Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sharon Springs, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:30PM Sunday November 19, 2017 6:09 AM CST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 6:44PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon Springs, KS
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location: 38.89, -101.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 191116
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
416 am mst Sun nov 19 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday night)
issued at 322 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
main forecast issue will be fire weather concerns on Monday with
secondary concerns of temperatures through the period. High
temperatures and mixing could be greatly affected by cirrus,
especially on Monday. Satellite showing an amplified flow from the
pacific into the eastern north america. A broad ridge has built into
the western portion of north america which has brought northwest
flow aloft to the region.

Models started out very well at mid and upper levels. The NAM looked
to be starting well on the surface wind and pressure field. The
ukmet, sref, and canadian models started out the best on the low
level thermal field.

Today tonight... Right rear quadrant of jet starts over the area at
the beginning of the day and then moves to the east. Models develop
downslope winds, especially in the western portion. However a
concern for temperatures will be how much cirrus will be around.

Comparing the high level rh progs to satellite would indicate that
the more aggressive model output is going to be wrong. Also models
have had tendencies in the past of bringing too much cirrus in
northwest flow aloft. Based on that and latest 2 meter 850 mb
forecasts and biases, am going to keep the warmer high temperatures.

Warm air advection and downslope winds increase during the night. So
low temperatures could be rather mild.

Monday Monday night... For the fire weather issues please refer to
the discussion below. The left front quadrant of a 140 to 160 knot
jet begins affecting the western portion of the area during the
afternoon. That jet continues to affect most of the area through the
night. That plus high level rh progs would indicate that cirrus
could thicken increase during the afternoon.

Downslope winds are stronger this day than today. Based on the
forecast soundings and plan view lapse rates, am really concerned
that the models may be underdoing the mixing. Although if we get
thick cirrus in here, that could hinder warmer. After considering
all factors, decided to increase winds and high temperatures.

Models still showing a slug of mid level moisture moving in and
remaining over the area during the night. Some model output is
spitting out some very light precipitation amounts during the night.

Warm air advection and downslope winds remain rather strong during
the night in advance of an approaching cold front. However models
showing a rather deep dry layer so think even what little
precipitation is being shown is being overdone. Combination of winds
and thickening cloud cover will make for above normal low
temperatures.

Tuesday Tuesday night... Depending on which model, the cold front
mentioned above looks to move through very late Monday night or
early Tuesday. Due to where the jet is located and rh progs
continuing a decent amount of mid and high level moisture over the
area combined with the frontal passage will make for a much cooler
day and kept what the blend gave me.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 152 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
dry conditions are expected through out the entire extended period
as an upper level ridge over the rockies dominates the region. Highs
for the rest of the work week (wed-fri) will reach into the middle
to upper 60s, with some local area reaching around 70 by Friday.

Friday night, the upper level ridge will flatten enough to allow
troughing to move down through the tri-state region. This troughing
will have an associated front with it. This front looks to be dry;
however, temperatures will be impacted over the weekend. Expect
afternoon high temperatures to reach only into the lower to middle
50s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 414 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
vfr conditions are expected through the period. West to southwest
winds of 6 to 9 knots will shift to the south during the late
afternoon. Those winds will shift back to the southwest during the
evening then to the west after midnight while remaining near 6
knots.

Fire weather
Issued at 322 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
for Monday... Some uncertainty in regards on how much mixing there
will be. The amount of mixing could be affected by how fast and
thick the cirrus moves in becomes. At this time am siding toward
more mixing warmer temperatures lower relative humidities. The
lowest humidities and strongest winds look to set up over the
northwest corner of my area. So will be putting a fire weather watch
out for yuma, dundy, and cheyenne county in kansas from late
morning through the afternoon.

However, there is potential if less cloud cover occurs that better
mixing and higher winds could cover a much larger portion of the
area. This will have to be monitored closely.

Gld watches warnings advisories
Ks... Fire weather watch Monday afternoon for ksz001.

Co... Fire weather watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for coz252.

Ne... Fire weather watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for nez079.

Short term... Buller
long term... Bw
aviation... Buller
fire weather... Buller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Goodland, Renner Field, KS34 mi76 minSW 710.00 miFair22°F12°F68%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from GLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19
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NW7W3W6W7W7SW8W7W6SW9SW8SW8SW7SW8
1 day agoSW13SW15SW13SW17
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NE12NE9NE8N11N8N11N17
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G28
2 days agoS9S12S12S15S17S16S17S18S16S12
G22
S11S14S11S13S18S13S10SW13W12W7SW9W9SW11SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.