Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sharon Springs, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:56PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 12:27 AM CST (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon Springs, KS
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location: 38.89, -101.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 220551
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
1051 pm mst Mon jan 21 2019

Update
Issued at 918 pm mst Mon jan 21 2019
updated the forecast to include greeley county and wichita
county, kansas into the winter weather advisory. Visibilities
have reduced due to freezing fog impacting the areas. Reports of
slick roadways have also been received.

Additionally, started the advisory now for cheyenne county,
colorado and wallace county, kansas, as winter weather advisory
conditions have arrived sooner than previously forecast.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 257 pm mst Mon jan 21 2019
latest satellite and upper air analysis show a trough over the great
basin. At the surface a warm front was located over east central
colorado along the west edge of the stratus. West of the warm front
the sky was clear and temperatures were in the 40s to 60s. East of
the warm front the sky was overcast with temperatures in the 20s
along with areas of freezing fog.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting the warm front to move
southeast, causing clouds to clear and temperatures to warm for the
southwest 1 3 of the tri-state area. Little to no change is
expected to the north. Moved up the start time of the winter
weather advisory to the afternoon to account for the freezing fog.

This evening visibilities will fall quickly from the east as the
freezing fog moves in. Currently thinking the majority of the
freezing fog will be east of highway 25 due to the winds changing to
the north and west over the west half of the tri-state area.

Around midnight the strong cold front will move in from the
northwest. Behind the front the environment will saturate
vertically through the night. This will cause the precipitation to
start out as freezing drizzle until the saturated environment
deepens cools enough to have ice crystals form, changing the
precipitation to snow. Freezing drizzle will change to snow from
west to east through the night and into Tuesday morning. The change
over will occur first in the blizzard warning area.

Meanwhile as the upper level low moves over the forecast area
isentropic lift will strengthen on the backside of the trough.

Current data indicates the isentropic lift will remain nearly
stationary to the northwest of yuma county, which is where the
highest snowfall amounts will be. (on a side note, current data has
shifted the track of the trough slightly to the south, which has
also shifted the axis of higher snowfall amounts south. So far the
higher amounts remain northwest of yuma county.) am expecting most
of the snow to fall between midnight and 6 am mt before moving east
over the rest of the forecast area.

Tuesday morning the freezing drizzle will finish transitioning to
snow over the forecast area before mid morning. Northwest winds
will quickly strengthen as stronger winds mix down behind the upper
level trough as it moves eastward. The highest gusts will be in the
morning over the blizzard warning area. However winds will increase
east of the blizzard warning area in the afternoon behind the
exiting upper level trough. The higher wind gusts should occur as
the snow intensity declines. Around 6 pm local time the winds will
rapidly decline as the inversion develops.

Regarding the wind, the forecast area is in a great position to have
high wind gusts due to the trough moving over the forecast area.

However most of the forecast area has 50 kts at the top of the mixed
layer, which lowers confidence that these winds will reach the
ground; even on a sunny day.

Impacts...

dangerous driving conditions are expected in yuma county
and adjacent parts of neighboring counties after midnight and well
into Tuesday due to zero visibility from the snow and blowing
snow. Thus the upgrade to blizzard warning.

Ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch should occur over
most of the tri-state area prior to the snow occurring. Highest
amounts will be north of i-70. Bridges overpasses will be the most
susceptible. However untreated paved roads may also become slick.

(greeley wichita counties were not added to the advisory at this
time due to low confidence of ice accumulations occurring).

Reduced visibility from freezing fog east of highway 25 this
afternoon and evening before the freezing drizzle occurs. This may
cause a glaze of ice to form on bridges overpasses.

Confidence...

confidence is high that blizzard conditions will occur for yuma
county. Confidence is between moderate and high for blizzard
conditions occurring in counties adjacent yuma county. Due to the
potential for dangerous driving conditions, decided to error on the
side of caution and include sherman, cheyenne ks, and dundy county
in the blizzard warning.

Confidence in ice accumulations is between moderate and high for the
entire forecast area. With up to 10 hours of freezing drizzle
possible, this is plenty of time for a light glaze of ice to form.

The threat for ice accumulations increases to the east due to the
longer window of time before the snow moves in.

Confidence in wind gusts around 60 mph is moderate. Would not be
surprised to see a few gusts around 60 mph during the morning
Tuesday in the blizzard warning area. However confidence is not
high enough at this time to warrant a high wind warning. Could say
confidence is highest for high wind gusts to occur at goodland given
the current data and high wind climatology.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 157 pm mst Mon jan 21 2019
the central plains will be under northwest flow this period,
caught between a ridge over the western CONUS and trough near the
great lakes, neither of which will be moving. Weak waves embedded
in the flow will provide occasional chances for light snow. No
significant impacts are anticipated from any of these fast moving
systems.

Temperatures are a bit up and down through the period, although
there are no extremes. Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s
with lows in the teens and 20s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1044 pm mst Mon jan 21 2019
a cold front will continue to move through the tri-state area
tonight. Conditions will prevail as sub-vfr first due to low
visibilities from freezing fog and drizzle at both terminals. They
will then remain poor at the goodland terminal due to blowing
snow.

Conditions will improve first at the mccook terminal, as they
will be less impacted by this event. However, as goodland will be
expecting blizzard conditions, the terminal will see periods of
lifr conditions due to blowing snow. Winds will be 40-45kts
around the area.

By Tuesday afternoon, snow will come to an end with MVFR
conditions by 18z andVFR after 22z.

Gld watches warnings advisories
Ks... Blizzard warning until 5 pm mst 6 pm cst Tuesday for ksz001-
013.

Winter weather advisory until 5 pm mst 6 pm cst Tuesday for
ksz002>004-014>016-027>029-041-042.

Co... Blizzard warning until 5 pm mst Tuesday for coz090-091.

Winter weather advisory until 5 pm mst Tuesday for coz092.

Ne... Blizzard warning until 5 pm mst Tuesday for nez079.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Tuesday for nez080-081.

Update... Ev
short term... Jtl
long term... 024
aviation... Ev


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Goodland, Renner Field, KS34 mi34 minN 131.75 miFog/Mist24°F23°F96%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from GLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE18
G24
SE17
G23
SE10SE13SE12SE10SE16SE12SE15SE9SE6SE9S12SE6SE9SE8SE8SE8SE6E6N11N14N11N13
1 day agoSW13SW14SW14SW14W13SW12SW11W11W13SW7N11
G17
N11N9E7E11E10SE11SE14SE10SE10SE11SE8SE13SE14
2 days agoN16N14N13N19
G25
N17N15N13N13N9N10NW10CalmW6SW53W6CalmS8S10SW13SW8SW11SW12SW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.