Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Galesville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:47 AM EST (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 637 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of sprinkles this morning. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move east of the waters today. High pressure will briefly build in tonight before a more potent cold front will move through the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters for the remainder of the work week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Galesville, MD
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location: 38.85, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200900
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
400 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will push east of the area today. High
pressure will nudge into the area tonight, before a strong cold
front crosses the region by Wednesday night. High pressure of
canadian origin will build to our north for the remainder of the
work week before another low pressure system approaches the
area over the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A weak cold front bisects the area this morning, with a surface low
near southeast pennsylvania. Light showers sprinkles are on their
way out of northern portions of the cwa, although some guidance
indicates a few showers may form near southern maryland after dawn.

Northwest flow will become established behind the front, ushering in
cooler air compared to Monday, along with gusty winds of 20-30 mph.

Clouds will show a decreasing trend east of the mountains, though
some light upslope precipitation along the allegheny front will be
possible most of the day as a shortwave trough crosses the area. Any
snow amounts will be light though. Expect high temperatures to range
from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
High pressure will nudge in from the west tonight. The weak pressure
gradient and mostly clear skies will result in lows dropping below
freezing, except holding just above in the city centers and near the
bay.

Low pressure passing from the great lakes to maine will drag a cold
front southward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Convergence forcing
and moisture along the front will be limited, so will forecast dry
weather except along the allegheny front where some light snow
showers will be possible. The bigger story will be temperatures,
which will take a noticeable drop behind the front as arctic high
pressure builds in. After highs reach the 40s to near 50 ahead of
the front on Wednesday, lows will tumble into the 20s to near 30
Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving will be dry as the surface high builds to the eastern
conus, but the region will experience the coldest air so far this
season. Highs will only be in the 30s for most areas, with lows
Thursday night dropping into the teens for many.

Long term Friday through Monday
Continued below normal temperatures on Friday as high pressure will
remain centered just to our north. High temperatures will struggle
to make it out of the 30s across a majority of the region, as
conditions remaining dry. The high will shift off the coast by
Friday night, allowing a light return flow to develop over the area.

Low pressure will approach the region from the southwest late Friday
night and early Saturday morning with precipitation starting to
overspread the area. Temperatures are expected to remain at or below
freezing for a good portion of the area through the early morning
hours on Saturday, which would have implications on p-type. Model
guidance continues to trend slower with the onset of
precipitation, with Saturday morning now favored. If this trend
continues, the likelihood of more rain than wintry precip would
increase. However, with the potential for a cold air damming
situation west of the blue ridge, particularly over the
shenandoah valley and central va piedmont, a significant chance
for wintry weather remains a concern. If travelling after the
thanksgiving holiday Friday night and early Saturday, keep tabs
on the forecast for the latest information.

Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing later Saturday
morning with all areas transitioning to rain as low pressure near or
just south of the area. This system will bring with it plentiful
moisture, so instances of flooding is not out of the question with
saturated soils. The unsettled weather will persist into Saturday
night before the low moves offshore and precipitation winds down.

Lows Saturday night will remain above freezing in the middle 30s to
lower 40s. The low will push off to our east as high pressure builds
over the region on Sunday with drier conditions and near normal
temperatures.

Low pressure is progged to approach from the mississippi valley late
Sunday night into Monday, with some timing strength discrepancies
existing between global models. With the low passing to our west
northwest, we will stay in the warm sector, thus will carry middle
of the road chance pops to kick off the workweek. Near normal
temperatures expected Monday and Monday night, highs in the 40s 50s
and lows in the 30s to near 40.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
A weak cold front is moving through the area this morning. A few
inconsequential showers sprinkles will exit the baltimore area
before daybreak. Some light fog developed before cloud cover took
over, so this may persist until mixing improves after sunrise. MVFR
cigs may try to sneak into mrb for a few hours this morning. Skies
may be broken at times today but should beVFR. Northwest winds will
gust 20-25 kt after 15z.

A dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon, which may
bring another round of 20-25 kt northwesterly wind gusts. Otherwise,
no major weather-makers are expected through Thursday night, with
vfr conditions prevailing.

Vfr conditions on Friday as high pressure centered just north of the
terminals shifts offshore Friday night, with light winds turning
southerly. Conditions likely deteriorate belowVFR early Saturday
morning as low pressure approaches the terminals from the southwest.

Precipitation Saturday morning will likely contain a wintry element
with a mix of precip types, with cho iad mrb seeing the highest
likelihood given near freezing temperatures. MVFR ifr conditions
likely through Saturday night as the low moves across the terminal
with low CIGS vis in light to moderate rain. Winds will be easterly
and at or below 10 knots on Saturday.

Marine
A cold front will push through the waters early this morning.

Northwest winds will increase to small craft advisory levels (gusts
20-25 kt) by late morning. The SCA continues into tonight for most
waters. A brief lull may be realized late tonight into Wednesday
morning over the waters as high pressure noses in. However another
cold front is expected to sweep through the waters late Wednesday
into Wednesday night, which will bring a return to SCA conditions.

Sca conditions may persist into Thursday before diminishing late in
the day as high pressure builds in.

Sub SCA conditions forecast Friday and Friday night as high pressure
to the north shifts offshore and winds turning southerly, albeit
light. Low pressure will approach the waters from the southwest on
Saturday, increasing the gradient and chances of SCA gusts into
Saturday night.

Climate
Unseasonably cold weather is looking increasingly likely to
briefly take hold of the region on thanksgiving. Daytime
temperatures are likely to stay in the 30s, and it could be the
coldest thanksgiving in over 20 years, depending on the readings
at midnight. Here are the benchmark readings to compare this
thanksgiving to:
washington dc area
year high elapsed
2017 47 1 year
2013 40 5 years
2000 38 18 years
1996 35 22 years
1930 30 88 years
the high has not been lower than 30 on thanksgiving since
official temperature record keeping began in 1872.

Baltimore md area
year high elapsed
2017 44 1 year
2013 38 5 years
2000 37 18 years
1996 33 22 years
1930 31 88 years
the high has not been lower than 31 on thanksgiving since
official temperature record keeping began in 1872.

Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore setting
the annual record already. Here are the current rankings for
wettest year on record (through november 18th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 5 am est
Wednesday for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory from 10 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
anz530>532-538>540.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm to 6 pm est Wednesday for
anz533>537-541>543.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est this
evening for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Bkf
aviation... Ads bkf
marine... Ads bkf
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 6 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 50°F1012.6 hPa (+0.3)48°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 10 mi48 min 48°F 1011.4 hPa (+0.5)
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi30 min 49°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 11 mi138 min SE 4.1 45°F 1012 hPa45°F
CPVM2 13 mi48 min 49°F 49°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 21 mi38 min 51°F 1012.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi48 min Calm G 1 47°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.4)
FSNM2 25 mi48 min W 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 1011.7 hPa (+0.9)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 48°F 46°F1012.9 hPa (+0.9)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 29 mi48 min SSE 1 G 1.9 47°F 47°F1012.1 hPa (+0.5)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi48 min Calm G 1 47°F 50°F1011.6 hPa (+0.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 31 mi48 min 49°F 49°F1012 hPa (+0.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi48 min W 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 1012.7 hPa (+0.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi48 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 51°F 53°F1012 hPa (+0.8)
NCDV2 45 mi48 min Calm G 1 49°F 49°F1011.7 hPa (+1.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD9 mi1.9 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F90%1011.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi68 minW 37.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1011.8 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD18 mi1.9 hrsS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F43°F94%1012.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi66 minN 04.00 miOvercast43°F41°F93%1012.5 hPa
College Park Airport, MD23 mi66 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F42°F95%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE8SE3CalmSE6S3S4S7S6S6SW6W6W5SW4S5W5
1 day agoCalmCalmSE5SE8SE5SE5S9S4S9S8S6SE4SE4SE3S5S6S6S5S6S6S4S6S6S5
2 days agoNW7NW8NW9NW13NW10NW8W3NW4W3NW6NW4NW3NW3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shady Side, West River, Maryland
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Shady Side
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:43 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:36 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.90.70.50.30.100.10.20.40.70.91.11.110.90.70.50.40.30.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     0.54 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:06 PM EST     1.02 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.20.20.60.910.90.70.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.