Wednesday, August16, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Denton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 2:29PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1117 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Rest of today..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1117 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight. A warm front will pass through the area Thursday before a cold front approaches Friday. The cold front will pass through Friday night into early Saturday. A pressure trough will remain nearby for later Saturday and Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Denton, MD
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location: 38.88, -75.83     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161317
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
917 am edt Wed aug 16 2017

High pressure will build across the region today before moving
offshore on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward towards the
area late Thursday and then moves through the area on Friday. A cold
front will approach from the west on Friday, pushing through the
region Friday night through Saturday. High pressure returns for
Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure builds in from the west today. Morning sunshine
will give way to diurnally driven afternoon scattered to broken

Light northwest wind trends west during the afternoon with sea
breezes along the coast.

With a weak wind shift (drier dewpoints) developing across our
area very late this afternoon near or north of i78... Its not
impossible to see a sprinkle in parts of E central or SE pa and
central or S nj toward sunset. Hrrrx and nssl WRF have it.

Blended pops and review of ki suggest not forecasting a sprinkle
in nj or de but instead leave it for the southern part of de.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 16 GFS nam mos

Max temps a couple of degrees above normal.

High risk for dangerous rc formation continues per the 13
second 4-5 ft SE swell from gert, washing ashore.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Again, its not impossible to see isolated sprinkles vcnty
philly to acy at 00z down into S de but not lasting long.

Otherwise becoming mostly clear.

The wind shift progresses southward to near phl by 12z Thursday.

Light north-northeast wind to its north and and light south to
southwest to its south.

Cooler and much more comfortable i78 northward, though short

Patchy fog probably forms toward dawn Thursday, but not nearly
to the extent we see it this morning and not expecting a dense
fog advy situation.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 16 GFS nam mos

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure will start to slide offshore on Thursday with a warm
front developing across virginia. The warm front will push northward
on Thursday and will start to move into our area late Thursday,
pushing through the region on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will
start to develop just north of and along the warm front on Thursday
afternoon and evening and then will overspread the region Thursday
night and Friday as a warmer and moister airmass moves into the mid-

A cold front will approach the region from the west on Friday,
crossing the region late Friday through Saturday. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through
our area. Good shear and forcing across the area means some
storms may be strong, possibly severe, and with pwats running
high again, heavy rain will also be a threat. SPC has a marginal
risk for severe storms just to our west at this time.

Some cooler air should arrive behind the front but it isn't all
that cool or dry so little relief is expected. A shortwave will
cross through the region on Saturday keeping the chance for
showers and thunderstorms throughout Saturday evening. As the
wave pushes to the east, the showers thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage and drier air will start to move in.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and a period of relatively
nice weather should continue for the start of the week with the high
shifting offshore on Monday. Another frontal system will approach
the region for Tuesday Wednesday with another chance for showers and

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Remaining ifr MVFR stratus fog dissipates by 14z. ThenVFR sct-
bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft develop midday with a west-northwest
wind trending west to southwest late in the afternoon except sea
breezes developing vcnty kacy. Isolated light showers possible
se pa to S nj after 21z. I think the NAM tsec is best for fcstg
low lvl rh changes. Narre has completely missed the dense fog in
our area, yet unexpectedly to me has a stratus deck lingering
to around 15z.

Tonight... After any isolated light showers vcnty kilg kphl kacy
southward end by 01z, aVFR night with a wind shift progressing
southward to near kphl by 12z thu. Winds turn light north-northeast
north of the boundary and are light south to southwest to its

Patchy ifr fog stratus may form in the nj and DELMARVA countryside
between 07z-10z 17, but not nearly to the extent of what we see saw
this morning.

Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Sub-vfr conditions in
afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms. Fog possible early
Thursday morning and again late Thursday night.

Friday... Fog possible early morning. Sub-vfr conditions in showers
and thunderstorms.

Saturday... MVFR conditions expected scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Improving conditions late.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Seas are around 5 feet at the buoys off the nj de coast as
hurricane gert heads enewd well offshore toward the north
central atlc. Longer period swell from gert is reaching the
buoys (generally 12-13 seconds) and will continue this morning
then easing slowly this afternoon and evening. Small craft
advisory for seas continues.

Light northwest flow this morning becomes southeast to south
sea breezes during this afternoon. A wind shift back to
northerly should develop for the nj coastal waters late
Wednesday night.

Some fog may develop near the coast and near delaware bay early
today, with visibility restrictions possible. However, this fog
should dissipate rapidly after sunrise with a nice day expected,
save for the aforementioned higher seas.


Thursday thru Sunday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected on the area waters through Sunday. Some gusts around
20-25 knots are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Showers
and thunderstorms possible late Thursday through Saturday, with
locally higher seas and winds.

Rip currents...

a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
in effect today. Long period swells from hurricane gert will
continue to impact the coasts of delaware and new jersey.

Swim only in the presence of lifeguards where safety prevails
and if beaches are closed... Respect the decisions of the local
officials. Do we need a reminder? There have been numerous
drowning fatalities this year along the nj coast, and most of
those at unguarded beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 pm edt this
afternoon for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Drag mps
short term... Drag
long term... Meola
aviation... Drag meola
marine... Drag meola

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 25 mi114 min W 2.9 74°F 1015 hPa74°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi54 min 80°F 81°F1016.8 hPa
CPVM2 31 mi54 min 76°F 76°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 32 mi84 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 73°F 79°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 32 mi54 min W 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 78°F1016.3 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi44 min S 1.9 G 3.9 76°F 1016.2 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 35 mi44 min W 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 1016.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi54 min 80°F 1015.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi54 min NW 7 G 7 74°F 78°F1015.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 77°F 1016.9 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 38 mi54 min NNW 7 G 8 75°F 76°F1015.5 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 39 mi54 min NNW 7 G 8 74°F 1016 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 1016 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 7 77°F 1016.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi54 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 77°F 80°F1016 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 7 79°F 80°F1016 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 47 mi44 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 1015.8 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 47 mi54 min NW 8.9 G 11 76°F 77°F1015.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi114 min Calm 60°F 1016 hPa60°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 48 mi54 min S 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 81°F1015.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 49 mi54 min 76°F 80°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi34 minN 010.00 miClear82°F73°F74%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN4NE3NE3CalmN3CalmNE3N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmNE3SE4CalmCalmSE4SE4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoN5CalmNW5NW6N6NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:00 AM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:18 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:46 AM EDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:23 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.