Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grasonville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:58 PM EDT (20:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 437 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak boundary will remain stalled out near the waters through Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will stall out near the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grasonville, MD
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location: 38.88, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 261917
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
317 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to push to our south overnight, then
high pressure builds to our north Monday and Monday night. This
high builds offshore to or northeast on early Tuesday, while a
frontal boundary lifts across our area. This front may stall
through Wednesday while a couple of low pressure systems move
eastward along the boundary. This front lifts to our north
Wednesday night, before a couple of cold front move across the
area later Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Convection continues over central pa. So far, the storms
haven't shown a persistent severe threat. Part of this could be
due to the fact that anvils are spreading out in the direction
of travel of the storms, which is causing the air immediately
downstream of the storms to be slightly cooler. Also, it looks
likely that the dry air in the mid levels is still in place, as
evidenced by the surface dewpoints decreasing as the mixing
layer increases. Further, the convective temp on the 12z iad
sounding was above 90, so we still have a few decrees to go to
erode the cap.

None the less, still expect the risk of severe storms to
increase as we head into the late afternoon, especially as the
front approaches our region. Therefore, have kept a mention of
severe storms in the forecast, and will continue to monitor the
radar trends. It still looks like the highest risk is from
philadelphia southward, where MLCAPE values could get close to
1000 j kg. Additionally, bulk shear values (almost entirely
speed shear) will be near 40 kts.

The primary hazard looks to be damaging winds (possible both
due to stronger winds mixing down, and some downburst potential
with mid level dry air entrainment). It looks like the hail
threat may be more limited than previously expected as the cape
profile is mostly below the hail growth region. I still can't
rule it out though, so will continue to mention in the hwo.

Still looks like the tornado threat is negligible as there is
very little shear within the boundary layer.

Storms should shift south through the evening. By midnight,
storms should be mostly confined to delmarva. The severe threat
should also end by midnight as well as the low level inversion
develops behind the cold front.

For the rest of the region, drier air should start to filter in
behind the cold front late this evening, leading to clearing
conditions. Depending on how quickly the front arrives,
temperatures could drop into the 50s, but more likely, low level
moisture will keep temperatures from dropping below 60 for much
of the area.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
Memorial day should be a pleasant day for much of the region.

The only possible exception is portions of delmarva. If the
front stalls over this area, showers and storms could linger in
delmarva through the day. Although there is still some
uncertainty, so I stayed close to the previous forecast, it is
worth noting that some of the 12z models show this front
clearing much further south, leaving the entire region dry.

Temperatures behind the front will be 5 to 10 degrees lower
than Sunday, with highs mostly in the 70s and lower 80s. Despite
the northwesterly flow, a sea breeze could develop later in the
day, cooling coastal areas further.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
An unsettle pattern continues for much of the upcoming week
into the weekend, with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night will start out fairly quiet as high pressure
builds to our north. Very late in the night, the high pressure
begins to lose any grip it has on our area as a frontal boundary
begins to lift northward, and as a short wave vorticity impulse
moves into the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

As we go into Tuesday, the front lifting toward the area is
forecast to slow down and may stall out across the region later
Tuesday, into Tuesday night, and into Wednesday as well as
several waves of low pressure move along the boundary. As
multiple rounds of short waves vorticity impulses aloft move
across the area within the northwest-west flow aloft, showers
and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast Tuesday-
Wednesday, although it will not rain the entire time. The higher
probabilities will be tied to the passages of the short waves.

As we move into Wednesday night, the frontal boundary is
expected to lift to our north, and precipitation chances will
lower through Wednesday night, although not be zero as there
will remain unsettled conditions with an additional short
wave vorticity impulse affect the area.

On Thursday and Friday, a couple of frontal boundaries are
forecast to move across the area. The front on Thursday
currently looks to be the stronger of the two, and has a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms to be associated with it.

Thursday also has higher pw values at 1.5-2.0 for some areas, so
it will have a higher threat for heavy rainfall, although pw
values remain over an inch into Friday.

Dry weather may return for early Saturday as high pressure
briefly builds across the northeast and into our area. However,
showers may begin to develop during the afternoon as return flow
develops and a short wave moves across the area. Also, another
cold front is currently forecast to move toward the area on
Sunday, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures through most of the extended period are forecast
to be above normal, with Tuesday possibly being the coolest day
and below or near normal.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions are expected to continue through 18z.

After 18z, there is a chance for tsra across the region. Any
storms will be capable of variable and gusty winds, and possibly
some hail. At this point, have a tempo group to include the
threat with the first potential round of storms, but additional
rounds of storms will be possible continuing into the tonight
period. Winds will generally be from the west around 10 kts with
occasional gusts to 15-20kts.

Tonight... Showers thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through 06z. Once storms move south of the TAF sites, expectVFR
conditions for the remainder of the night. Winds shifting more
northerly overnight, but speeds should stay near or below 10 kt.

Monday...VFR conditions are expected with northerly light winds
through the day. The one exception is that a sea breeze could
develop after 18z which could shift winds at kacy and kmiv to
southeasterly.

Outlook...

Monday night... GenerallyVFR condition expected, although
clouds increase and lower late in the night with a chance of
showers. Winds become northeast 5-10 knots overnight.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... MVFR ceilings may develop early Tuesday
as a warm front lifts across the area and continue into the
night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the period.

East to northeast winds Tuesday and Tuesday evening, become
southeast Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night... MVFR conditions possible early,
then lifting toVFR during the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible, especially Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Winds shift to southwest early and may gust 15-20
knots during the day.

Thursday-Thursday night... GenerallyVFR, except lower
conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and night. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during
the day Thursday.

Friday... GenerallyVFR, except lower conditions possible with
showers and thunderstorms during the day. Southwest winds may
gust 20-25 knots during the day.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory conditions through memorial day. Thunderstorms with
gusty erratic winds will be possible through this evening.

Outlook...

Monday night-Friday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels through the period, although winds may gust
around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day, which could produce locally higher winds
and waves should they occur.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low
through this evening. An increasing long period swell may
increase the risk to moderate on memorial day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Robertson
aviation... Johnson robertson
marine... Johnson robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi58 min SE 12 G 13 75°F 70°F1014.6 hPa (-1.7)68°F
CPVM2 11 mi46 min 76°F 71°F
44063 - Annapolis 12 mi58 min S 9.7 G 14 76°F 72°F1013.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 14 mi40 min 81°F 1013 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi46 min 85°F 76°F1013.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 6 78°F 72°F1013.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi64 min S 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 1014.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi40 min W 12 G 13 84°F 1013.1 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi46 min W 13 G 16 1013.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi46 min NW 7 G 12 88°F 72°F1012.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 34 mi40 min S 9.9 G 12 78°F 1014.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 40 mi40 min WSW 6 G 8.9 82°F 72°F1013.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 7 90°F 73°F1013.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi46 min SSE 7 G 7 80°F 80°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1013.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi68 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F68°F58%1015.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD14 mi64 minS 610.00 miFair87°F69°F55%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW8N7N6N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmE8E7E8E6SE6SE5SE6SE8SE8SE8SE10S11SE11SE13S13
2 days agoS11S7SW6S6S7S7S5SW3W5W4W3W6W9NW5NW7NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Claiborne, Eastern Bay, Maryland
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Claiborne
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.80.70.60.60.70.91.11.31.41.41.41.210.80.70.60.50.60.81.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.