Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shady Side, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:45PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:31 AM EST (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 336 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Surface high pressure will reside over new england through Thursday as a weak boundary lingers just south of the waters. Low pressure over the deep south will approach the waters from the southwest late Friday into Saturday, with unsettled weather potentially persisting into Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely Friday night and into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shady Side, MD
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location: 38.86, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 120923
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
423 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will linger over the region through Thursday
night. A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the
end of the week bringing widespread rain and potential for
flooding.

Near term through tonight
Scattered to broken clouds are being observed along the
northern tier of the CWA this morning as a shortwave trough
slides eastward through southern pennsylvania. At the surface, a
weak frontal boundary is making its way southward from the
mason dixon line, helping stir winds up a bit. This in
combination with the added cloud cover, there has been quite the
spread in temperatures over the area early this morning. To the
north where more clouds are prevalent, temperatures have been
holding in the mid to upper 30s, while locations in the
shenandoah valley and northern virginia where we have decoupled,
temperatures are solidly in the teens. Much like last night,
areas that saw snow melt yesterday, be cautions of patchy ice
spots when heading out this morning.

The aforementioned shortwave trough axis will move off the mid
atlantic coastline this morning as mid to upper level ridging
builds overhead, keeping conditions dry today. Mid to high level
clouds will be more evident today as the next surface and upper
low nears the great lakes and additional shortwave energy
tracks overhead. The weak surface boundary will likely stall out
over the region, but with a lack of moisture and near non-
existent forcing, this boundary will be of little consequence to
our weather. High temperatures today will be similar to
yesterday, topping out in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Clouds continue to increase tonight as warm air advection
improves aloft and the upper low tracks across northern pa and
southern ny. The best forcing and likelihood of precipitation
will reside to our north across pa, but the increase warm air
advection may result in light wintry precipitation over western
maryland and the allegheny front. Moisture again will be very
limited, with just a few hundredths expected over the upslope
areas, but light freezing drizzle snow will be possible. Cloud
cover will maintain temperatures overnight in the upper 20s to
lower 30s for much of the area.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
The upper low will slide eastward into southern new england on
Thursday with mid to upper ridging again building overhead, with
dry conditions forecast after any light precipitation comes to
an end early Thursday morning. Temperatures a touch warm on
Thursday in the low to middle 40s, with a mix of Sun and clouds
expected.

Skies will trend mostly cloudy by Thursday evening as the next
system approaches the tennessee valley. Models continue to trend
with precipitation holding off until later Friday morning and
into the afternoon. Any precipitation that is able to make it
into the highlands and southern shenandoah valley early Friday
morning could be in the form of freezing rain with cold air
stubbornly locked in at the surface. If trends continue later,
this threat may not even materialize as temperatures will favor
above freezing. As temperatures do rise above freezing Friday
morning, rain will fills in over the area from southwest to
northeast during the afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate
to heavy rain is expected to fall Friday night as low pressure
nears the carolinas. Rainfall amounts on the order of a half
inch to one inch will be possible by daybreak Saturday. This
combined with the snow melt may result in incidents of flooding.

Additionally, with this rainfall, the yearly rainfall record
for washington dc will likely fall Friday night, as only 0.55
inches is needed to tie the current record (see climate section
below). Highs on Friday will range in the 40s to lower 50s, with
lows Friday night seasonably warm in the upper 30s to middle
40s.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
A large and complex area of low pressure will linger over the
region through the weekend before exiting by early next week.

However, we do not expect a washout, and with temperatures
rising slightly above normal, it could feel a bit more
comfortable in some regards. Early Saturday, the heaviest rain
with the initial wave of low pressure should be exiting the
region, though some may linger in the morning. After that,
however, we will remain cloudy with a risk of showers as the
upper level system will still need to clear the region. There
are indications a secondary low pressure system will develop as
the upper low approaches, which could cause showers to persist
through the day Sunday. Temperatures will remain mild, with 40s
and even some 50s common, so do not expect significant wintry
weather, though the highest elevations could see a little wet
snow.

Gfs and ECMWF both show a cold front crossing southeastward
through the region on Monday as the weekend system finally moves
out. It is fairly moisture starved, so the main precip threat
would be some upslope rain snow showers. Of note is a
significant air mass difference between the guidance, with the
ecmwf showing little cold air behind the front, while the gfs
shows a brief shot of below normal temperatures. However, even
the GFS is brief with it, and temps likely return to normal or
even slightly above normal later next week as high pressure of
pacific origin builds across the region.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions forecast through Thursday night as high pressure
will reside to the north and south of the terminals and
predominately dry conditions forecast. Exception would be at mrb
where light wintry precipitation will be possible tonight into
early Thursday morning, but confidence in occurrence, and flight
restrictions, is low. SubVFR conditions become increasingly
likely Friday and Friday night as low pressure nears the
terminals from the south with widespread rain expected.

Sub-vfr conditions likely linger Saturday and perhaps even
Sunday as complex low pressure system slowly lumbers through the
region. Showers are likely and reduced CIGS vis are possible,
perhaps even ifr at times. Conditions will likely start to
improve late Sunday.

Marine
Marginal SCA conditions possible early this morning over the
lower chesapeake bay and tidal potomac as a weak frontal
boundary crosses the waters. Sub SCA conditions will likely
persist through much of Friday before the gradient increases
late Friday afternoon and Friday night as low pressure nears
from the south. SCA conditions likely Friday night into Saturday
as a result.

Winds will diminish substantially Saturday and Sunday despite
low pressure lingering over the region. Showers and reduced
visiblity will continue to be a concern, however.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 11th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am est this morning for anz534-
537-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi32 min W 8 G 8 38°F 41°F1021.6 hPa (+2.0)22°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 9 mi32 min 37°F 1020.4 hPa (+2.1)
CPVM2 10 mi32 min 38°F 19°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi122 min Calm 27°F 1020 hPa26°F
FSNM2 25 mi38 min W 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 1020.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi32 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 1020.7 hPa (+2.2)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi32 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 38°F 40°F1020.9 hPa (+2.3)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 29 mi38 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 45°F1020.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi38 min 39°F 39°F1020.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi32 min S 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 40°F1021.4 hPa (+2.1)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 32 mi32 min NW 8 G 13 39°F 1021.5 hPa (+1.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi32 min N 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 42°F1020.9 hPa (+1.9)
NCDV2 48 mi38 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 25°F 41°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi38 minW 310.00 miOvercast39°F19°F46%1020.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi52 minW 710.00 miOvercast37°F24°F60%1020.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD21 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1021.7 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD22 mi36 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F20°F60%1021.3 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD23 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F28°F93%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmNW4NW6NW10W6W3W3CalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW6NW5CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3
1 day agoN11N9N8N12N8
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N8N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4NE6NE6NE6NE9NE6NE6N6N6N7N8N8N7N10N9N9N9N5N5N6N7N5N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for Shady Side, West River, Maryland
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Shady Side
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:00 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:48 AM EST     0.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:18 PM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.20.10.20.30.40.60.60.50.40.20.1-0-00.10.20.50.70.9110.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:43 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:42 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.