Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Denton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:26 AM EST (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:40AMMoonset 1:15PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 331 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered flurries.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow through the day.
ANZ500 331 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will over the waters today and then offshore tonight. An arctic cold front will pass through late Tuesday and high pressure will return for Wednesday. Weak low pressure will pass through the waters Thursday and another weak low will pass by to the east Friday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Denton, MD
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location: 38.88, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 110902
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
402 am est Mon dec 11 2017

High pressure will cross to the north of the region today. A low
pressure system will cross the great lakes region tonight, dragging
a cold front through our area late tonight into Tuesday. A weak low
pressure system will cross the region on Thursday with another
system moving up the coast on Friday. A brief return to high
pressure for the start of the weekend with yet another system moving
through our area Sunday or Monday.

Near term through tonight
Vort MAX will be atop the forecast area for the next few hours as it
progresses eastward at the base of a broad longwave trough
encompassing eastern north america. Some flurries and light snow
showers have generated just downstream of the perturbation and an
attendant 250-mb jet streak in the ohio valley. The system is
severely moisture-starved, with a deep dry layer below the midlevel
moisture, so precipitation will be light. However, snow currently
occurring at the office suggests at least trace amounts are likely
with a band moving through the delaware river and eastward at this
time. Expanded slight-chance pops for snow showers southward to
cover much of nj for the next couple of hours.

Expect whatever reaches the surface will quickly move east early
this morning. Skies should rapidly clear as strong descent upstream
of the perturbation spreads across the mid-atlantic, though this
will be short-lived for the northwestern CWA as upper- and midlevel
moisture advects eastward downstream of the next system reaching the
ohio valley this evening.

Mos did reasonably well with temperatures yesterday (better than i
did), so followed suit with MAX temperatures today fairly closely.

In general, forecast continuity was below guidance, but I nudged
temperatures upward somewhat, especially given the warmer-than-
expected conditions overnight. Expect more snowmelt today. Light
westerly winds should prevail.

Short term Tuesday
Two vorticity maxima will affect the mid-atlantic tonight and
Tuesday, and a few model discrepancies continue given the very-
difficult-to-simulate interactive processes. At 00z Tuesday, a
southern-stream vort MAX will be located in vicinity of illinois,
with a digging northern-stream perturbation in ontario. With time,
the southern-stream perturbation will accelerate eastward and weaken
as it elongates meridionally in the difluent flow downstream along
the east coast. Meanwhile, the northern-stream vort MAX will pivot
eastward and acquire a negative tilt Tuesday afternoon as it noses
into the northeast.

The combined effect of this evolution should be a focus of
precipitation in two regions: the warm-air advection regime
downstream of the deepening surface low in the great lakes region
and in the cold conveyor belt in vicinity of the great lakes and
appalachians. The warm-air advection poses a couple of problems:
diagnosing surface temperatures Monday night as the isentropic lift
initiates precipitation in the northern mid-atlantic and determining
the nature of the thermal profiles during this phase of the event.

Models have trended much warmer during the past 24 hours, suggesting
that any precipitation in the urban corridor southeastward would
most likely be rain. This is especially true since the models have
also trended slower (somewhat unsurprising given the increased
amplification to the flow downstream of the perturbation), meaning
that most of the precipitation would occur near or after daybreak
for most of the cwa. Notably, the NAM remains much drier than the
gfs ecmwf, with the former keeping most precipitation north of the
philly area and the gfs ECMWF extending southward to delaware bay
and vicinity.

There looks to be a transition zone with the precipitation Monday
night that may contain a wintry mix (rain, snow, sleet, and freezing
rain all being on the table). However, amounts look light, with
enough uncertainty with the presence of precipitation, the qpf
associated with it, and the exact locations to forgo any winter
headlines at this time. Best chances look to be north of i-76 i-
476 i-195 and timing is generally after midnight Monday night to
afternoon Tuesday. Farther to the northwest, model soundings are
decidedly snow, though surface temperatures will be near freezing on
Tuesday, which may limit accumulations even in the poconos. At this
point, QPF with snow ratios around 10:1 would suggest potential for
1-3 inches in portions of carbon, monroe, and sussex (nj) counties.

Once again, this is marginal enough, far out enough, and uncertain
enough to preclude issuance of winter headlines at this time.

Temperatures will be steady or even slowly rise after Monday evening
in the warm-air advection regime. A cold front will race through the
area Tuesday afternoon, with a quick switchover to west winds that
will likely become gusty. Much colder drier air will infiltrate the
region thereafter, so highs may occur relatively early in the day
(especially in the western cwa). The southern poconos look to remain
in close enough proximity to the surface low to the north to see
some wraparound snow or snow showers Tuesday afternoon, so increased
pops in this region during this time frame. Otherwise, the dropping
temperatures and increasing winds will be the main story by the
close of daylight.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A series of low pressure systems will cross the region through the
extended period bringing repeated chances for some snow.

Tuesday night... The surface low lifts up into new england and
we should see the snow taper off as it moves further away. Some
wrap around moisture may continue to bring some snow showers to
the southern poconos through the overnight period. Winds will be
increasing across the region as there is a pretty tight
pressure gradient and strong cold air advection in the wake of
the departing low. Temperatures will feel much colder as they
fall into the teens to lower 20s. With the winds starting to
ramp up overnight we will likely see wind chills into the single
digits across much of the area.

Wednesday... Windy day ahead as the low continues to slowly move
to the northeast. Cold air will fill in across the region and
even though we will see a decent amount of Sun across the area,
highs will be cold and remain in the 20s to lower 30s. With the
winds blowing it will feel even colder as it will feel more like
it is in the single digits to teens outside.

Wednesday night... The winds will start to subside and take that
biting chill from the air. Overnight lows will drop back in to
the teens.

Thursday through Thursday night... A strong shortwave and a weak
surface low will cross the region on Thursday. This clipper
system will bring a chance for some snow showers across the
area. The cold air looks to remain in place but enough warming
may occur closer to the coast to allow for some mixing with rain
to occur.

Friday through Friday night... Some disagreement in the models
with respect to Friday and a low pressure system developing to
our south and then up the coast. Current guidance has the low
staying south and moving to the northeast but just how much
moisture will make it to our area is unknown as the proximity to
the low will be key. Warmer air will try to move in in the west
to southwest flow. Precipitation may end up being mixed across
parts of the area but uncertainty as to how much warm air can
make it in exits.

Saturday through Sunday night... High pressure will slide across
the southeastern united states on Saturday, bringing us a day
of quiet weather. The weather should remain quiet through the
day on Sunday. Temperatures look to be a bit more moderate over
the weekend as warmer air arrives. Temperatures look to be in
the 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and in the upper 30s to upper
40s on Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday... Another system will approach the
region sometime around Sunday night or Monday. Precipitation
type may be tricky as the warm air may hang around and allow for
some rain to fall.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... GenerallyVFR with CIGS around above 5000 feet. Some
flurries are possible, especially at rdg abe ttn, but no runway
accumulations are expected. Winds should be generally light from the
southwest. High confidence.

Monday...VFR with west winds 5 to 15 kts. High confidence.

Monday night... PrimarilyVFR, though conditions should deteriorate
to sub-vfr well to the north of phl with a wintry mix possible in
the southern poconos and vicinity. Timing of any precipitation looks
to be after 06z at rdg abe (though conditions may be slow to reach
sub-vfr even after precipitation begins), with southern extent a
question mark (i.E., large uncertainty regarding any precipitation
reaching ttn pne phl ilg). Winds should be light and mainly from the
south. Low confidence in CIGS vsbys and precipitation coverage;
medium confidence in winds.

Tuesday... Sub-vfr conditions possible before cold frontal passage,
especially for the philly terminals north and west. Some rain
possible in the urban corridor, transitioning to snow in the
southern poconos region. A cold front will race through the area
during the afternoon, with winds becoming west 10 to 20 kts with
higher gusts thereafter. Conditions should beVFR after frontal
passage at the TAF sites. Low confidence in CIGS vsbys precipitation
coverage frontal timing; high confidence in winds.


Tuesday night through Wednesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Gusty west to northwest winds around 15 to 25 knots with gusts
around 40 knots possible. Confidence: moderate
Thursday through Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. MVFR
or lower possible in snow showers. West to southwest winds
around 5 to 10 kts. Confidence: moderate

Winds remain near or just above advisory criteria on the atlantic
waters, so the small craft advisory was not changed with this
update. Gusts are near criteria on lower delaware bay, but given the
overall downward trend expected for the rest of tonight, decided not
to issue anything here.

Another advisory will be needed after midnight Monday night Tuesday
morning for all of the waters as south winds increase in advance of
the next storm system, but will let the current advisory play out
before issuing another one. Gusts may approach gale force on

A strong cold front will pass through the waters late in the day
Tuesday. Winds will switch to westerly and likely become gale-force
quickly thereafter. A gale watch will likely be required as the
event nears.


Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Strong west winds with
gale force gusts likely. Seas will also remain elevated around 5
to 7 feet on the ocean. Seas will start to subside Wednesday

Thursday... Small craft advisory conditions early. Winds subside
below 25 knots and conditions remain fairly quiet on the waters
through Thursday.

Friday... Small craft advisory conditions possible. West winds
will gusts around 25 knots possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Meola
aviation... Cms meola
marine... Cms meola

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 25 mi56 min WNW 5.1 34°F 1018 hPa31°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi44 min 38°F 45°F1018.3 hPa
CPVM2 31 mi38 min 40°F 27°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi38 min SE 4.1 G 7 37°F 43°F1016.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi26 min SSW 7 G 8 40°F 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi38 min 38°F 1016.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi26 min W 3.9 G 5.8 39°F 47°F1 ft1017.6 hPa (-0.4)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi38 min W 9.9 G 13 36°F 47°F1017.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 38 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 6 35°F 45°F1017.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi44 min WNW 19 G 23 39°F 1017.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi38 min WSW 6 G 8 38°F 1017 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi38 min W 6 G 8 37°F 1016.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi38 min WNW 5.1 G 7 37°F 1017.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi44 min S 5.1 G 6 35°F 43°F1017.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi56 min S 1.9 35°F 1017 hPa29°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi38 min WNW 15 G 20 39°F 43°F1016.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi38 min W 13 G 16 40°F 39°F1017.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi38 min W 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 50°F1016.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi38 min 33°F 45°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi29 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F71%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW4W6W5W6NW8W8
1 day agoE3NE4N4NE8NE8NE9N8NE8N6N8N4N4N6N5N3N3N3N3NW4W3NW3W3W5NW5
2 days agoNE3N3NE3NE4NE4NE4CalmNW4CalmCalmS7S4S4SW3SE3SE3CalmCalmS5S4SE3S3CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Mon -- 12:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:57 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:13 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:41 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Mon -- 12:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:02 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:46 PM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.