Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Basye, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:57 PM EST (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:19PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 133 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain and sleet.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 133 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing along the carolina coast today will strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island tonight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Basye, VA
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location: 38.81, -78.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 151451
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
951 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure along the southeast coast this morning will move
north towards long island by tonight. High pressure will build
in from the ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front will
likely approach from the great lakes early next week.

Near term through tonight
Latest surface analysis depicts low pressure is strengthening
near myrtle beach, moving northeast. To the north, high
pressure is centered over northern new york. Aloft, a closed low
is centered over the mid- mississippi valley, heading east-
northeast. The 12z iad sounding showed a profile that was
completely near or below freezing, which combined with intense
precipitation rate, led to a quick 1-2 inches of snow across the
metro areas. Dual pol radar data indicate transitions to other
precipitation types are moving north across the area. Will have
to monitor this northern progression, because recent narre runs
indicate a high chance of snow along the pa border until well
into the afternoon. If this happens, a few additional counties
may need to be upgraded to a warning. Based on the temperature
profile, elevations above 1500 feet may be prone to significant
icing. The existing warnings largely cover these areas, but
impacts (especially to trees) will likely be greater on the
ridges.

For the rest of today, the low will continue to strengthen as
it heads north- northeast along the coast, reaching the virginia
capes this evening and long island by late tonight. Cold air
damming thanks to the high to our north will help keep regions
west of the blue ridge below freezing all day, with these areas
also holding the colder air aloft longer. Thus, winter storm
warnings remain in effect for these regions with the highest
accumulations of snow and ice expected. East of the blue ridge,
snow and ice accumulations will be lower. As the low gets closer
later today, the warm air aloft will gradually win out, with
mainly ice or rain expected later in the day. Surface warming is
also expected, but at a slower pace. The i-95 corridor from dc
south remains mostly above freezing and is changing over to
rain, but closer to the blue ridge the change may be delayed til
evening, and west of the blue ridge it may never happen. Where
precip does become all rain, heavier rain is possible with
precip amounts of 1-2 inches likely, so given much diminished
vegetation and already saturated conditions, a flood watch has
been issued.

The whole system rapidly pushes northeast and precip starts
tapering off this evening. Some wraparound moisture may bring a
last burst of rain overnight, which could even change back to
snow as temperatures aloft cool while the surface low heads
northeast of us and winds shift to the northwest. However, do
not anticipated significant accumulations with this band near
i-95.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday,
with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday
night. Drying and warming will the the predominate theme, with
highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing. Some
high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday night
thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the
ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
On Sunday, a vigorous piece of upper level shortwave energy
will be moving across the area, bringing cloudier conditions on
Sunday. This system could also bring some showers, primarily
west of the blue ridge due to upslope flow. With temperatures
dipping into the low 30s Sunday night into early Monday morning,
some snow showers could mix in as well, again in the higher
elevations west of the blue ridge. High temperatures on Sunday
will remain below average, only reaching the mid to upper 40s.

Showers could linger into Monday, west of the blue ridge in
areas prone to northwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer on Monday, but still below average.

On Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region,
bringing dry weather to the entire region. This will be a very
cold high pressure though, with continued below average
temperatures across the entire area. Highs will be in the low to
mid 40s.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Mixed precipitation will dominate much to the day. While at any
one time, precip may be dominated by one type or another, all
three types remain possible, although dca may have changed over
to rain for good. P-type will be transitioning away from snow
and towards rain as we head later in the day, though inland,
especially at mrb, fzra will likely dominate over ra. CIGS will
be ifr and some ifr vis (although periods of lifr will be
possible), and winds will be gusty from the northeast before
transitioning to northwest later tonight. Precip should end by
late tonight withVFR dominating Friday through Saturday night.

Vfr conditions are expected across all terminals in the long
term period.

Marine
Gusty NE winds between strong high pressure to the north and
developing coastal low moving up the east coast from the
carolinas are expected to result in gale conditions over the
lower tidal potomac river and middle chesapeake bay through
tonight, with SCA conditions elsewhere. Gales may need to be
extended into Friday morning, with solid SCA on NW flow behind
departing low expected all day before diminishing in the
evening.

Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure builds
overhead from the ohio valley.

Light winds expected on Sunday through Monday morning. Some
stronger wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, but not
expected to reach SCA criteria at this time.

Hydrology
Very strong vertical motion coupled with anomalously high
moisture advection and some conditional instability is expected
to result in a widespread moderately heavy soaking rain in the
i-95 corridor tonight into this evening, where FFG is about 1.5
inches in 6 hours. Given 1.5-2+ inches forecast, have opted to
go with a flood watch, especially since many area creeks and
streams are already running high going into this event.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies will continue to increase today in onshore ne
flow, with perhaps near minor flooding possible during this
evening's tide cycle. NW winds will cause levels to lower Friday
into the weekend.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
dcz001.

Flood watch through this evening for dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
mdz013-014-016-504.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz004>006-011-503-505>508.

Flood watch through this evening for mdz011-013-014-016>018-
504-506-508.

Va... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Friday for vaz025-503-504-
508.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for vaz026>031-507.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for vaz036>038-
050-056.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
vaz039-051>055-502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz040-501-505-506.

Flood watch through this evening for vaz052>057.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for wvz050>053-055-
501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Friday for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Gale warning until 6 am est Friday for anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for anz530-531-535-
536-538-539.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Ads rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Ads rcm cjl
marine... Ads rcm cjl
hydrology... Dhof
tides coastal flooding... Dhof
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 94 mi39 min NNE 4.1 G 9.9 35°F 48°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Grant County Airport, WV22 mi82 minN 01.25 miLight Snow30°F28°F93%1022 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmN5S3CalmS6S4S6N8NW16
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CalmN6N3NE3N3CalmN5N8
1 day agoN3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW8N6N7
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S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:58 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:18 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:56 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.72.31.81.30.80.50.40.40.91.62.12.52.62.421.40.90.50.40.40.81.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:47 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:33 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.80.60.40.20.10.20.50.70.80.90.90.80.60.50.40.20.10.30.50.811.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.