Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michaels, MD
April 25, 2024 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 8:59 PM Moonset 5:51 AM |
ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 134 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 134 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will Wedge into the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. NExt substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.
high pressure will Wedge into the region for the end of the week, then move offshore over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Extensions may be needed due to southerly channeling Sunday into early next week. NExt substantial front to cross the waters looks to arrive by Tuesday bringing renewed chances for showers and Thunderstorms.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 251801 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 201 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure arrives from the Great Lakes today before shifting to our northeast and east on Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area later Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday before moving across our area later Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak shortwave trough now pushing offshore this afternoon will keep some scattered to broken mid-level clouds around through the remainder of the daytime. The isolated morning showers across the coastal plain have now moved offshore and weakened.
An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has settled into much of the area as high pressure is building to our northeast. High temperatures in the mid 50s are some 10-15 degrees below normal.
The cloud cover should gradually diminish into the evening, then mostly clear skies are anticipated for the overnight period.
High pressure will continue building to the north overnight with the gradient slacking off considerably after midnight or so.
With drier and cooler airmass in place, the mostly clear skies and light and variable to calm winds should maximize radiational cooling, particularly across interior portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Have kept the forecast leaning heavily toward the coldest guidance and even adjusted down a degree or two from there in the typical cold/sheltered locations across the coastal plain and NW NJ.
The result is near to sub-freezing temperatures and widespread frost development for much of our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones away from the immediate coast and outside of urban Philadelphia. Therefore, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning in these areas. For urban Philadelphia and points southwest into Delmarva, temperatures are forecast to fall well into the mid 30s away from the immediate coast. This is expected to result in areas of frost development given the light to calm winds and clear skies. A Frost Advisory was issued to highlight this threat. Can't rule out some interior portions near the MD/DE border dropping to near freezing, but any freezing temperatures will likely remain isolated enough to preclude a Freeze Warning there. Inland Cape May County and coastal Monmouth County were also included in the Frost Advisory, as winds should become calm enough for a time overnight to result in some frost development nearer to the coasts there.
For Friday, the high pressure across New England will begin to shift offshore. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10 mph across much of the area, keeping a relatively cool maritime airmass entrenched across the region. However, we will see some modification of the airmass compared to today, so temperatures should warm into the low 60s across most areas away from the coasts which will stay in the 50s. Expect mostly sunny skies and a cool breeze much of the day.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift to our east to start Friday, allowing high pressure to build across New England and the Mid Atlantic. After a cold start Friday morning, surface flow shifts south- southeast by the afternoon to allow some warming to begin. With mostly clear skies, high temps in the afternoon should reach low 60s inland. Onshore flow, however, will help keep the coastal communities and adjacent inland locations in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies to start the nighttime hours will aid in cooling, but increasing clouds overnight will help stave off runaway radiational cooling. We will still see temperatures dip into the mid 30s to low 40s with patchy frost possible in the most sheltered areas.
High pressure shifts offshore Saturday with an approaching warm front, expected to arrive around the evening timeframe. Winds will become more southerly with return flow of our offshore high aiding in the warm air advection we can expect as the warm front pushes through. That said, the increased cloud coverage will prevent us from warming up too much, with afternoon highs expected to reach the upper 50 to low 60s, right around or just warmer than on Friday. While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front probabilities and coverage remain rather minimal with the only mentionable POPs north and west of I-78.
Warmer overnight with the warm front passing through and cloud coverage preventing much radiational cooling. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure shifts to our south, allowing southwest flow to really crank up the warm air advection across the region. Sunday and Monday will look to bring some of the warmest temperatures we have seen thus far this season with mid to upper 70s on Sunday and low to mid 80s by Monday afternoon! Mostly dry across the region during this timeframe as well, though a few isolated showers or a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out mainly across the Poconos where the aforementioned warm front may linger nearby.
The stacked low shifting across the upper Midwest will slowly move into central Canada Monday into Tuesday, dragging along a cold front across the Ohio River Valley and eventually through the Mid Atlantic. This is where our next best chance for precipitation will come from and will be highly dependent on the timing of this low and its associated cold front. At the moment, some showers will be possible Monday night as the front gradually approaches the region, but the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday as the cold front, washing out at this point, finally arrives. Temperatures remain warm again Tuesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Not much cooler behind this weak cold front on Wednesday, however, with a surface high ridging in from the southeastern US to keep things on the mild side in the 70s.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of today...VFR with SCT to BKN clouds. Easterly winds near 5-10 kts shifting southeast by 22Z. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Southeast to east winds 5-10 kts early diminishing by 06Z to less than 5 kts favoring a northeast direction. Winds may become locally calm. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...A period of near MVFR ceilings possible, most likely Saturday night as a warm front pushes through. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.
MARINE
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet through today south of Manasquan before gradually diminishing this evening and into the overnight. Additionally, northeast winds have remained elevated near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts, although this will diminish into the evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM Friday for the Atlantic zones south of Manasquan. No additional hazards are expected through Friday with east winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
RH's across much of the region will get quite low today across our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones, and we've had little rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry.
Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 20-30% range. Northeast to east winds will be strongest this morning, diminishing into the afternoon when the lowest RH values are anticipated. Thus, there will be no special statements issued for danger of fire spread today.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062- 101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 201 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure arrives from the Great Lakes today before shifting to our northeast and east on Friday. A warm front should lift north of our area later Saturday, then a cold front gradually approaches later Monday before moving across our area later Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak shortwave trough now pushing offshore this afternoon will keep some scattered to broken mid-level clouds around through the remainder of the daytime. The isolated morning showers across the coastal plain have now moved offshore and weakened.
An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has settled into much of the area as high pressure is building to our northeast. High temperatures in the mid 50s are some 10-15 degrees below normal.
The cloud cover should gradually diminish into the evening, then mostly clear skies are anticipated for the overnight period.
High pressure will continue building to the north overnight with the gradient slacking off considerably after midnight or so.
With drier and cooler airmass in place, the mostly clear skies and light and variable to calm winds should maximize radiational cooling, particularly across interior portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Have kept the forecast leaning heavily toward the coldest guidance and even adjusted down a degree or two from there in the typical cold/sheltered locations across the coastal plain and NW NJ.
The result is near to sub-freezing temperatures and widespread frost development for much of our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones away from the immediate coast and outside of urban Philadelphia. Therefore, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning in these areas. For urban Philadelphia and points southwest into Delmarva, temperatures are forecast to fall well into the mid 30s away from the immediate coast. This is expected to result in areas of frost development given the light to calm winds and clear skies. A Frost Advisory was issued to highlight this threat. Can't rule out some interior portions near the MD/DE border dropping to near freezing, but any freezing temperatures will likely remain isolated enough to preclude a Freeze Warning there. Inland Cape May County and coastal Monmouth County were also included in the Frost Advisory, as winds should become calm enough for a time overnight to result in some frost development nearer to the coasts there.
For Friday, the high pressure across New England will begin to shift offshore. East to southeast winds will increase to near 10 mph across much of the area, keeping a relatively cool maritime airmass entrenched across the region. However, we will see some modification of the airmass compared to today, so temperatures should warm into the low 60s across most areas away from the coasts which will stay in the 50s. Expect mostly sunny skies and a cool breeze much of the day.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An upper-level trough is forecast to shift to our east to start Friday, allowing high pressure to build across New England and the Mid Atlantic. After a cold start Friday morning, surface flow shifts south- southeast by the afternoon to allow some warming to begin. With mostly clear skies, high temps in the afternoon should reach low 60s inland. Onshore flow, however, will help keep the coastal communities and adjacent inland locations in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies to start the nighttime hours will aid in cooling, but increasing clouds overnight will help stave off runaway radiational cooling. We will still see temperatures dip into the mid 30s to low 40s with patchy frost possible in the most sheltered areas.
High pressure shifts offshore Saturday with an approaching warm front, expected to arrive around the evening timeframe. Winds will become more southerly with return flow of our offshore high aiding in the warm air advection we can expect as the warm front pushes through. That said, the increased cloud coverage will prevent us from warming up too much, with afternoon highs expected to reach the upper 50 to low 60s, right around or just warmer than on Friday. While a few showers cannot be ruled out with this warm front probabilities and coverage remain rather minimal with the only mentionable POPs north and west of I-78.
Warmer overnight with the warm front passing through and cloud coverage preventing much radiational cooling. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure shifts to our south, allowing southwest flow to really crank up the warm air advection across the region. Sunday and Monday will look to bring some of the warmest temperatures we have seen thus far this season with mid to upper 70s on Sunday and low to mid 80s by Monday afternoon! Mostly dry across the region during this timeframe as well, though a few isolated showers or a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out mainly across the Poconos where the aforementioned warm front may linger nearby.
The stacked low shifting across the upper Midwest will slowly move into central Canada Monday into Tuesday, dragging along a cold front across the Ohio River Valley and eventually through the Mid Atlantic. This is where our next best chance for precipitation will come from and will be highly dependent on the timing of this low and its associated cold front. At the moment, some showers will be possible Monday night as the front gradually approaches the region, but the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday as the cold front, washing out at this point, finally arrives. Temperatures remain warm again Tuesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Not much cooler behind this weak cold front on Wednesday, however, with a surface high ridging in from the southeastern US to keep things on the mild side in the 70s.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of today...VFR with SCT to BKN clouds. Easterly winds near 5-10 kts shifting southeast by 22Z. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Southeast to east winds 5-10 kts early diminishing by 06Z to less than 5 kts favoring a northeast direction. Winds may become locally calm. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...A period of near MVFR ceilings possible, most likely Saturday night as a warm front pushes through. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.
MARINE
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet through today south of Manasquan before gradually diminishing this evening and into the overnight. Additionally, northeast winds have remained elevated near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts, although this will diminish into the evening. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM Friday for the Atlantic zones south of Manasquan. No additional hazards are expected through Friday with east winds 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
FIRE WEATHER
RH's across much of the region will get quite low today across our Pennsylvania and New Jersey zones, and we've had little rain now for a couple of weeks, allowing fine fuels to dry.
Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 20-30% range. Northeast to east winds will be strongest this morning, diminishing into the afternoon when the lowest RH values are anticipated. Thus, there will be no special statements issued for danger of fire spread today.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ060>062- 101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ451>455.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KESN EASTON/NEWNAM FIELD,MD | 12 sm | 29 min | ESE 06G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 37°F | 47% | 30.28 | |
| KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD | 24 sm | 19 min | E 08G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 41°F | 58% | 30.29 |
Claiborne
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT 1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT 1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT 1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM EDT 1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.8 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM EDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:09 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT 1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:31 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.4 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| -1 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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