Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:25PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:24 AM EDT (09:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 435 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Increasing to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through the waters late today and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday afternoon through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170742
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
342 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the middle atlantic region this afternoon.

It will be followed by high pressure from the ohio valley which will
be across the area through Friday. Another low pressure system and
cold front will affect our area Friday night and Saturday. More high
pressure will move in for the end of the weekend and into early next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Cold front is expected to arrive later today. Pressure gradient,
especially behind the front will increase significantly. As a
result, expect gusty conditions and strong cold air advection.

One thing we are not expecting much of with this front is
precipitation. Dew points have dropped into the 30s and 40s across
the region after the cold front from 2 nights ago. There will not be
any significant moisture advection today ahead of the front. Thus,
precipitation, if any, will be limited. Have kept only a slight
chance mention across the southern poconos and NW nj.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Behind the front, expect continued dry and cold air advection
overnight. Consequently, we could see the first freeze of the season
for some of our area. There are however a few unknowns that could
have an impact on how widespread the freeze will be. First of all,
winds are not expected to decouple much overnight, but rather should
remain near or above 10 mph. As a result, we likely won't see much
in the way of a frost. However, this could also limit radiational
cooling. Secondly, if mid level clouds that are expected this
afternoon with the front are slower to clear out, that could also
limit radiational cooling.

Freezing conditions look to be most likely in the southern poconos
where we have issued a freeze warning. For far NW nj, confidence is
lower, so have issued a freeze watch for sussex county. For the rest
of NW nj, lehigh valley, and berks county, we will likely see lows
in the mid 30s, but are not planning any frost advisory at this time
as the winds should preclude the development of frost.

For areas along and southeast of the i95 corridor, expect lows from
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Thursday thru Friday... Mostly fair this period with a ridge of
high pressure affecting the region. Some gusty winds early
Thursday will diminish by afternoon. Temperatures well below
normal Thu then a little below normal for Friday. Increasing
clouds are expected later Friday.

Friday night and Saturday... The wettest part of the long term
with a low pressure system moving north of the area and a cold
front expected to cross the region. Pops were raised from the
earlier fcst with high chc low likely pops now in the grids.

Temperatures will be close to normal Sat with higher humidity
levels too. The cold front will cross the area during the
afternoon, so showers are possible until after the front passes.

Gusty winds are possible sat, but nothing too serious.

Sunday thru Tuesday... Mostly fair weather is expected this
period, however a couple showers may occur across the northern
counties Mon night and Tuesday. High pressure from the west will
build in Mon and the move offshore tue. Temperatures will be
mostly below normal Sun Mon then rebound back to near normal for
tue.

Normal highs: phl mpo ged : 64 55 66
normal lows : phl mpo ged : 46 34 43

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Today...VFR conditions expected. Winds will shift from southwesterly
to westerly to west northwesterly through the day. Gusts around 25
kt or more will be possible, primarily between 15 and 00z. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly winds will
gradually diminish to near 10 kt overnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

thu thru fri...VFR expected. Gusty NW winds Thu morning.

Fri night sat... Sub-vfr possible with showers. Gusty winds sat.

Sat night Sunday...VFR expected. Gusty winds again Sunday.

Marine
Winds will be increasing, especially through the afternoon with gale
force gusts expected to develop by early this evening on all waters
except the upper delaware bay. There is a chance that gale force
gusts could develop a few hours earlier, but don't have enough
confidence at this time to move up the start time of the gale
warning. Gale force gusts should continue for most, if not all of
the overnight hours. On the upper delaware bay, expect small craft
advisory conditions through out the period.

Outlook...

thu: early gales will settle to SCA conditions then drop below SCA later
Thursday. Fair weather.

Thu night thru fri: sub-sca, but winds increase Fri late
afternoon. Fair.

Fri night thru sat. Showers. SCA conditions expected.

Sat night into Sunday..A continuation of SCA conditions with
some low-end gales possible. Fair weather.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Thursday for
paz054-055.

Nj... Freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
njz001.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz431-452>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 9 am edt Thursday for
anz452>455.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz450-451.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Thursday for
anz431-450-451.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm edt
Thursday for anz430.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'hara
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi37 min 58°F 53°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi25 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 68°F1018.5 hPa (-1.0)52°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi31 min W 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 1018.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi37 min 56°F 1017.2 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi37 min W 7 G 9.9 58°F 64°F1017.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi37 min W 6 G 7 56°F 1017.6 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi43 min W 7 G 9.9 56°F 1017.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi115 min S 1 54°F 1018 hPa51°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi43 min 55°F 69°F1018.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi35 min WNW 9.7 G 12 58°F 1018.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi37 min 71°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi37 min NW 5.1 G 7 56°F 1018.5 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi37 min NW 4.1 G 6 56°F 65°F1018.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi37 min NNW 5.1 G 6 57°F 71°F1017.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi115 min Calm 53°F 1018 hPa51°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi43 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 64°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi45 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast57°F51°F82%1017.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi31 minWNW 310.00 miFair58°F50°F75%1017.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F54°F86%1019 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N9
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N6N5N9NE6NW4N5N3NW7NW3W4CalmS3CalmS4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4CalmS5S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:04 PM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:06 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.61.41.210.80.70.70.811.21.21.21.10.90.70.60.50.60.711.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.