Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheyenne Wells, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday March 23, 2017 5:08 PM CDT (22:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 2:35PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheyenne Wells, CO
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location: 38.89, -102.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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Fxus63 kgld 232139
afdgld
area forecast discussion
national weather service goodland ks
339 pm mdt Thu mar 23 2017

Short term (this afternoon through Friday)
issued at 339 pm mdt Thu mar 23 2017
early afternoon WV imagery and rap analysis shows a trough becoming
negatively tilted near the four corners region. SW diffluent flow
extends across the plains ahead of this upper trough. At the surface
lee trough is deepening with a trough axis near our northern cwa
and a dry line and possible warm front just south of our cwa.

This afternoon-evening: mesoanalysis shows weakening CIN and axis of
2500 j/kg sb CAPE east of co state line. Axis of 50-75 kt effective
bulk shear extends along the co border. As cap is weakening we are
beginning to see CU field developing along and east of surface low
pressure. Short range guidance (rap/hrrr) are showing thunderstorm
initiation along co border within the hour, and increasing
coverage/possible mergers through the early evening. Shear profiles
at least within the effective layer are linear in nature, however as
llj increases around 00z we may see low level veering (particularly
along warm front/trough axis) which could allow super cell
development. Greater concern will be for large hail and damaging
winds (particularly damaging winds due to high storm bases and
dry air masses). Dcape values are already in the 1000-1500 j/kg
range. Due to the very high shear environment and possibility for
dry air entrainment/precip loading (based on moisture profiles)
raises the possibility for isolated gusts in excess of 80 mph.

Late tonight-Friday: upper low closes off and deepens and is showing
by guidances to track near southern kansas border (there are
variances). As has been the case guidance shows best precip coverage
across our NW CWA where occlusion/deformation zone sets up and
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Wet bulb profiles on
gfs/ecmwf are borderline on rain/snow mix, however in our far west
we should see a change over in the 09-15z time frame and a mix can't
be ruled out in counties adjacent to co border. I couldn't rule out
moderate snow accumulations in our far west, however ground
temperatures are very warm and I am unsure how persistent the
snowfall would be. NAM is a cold outlier, but it should be noted it
shows the possibility for predominately snow spreading into nw
kansas/sw nebraska (similar conditions to eastern co). GFS and ecmwf
do show temperature profiles cooling over NW ks during the day as
upper low transitions east, but this is separated from main precip
axis in the west.

It is worth noting that unless we see showers/isolated thunderstorms
fill in near upper low center, our southeast CWA may not receive any
precipitation Friday due to a dry slot moving from the southeast to
northwest. I trended pops down for those locations.

Regarding wind/winter weather highlights: mixed layer winds should
support at least 60 mph along and west of the co state line late
tonight and Friday (west to east progression in winds increasing). I
have less confidence in winds furthest east towards hwy 83 and sw
nebraska due to position on main wind max. I went ahead and upgraded
watch to high wind warning, but could see the counties east and
north remaining just below criteria. Where snow occurs (more likely
west) these winds should combine to crease blowing snow/near
blizzard conditions. Confidence was lower in the east due to better
consistency with gfs/ecwmf. I was also unsure of duration of
possible white out conditions, so decision was made to issue winter
weather advisory for our eastern colorado counties. We will need to
monitor trends, and make adjustments as necessary.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 1241 pm mdt Thu mar 23 2017
several wx systems set to affect the tri state region for the
extended period. The first will occur Friday night as wrap-around
moisture from exiting system will mainly affect northern zones thru
06z Saturday. Second system will be a quick moving shortwave for the
latter portion of the upcoming weekend into Sunday night. A large
cutoff h5 low then swings into the southwest portions of the country
by Tuesday shifting eastward into the southern plains into Thursday.

High pressure set to affect the region in between affecting systems.

For Friday night... CAA accompanying the wrap-around moisture will
keep a rw/sw mix or all -sw for NE colorado as temps slide into
the 30s. Areas east of the colorado border will see light rain as
temps do not drop to see any changeover before precip exits. For
the end of the weekend system... Temps will remain in a range to
keep all areas as light rain showers. QPF expectations will reach
possibly in a range of 0.10-0.20" for these two systems combined.

The prolonged nature of the upcoming mid week system for next
Tuesday into Thursday will bring in ample gulf moisture for a 0.75-
1.00" potential QPF range with some localized higher amounts...

especially west of highway 83. Colder air wrapping into area wed
night into Thursday will bring best chances for snow showers to mix
with expected rain. Light accumulation possible for western zones.

For temps... Near to above normal highs expected with a range from
the mid 50s to the mid 60s... Warmest timeframes on Saturday and next
Monday which do coincide with surface ridging arriving before
shortwaves. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s for most nights.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1136 am mdt Thu mar 23 2017
aviation impacts at kgld and kmck include thunderstorm potential
this afternoon and evening, with widespread rainfall developing
late tonight in colorado spreading over the terminals by 12z.

Strong winds gusting 40-50kt will be possible at kgld at the end
of the TAF period (Friday), with gusty winds at both terminals
today. Wind shifts will occur as a strong front moves through the
region with north winds prevailing after 12z. Ifr (or lower)
conditions will develop Friday morning as large surge of moisture
moves into the region. I can't rule out snow or blowing snow at
kgld. Confidence is not high on more than an mix at this time and
lower vis due to blowing snow is uncertain.

Gld watches/warnings/advisories
Ks... High wind warning from 6 am mdt /7 am cdt/ to 6 pm mdt /7 pm
cdt/ Friday for ksz001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

Red flag warning until 7 pm mdt /8 pm cdt/ this evening for
ksz001-013-027-041.

Co... Red flag warning until 7 pm mdt this evening for coz252>254.

High wind warning from 3 am to 6 pm mdt Friday for coz090>092.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon mdt Friday for
coz090>092.

Ne... Red flag warning until 7 pm mdt this evening for nez079.

Short term... Dr
long term... Jn
aviation... Dr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington - Carson County Airport, CO24 mi76 minS 14 G 2210.00 miFair80°F32°F17%996.6 hPa

Wind History from ITR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS23
G29
SE25
G30
SE20S23
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SE20SE20S20S23S19S15S22S19
G26
S16S16S15S14S10SW10S10SW16
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SW12
1 day agoSE16
G20
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E16SE11SE12SE10SE14SE18SE20
G25
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SE14SE15
G23
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SE16S19
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G31
2 days agoE16
G21
SE15
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E10E12E13NE11NE12E13E13E10SE11SE5N7NE6E6E7E12E9E11
G17
E12
G19
SE10
G17
E10
G17
SE14
G28
SE15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Goodland, KS (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Goodland, KS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.