Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sharon Springs, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:55PM Saturday January 20, 2018 8:32 PM CST (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:10AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sharon Springs, KS
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location: 38.89, -101.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 202351
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
451 pm mst Sat jan 20 2018

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 323 pm mst Sat jan 20 2018
deepening trough is in place over the great basin with southwest
flow across the central high plains, and this is the system we are
tracking for Sunday through Monday morning. At the surface, a
stationary front is in place just south of our cwa, with surface
low pressure over southeast colorado.

Primary concern is potential for a significant winter storm expected
to develop Sunday and continue through Monday.

Tonight-Sunday morning: low level moisture is shown to increase in
east-northeast boundary layer flow and guidance shows potential for
freezing fog late this evening and after midnight, and eventually
freezing drizzle as depth of saturated layer increases. Overall
precip signal is very light and saturated layer may not be deep
enough for more than a light glaze. There is a period where moisture
advection increases during the late morning hours and a few
hundredths of an inch of icing could develop.

Sunday afternoon-Monday morning: trough become negatively tilted and
tracks within favorable region from southeast colorado (around 18z)
and near our southeast CWA through Sunday night. Deformation zone
developed in northeast colorado and slides eastward, and in this
region heavy snow should develop. GFS is currently the most
disorganized on forcing moisture advection, while NAM gem ECMWF are
matching reasonably well on heavy snow signal from i-70 north.

Locations south are much less certain. It is possible that if there
is instability (as indicated by nam) we are running too low on
amounts in our north by 2-3", and almost all guidance is trending
lower on amounts in our south where we could be running 1-3" too
high. Most snowfall should be ending west to east after 3 am mst (4
am cst), with light snow possibly lingering through late Monday
morning.

All guidance is showing windy conditions, and there is a concern that
winds on the back side of this system may approach warning criteria
(58mph or higher). This occurs as the main deformation zone
transitions east, which lowers confidence on possible blizzard
conditions (1 4sm or less). Reduced visibilities 1 mile or less appear
likely, and if this timing of the strongest winds pans out we may
see ground blizzard develop Monday morning for a brief period as the
strongest wind axis shifts eastward. There was discussion about
issuance of blizzard warning, however ultimately the lack of
confidence in a prolonged threat of whiteout conditions led us to
hold onto the current winter storm warning.

Monday afternoon: conditions should be dry, however complications
of possible snow pack could lead to much lower afternoon temps
despite possible clearing. Windy conditions may linger in our
east, but with temperatures at least approaching freezing (if not
above) under sunny skies, we should see the blowing snow threat
diminish (due to settling crusting).

Long term (Monday night through Saturday) issued at 254 pm mst
sat jan 20 2018
high pressure begins to move into the region as the storm system
moves further out of the area Monday night through Tuesday night
and the upper western u.S. Ridge moving across the rockies and
high plains regions on Wednesday and Thursday.

The lee trough deepens over the high plains on Thursday night into
mid day Friday ahead of the next larger scale upper trough to affect
the forecast area between Friday and Saturday. Ahead of this next
system, daytime highs are expected to rise into the 40s and 50s with
lows mainly in the 20s. Friday could see a light mix of rain and
snow with a transition to all snow Friday evening as temperatures
drop below freezing. The system continues to pass through high
plains into the central plains as an open wave on Saturday and
Saturday night with much of the system dynamics circumnavigating the
forecast area. Therefore only expect light rain snow accumulations
at this point between mid day on Friday and late Friday evening.

High temperatures on Saturday will be back down in the 30s with
lows in the teens.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 439 pm mst Sat jan 20 2018
for kgld,VFR conditions are expected until late this evening. At
05z MVFR conditions will develop. Beginning at 08z and continuing
through the end of the period, ifr to lifr conditions will
prevail through the rest of the period. Some fog may occur from
08z to 13z and depending on the temperature could be freezing.

Precipitation looks to begin around 13z and should be mostly
freezing drizzle. This transitions to snow and blowing snow in
the afternoon as the northeast winds of 8 to 12 knots that
prevailed for the entire period will increase to near 24 knots
with gusts to near 32 knots.

For kmck,VFR conditions are expected until 07z. At that time ifr
to lifr conditions will develop and continue through the rest of
the forecast period. Some fog could occur from 07z to 10z and
depending on the temperature could be freezing. Precipitation
begins around 12z and looks to be of the liquid variety until 21z.

At that time the precipitation should transition from freezing
precipitation to snow with blowing snow as the northeast winds
near 10 knots will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with
gusts to near 28 knots.

Gld watches warnings advisories
Ks... Winter storm warning from 11 pm mst midnight cst this evening
to 5 am mst 6 am cst Monday for ksz001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.

Co... Winter storm warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 am mst Monday
for coz090>092.

Ne... Winter storm warning from 11 pm mst midnight cst this evening
to 5 am mst 6 am cst Monday for nez079>081.

Short term... Dr
long term... Lockhart
aviation... Buller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Goodland, Renner Field, KS34 mi39 minNNE 610.00 miFair32°F25°F75%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from GLD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3W5W4NW6NW6NW5NW4CalmW8NW4NW5N9N10N9N10N7N10NE8NE6NE9NE7NE6
1 day agoSW12SW9SW12SW11SW11SW11SW11SW11SW9SW10SW13SW11SW9SW10SW13SW15
G22
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NW8N5N4NE7NE5Calm
2 days agoW4W8W9W9W10W10W8W9W8SW6SW9SW10SW10W12W12SW10W10W7CalmSW5S6SW7SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.