Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
April 24, 2024 3:26 PM EDT (19:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 8:26 PM Moonset 5:57 AM |
ANZ094
No data
No data
ANZ005 315 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - Low pres will continue through the maritimes tonight as a cold front pushes offshore. High pres will build across the region Thu into Sat. A warm front will approach Sun and move well N on Mon.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBOX 241751 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm today with the passage of a cold front. Dry but cold overnight, which prompt a Freeze Watch for parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. More seasonable conditions develop for the weekend. Another chance for showers comes mid to late weekend then again late Mon or Tue.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
145 PM update...
Scattered convective showers along the cold front moving into western MA. SBCAPES 200-300 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates 8-9 C/km in western MA and this environment will advect eastward ahead of the cold front so can't rule out an isolated t-storm as these showers move east across SNE through 22z.
Shower activity will be brief, not lasting much more than an hour in any location, but a brief downpour and small hail is possible.
Previous discussion...
Scattered light showers ahead of a robust mid level trough are moving through SNE. These showers will exit by this afternoon then will have to watch for development of scattered convective showers along the cold front this afternoon. Partial sunshine expected to develop this afternoon ahead of the front and surface heating below steepening mid level lapse rates will help to contribute to marginal instability with CAPES up to a few hundred J/kg. This will help fuel scattered convective showers along and just ahead of the cold front and can't rule out an isolated t-storm or 2. Small hail is possible given steepening mid level lapse rates assocd with the cold pool aloft. Timing of the convection will be 18-20z in the interior and 20-22z across RI and SE MA, possibly a bit later over Cape Cod.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Highlights:
* Freeze Watch expanded for Wednesday night, and then potential elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday.
As advertised, the overnight hours will be rather cold. Clouds clear quickly as the cold front races off shore and PWATs fall. The wind direction shifts, west to north, advecting an unseasonably cold air mass over southern New England.
925mb temperatures range between -3C and -5C. As mentioned, the previous forecaster brought up a good point, there are two ways we can achieve unseasonably low overnight temperatures - one being traditional radiational cooling - second is to mix down the colder air aloft. Right now, most of the night looks to have a well mixed boundary layer with steady north wind. This will transport those colder temperatures aloft to the surface. By the end of the night, we could decouple for the last two or three hours - with clear sky cover this will help maintain and or lower the temperatures further. Overnight lows are in the low and middle 20s across northern Massachusetts, southern coast could have overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For temperatures, did us a blend of the forecast and the BC of the MAV. Cape Cod and Islands is tough, do think the SST will help to keep above freezing, but could be close. Just last night, MVY saw the temperature freefall into the upper 20s with calm wind and clear sky. During this update we expanded the Freeze Watch to southern Rhode Island and south coast of Massachusetts. We did omit the islands and Cape Cod. Day crew will need to evaluate guidance and decide whether to go with a freeze warning or frost advisory in the area where the frost/freeze program is active.
Heading into Thursday we are dry but noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the middle 50s. A dry air mass settles over the region thanks to 1030mb high moving south out of Canada. Winds are northwest and less than 10 mph, possibly becoming more light and variable by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns because of very low values of RH due to low dewpoint temperatures in the teens. Minimum values of RH are in the upper teens to upper 20s away from the coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points...
* Dry weather through Saturday.
* Chance of showers Saturday night then again around Tuesday.
* Temperatures increase each day through Monday when some could see highs near 80.
Details...
Surface high pressure centered over New York Thursday night remains in control through Saturday, crossing New England on Friday.
Subsidence beneath the high and very little moisture in the column will lead to dry conditions and sunny skies each day through Saturday (though clouds will begin moving in to start the weekend).
Given the high pressure overhead winds will be light and variable.
Thus, we'll see a few nights of good radiational cooling with the typical cool spots dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. By Friday the mid level ridge axis shifts over or just east of SNE with low/mid level winds backing to the SW bringing warm advection. 850 mb temps rise from -3C on Thursday to 0C on Friday and +3C by Saturday afternoon. This will translate to highs steadily increasing each day, into the mid to upper 60s in the interior by Saturday.
Areas along the south coast will be cooler (50s) thanks to onshore flow.
The dry pattern breaks down briefly for the second half of the weekend as a passing warm front will bring not only increasing cloudcover Saturday afternoon but the chance for widespread light showers Saturday night. It will be trailing behind a surface low which lifts into Canada; with little forcing and mid level ridging overhead, not expecting much out of these showers. A more substantial system looks to arrive with a shortwave on or around Tuesday. Something of note for the start of the week will be the very warm day on Monday (well into the 70s in the interior). The chance for a backdoor front to spoil things is looking less likely, though a seabreeze will likely keep those along the coast in the 60s. Meanwhile, the CT Valley may see temperature approaching 80F! The odds temps AOA 80F are between 40-50% per the EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00z...
VFR, but a brief shower or isolated t-storm possible with brief lower conditions as area of scattered showers move across SNE through 22z. SW winds shifting to NW 18-22z from W to E. Gusts to 25 kt.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR with rapid clearing. NW gusts to 25 kt along the coast, diminishing after 06z.
Thursday and Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds, with local sea breezes developing by afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
Brief convective showers possible 20-22z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing after 06z. Sea breeze develops 15-17z Thu.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Brief convective showers possible through 20z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing after 00z.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday through Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday...High Confidence.
Rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with a cold front passage later today. Cold front will bring a wind shift from southwest to west/northwest this afternoon, then becoming northerly overnight.
Wind gusts increasing 25 to 30 knots and increasing seas to over 5 feet, this lead to a Small Craft Advisory through late Thursday morning. Surface high pressure comes down from Canada with easing winds and diminishing seas for Thursday afternoon.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MAZ017-018-020-021.
RI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 251.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm today with the passage of a cold front. Dry but cold overnight, which prompt a Freeze Watch for parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. More seasonable conditions develop for the weekend. Another chance for showers comes mid to late weekend then again late Mon or Tue.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
145 PM update...
Scattered convective showers along the cold front moving into western MA. SBCAPES 200-300 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates 8-9 C/km in western MA and this environment will advect eastward ahead of the cold front so can't rule out an isolated t-storm as these showers move east across SNE through 22z.
Shower activity will be brief, not lasting much more than an hour in any location, but a brief downpour and small hail is possible.
Previous discussion...
Scattered light showers ahead of a robust mid level trough are moving through SNE. These showers will exit by this afternoon then will have to watch for development of scattered convective showers along the cold front this afternoon. Partial sunshine expected to develop this afternoon ahead of the front and surface heating below steepening mid level lapse rates will help to contribute to marginal instability with CAPES up to a few hundred J/kg. This will help fuel scattered convective showers along and just ahead of the cold front and can't rule out an isolated t-storm or 2. Small hail is possible given steepening mid level lapse rates assocd with the cold pool aloft. Timing of the convection will be 18-20z in the interior and 20-22z across RI and SE MA, possibly a bit later over Cape Cod.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Highlights:
* Freeze Watch expanded for Wednesday night, and then potential elevated fire weather concerns on Thursday.
As advertised, the overnight hours will be rather cold. Clouds clear quickly as the cold front races off shore and PWATs fall. The wind direction shifts, west to north, advecting an unseasonably cold air mass over southern New England.
925mb temperatures range between -3C and -5C. As mentioned, the previous forecaster brought up a good point, there are two ways we can achieve unseasonably low overnight temperatures - one being traditional radiational cooling - second is to mix down the colder air aloft. Right now, most of the night looks to have a well mixed boundary layer with steady north wind. This will transport those colder temperatures aloft to the surface. By the end of the night, we could decouple for the last two or three hours - with clear sky cover this will help maintain and or lower the temperatures further. Overnight lows are in the low and middle 20s across northern Massachusetts, southern coast could have overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For temperatures, did us a blend of the forecast and the BC of the MAV. Cape Cod and Islands is tough, do think the SST will help to keep above freezing, but could be close. Just last night, MVY saw the temperature freefall into the upper 20s with calm wind and clear sky. During this update we expanded the Freeze Watch to southern Rhode Island and south coast of Massachusetts. We did omit the islands and Cape Cod. Day crew will need to evaluate guidance and decide whether to go with a freeze warning or frost advisory in the area where the frost/freeze program is active.
Heading into Thursday we are dry but noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the middle 50s. A dry air mass settles over the region thanks to 1030mb high moving south out of Canada. Winds are northwest and less than 10 mph, possibly becoming more light and variable by late afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns because of very low values of RH due to low dewpoint temperatures in the teens. Minimum values of RH are in the upper teens to upper 20s away from the coast.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points...
* Dry weather through Saturday.
* Chance of showers Saturday night then again around Tuesday.
* Temperatures increase each day through Monday when some could see highs near 80.
Details...
Surface high pressure centered over New York Thursday night remains in control through Saturday, crossing New England on Friday.
Subsidence beneath the high and very little moisture in the column will lead to dry conditions and sunny skies each day through Saturday (though clouds will begin moving in to start the weekend).
Given the high pressure overhead winds will be light and variable.
Thus, we'll see a few nights of good radiational cooling with the typical cool spots dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. By Friday the mid level ridge axis shifts over or just east of SNE with low/mid level winds backing to the SW bringing warm advection. 850 mb temps rise from -3C on Thursday to 0C on Friday and +3C by Saturday afternoon. This will translate to highs steadily increasing each day, into the mid to upper 60s in the interior by Saturday.
Areas along the south coast will be cooler (50s) thanks to onshore flow.
The dry pattern breaks down briefly for the second half of the weekend as a passing warm front will bring not only increasing cloudcover Saturday afternoon but the chance for widespread light showers Saturday night. It will be trailing behind a surface low which lifts into Canada; with little forcing and mid level ridging overhead, not expecting much out of these showers. A more substantial system looks to arrive with a shortwave on or around Tuesday. Something of note for the start of the week will be the very warm day on Monday (well into the 70s in the interior). The chance for a backdoor front to spoil things is looking less likely, though a seabreeze will likely keep those along the coast in the 60s. Meanwhile, the CT Valley may see temperature approaching 80F! The odds temps AOA 80F are between 40-50% per the EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00z...
VFR, but a brief shower or isolated t-storm possible with brief lower conditions as area of scattered showers move across SNE through 22z. SW winds shifting to NW 18-22z from W to E. Gusts to 25 kt.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR with rapid clearing. NW gusts to 25 kt along the coast, diminishing after 06z.
Thursday and Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR. Light winds, with local sea breezes developing by afternoon.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
Brief convective showers possible 20-22z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing after 06z. Sea breeze develops 15-17z Thu.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Brief convective showers possible through 20z as the cold front moves through, but VFR persists. Low risk for thunder but not enough confidence to include in TAF. Wind shift to NW after FROPA with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing after 00z.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday through Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday...High Confidence.
Rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with a cold front passage later today. Cold front will bring a wind shift from southwest to west/northwest this afternoon, then becoming northerly overnight.
Wind gusts increasing 25 to 30 knots and increasing seas to over 5 feet, this lead to a Small Craft Advisory through late Thursday morning. Surface high pressure comes down from Canada with easing winds and diminishing seas for Thursday afternoon.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MAZ017-018-020-021.
RI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235- 251.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250- 254>256.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Upton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE