening. High pressure will briefly build
overhead Friday night before moving offshore Saturday.

Thunderstorms may be affecting the waters late Sunday, with
northwest flow conducive for small craft advisories behind the
front, lingering into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated water levels are expected through this evening due to a
southerly flow, but confidence is too low for an advisory due to
a westerly component to the wind and the fact that the next high
tide will be the lower of the two this evening.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 8 pm edt Friday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Hts
aviation... Bjl hts
marine... Bjl hts
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 94 mi39 min S 5.1 G 7 72°F 71°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Grant County Airport, WV22 mi74 minW 16 G 2610.00 miFair82°F61°F50%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from W45 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5S3CalmS6S4S6N8NW16
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CalmN6N3NE3N3CalmN5N8
1 day agoN3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW8N6N7
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S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:17 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.51.91.30.80.60.50.81.62.43.13.33.22.82.21.71.10.70.40.40.81.62.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:59 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.20.10.20.50.81.11.21.31.210.80.60.30-0.10.10.40.60.80.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.