Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:03 PM EST (20:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, OH
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location: 38.89, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 171832
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
132 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure tonight. Next cold front Sunday night through Monday
night. Remaining cool through mid week, but modest warming for
the end of the week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 220 pm Saturday...

clearing line working north through the area this afternoon,
all while stratus evolves into a broken stratocu field across
southeast ohio and northern west virgina. This trend will
continue into the early evening hours, as low level waa
continues. Meanwhile some cirrus will be traversing the area
from the west, well in advance of an approaching S W trof.

Based on model soundings and satellite imagery upstream, I do
not believe this will temper overnight lows. As such, I have
relied more on the colder guidance, especially in the typical
cold spots.

The upper S W trof pivots closer Sunday, with mid and
eventually low level moisture advecting into the area. This
looks to affect primarily southeast ohio until very late in the
afternoon. A low level baroclinic zone will develop across
portions of southeast ohio, with lift increasing enough for
a few light showers late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
warmest across the west virginia lowlands, where mid to upper
50s look reasonable.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
As of 330 am Saturday...

the stationary front draped just north of the ohio valley will
be slow to drift south and pass through the CWA as a cold front.

It will take the upper flow aloft turning cyclonic once again
with a couple of weak trough axes to drive the surface system.

Have pushed back the timing of the the precipitation arrival and
frontal passage to the Monday Monday night time frame. Snow
showers will be possible Monday night as the colder air filters
back in, with modest accumulations in the forecast before the
moisture exits.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 330 pm Friday...

the upper level cyclonic flow holds for the front end of the
extended, likely with a reinforcing dry cold front Wednesday,
keeping november seasonally cool. However, the end of the week
signals a warming trend with upper ridging building across the
mississippi valley and progressing eastward. This will raise the
heights and 850mb temperatures, and normal to slightly above
normal temperatures are trending for Friday and Saturday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 225 pm Saturday...

MVFR CIGS in broken stratocu will continue to dissipate this
afternoon across southeast ohio and northern west virginia. In
its wake a mainly clear sky this evening will give way to
intervals of cirrus. Models do not indicate any dense fog at the
terminals tonight, however my confidence is a bit low on this
scenario given the wet grounds and an absent dense cirrus
canopy. I have left the tafs void of any fog with this issuance,
but could see it introduced in the 00z set. Developing light
southeast flow could allow low stratus to develop across the
eastern slopes of the mountains, though bkw is expected to
stay clear of any stratus at this time.

Bases will gradually lower across southeast ohio Sunday as an
approaching S W trof allow for mid and eventually low level
moisture to advect in from the west. ElsewhereVFR conditions
should prevail with some cirrus and eventual mid level clouds.

Surface winds will remain light overnight into Sunday, taking on
a more southeast direction.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Sunday...

forecast confidence: low on fog tonight. High thereafter.

Alternate scenarios: more widespread river valley fog may
develop tonight than currently forecast.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
est 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency m h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h m m h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency m h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Sunday...

no widespread ifr conditions expected.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 30 mc
near term... 30
short term... 26
long term... 26
aviation... 30


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 3I2 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------Calm
1 day ago------------------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.