Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Hill, OH
March 29, 2024 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:18 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 11:35 PM Moonset 8:14 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 290714 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 314 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak system brings rain across the north and upslope snow for the mountains through this morning. Dry but windy through tonight. Several rounds of showers this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 210 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Wind Advisory in effect through this evening for SE Randolph and both Pocahontas County zones.
* Fire concerns remain possible today for those who do not receive rain early this morning.
* Light snow accumulations possible for the highest elevations along the WV mountains today of 1 to 2 inches.
A weak shortwave propagating along a frontal boundary draped through the northern periphery of the forecast area early this morning has prompted light radar returns streaming down from the northwest. Temperature/dew point spread suggests that very little has actually reached the surface so far, with only a Trace noted at Wheeling and Morgantown so far in our nearby observation areas. Should see a slight increase in moisture/dew point values as we progress into the predawn hours, which should allow for some light accumulations in the lowlands before activity becomes more confined to the mountains.
While sprinkles/light rain will be the common precip-type in the lowlands with this weak disturbance today, sub-freezing temperatures along the mountains will promote a late March snow event. Showers wrap up quickly this afternoon as the shortwave drifts east of the Appalachians, but before doing so could allot for around an inch to an inch and a half of snow for our highest mountain zones. Otherwise, should be a dry evening as clouds diminish and we await our next disturbance encroaching on the Middle Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
In conjunction with this disturbance, an increase in WNW winds is progged to take place today, especially along the spine of the Appalachians. Already starting to see an uptick in surface gusts at Snowshoe early this morning of around 25 mph, and should see that value increase in nature as flow along also increases. Forecast soundings today point to momentum transfer as high as 4,000ft AGL, which will allow for strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Generally looking at breezy wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the lowlands for this afternoon and evening, while the mountains could face gusts as high as 50 mph before the day is through. To add on to the previous Wind Advisory put in place for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas County, did elect to expand into SE Pocahontas with this latest update to account for any possible downsloping that may occur today.
Temperatures today will climb up into the mid to upper 60s across the Tri-State area while our northeastern zones will stay in the 40s/50s under continued showers. Given the increasing gusty winds today and aforementioned mixing potential, could foresee RH values dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s by this afternoon, posing the concern for fire ignition and spread. A special weather statement may be needed for enhanced fire danger during daylight hours today into this evening. Overnight temperatures heading into the start of the weekend look to be in the 40s across the area tonight.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 AM Friday...
Key Messages: * Chances of showers and mainly afternoon thunderstorms remain present as a system passes by on Saturday and then a front stalls over the area for the rest of the weekend.
* Localized flooding could develop as showers continue in the vicinity of the front.
A low pressure system crosses to the north of the CWA on Saturday.
The best potential for rain showers and thunderstorms with this system will be across southeast OH and the northern half of WV, though some models hint at more widespread precipitation coverage.
Both showers and mainly afternoon storms then remain a possibility as a cold front descends into the area Saturday night and stalls overhead for the rest of the weekend. Another system approaching from the west is projected to begin lifting the front back to the north as a warm front early in the new work week. Continued precipitation in the vicinity of the front could eventually lead to localized flooding.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 310 AM Friday...
Key Points:
Key Messages: * Active pattern continues, with another system bringing potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon.
* The arrival of colder air may allow rain to transition to snow along the mountains late Wednesday into Thursday.
* High pressure returns for the end of the work week.
A low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes Region during the first half of the work week. The CWA should initially reside within the warm sector of the system before the low pushes a cold front through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Model soundings are already suggesting conditions may be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. In addition to moderate instability and sufficient moisture, rather strong shear is expected - courtesy of a low level jet - which could allow storms to produce damaging winds. Strong storms then remain a possibility with the passage of the cold front overnight. Localized flooding also remains a concern as some areas may already be saturated from rainfall earlier in the week.
Precipitation is expected persist behind the front Wednesday into Thursday as an upper trough continues to slide east overhead. Cold air advecting into the area behind the front should allow rain to transition to snow along the mountains by late Wednesday then snow remains the dominant precipitation type into Thursday.
Meanwhile, mainly rain is expected for the lowlands.
Precipitation is expected to come to an end late Thursday into Thursday night as upper level ridging and surface high pressure begin to build for the end of the work week.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 210 AM Friday...
A weak disturbance brings passing showers into the northern half of the area early this morning, which will then migrate onto the West Virginia mountains by dawn into early this afternoon. Still relatively dry in the low levels at the time of writing, so little to nothing has reached the surface so far. Think better potential for light rain and/or snow will be along the higher terrain here in the next few hours, but did opt for VCSH at PKB, CKB, and EKN to account for current radar trends. Ceilings with this passing system should remain in low end VFR for all terminals on Friday, but may see a brief period of MVFR sneak into EKN later on this morning.
Afternoon trends are progged to be VFR conditions/dry weather into this evening, but another disturbance looms for late tonight into Saturday. Showers and lowering ceilings encroach after midnight.
Breezy winds will be noticeable after daybreak this morning across the area of around 15-20 kts through late this afternoon.
Mountain zones will encounter stronger winds gusts on the order of 35-40kts, but should remain south and east of EKN. Surface winds relax after sunset tonight. LLWS may attempt to transpire this morning before surface gusts get going for the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may occur for brief period Friday morning before mixing down to the surface. MVFR ceilings may sneak into EKN Friday morning within passing rain/snow showers.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/29/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 210 AM Friday...
Early morning showers moving from NW to SE from southeast OH into the WV mountains is not anticipated to press into the central and southern lowlands today. Dry conditions for those that do not receive rain this morning will impose a concern for fire weather conditions through the course of the day.
Strengthening surface winds, coupled with lower RH values mixing down, will impose surface relative humidity values to around 30-40%. This will be especially true for parts of southwest West Virginia and northeast Kentucky.
A disturbance crossing into the region starting late tonight will provide a better chance for wetting rain on Saturday for areas primarily north of the I-64 corridor. Relative humidity values look to benefit from this passing disturbance on Saturday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 314 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak system brings rain across the north and upslope snow for the mountains through this morning. Dry but windy through tonight. Several rounds of showers this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 210 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Wind Advisory in effect through this evening for SE Randolph and both Pocahontas County zones.
* Fire concerns remain possible today for those who do not receive rain early this morning.
* Light snow accumulations possible for the highest elevations along the WV mountains today of 1 to 2 inches.
A weak shortwave propagating along a frontal boundary draped through the northern periphery of the forecast area early this morning has prompted light radar returns streaming down from the northwest. Temperature/dew point spread suggests that very little has actually reached the surface so far, with only a Trace noted at Wheeling and Morgantown so far in our nearby observation areas. Should see a slight increase in moisture/dew point values as we progress into the predawn hours, which should allow for some light accumulations in the lowlands before activity becomes more confined to the mountains.
While sprinkles/light rain will be the common precip-type in the lowlands with this weak disturbance today, sub-freezing temperatures along the mountains will promote a late March snow event. Showers wrap up quickly this afternoon as the shortwave drifts east of the Appalachians, but before doing so could allot for around an inch to an inch and a half of snow for our highest mountain zones. Otherwise, should be a dry evening as clouds diminish and we await our next disturbance encroaching on the Middle Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.
In conjunction with this disturbance, an increase in WNW winds is progged to take place today, especially along the spine of the Appalachians. Already starting to see an uptick in surface gusts at Snowshoe early this morning of around 25 mph, and should see that value increase in nature as flow along also increases. Forecast soundings today point to momentum transfer as high as 4,000ft AGL, which will allow for strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Generally looking at breezy wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the lowlands for this afternoon and evening, while the mountains could face gusts as high as 50 mph before the day is through. To add on to the previous Wind Advisory put in place for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas County, did elect to expand into SE Pocahontas with this latest update to account for any possible downsloping that may occur today.
Temperatures today will climb up into the mid to upper 60s across the Tri-State area while our northeastern zones will stay in the 40s/50s under continued showers. Given the increasing gusty winds today and aforementioned mixing potential, could foresee RH values dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s by this afternoon, posing the concern for fire ignition and spread. A special weather statement may be needed for enhanced fire danger during daylight hours today into this evening. Overnight temperatures heading into the start of the weekend look to be in the 40s across the area tonight.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 AM Friday...
Key Messages: * Chances of showers and mainly afternoon thunderstorms remain present as a system passes by on Saturday and then a front stalls over the area for the rest of the weekend.
* Localized flooding could develop as showers continue in the vicinity of the front.
A low pressure system crosses to the north of the CWA on Saturday.
The best potential for rain showers and thunderstorms with this system will be across southeast OH and the northern half of WV, though some models hint at more widespread precipitation coverage.
Both showers and mainly afternoon storms then remain a possibility as a cold front descends into the area Saturday night and stalls overhead for the rest of the weekend. Another system approaching from the west is projected to begin lifting the front back to the north as a warm front early in the new work week. Continued precipitation in the vicinity of the front could eventually lead to localized flooding.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 310 AM Friday...
Key Points:
Key Messages: * Active pattern continues, with another system bringing potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon.
* The arrival of colder air may allow rain to transition to snow along the mountains late Wednesday into Thursday.
* High pressure returns for the end of the work week.
A low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes Region during the first half of the work week. The CWA should initially reside within the warm sector of the system before the low pushes a cold front through Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Model soundings are already suggesting conditions may be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. In addition to moderate instability and sufficient moisture, rather strong shear is expected - courtesy of a low level jet - which could allow storms to produce damaging winds. Strong storms then remain a possibility with the passage of the cold front overnight. Localized flooding also remains a concern as some areas may already be saturated from rainfall earlier in the week.
Precipitation is expected persist behind the front Wednesday into Thursday as an upper trough continues to slide east overhead. Cold air advecting into the area behind the front should allow rain to transition to snow along the mountains by late Wednesday then snow remains the dominant precipitation type into Thursday.
Meanwhile, mainly rain is expected for the lowlands.
Precipitation is expected to come to an end late Thursday into Thursday night as upper level ridging and surface high pressure begin to build for the end of the work week.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 210 AM Friday...
A weak disturbance brings passing showers into the northern half of the area early this morning, which will then migrate onto the West Virginia mountains by dawn into early this afternoon. Still relatively dry in the low levels at the time of writing, so little to nothing has reached the surface so far. Think better potential for light rain and/or snow will be along the higher terrain here in the next few hours, but did opt for VCSH at PKB, CKB, and EKN to account for current radar trends. Ceilings with this passing system should remain in low end VFR for all terminals on Friday, but may see a brief period of MVFR sneak into EKN later on this morning.
Afternoon trends are progged to be VFR conditions/dry weather into this evening, but another disturbance looms for late tonight into Saturday. Showers and lowering ceilings encroach after midnight.
Breezy winds will be noticeable after daybreak this morning across the area of around 15-20 kts through late this afternoon.
Mountain zones will encounter stronger winds gusts on the order of 35-40kts, but should remain south and east of EKN. Surface winds relax after sunset tonight. LLWS may attempt to transpire this morning before surface gusts get going for the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may occur for brief period Friday morning before mixing down to the surface. MVFR ceilings may sneak into EKN Friday morning within passing rain/snow showers.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/29/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
FIRE WEATHER
As of 210 AM Friday...
Early morning showers moving from NW to SE from southeast OH into the WV mountains is not anticipated to press into the central and southern lowlands today. Dry conditions for those that do not receive rain this morning will impose a concern for fire weather conditions through the course of the day.
Strengthening surface winds, coupled with lower RH values mixing down, will impose surface relative humidity values to around 30-40%. This will be especially true for parts of southwest West Virginia and northeast Kentucky.
A disturbance crossing into the region starting late tonight will provide a better chance for wetting rain on Saturday for areas primarily north of the I-64 corridor. Relative humidity values look to benefit from this passing disturbance on Saturday afternoon.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDWU ASHLAND RGNL,KY | 24 sm | 49 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 36°F | 100% | 30.08 |
Charleston, WV,
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