Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheyenne Wells, CO
March 29, 2024 9:49 AM CDT (14:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 11:57 PM Moonset 8:34 AM |
Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 291045 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A chance of light rain showers (20%-30%) this evening across the northwest portion of the forecast area.
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon south of a line from Flagler and Burlington to Wallace and Leoti.
- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon generally along and west of Highway 27.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Today-tonight...a cold front moves through the area today, lowering high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma, warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain showers this evening, mainly along/north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 as a weather disturbance moves in from the southwest and northwest. Given a lack of CAPE and poor mid level lapse rates, thunder is currently not expected. NAM is bringing in a saturated boundary layer from the northeast overnight which if verifies, would produce increasing low clouds and possibly some fog. As usual, GFS and HRRR are less bullish on the low level moisture and historically the NAM is occasionally right in these situations. So, something to watch in the 12z/18z model cycles.
Saturday-Saturday night...light east and northeast winds in the morning veer around to the east and southeast through the day. With increasing pressure falls, breezy to perhaps windy south to southeast winds are forecast (gusts up to 35 mph) generally west of Highway 25. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s, a good compromise between NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures and the better performing variety of temperature guidance from the past 7 days. If the NAM verifies, the stratus mentioned above would put a dent in the high temperature forecast by several degrees. Low temperatures are projected to be in the lower 30s to around 40.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 213 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The long-term will start off under a broad ridge that will allow for the warming trend to continue through Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 60s to low 80s. The trade off is that RH values will drop into the mid to lower teens in the south/southwestern CWA Combined with southerly winds sustained around 20 kts and gusting to 35+ kts in the afternoon hours, critical fire weather conditions will be likely (55%) to occur for a few hours. The locations that are expected to see critical fire weather conditions are primarily west of Kansas Highway 25 and south of Interstate 70. There is little (~10%) confidence that blowing dust will be an issue based on current guidance, but isolated blowing dust cannot be completely ruled out.
Overnight Sunday, low temperatures will be in the 30s. There is also a chance (20%) for fog to form in the eastern/northeastern portions of the CWA Cross sections are supporting this by showing moist easterly flow with a low-level inversion.
Sunday evening is when the "fun" really begins as an upper-level deep trough begins to impact the area from the northwest. The GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF are still showing different things in the mid and upper-levels, but the track of the 850 mb low pressure system is being highlighted to move close to the NE/KS border to the east before taking a more northeasterly path. Overall chance of precipitation is about 60% from this system in the northwestern portion of the CWA PoPs taper off farther to the south. The main P-Type is still a bit of an uncertainty, but rain is looking more likely.
With the very warm temperatures on Sunday and strong southerly inflow, we should have a surface layer remain above freezing.
Near the end of the event, gusty northerly winds will usher in cold air leading to a bit of snow at the end. Refreeze could be a major hazard with this system!
There are multiple ways that the thin melting layer may disappear leading to snow or a wintry mix. The worst case scenario is the entire low shifts south. If that were to happen, we could be looking at a snow band setting up over the CWA I am slightly leaning towards the GFS's guidance based on how it is positioning and resolving the vertical continuity of the system, something the ECMWF seems to be struggling with.
It is still uncertain how much precipitation will fall, but most of it will likely fall near the northern portions of the CWA Timing of precipitation is also a big question. Precipitation could start as early as 21Z Sunday or as late as 6-12Z Monday. Ending times are even more of an unknown. Precipitation may cease as early as 21Z Monday or as late as 9Z Tuesday.
High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday, which adds some merit to the potential of a mostly rain event. Overnight low temperatures are predicted to drop into the mid 20s Monday night.
After the trough and the precipitation clear the area on Tuesday, a well defined ridge from the southwest will build in over the Tri- State area. This will lead us to another warming trend that will last through the rest of the period. By Friday, temperatures look to rebound back into the 70s, maybe even 80s. Overnight lows will also follow this trend with 30s and low 40s expected for Wednesday through Friday nights.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A west wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest at similar speeds around 14z then become northerly with gusts up to 20kts or so from 16z-18z. After 19z, winds are forecast to be from the north to northeast at speeds up to 10kts. We'll be watching for the possibility of stratus and perhaps some fog with sub VFR conditions after about 08z as boundary layer moisture possibly moves in from the northeast.
KMCK..VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a northwesterly direction at speeds under 10kts from 14z-15z. From 16z-21z, northerly winds gusting up to 25kts are anticipated.
After 22z, north to northeast winds of 10-12kts slowly decrease, mainly after 06z. Similar to KGLD, we'll be watching for the possibility of stratus and perhaps some fog with sub VFR conditions after about 06z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A chance of light rain showers (20%-30%) this evening across the northwest portion of the forecast area.
- Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon south of a line from Flagler and Burlington to Wallace and Leoti.
- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon generally along and west of Highway 27.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Today-tonight...a cold front moves through the area today, lowering high temperatures into the lower 60s to lower 70s (coolest in Yuma, warmest in Tribune/Leoti). Breezy north winds are possible, mainly along and north of I-70. Low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. There will also be a 20%-30% chance for light rain showers this evening, mainly along/north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 as a weather disturbance moves in from the southwest and northwest. Given a lack of CAPE and poor mid level lapse rates, thunder is currently not expected. NAM is bringing in a saturated boundary layer from the northeast overnight which if verifies, would produce increasing low clouds and possibly some fog. As usual, GFS and HRRR are less bullish on the low level moisture and historically the NAM is occasionally right in these situations. So, something to watch in the 12z/18z model cycles.
Saturday-Saturday night...light east and northeast winds in the morning veer around to the east and southeast through the day. With increasing pressure falls, breezy to perhaps windy south to southeast winds are forecast (gusts up to 35 mph) generally west of Highway 25. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s, a good compromise between NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures and the better performing variety of temperature guidance from the past 7 days. If the NAM verifies, the stratus mentioned above would put a dent in the high temperature forecast by several degrees. Low temperatures are projected to be in the lower 30s to around 40.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 213 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The long-term will start off under a broad ridge that will allow for the warming trend to continue through Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 60s to low 80s. The trade off is that RH values will drop into the mid to lower teens in the south/southwestern CWA Combined with southerly winds sustained around 20 kts and gusting to 35+ kts in the afternoon hours, critical fire weather conditions will be likely (55%) to occur for a few hours. The locations that are expected to see critical fire weather conditions are primarily west of Kansas Highway 25 and south of Interstate 70. There is little (~10%) confidence that blowing dust will be an issue based on current guidance, but isolated blowing dust cannot be completely ruled out.
Overnight Sunday, low temperatures will be in the 30s. There is also a chance (20%) for fog to form in the eastern/northeastern portions of the CWA Cross sections are supporting this by showing moist easterly flow with a low-level inversion.
Sunday evening is when the "fun" really begins as an upper-level deep trough begins to impact the area from the northwest. The GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF are still showing different things in the mid and upper-levels, but the track of the 850 mb low pressure system is being highlighted to move close to the NE/KS border to the east before taking a more northeasterly path. Overall chance of precipitation is about 60% from this system in the northwestern portion of the CWA PoPs taper off farther to the south. The main P-Type is still a bit of an uncertainty, but rain is looking more likely.
With the very warm temperatures on Sunday and strong southerly inflow, we should have a surface layer remain above freezing.
Near the end of the event, gusty northerly winds will usher in cold air leading to a bit of snow at the end. Refreeze could be a major hazard with this system!
There are multiple ways that the thin melting layer may disappear leading to snow or a wintry mix. The worst case scenario is the entire low shifts south. If that were to happen, we could be looking at a snow band setting up over the CWA I am slightly leaning towards the GFS's guidance based on how it is positioning and resolving the vertical continuity of the system, something the ECMWF seems to be struggling with.
It is still uncertain how much precipitation will fall, but most of it will likely fall near the northern portions of the CWA Timing of precipitation is also a big question. Precipitation could start as early as 21Z Sunday or as late as 6-12Z Monday. Ending times are even more of an unknown. Precipitation may cease as early as 21Z Monday or as late as 9Z Tuesday.
High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday, which adds some merit to the potential of a mostly rain event. Overnight low temperatures are predicted to drop into the mid 20s Monday night.
After the trough and the precipitation clear the area on Tuesday, a well defined ridge from the southwest will build in over the Tri- State area. This will lead us to another warming trend that will last through the rest of the period. By Friday, temperatures look to rebound back into the 70s, maybe even 80s. Overnight lows will also follow this trend with 30s and low 40s expected for Wednesday through Friday nights.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 445 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A west wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest at similar speeds around 14z then become northerly with gusts up to 20kts or so from 16z-18z. After 19z, winds are forecast to be from the north to northeast at speeds up to 10kts. We'll be watching for the possibility of stratus and perhaps some fog with sub VFR conditions after about 08z as boundary layer moisture possibly moves in from the northeast.
KMCK..VFR conditions are currently expected through the period.
A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a northwesterly direction at speeds under 10kts from 14z-15z. From 16z-21z, northerly winds gusting up to 25kts are anticipated.
After 22z, north to northeast winds of 10-12kts slowly decrease, mainly after 06z. Similar to KGLD, we'll be watching for the possibility of stratus and perhaps some fog with sub VFR conditions after about 06z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KITR KIT CARSON COUNTY,CO | 24 sm | 56 min | NNW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 27°F | 52% | 29.76 |
Goodland, KS,
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