Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayo, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:44PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 1240 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain or snow likely through the night.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters this evening. Low pressure will track along the boundary overnight before passing by to our south Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Saturday night, but low pressure will pass by to the west Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return early next week before stronger low pressure possibly impacts the waters during the middle portion of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayo, MD
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location: 38.87, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 151416
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
916 am est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through the area this afternoon into this
evening. Low pressure will track along the boundary, passing by
to our south Saturday. High pressure will briefly build to our
north Sunday. Weak low pressure will pass through Sunday night.

High pressure will build to our north early next week. Stronger
low pressure may impact the area during the middle portion of
next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A cold front will slowly move into the potomac highlands by late
this afternoon and a southerly flow ahead of this system will
allow for unusually warm conditions for this time of year. Do
feel that there will be enough breaks of sunshine late this
morning through the midday hours behind a weak disturbance for
max temps to reach well into the 60s for many locations. Did
tweak MAX temps up a couple degrees based on the anticipation of
some sunshine and a deep mixing layer.

Moisture associated with the front should be scant, and it should be
wrung out by the mountains. There is a small chance of a
shower across the potomac highlands into eastern west virginia
and northern maryland. Perhaps a shower or two could reach the
washington and baltimore metropolitan areas by days end.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
The cold front will settle south of the area tonight, far enough to
push deep moisture to the south but not far enough to clear skies...

even partially. Cold advection after midnight should allow temps
northwest of baltimore-washington-harrisonburg to drop below
freezing.

A weak wave of low pressure will ride along this boundary Saturday.

Upper level support (namely, 500 mb positive vorticity advection and
the left front quadrant of the upper level jet) will be passing
decidedly south of the area. Consequently, have pushed pops into
virginia... Leaving northern maryland with just a chance of precip.

In addition, temperatures will only be marginally cold. That means
there could be a swath south of luray-washington dc-annapolis where
snow is likely in the morning before it mixes with rain. Given this
scenario, accumulations would be less than an inch. (ecmwf has
shunted precip even further to the south than this forecast.)
any precip would clear out by sundown.

High pressure builds from the great lakes to the northeast new
england Saturday night and Sunday. This will supply cold air...

briefly. (Saturday night's lows will be in the 20s.) but during
Saturday night the jet stream shifts north. Thus, the next shortwave
passes north of the area Sunday, allowing for strong warm advection.

Therefore any associated precipitation would only be marginally cold
enough for snow. Will be forecasting a rain snow mix Sunday
afternoon-evening with chance pops.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Canadian high pressure will be spilling into the upper midwest on
Monday as low pressure off the mid atlantic coast pushes eastward
into the atlantic, and a cold front sinks south and east of our
area. Upslope showers possible on Monday as northwesterly flow and
caa increases, with the remainder of the CWA remaining mainly dry.

High pressure will continue to build to our north and west through
Tuesday, with continued dry conditions and slightly below normal
temperatures.

Global guidance in fairly decent agreement with a large area of low
pressure approaching from the southern states Tuesday night, tapping
into the gulf of mexico, bringing with it plentiful moisture as it
tracks up the appalachians. Precipitation will overspread the area
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, as strong WAA aloft
commences. Snow looks to be the favored ptype initially,
transitioning to a mix during the day on Wednesday, and over to rain
for portions of the area as the warmer air wins out. Low level cold
air may hang on across the northern tier of the cwa, allowing some
level of wintry precipitation to persist into Wednesday night. High
uncertainty remains with this day 5 & 6 forecast, as ptype will be
dependent upon the strength of the low level cold air, as well as
the placement and strength of the high to our north. An additional
wave of precipitation and potential coastal low development on
Thursday and into Thursday night will keep things unsettled, but
warmer temperatures will favor rain as the main ptype. Colder air
across northern md and WV may yield mix precip once again Thursday
night.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions will prevail for the current TAF period.

South southwest winds will be the primary concern today, with some
20-25 kt gusts.

Low pressure will pass south of the terminals Saturday. Some light
precip possible, especially at cho, taking the form of rain or snow.

Believe that mrb bwi mtn should be dry (at worst a 30% chance at
precip). Temperatures will be above freezing throughout the day, and
any accumulations... Most likely at cho... Would be minimal. If
flight restrictions occur cho most at risk, but even there its
questionable.

Another disturbance will cross the terminals Sunday afternoon-
evening. Again, precip would be light in nature with temperatures
only marginally cold. Thus, a rain snow mix most likely.

Vfr conditions expected Monday through Tuesday as canadian high
pressure builds north and west of the terminals. Winds will be gusty
out of the northwest on Monday, subsiding Monday night. A large area
of low pressure to our south will allow precip to encroach on the
terminals late Tuesday night, with a rain snow mix possible, and sub
vfr potential.

Marine
South to southwest winds will continue ahead of a cold front
today. A small craft advisory is in effect for all of the
waters.

A cold front will cross the waters this evening, and settle just
south of the waters tonight. The frontal position likely won't be
far enough to the south to allow for the pressure surge to reach the
waters. Thus, will be keeping forecast winds below SCA conditions
tonight.

A couple of disturbances will cross the area this weekend. Both will
bring mixed precip chances (rain snow) but neither will allow deep
mixing or produce a good pressure gradient.

Sca conditions likely on Monday as low pressure exits to our east
and gusty northwest breezes takes hold. Winds expected to abate
Monday night, and persist as such through Tuesday night as high
pressure builds north of the waters, thus sub SCA conditions
expected.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Bjl hts
short term... Hts
long term... Bkf
aviation... Bjl bkf hts
marine... Bjl bkf hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi56 min SSE 15 G 17 49°F 38°F1005.3 hPa (-2.3)39°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi56 min 63°F 1003.9 hPa (-2.7)
CPVM2 10 mi56 min 47°F 39°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 14 mi146 min SW 8.9 61°F 1006 hPa37°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi56 min SSW 12 G 15 64°F 1003.3 hPa (-3.4)
FSNM2 24 mi62 min SSW 9.9 G 18 64°F 1003.1 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 27 mi56 min S 8.9 G 14 60°F 39°F1004.3 hPa (-3.0)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi62 min SW 6 G 13 64°F 38°F1003 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi62 min 61°F 39°F1005.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 29 mi62 min S 12 G 16 59°F 41°F1004.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 33 mi56 min SSW 15 G 20 60°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 38 mi56 min SW 18 G 24 59°F 41°F1005.4 hPa (-3.0)
NCDV2 48 mi56 min SW 11 G 17

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi63 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds67°F37°F33%1004.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD10 mi77 minS 12 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F39°F42%1005.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi2 hrsSSW 17 G 2310.00 miFair64°F38°F40%1005.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi67 minSSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F42°F49%1006.4 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi75 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miFair64°F37°F37%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW10NW14
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NW8NW4NW6W4W4--W8SW7W10SW5SW5S5CalmCalmCalmW4W5SW6W8SW7
2 days agoE9E10NE4NW3NW6CalmNW3CalmS3W3W6SW9W8W6SW5SW5SW5SW4SW6W11W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:06 AM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:12 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.30.1-0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.30.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.20.100.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:23 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EST     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.60.9110.80.50.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.