Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brookmont, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:44 PM EDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:11AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 432 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Light flow is expected with high pressure to the south through the weekend. Tranquil weather expected although daily scattered Thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening mainly Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookmont, MD
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location: 38.92, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201856
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
256 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis Weak high pressure will remain over the region
through tonight, followed by the potential for weak
disturbances Friday through Sunday. An upper level trough of low
pressure will move over the northeastern us early in the new
week.

Near term through Friday night Sultry night on tap with
increasing high clouds keeping temps up overnight. 24-hr model
trends in temperature indicate a 2-4 deg f rise from last night
meaning places like dc and balt will not drop below 80f. In
fact, downtown balt may only drop to mid 80s tonight. For
tomorrow, models don't indicate much change in maxt so
temperatures will be as hot as they are today. Moisture might be
a little higher with 850 mb and sfc dewpoints progged much
higher than today. Heat advisories will likely be needed again
for most of the area similar to today. With regards to
convective potential tonight and fri, hi-res convective allowing
models show weakening MCS tracking across pa into ERN wv late
tonight after 06z, so have low chance pops confined only to west
of the blue ridge mtns. Late Fri and Fri evening, GFS guidance
shows potential MCS activity crossing the appalachians and parts
of the fcst area. Risk of t-storms looks definitely a little
higher than today.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night Potentially
active convective day during the afternoon and evening. Both gfs
and ECMWF show an MCS over the lower great lks moving sewd
across the fcst area Sat afternoon and evening. As always with
summertime convection, details especially with respect to timing
are very uncertain this far out. Continued hot and humid with
heat advisories still likely to be needed.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Upper level energy from the west will set up a trough of low
pressure on the leeside of the appalachians Sunday into Sunday
night. Additional showers and thunderstorms could form along this
trough but could mainly be isolated to scattered. Highs will reach
the middle to upper 90s.

A cold front will approach the region Monday before pushing across
the region Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of this front. Highs will reach the 90s again.

The front could stall just to our south Tuesday, allowing for a
couple of showers or a thunderstorm to develop.

High pressure will build in from the west and northwest Tuesday
night through Thursday. Temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees
cooler than previous days with a comfortable relative humidity.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday Hot and hazy next few
days. Sct-nmrs t-storms mainly sat.

MVFR to ifr conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Sunday through Monday night. Winds southwest becoming west-northwest
5 to 10 knots Sunday into Sunday night. Winds northwest becoming
southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday night.

Marine Potential for showers and thunderstorms Fri night and
Saturday and again Sun which may require special marine
warnings.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds
southwest 10 knots Sunday and Sunday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10
knots Monday and Monday night.

Climate
Late july is climatologically the warmest time of the year,
just like six months from now is the coldest time. How has the
heat of 2017 compared with heat waves (up to now) in other
years? I chose "consecutive days that reached 90 and above" as
the criteria.

At dca there have been two times this summer with stretches of
six consecutive days - beginning june 29 and again july 19. In
terms of ranking (going back to 1871) these are #47 and 48. #1
(18 consecutive days) occurred 145 years ago - beginning
6 27 1872!
for baltimore there were also six consecutive days beginning
june 29, which puts it in 36th place. #1 was 13 consecutive days
beginning 7 3 1993.

The all-time record for june-aug: for baltimore 25 consecutive
days beginning 7 12 1995. For dc there have been two periods of
21 consecutive days - beginning 7 29 1988 and 7 25 1980.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for mdz003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-502>508.

Va... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz027>031-
036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Wv... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for wvz051>053.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Klw
aviation... Lfr klw
marine... Lfr klw
climate... Woody!


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 5 mi44 min SW 5.1 G 7 94°F 86°F1012 hPa (-1.6)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 23 mi134 min SSW 4.1 91°F 1013 hPa72°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi44 min 92°F 1011.8 hPa (-1.8)
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi34 min SSW 7.8 G 12 87°F 1 ft1012.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi44 min S 12 G 13 87°F 84°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 37 mi44 min W 6 G 11 96°F 87°F1011.7 hPa (-1.7)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 37 mi44 min WSW 11 G 12 94°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.9)
CPVM2 38 mi44 min 87°F 81°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 41 mi34 min S 12 G 14 87°F 1013.3 hPa
NCDV2 42 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 92°F 1012.1 hPa (-1.6)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi34 min S 12 G 14 87°F 1 ft1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA6 mi52 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy97°F64°F34%1012.8 hPa
College Park Airport, MD10 mi56 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy94°F68°F42%1012.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA14 mi46 minS 510.00 miFair94°F72°F50%1013.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD14 mi1.8 hrsWSW 510.00 miFair94°F69°F44%1013.5 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD17 mi48 minSW 510.00 miFair93°F71°F49%1015.4 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA19 mi52 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F69°F46%1012.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD21 mi56 minW 510.00 mi91°F68°F46%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from DCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW10SW7S9S6S6S7S5S4S4SW5SW4CalmCalmN6N6NW756SW76W9W9SW8
1 day agoN3CalmS7S7S7S7S5S6S5SW4SW3SW4SW4CalmE3N5N5N5E5S9S9S944
2 days agoE5NE14SE11S7S9SE4S7S8SE5S6S6--S73S4SE3S6S6S7S13S12S7S11SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.411.92.83.43.63.42.82.11.40.90.50.20.30.91.82.52.932.621.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Reagan National Airport, Washington, D.C.
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Reagan National Airport
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:29 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.51.22.23.13.63.73.42.82.11.40.90.50.20.41.122.73.13.12.61.91.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.