Monday, June17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayo, MD

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:35PM Monday June 17, 2019 7:44 AM EDT (11:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 4:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 736 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning, then numerous showers and scattered tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will be stalled out across the area through the middle of the week. It will then cross the region late Thursday or early Friday, with high pressure building over the waters at the end of the week. Small craft advisories may be necessary Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayo, MD
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location: 38.87, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170756
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
356 am edt Mon jun 17 2019

Synopsis
A front will be stalled near the area today and remain in the
mid-atlantic region through much of the upcoming week. This will
lead to a prolonged period of unsettled weather. The front
should finally push southeast of the region Friday, with a
period of drier and less humid weather likely for week's end and
the start of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Sfc front currently extends from east to west from near nyc
west across nj and pa into oh and remains north of the pa
turnpike. Sfc obs and mslp fields indicate the sfc high over the
eastern great lks is very weak (~ 1016 mb) suggesting this
front will start slowing down significantly with little
southward progress over the next couple of days. The mid-level
flow is also becoming parallel to the sfc front which would
suggest potential for training convection. With shear and storm
motion weakening today, the risk of flash flooding will be
increasing over the next few days. Guidance indicate ample cape
higher than yesterday, but has trended lower in QPF likely due
to weaker forcing. Nonetheless, there is enough ingredients
conducive to flash flooding and spread in deterministic and
ensemble QPF to issue a flash flood watch. The greatest risk of
flash flooding is alond the mason dixon line but could extend
far enough south into the highly urbanized areas.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Nothing really is expected to change over the next 72 hrs.

Moisture and instability will be more than adequate and with
front nearby to support daily afternoon and evening risk of
convection. With the mean flow weakening, cells will be slower
to move and pose additional risk of flash flooding. Details with
summer time convection are typical uncertain especially in weak
forcing.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Active pattern will continue Thursday as a stronger wave of low
pressure, spurned on by a more potent shortwave, moves eastward
and northeastward along the stalled front. This will initially
allow the front to lift northward, perhaps bringing some
relatively quiet (albeit warmer and more humid) weather to the
region for a time Thursday before the approaching cold front
brings another round of showers and t-storms with both a heavy
rain and possibly a severe threat late Thursday into Thursday
night.

Guidance seems to be coalescing around the idea of this wave
passing faster and allowing canadian high pressure to build in
on Friday. This would result in slight cooling and significant
humidity reduction on Friday, along with much less of a chance
of any rain.

The front doesn't get too far south, however, and starts to make
its way back north as another disturbance looks to approach from
the west on Saturday. Right now, it still looks like most of the
forecast area will stay fairly dry, but humidity may increase
somewhat and there will likely be more risk of storms in our
southwestern zones (west-central va and eastern wv), closer to
the front.

Front lifts back further north on Sunday as the aforementioned
wave moves through, so the risk of showers and t-storms looks to
become more widespread by then. Warm and humid weather will
otherwise prevail.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Nmrs showers and sct t-storms this afternoon and this evening,
weakening late. Risk of storms continues through tue. Brief ifr
conditions possible in any heavy showers t-storms.

Vfr overall Thursday and Friday, though patchy early morning fog
is possible especially at cho mrb, while scattered showers and
t-storms during the afternoon and evening hours (mainly
Thursday) may also result in reduced CIGS vis. The risk of
storms looks significantly lower on Friday.

Marine
Winds should remain below SCA outside of t-storms. Winds and
waves higher near thunderstorms. Smws may be required especially
upper potomac and north of the bay bridge.

Winds will be increasing ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday, and small craft advisories may be needed. Special
marine warnings may also be necessary as the front brings
another round of showers and t-storms to the waters. By Friday,
the risk of showers and t-storms should decrease behind the
front, but winds may continue at small craft levels as
cooler drier air moves in.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for dcz001.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-501>508.

Va... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for vaz028-031-053-054-505-506.

Wv... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for wvz051>053-501-503.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Rcm
aviation... Rcm lfr
marine... Rcm lfr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 3 mi44 min Calm G 1 75°F 72°F1015.5 hPa (+2.1)70°F
44063 - Annapolis 7 mi44 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 75°F 73°F1014.7 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair79°F68°F69%1014.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD10 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1014.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair72°F67°F87%1014.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi54 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1015.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi62 minN 07.00 miFair68°F66°F94%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland
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Thomas Point Shoal Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.81.11.41.61.61.51.310.80.50.40.40.50.60.70.80.90.80.70.50.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:31 PM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.400.50.91.21.31.10.60.1-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.10.30.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.