Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 7:57 PM   Moonset 5:21 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 240928 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 228 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early Saturday. Thunderstorm risks include, gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain and/or small hail. Be aware of rapidly changing conditions if recreating outdoors. Drier weather a slow warming trend return Sunday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Plan on a bit of a wet Wednesday ahead as the main trough shifts into CA today. Showers and thunderstorms overnight were initially produced from an upper level wave that passed through and then persisted due to the incoming upper level forcing from the eastward trekking trough. Simulations have been very consistent with enhanced divergence and forcing aloft aligning along and south of Highway 50 today that will result in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. We're looking at a 30-50% chance for wetting rains (greater than 0.10") for areas across Mineral and Mono counties through the evening. Can't rule out some accumulating snow for the Sierra above 8000 feet, with around 1-3" possible in the eastern Sierra and upwards of 6-8" possible for the White Mountains above 9000 feet.

Another trough drops in from the northwest Thursday and into the weekend. Plan on gusty winds, more rain, high Sierra snow and colder temperatures as we navigate to the end of the week. Anticipate widespread chances (50-90%) for showers Thursday PM through Friday PM, along with a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms and/or pellet showers. With the colder weather, elevations above 6500-7000 feet will see potential for accumulating snow. We're looking at a 25% chance for 4" of snow in the high Sierra, so nothing crazy, but way different than the past week's weather. Enhanced winds will materialize on Thursday as upper level winds increase across the Sierra and western Nevada. There is a low chance (20-30%) for gusts 50+ mph along far western Nevada, but most wind gusts will be in the 35-40 mph. High temperatures on Friday plummet below normal, and we will be running about ~20 degrees cooler earlier this week.

Simulations have been consistent with wrapping up much of the precipitation by Saturday, with drier conditions for Sunday into Monday. Ensemble clusters for early next week highlight a trough for the Pacific Northwest and a flatter ridge for the Sierra and western Nevada which would support drier conditions and a slow warming trend through Tuesday.

-Edan

AVIATION

Showers are still ongoing in a line from Mono Lake through KNFL to KWMC early this morning.

Storms will be focused near and south of Hwy-50 today. Showers and storms will develop mid-afternoon across southern Douglas, Mineral, and Mono counties. Shower and storms will persist across these areas through the evening. extend east along and east of the Hwy-95 corridor by late afternoon into the evening and migrate eastward into eastern NV overnight.

More widespread showers will migrate into the Sierra and western Nevada by Thursday into the start of the weekend with a bigger trough. Ahead of the main trough FL100 winds increase resulting in enhanced westerly surface winds (25-35 kts)Thursday afternoon.

-Edan


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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