Thursday, March22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:20PM Thursday March 22, 2018 6:04 AM EDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 433 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of light snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 433 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will continue to move away to the northeast today. High pressure to the west will gradually build across the region through Saturday. Low pressure will move through the carolinas Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220904
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
504 am edt Thu mar 22 2018

In the wake of the departing nor'easter, high pressure in canada
will slowly build south towards our region through the end of
the week. A low pressure system propagating from the southern
plains to the southeastern u.S. Should remain south of our
region late this weekend. High pressure builds over our region
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Remainder of the winter storm warning has been canceled as only
areas of light snow remain in the northeastern portions of the
region. No significant additional accumulation is expected, and
we should see snow continue to diminish across our region.

In the wake of the departing low, should have a relatively
tranquil, albeit cold day. Thanks to the northwesterly flow,
cold air advection, and fresh snow pack, temperatures will be
10 to 15 degrees below normal, with highs forecasted between the
lower 30s in the poconos and mid 40s elsewhere. This is slightly
below MOS guidance as that tends to have a warm bias immediately
following a snow event. While there will be some melting thanks
to the temperatures above freezing, expect much of the region
will keep a substantial snowpack going into this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Thanks to clearing skies, temperatures tonight are expected to
be lower than what we saw this morning, with lows tonight
forecasted to be generally in the 20s across the region. As a
result, any water on the roads from snow melt during the day
could freeze leading to slippery conditions on area roads
tonight into early Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday... Clearing skies on Thursday night will be short lived as
a mid and upper level low, digs quickly southeast over the
region through the day. This will result not only in increasing
clouds, but also possibly some rain and snow showers, especially
along and north of the i-78 corridor through the day. As noted
in the previous forecast, the ECMWF continues to show dry
conditions this day, and moisture could be very limited with
little chance for moisture advection before this event. However,
lower resolution models tend to underforecast precip with these
types of clipper systems, so kept pops close to the previous

Did not spend much time on the forecast beyond Friday to focus
on wrapping up the winter storm event. From the previous
discussion... Another strong vort MAX moves southward from
eastern canada on Saturday as a separate vort MAX moves west-
to- east through the central u.S. And interacts with the digging
perturbation. Attendant surface low in the central plains
Saturday looks to be shunted southward somewhat as it tracks
into the ohio tennessee valleys. Just how far south is a
challenging question, with considerable disagreement among the
operational guidance. The GFS looks especially suspicious,
though, given its very progressive evolution of the northern-
stream vort max. The 12z cmc ECMWF are slower and (as a result)
have the track of the southern- stream system a little farther
north. This may give the DELMARVA peninsula a chance for some
precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, there are
some indications that as the surface low intensifies off the
coast that wraparound (light) precipitation may affect the
eastern CWA on Sunday (aided by the passage of the main
northern-stream vort max). Cannot discount chances of rain
and or snow for much (if any) of the area during this period, so
kept slight-chance pops in the grids. If the southward-
deflection of the southern-stream system occurs later than
anticipated, this may bring somewhat heavier precipitation into
the area (especially delmarva). A low- confidence forecast
exists for this period, to be sure.

Strong ridging develops early next week as the strong cyclonic
vortex meanders eastward off the atlantic coast. This should bring a
prolonged dry period to the area along with a warming trend. A
system may affect the region by mid to late week, but models have
large timing differences. Generally included slight-chance to low-
chance pops on Wednesday for now, but temperatures fortunately look
more seasonal by then.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected with only high clouds (15000
agl or higher). Northwesterly winds near or below 10 kt. High


Friday: potential for MVFR or lowVFR CIGS and rain snow
showers, especially north of abe-ttn. Northwest winds 5 to 15
kts with potential for gusts to 20 kts or so. Moderate

Friday night and Saturday:VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts,
potentially lighter during the night. High confidence.

Saturday night and Sunday: some potential for sub-vfr conditions
with light rain and or snow. Winds north to northeast under 10 kts
Saturday night and 10 to 20 kts on Sunday. Very low confidence.

Winds continue to diminish, but expect to see gale force
conditions continue through at least sunrise on the lower
delaware bay and the coastal waters. On the upper delaware bay,
small craft advisory conditions will continue towards sunrise.

Today and tonight... Winds and seas will continue to subside,
but expect SCA conditions to continue on the coastal waters for
much of this period. On the delaware bay, winds and waves will
likely subside below SCA criteria by mid day.


Friday and Friday night: may see a lull in winds on Friday
morning, but they should increase again by afternoon evening to
advisory criteria.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected. A
slight chance of rain and or snow late, especially near south of
delaware bay.

Sunday: advisory-level northeast winds expected, with some potential
for gales (though this is low confidence). Some potential for rain
and or snow.

There were several record daily maximum snowfalls set yesterday,
march 21st. This occurred at philadelphia, wilmington and allentown
(which smashed their daily record). Atlantic city just missed the
daily snowfall record.

Location record for 3 21 actual snowfall 3 21 18
-------- --------------- -----------------------
phl 4.7" (1932) 6.7"
acy 5.9" (1889) 5.7"
ilg 5.4" (1964) 6.7"
abe 4.3" (1964) 13.2"

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until noon edt today for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz430.

Gale warning until 6 am edt early this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Cms johnson
aviation... Cms johnson
marine... Cms johnson
climate... Gorse

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi64 min NW 12 G 15 35°F 40°F
CPVM2 11 mi46 min 36°F 29°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi46 min 35°F 1010.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi46 min N 14 G 15 37°F 39°F1010.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi46 min 36°F 41°F1011 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi34 min N 16 G 19 37°F 1011.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi154 min NNW 2.9 32°F 1011 hPa29°F
FSNM2 28 mi46 min NNW 18 G 23 36°F 1010.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi46 min NW 17 G 21 37°F 1010.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi46 min N 7 G 11 36°F 43°F1010.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 34 mi46 min NNW 14 G 18 36°F 1011.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi46 min WNW 8 G 11 35°F 41°F1010.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi46 min NW 11 G 18 36°F 42°F1011.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi154 min NW 7 32°F 1008 hPa32°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi46 min NW 11 G 14 36°F 38°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi69 minNNW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1010.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi55 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F29°F78%1011.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi70 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------N21
1 day agoNE12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW4W3NE6NE3N5N5N5N4SE5E7SE7E7E6E7E8

Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.