Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:40 PM EST (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, OH
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location: 38.89, -82.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 212020
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
320 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure in control through early tonight. Several systems
will bring unsettled weather mainly across the south tonight
into Friday night and then spreading north through the weekend.

Near term through Friday
As of 209 pm Thursday...

surface high pressure system remains on control of our weather
into early tonight. A series of shortwaves then should result
in increasing clouds as well as precipitation moving back into
the region from the southwest tonight.

Based on latest model guidance, have increased pops to likely
tonight across southwest va as well as far southern WV and the
wv mountains. The precipitation should fall as rain in most of
these locations. However, freezing rain is possible across the
highest elevations of the northern mountains where up to 0.10
inches of ice is possible. After consultation with our neighbors,
have gone ahead and issued a winter weather advisory.

Models suggest northern edge of precipitation should move back
to the south during the day. Because of consistency between the
models, have gone ahead with this thinking.

Could see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across our far southern
counties tonight through Friday.

Previous temperature forecast generally looks good. Have only
made minor tweaks to reflect latest guidance.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
As of 310 pm Thursday...

scattered showers linger as a remnant frontal boundary stalls
Friday evening across the southern third of the area. Meanwhile,
a deeply amplified trough ejects from the rockies during this
time, producing a variety of potential hazards as it approaches
and crosses our area. A light glaze along the highest ridges and
peaks of the north central WV mountains is possible early
Saturday as precipitation moves into the area, but impacts would
be minimal with quickly warming temperatures.

The trough of interest rotates negatively into the plains
Saturday, strengthening southwest flow to 50 kts at 850 mb,
lifting the remnant boundary north as a warm front in the ohio
valley. As a result, moisture increases to 1.3"+ pwat area-wide
by Saturday afternoon. This leaves ample opportunity for
moderate to heavy rainfall basically everywhere Saturday into
Saturday night. While many long-range models have consistently
placed an axis of heavy rainfall of 1-2" near and south of the
64 corridor, the NAM and SREF have trended and shifted the
corridor further north into the middle ohio valley and into se
ohio. Most of these lowland areas are already saturated, and
have streams already running high, and the mountains have
considerable liquid captured in snowpack, so flood vulnerability
exists basically everywhere. The greatest threat would
therefore exist where any axis of heavy precipitation sets up.

Fortunately, convective rainfall looks unlikely on Saturday with
a strong low-level temperature inversion keeping things pretty
well capped in this warm frontal scenario. Some elevated
instability exists in the oh ky WV tri-state region Saturday
afternoon, but currently not enough confidence to include thunder
in that portion of the forecast. Saturday night, thunderstorm
threat increases in spite of fairly limited instability, and is
chiefly tied to the cold front itself, where frontal lift can
tap into modest elevated CAPE on the order of 500 j kg cape.

Very high shear on the order of 80+ kts 0-6km means that one or
more potent lines of thunderstorms will form ahead of the front
packing isolated damaging wind gusts. Storms will tend to be
much stronger toward the west over parts of the lower ohio and
tennessee valleys where stronger daytime instability exists,
however those storms will likely spill into appalachia as they
weaken with the setting Sun thanks to aforementioned strong low-
and mid- level flow. So, strong gusts, mainly sub-severe, are
likely area-wide, but saturated grounds mean trees and power
lines can come down with wind gusts well below severe criteria.

Models place the cold front near the ohio river during the pre-
dawn hours of Sunday and then quickly shoves it across the wv
mountains by late morning. Moisture aloft quickly diminishes
behind the front, ending the flood and thunderstorm threat. Low-
to mid-level moisture remains in the cold-advective scheme, so
do expect area-wide cloud cover to remain through the period
with lingering drizzle freezing drizzle in the mountains
tapering off Sunday evening. Strong winds do linger however
through Sunday as the upper level trough rotates up and out
toward the northeast, with gusts 30-40+ kts possible everywhere.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 315 pm Thursday...

zonal flow takes hold across much of the CONUS with the departure of the short-
term period's trough, which makes for a relatively quiet and
much-needed dry period, albeit with a degree of temperature
uncertainty given weak forcing. The GFS tends to keep the region
on the warm side and the ECMWF on the cool side. Long- range
models bring in the next system by mid-week.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 1235 pm Thursday...

surface high pressure in control today into early tonight with
vfr conditions and weak flow.

A series of weak weather disturbances will then result in
lowering clouds and a chance of precipitation spreading in the
the southwest. Expect MVFR conditions in rain showers will
again be possible across southwest va and far southern wv
counties around 06 utc and then spreading northeast into the
northern mountain counties by 08 utc.

Some locations across southwest va and the southern WV mountains may
see ifr lifr conditions between 09z and 15 utc.

Patchy freezing rain may be possible across the highest elevations
of the northern mountain counties between 07 utc & 15 utc.

Current thinking is that the northern edge of the precipitation
will move back to the south after 15z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: none.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
est 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency m h h h h h h h h h h m
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 18z Friday...

ifr possible in rain beginning Friday night and continuing
through Saturday night.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Friday for wvz523-526.

Flood watch from 1 am est Friday through Sunday morning for
wvz005>007-013>015-024>027-033-034-515>520.

Oh... Flood watch from 1 am est Friday through Sunday morning for
ohz083-086-087.

Ky... Flood watch from 1 am est Friday through Sunday morning for
kyz101>103-105.

Va... Flood watch from 1 am est Friday through Sunday morning for
vaz003-004.

Synopsis... Jsh mc
near term... Jsh
short term... Mc
long term... Mc
aviation... Jsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 3I2 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------SW7W3W6--------NW4
1 day ago----------------------------Calm--CalmSE3------------
2 days ago--------------------------SW12
G23
--SW18
G28
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.