Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, KS
March 28, 2024 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:32 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 10:49 PM Moonset 8:02 AM |
Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 282247 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 447 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Colorado this afternoon.
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti, Kansas Sunday afternoon.
- 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with a return to below normal temperatures.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as the area continues to see a veil of mid and high clouds move through. With low pressure to our west, temperatures are ranging in the 60s for most locales as of 200 PM MDT. Winds are southerly with gusts 20-30 mph at times.
For the rest of the day today and the remainder of the short term period, the main wx concerns will focus on fire wx potential, and a low chance for showers.
For the remainder of the afternoon, with the steady southerly gradient ahead of an elongated trough/low to our west, the airmass has dried out greatly and RH readings are in the teens for many especially along and west of Highway 27 where low and mid teens prevail. There have been no persistent gusts in these areas, which has kept Red Flag conditions in check despite a few fires cropping up on the outskirts of the CWA With a few more hours until sunset, do not see conditions to be met over a wide enough region to warrant a late red flag product.
For tonight, the aforementioned low/trough will slowly trek eastward into the CWA, allowing for a wind shift to the north-northwest. This low will ease into the area through the day Friday and the boundary that sets up along the southern tier zones is going to give a wide range in temps due to the decent CAA northerly flow through the day.
Guidance shows the upper ridge currently over the Plains region shifting east allowing for a shortwave to traverse northwest zones overnight Friday night. There is a 15-20% chance for a few showers to clip northern Yuma county, but mixed guidance on the track may cut this back further.
Going into the upcoming weekend, high pressure building south as the Friday's low/front exits the area, will slide southeast of the CWA Saturday and eventually east of the region Sunday. Another low does set up over eastern colorado this weekend and eventually south/southwest of the area by Sunday.
Overall, this will bring an increase in temperatures, peaking on Sunday as well as drying conditions. There will be a cutoff upper low over the Rockies bringing a chance for showers(20-50%)
Sunday night, mainly along/north of Hwy 36. Depending on the placement of the low on Sunday, fire wx conditions could shift from previous forecast. Currently RH values will reach criteria but winds still lack product support issuance.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Friday to range widely with upper 50s to mid 60s mainly north of the Interstate, and areas south of I-70, mid 60s to lower 70s. Going into the upcoming weekend, lower to mid 60s along/east of Highway 25, and to the west, mid 60s to around 70F for Saturday. On Sunday, another wide range with areas north of the Interstate mid 60s to around 70F. South of I-70, 70s are expected with warmest locales south of Highway 40 down into Greeley and Wichita counties. Overnight lows will range in the 30s each night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
As we begin the start of a new work week, be prepared for some wet conditions across the Tri-State areas as an area of low pressure moves east across Kansas on Monday. As the surface low moves east, the wrap around moisture will move over the forecast area bringing rain chances up to 35% through the afternoon before tapering off Monday evening. There is still disagreement on the timing of the system between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS moving the slowest.
This keeps the forecast on the lower side of the confidence spectrum. So far, the area is expected to see mainly rain with a few slight chances (low confidence) for thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the area similar to a few days ago. Monday evening we could see a transition to a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the area as temperatures approach freezing. Stay tuned for more details as CAM guidance begins to cover the system and provide more insight.
Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees.
The upper trough axis is expected to be pushed south-southeast overnight Monday into Tuesday by a area of high pressure off the SW California coast. The ridge is expected to continue moving east over the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping the Tri-State area dry. A lee surface trough may develop along the Front Range on Thursday possibly creating some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the Colorado Plains. Temperatures will be on a warming trend next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday, the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, and into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Thursday night we are currently expecting overnight lows to be in the 30s to lower 40s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 444 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions remain forecasted for this TAF period. LLWS is forecasted at each terminal; KMCK will see the relative longer period of WS as a surface trough and an associated wind shift move into the area. Winds are forecast to turn northerly at each site around sunrise with winds remain around 13 knots for the remainder of the period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 447 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Colorado this afternoon.
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions generally south of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Leoti, Kansas Sunday afternoon.
- 20%-50% chances for rain showers Sunday night and Monday with a return to below normal temperatures.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly to mostly sunny mix as the area continues to see a veil of mid and high clouds move through. With low pressure to our west, temperatures are ranging in the 60s for most locales as of 200 PM MDT. Winds are southerly with gusts 20-30 mph at times.
For the rest of the day today and the remainder of the short term period, the main wx concerns will focus on fire wx potential, and a low chance for showers.
For the remainder of the afternoon, with the steady southerly gradient ahead of an elongated trough/low to our west, the airmass has dried out greatly and RH readings are in the teens for many especially along and west of Highway 27 where low and mid teens prevail. There have been no persistent gusts in these areas, which has kept Red Flag conditions in check despite a few fires cropping up on the outskirts of the CWA With a few more hours until sunset, do not see conditions to be met over a wide enough region to warrant a late red flag product.
For tonight, the aforementioned low/trough will slowly trek eastward into the CWA, allowing for a wind shift to the north-northwest. This low will ease into the area through the day Friday and the boundary that sets up along the southern tier zones is going to give a wide range in temps due to the decent CAA northerly flow through the day.
Guidance shows the upper ridge currently over the Plains region shifting east allowing for a shortwave to traverse northwest zones overnight Friday night. There is a 15-20% chance for a few showers to clip northern Yuma county, but mixed guidance on the track may cut this back further.
Going into the upcoming weekend, high pressure building south as the Friday's low/front exits the area, will slide southeast of the CWA Saturday and eventually east of the region Sunday. Another low does set up over eastern colorado this weekend and eventually south/southwest of the area by Sunday.
Overall, this will bring an increase in temperatures, peaking on Sunday as well as drying conditions. There will be a cutoff upper low over the Rockies bringing a chance for showers(20-50%)
Sunday night, mainly along/north of Hwy 36. Depending on the placement of the low on Sunday, fire wx conditions could shift from previous forecast. Currently RH values will reach criteria but winds still lack product support issuance.
For temps, looking for daytime highs on Friday to range widely with upper 50s to mid 60s mainly north of the Interstate, and areas south of I-70, mid 60s to lower 70s. Going into the upcoming weekend, lower to mid 60s along/east of Highway 25, and to the west, mid 60s to around 70F for Saturday. On Sunday, another wide range with areas north of the Interstate mid 60s to around 70F. South of I-70, 70s are expected with warmest locales south of Highway 40 down into Greeley and Wichita counties. Overnight lows will range in the 30s each night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
As we begin the start of a new work week, be prepared for some wet conditions across the Tri-State areas as an area of low pressure moves east across Kansas on Monday. As the surface low moves east, the wrap around moisture will move over the forecast area bringing rain chances up to 35% through the afternoon before tapering off Monday evening. There is still disagreement on the timing of the system between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS moving the slowest.
This keeps the forecast on the lower side of the confidence spectrum. So far, the area is expected to see mainly rain with a few slight chances (low confidence) for thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the area similar to a few days ago. Monday evening we could see a transition to a rain/snow mix for a large portion of the area as temperatures approach freezing. Stay tuned for more details as CAM guidance begins to cover the system and provide more insight.
Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with overnight lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees.
The upper trough axis is expected to be pushed south-southeast overnight Monday into Tuesday by a area of high pressure off the SW California coast. The ridge is expected to continue moving east over the Plains through the middle of the week, keeping the Tri-State area dry. A lee surface trough may develop along the Front Range on Thursday possibly creating some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the Colorado Plains. Temperatures will be on a warming trend next week with highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday, the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, and into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Thursday night we are currently expecting overnight lows to be in the 30s to lower 40s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 444 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions remain forecasted for this TAF period. LLWS is forecasted at each terminal; KMCK will see the relative longer period of WS as a surface trough and an associated wind shift move into the area. Winds are forecast to turn northerly at each site around sunrise with winds remain around 13 knots for the remainder of the period.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
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