Wednesday, October18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Denton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:22PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 5:08PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 731 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 731 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A weak front will pass by to the north Thursday night. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Friday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Denton, MD
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location: 38.88, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 182241
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
641 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
630 pm estf: minor changes to the evening temps and dewpoints,
otrw no changes.

High pressure remains over the mid-atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the ohio valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE pa NW nj and the nj pine barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban i-95 cities and along the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure sinks southward toward the southeast u.S. On Thursday.

Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer mav guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
ne pa-nw nj).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night thru Monday... High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday... A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ERN part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12z na models are showing qpf
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period mon_wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

GenerallyVFR through Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may
develop at the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05z-11z
Thursday which could result in a brief period of MVFR visibility.

Confidence in fog development was too low to mention in 18z
tafs except at miv.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing too 8-15 kt in the


thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

S-sw winds 5-10 kt will continue tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal atlantic waters during
the afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20
kt off the coast of ocean and monmouth counties via ambrose jet
late in the day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor
mixing profiles should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the
surface. Accordingly, capped gusts below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the delaware bay... Mostly a SE swell of 9 or 10 seconds.


thu night... Near SCA winds across the NRN nj coastal waters thu
evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.

Friday thru Sunday... Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
fair weather.

**top 5 warmest october on record for phl and abe appears likely
and its virtually certain a top 10 warmest october for all of
our forecast area**
todays MAX min plus the mount holly 330 pm fcst for the next 7
days, adding on day8-11 from ftprha GFS 2m MAX min temps and
then normal the last 3 days of the month results in the

Phl 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the october 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs phl for a tie as #2 warmest october on

1. 64.5 2007
2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)
3. 62.7 1947
to drop out of the top 10 warmest the phl avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).

Based on the 12z 18 ensembles both GEFS naefs and ecefs... This
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach
top 5 is likely.

Abe 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
ties for #2.

1. 60.8 2007
2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017?
3. 59.3 1947
4. 58.8 1971
for allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless something
very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the last 3 days
of the month.

It should be pointed out that the d8-14 fcst from the climate
prediction center (cpc) .. Is for above normal temperatures for
the last week of the month. We are on the edge of the transition
to cold that will be quite noticeable in the nations midsection
next week. Uphill (southwest flow at 500mb and the trough axis
constantly appalachians or west) makes it difficult for cold
air to cross the mountains into our area.

Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

the last two years in phl 10 15-10 17 17 is the warmest in the
period of record... Averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!
ditto ilg... Averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag klein 640
short term... Klein
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag klein o'hara 640
marine... Drag klein o'hara 640

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 25 mi148 min SSW 2.9 69°F 1026 hPa45°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi40 min 58°F 67°F1027.3 hPa
CPVM2 31 mi40 min 67°F 48°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi58 min SSW 13 G 14 66°F 68°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi40 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 61°F 66°F1026.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi28 min S 9.7 G 9.7 65°F 1025.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi28 min SSW 12 G 12 66°F 1026.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi40 min 63°F 1025.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi40 min WSW 5.1 G 6 65°F 68°F1025.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi28 min S 9.7 G 12 65°F 1022.8 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 38 mi40 min S 4.1 G 5.1 61°F 65°F1026.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi40 min SSW 8 G 9.9 1026.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi40 min S 8 G 8.9 65°F 1025.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi40 min SSW 7 G 8.9 62°F 1027.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi40 min Calm G 1 1026.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi40 min S 8 G 8.9 62°F 64°F1026.9 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 47 mi28 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 1026 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi40 min SSE 5.1 G 6 63°F 65°F1026 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi148 min S 4.1 68°F 1026 hPa46°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi40 min SSW 4.1 G 7 64°F 71°F1025.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi40 min 60°F 67°F1025.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi68 minWSW 610.00 miClear61°F44°F55%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W5W6W5SW8W6SW6SW6SW6S6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N5NE8NE6NE5N4N4N3N8N8N9N7N4N4N4NW6W4W3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW8SW8SW7SW9SW9W7W5NW7N9

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:57 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.