Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantua, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:25PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:54 PM EDT (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 131 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 131 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore this afternoon and remain positioned there through the weekend. A cold front will push south through the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantua, VA
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location: 38.84, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 251334
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
934 am edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will move offshore this afternoon. Weak
disturbances will cross the area over the weekend into early
next week. A cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. A
low pressure system may approach from the south during the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will continue to move offshore of the virginia and
north carolina coast the remainder of the day. A southerly flow
will continue, as well, leading to increasing warmth and
moisture. High temperatures will reach the 80s with perhaps a
few spots pushing 90. It will also be a little more humid as dew
points increase into the 60s. A little better deep layer
moisture return along the appalachians may result in some
isolated showers by mid- afternoon, but a cap with limited
forcing will likely limit intensity and duration.

While any showers over the mountains will likely diminish with
sunset, there could be a cluster of decaying showers thunderstorms
which approaches from the ohio valley overnight. Even if the
showers hold together, the trajectory around the ridge may make
them more likely to move toward pennsylvania than our cwa.

Elsewhere, it will remain dry and a bit more muggy, as lows only
drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The weekend will likely be unsettled with potential for
thunderstorms with heavy rain, but will not be a complete
washout. Moisture will increase further, with dew points pushing
into the 70s and high temperatures remaining in the 80s.

Precipitable water values will also increase to around 1.75".

Combined, moderate instability will likely develop by the
afternoon hours as a subtle disturbance approaches from the
southwest. Given deep layer shear generally less than 25 kt,
storms aren't expected to be especially organized or widespread
at any one moment, but many areas will see a storm at some point
during the afternoon or evening. The main threat will be
locally heavy rain as storm motions may be around 20 mph or
less. While storms should generally trend downward after sunset,
there will be potential for additional vorticity maxima to
cross overnight with the threat for a few showers or perhaps a
storm.

The set-up doesn't change much for Sunday, although the ridge
may be suppressed a little as a trough moves across the great
lakes. This system may send a back door cold front to the
south, although current projections keep it north of the area.

Coverage of thunderstorms will likely become numerous again
during peak heating, though some models show an early start due
to forcing from the northern system. Locally heavy rain will
again be the biggest threat. Given antecedent conditions which
are still wet, the could be potential for isolated flooding
issues either day. Don't have a handle at the moment if one day
will be favored over the other, nor any particular area, given
the expected disorganized nature of the thunderstorms.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Southerly flow will continue across our region Monday and into
Tuesday with tropical moisture being advected into our region. A
weak boundary will be lingering to our north on Monday and move
across on Tuesday. The boundary and in addition to diurnal
heating will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop in
the afternoon evening hours both days.

A high pressure system will be centered over the northeast u.S. On
Wednesday and move offshore on Thursday. Flow will become easterly
on Wednesday and then turning more southerly on Thursday. At the
same time a low pressure system will be to our southwest centered
over the gulf coast states. Some guidance bring this low into the
mid-atlantic and other keeps it tracking east over the southeast
u.S. This could mean the difference between a dry or wetter second
half of the work week as it could bring additional tropical moisture
to our region... Therefore additional showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr through tonight as high pressure continues to move
offshore. Will withhold mentioning any fog for tonight since
cloud cover should begin increasing. Southerly flow will remain
10 kt or less.

A warm and humid airmass combined with weak disturbances will
lead to the potential of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday, favored during the afternoon and early evening. Impacts
will likely be brief, with heavy rain the main threat. Fog could
occur overnight in locations that receive rain if skies clear.

Warm and moist air Monday into Wednesday will allow
for additional showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon evening hours which brings the possibility of sub-vfr
periods.

Marine
High pressure will move offshore this afternoon, with southerly
winds developing. Winds should stay in the 10-15 kt range
during the day. Have issued a small craft advisory for tonight
for the wider waters of the midday where increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will have enough fetch to mix down.

Winds may also be marginal on Saturday, but am uncertain enough
not to continue the advisory for now. The larger threat may come
from thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Sub-sca
conditions are expected on Sunday too, though showers and
thunderstorms will become likely again during the afternoon and
evening.

Winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria Monday into Wednesday, therefore not anticipating an
advisory for this period.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels remain slightly elevated at washington dc, though
trends in the anomalies suggest minor flooding will be a low
threat. It will be close for the next several cycles though. No
coastal flooding issues are expected elsewhere.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Saturday for anz533-534-543.

Synopsis... Ads klw
near term... Ads klw
short term... Ads klw
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr klw
marine... Imr klw
tides coastal flooding... Ads klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 12 mi84 min S 8.9 G 14 81°F 71°F1015.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi144 min SSW 5.1 80°F 1017 hPa61°F
NCDV2 38 mi84 min SSW 8.9 G 14 82°F 79°F1015.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 42 mi84 min 82°F 1015.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi114 min S 14 G 16 73°F 68°F1017.2 hPa (-2.2)67°F
44063 - Annapolis 44 mi74 min S 12 G 14 74°F 1016.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi84 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 85°F 72°F1014.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi84 min SW 9.9 G 12 82°F 1015.2 hPa
CPVM2 47 mi84 min 75°F 66°F
FSNM2 47 mi84 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 83°F 1015.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi74 min S 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi2 hrsS 1110.00 miFair83°F63°F51%1016.5 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA12 mi62 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F64°F51%1015.6 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA13 mi62 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds84°F59°F43%1015.1 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi58 minSW 610.00 miFair85°F66°F55%1016.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi77 minSSE 810.00 miFair84°F61°F47%1015.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi58 minSSW 1010.00 miFair84°F61°F46%1016 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA23 mi58 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F57%1016 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD23 mi58 minVar 410.00 miFair86°F61°F43%1018.3 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi59 minSW 810.00 miFair88°F62°F43%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3SE4S6S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW3S3S8S11S7
1 day agoNW6
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N9
G18
NW10NW9NW10
G16
NW8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW5N3NW5CalmN4E3
2 days agoSE6S5SE3CalmSE4CalmCalmS5S3S4CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7N5NW7NW8NW12
G20
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:32 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.411.92.73.23.43.22.72.11.50.90.40.20.61.32.12.73.13.12.72.11.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:33 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.311.92.63.23.53.32.82.11.50.90.40.20.51.32.12.73.13.12.72.11.50.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.