Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:26PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:42 AM EDT (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 432 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of the overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push through the mid atlantic this morning. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 270754
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
354 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Northeastward moving low pressure from the upper great lakes to
missouri will pull a warm front northward through the DELMARVA and
southern new jersey today. The warm front should stall across
southeastern pennsylvania and central new jersey, awaiting the
passage of the missouri low, through new jersey, Tuesday evening.

Thereafter, canadian high pressure will build into our area
Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure in the ohio valley on Friday
will move east and off the mid atlantic coast on Saturday. Weak
high pressure should follow on Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A slow moving warm front will be tracking across the area today.

Our forecast has trended slower with the frontal passage and
includes a slower trend in improvement (sunshine) behind the
front and slightly lower temperatures for today. We have issued
a dense fog advisory for DELMARVA and parts of se/pa and SRN nj
for the early part of the morning, since the vsbys continue to
trend downward and are 1/2 sm - 3/4 sm attm. The onshore flow
will continue in these areas until the front passes later today.

The low clouds and areas of dense fog will be over the area
thru the first part of the morning before a S to N slow
improvement trend is expected today. Areas across the lehigh
valley and southern poconos may see improvement late this
afternoon. Confid in the n/w areas is limited attm. The low
which the warm front is attached to is weak, so it's possible
that the topography of these areas may play a factor slowing the
motion. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 60s/low 70s
over south nj and delmarva, low/mid 60s in central nj , metro
philadelphia and lehigh valley and 50s north of that.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday/
Hopefully the warm front will have moved far enough away to have
a lull in the precip for the evening. More showers will arrive
overnight as the next short wave approaches from the w/sw. Pops
increase back to the chc range overnight, favoring slightly the
srn nj and DELMARVA areas. Mild with lows in the low 50s s/e and
mid/upper 40s n/w. Light winds expected.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
500 mb: a split flow regime will continue across the united
states during this period. A short wave crosses pennsylvania
Tuesday and then phases with a northern stream system into a
closed low over the maritimes Wednesday night. The next southern
stream short wave in the pipeline over the mississippi valley
Thursday night, weakens eastward off the mid atlantic coast
Saturday. Yet another southern stream short wave will be moving
eastward from the lower mississippi valley early next week.

Temperatures: calendar day averages should be about 5 degrees above
normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday and normal to 5 degrees
below on Friday, and then normal or several degrees above on
Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/27 gfs/nam MOS Tuesday-
Wednesday, then 00z/27 mexmos Wednesday night-Thursday and
thereafter wpc guidance Thursday night-Sunday.

The dailies...

Tuesday... The position of the warm front Tuesday will probably
result in a wide range in temperatures across our area with
large error potential i-78 region northward where global models
are warm but the ever improving 12km NAM and its downscaled 3km
temperatures, are much cooler. Dreary north of that warm front
with patchy dense fog possible and a likelihood of heavy showers
during the afternoon and evening as the missouri low cuts east
along the mason dixon line, heading for a nj seaward exit Tuesday
evening. There could be afternoon and evening thunderstorms
with this short wave. Within the warm sector in advance of the
cold front, we expect sunshine to break out south of the warm
front with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. A low- level
moist tongue will also be in place across this area, ml cape
(400-800j), along with negative lifted and showalter indices,
within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates and weak
shear. Thunder is expected but despite the warm front,right now
svr is not. Do follow later phi and SPC discussions. Precipitable
water values around 1.25 inches, should yield some heavy showers
near the path of the low. Movement should be east northeast and
there could be some training and backbuilding along the warm
front so that this may need to be monitored for narrow bands
poor drainage street flooding rain Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Winds light northeast, north of the warm front (near i-78) and
southerly in the warm sector DELMARVA and S nj. Confidence:
above average except the location of the warm front and the
associated temps near the warm front.

Tuesday night... Showers still may be heavy in the evening (still
thunder possible?), then end from west to east late and the
wind turns north everywhere. Confidence: above average.

Wednesday... A gusty northerly flow to 25 mph of cold air
advection. Dry. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... A sunny start, then increasing clouds and cool ahead
of the next storm system. Light wind. Confidence: above average.

Friday... Gradual model consensus that this actually looks like
a decent little mid atlantic coastal storm with one half to 1.5"
of qpf, and currently, only a slight chance of a little wet
snow near and north of i-80 since models have trended slightly
northward. Confidence: above average
Saturday... Precipitation(mainly rain) ends, but clouds may
linger since there doesn't seem to be much in the way of high
pressure following the low. Confidence: average
Sunday... Considerable cloudiness. Low confidence on what might
transpire this day.

Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

The latest issuance of the tafs are somewhat more pessimistic with
regards to how fast the transition back to MVFR thenVFR occurs
today. Warm fronts are usually known for their stubbornness for
improving conditions and this seems to be the case for today. A
decent SW flow aloft argues for the fact that when things begin to
improve, it should happen quickly, but what time that happens is the
problem for the day. The showers that the models show arriving this
morning may mix up the low clouds and fog enough to get the process
going. Winds will be erly prior to the warm front the SW behind it.

Vfr will probably be across the del valley and delmarva/south nj
this afternoon, conditions may remain MVFR across krdg/kabe longer.

Probably a period ofVFR this evening, the more low clouds/showers
late tonight.

Outlook...

confidence: above average all days. Exception being the details of
the warm frontal position Tuesday and timing of poorest conditions
where there is less than average confidence.

Tuesday... Ifr or MVFR conditions Tuesday morning at all TAF sites,
with improvement toVFR by afternoon at all but abe, rdg, and ttn
where ifr may may linger all day. Showers become widespread in the
afternoon/evening with light northeast flow at abe, rdg, ttn and
light south or southeast flow elsewhere. Isolated tstms expected.

Tuesday night... MVFR possible early in showers, otherwise becoming
vfr late. Winds becoming north everywhere late.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR. North wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Thursday...VFR. Light north wind.

Friday... Ifr or MVFR conds in periods of rain. Mostly east wind
ahead of the low.

Marine
We will continue with the SCA flag for seas around 5 ft seas today.

The erly flow will be weakening with time as the warm front slides
northward today. I could see the flag being dropped earlier, but
we will keep it for now. Dense fog on the waters this morning with
the warmer and more humid air arriving across the cold water.

Scattered showers later this morning may stir vsbys up. More sct
showers expected tonight. Patchy fog tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Fog may be marine hazard? Otherwise no SCA expected at
this time. Thunderstorms could occur, especially late in the
day. Confidence: average.

Tuesday night... SCA northerly flow may develop late. Confidence:
average.

Wednesday... Northerly flow sca. Confidence: above average.

Thursday... No headlines. Confidence: above average.

Friday... SCA potential as low pressure heads for the mid
atlantic coast. Confidence: above average.

Equipment
Knel appears to be reading 10f too warm the past couple of
days.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for paz070-071-
101-102-104.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for njz013-014-
016>018-020>024-026-027.

De... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for dez001>004.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 10 am edt this morning for mdz008-012-
015-019-020.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until noon edt today for anz430-431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for
anz450>453.

Synopsis... Drag 353
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Drag 353
aviation... Drag/o'hara 353
marine... Drag/o'hara 353
equipment... 353


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi43 min 46°F 46°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi43 min E 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 45°F45°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi43 min 46°F 1019 hPa (-1.5)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi43 min ENE 1 G 2.9 45°F 46°F1019.6 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 24 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 1019 hPa (-1.6)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi43 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 1019.5 hPa (-1.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 1019.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi43 min Calm G 1.9 49°F 46°F1018.5 hPa (-1.6)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 47°F1019.3 hPa (-1.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi43 min S 7 G 8 46°F 1019.5 hPa (-1.7)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi43 min NNW 1 G 2.9 47°F 48°F1019.3 hPa (-0.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 47°F 47°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi88 min E 4.1 45°F 1020 hPa45°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi43 min NE 1 G 2.9 44°F 45°F1019.2 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi68 minSE 40.50 miFog46°F46°F100%1019.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi49 minN 00.25 miFog47°F46°F97%1019.4 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi58 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist48°F46°F94%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE14E10
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E6E9E6E5E4E5E3CalmSE3SE4SE3
1 day agoS5SW7SW8SW8SW9SW10SW8SW7SW5SW3SW4SW3S3SE3SE3E11E6E10
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2 days ago--------SW12
G18
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S8SW7S7S7SW8SW6SW7SW8SW7SW8SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:53 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.71.11.31.41.41.10.80.50.20-00.10.40.81.11.41.41.210.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:45 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.60.80.90.70.3-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.40.10.50.80.90.70.4-0-0.5-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.