Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:57PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:15 PM EDT (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1030 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with tstms likely.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1030 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold will approach the waters today before passing through tonight. A pressure trough will remain nearby for Saturday and Sunday while high pressure positions itself just to our north and west. The high will move offshore early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181334
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
934 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west and move through the region
tonight into early Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday
through Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the region on
Wednesday followed by high pressure for the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Showers and thunderstorms over eastern nj will move offshore
this morning. These showers storms are producing locally heavy
rain, but are moving fairly quickly, helping to mitigate any
flooding. Additional showers and thunderstorms can develop
pretty much at any time today, but most of the area should
remain dry from late morning through early afternoon.

Will need breaks in the clouds during this time, which will
help destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon. Owing to strong
heating and anomalously high moisture content in the boundary
layer (surface dewpoints well into the 70s), forecast models
indicate a moderately unstable environment (sbcape of 2000-3000
j kg) to sustain strong convective updrafts this afternoon.

Storms are expected to initiate just ahead of the cold front
across the higher terrain in central and northeastern pa during
the mid afternoon. These storms are then expected to move
eastward into eastern pa late this afternoon and the i-95
corridor this evening. Convection may linger into the overnight
near the coast. Cams have come into much better agreement with
the above-mentioned timing of storms.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of the CWA for
this afternoon and evening. The watch does not include the
southern poconos (higher ffg) and southeastern nj into southern
de (higher FFG and greater uncertainty if storms maintain
intensity to produce excessive rainfall rates by the time they
move into our far southeastern zones late this evening or
overnight). Pwats are forecast to increase to between 2.25-2.5,
which is +2 to +3sd above climo for this time of year. While
storm motion should be fast enough to preclude widespread heavy
rainfall, upstream corfidi vectors show a potential for
convective training that could lead to locally heavy rainfall
totals. With nwp support from cams, there is a potential for
isolated rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches. The flash flood threat
may peak after sunset this evening as convection (and associated
cold pools) starts to weaken with the loss of heating. Storm
motion may subsequently decrease with high rainfall rates (2+
inches per hour) still occurring.

Spc has included most of the forecast area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Have added
damaging winds to the weather grids with that being the primary
severe thunderstorm threat. However, isolated large hail and
even a tornado is possible this afternoon and evening.

Today will feel very muggy with dewpoints rising into the mid 70s
and even near 80f across DELMARVA and far southern nj. Heat indices
are expected to peak into the mid 90s across the urban i-95 corridor
and near 100f in delmarva. Held off on a heat advisory but heat
indices will only be a few degrees below issuance criteria. Humid
conditions continue into tonight, especially along and east of i-95,
where forecast lows are in the mid 70s.

Short term Saturday
The cold front should be offshore by Saturday morning with all
precipitation having come to an end. As the upper trough pushes
through later Saturday, we should really start to see the dry air
filter into the area. Saturday will be a fairly nice day with the
sun shining across the region. Models are showing a slug of moisture
crossing the region as the upper trough moves through. However, it
appears to weaken as it moves over the mountains to our west and
peters out before reaching our area. We will continue to keep the
forecast mostly dry at this time, although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out later in the day Saturday. Best
chance for anything to reach the ground looks to be across the
northwestern zones so have included a slight chance for showers
later Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
High pressure will build in for Sunday and a period of relatively
nice weather should continue for the start of the week with the high
shifting offshore on Monday. Another cold front will approach the
region from the west on Tuesday, crossing the area on Wednesday.

Models continue to show a surface trough developing on Tuesday in
advance of the cold front. This trough, combined with a shortwave
moving through the mid levels, will spark off some convection on
Tuesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be accompany the
cold front on Wednesday, with the storms ending from west to east on
Wednesday evening. A few showers may linger early Thursday, mainly
along the coast. High pressure, accompanied by some cooler air, will
build down from canada and across our area for the end of the
week.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Widespread ifr MVFR CIGS across the terminals this morning
should gradually scatter out and give way toVFR conditions.

Bulk of shra tsra currently away from terminals, and although
showers can develop at any time this morning, the bulk of the
activity will hold off until late afternoon.

Showers and storms are expected to redevelop after 18z this
afternoon mainly in vicinity of western terminals (abe-rdg),
then move eastward through the i-95 terminals this evening
(between 23-03z) and eventually our eastern terminals (miv-acy)
late in the evening. A period of ifr restrictions are likely
when these storms move through.

Winds will predominately be out of the south today and tonight.

Speeds will generally be 10 kt or less. However, they could increase
to above 10 kt for a period this afternoon with occasional gusts up
to 20 kt possible. Much stronger winds are possible with storms.

Outlook...

Saturday... Fog possible early. Otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions
expected. Northwest to west winds around 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Westerly winds around 10
knots or less.

Monday and Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Southerly winds
around 10 knots or less.

Marine
A SCA was issued for the coastal atlantic waters and delaware bay
from late this morning through this evening. Despite less than ideal
mixing profiles in southerly flow (warm air above the relatively
cooler waters), 25 kt winds are only 200-300 ft off the deck. Deeper
mixing on land could easily transport these higher winds down to the
surface in our nearshore waters. Seas in the coastal waters are
forecast to increase to around 5 ft late this afternoon and evening.

Strong thunderstorms mainly this evening could contain locally gusty
winds, requiring special marine warnings.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected on the area waters through Tuesday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
forecast for today for de and nj shore, given increasing southerly
winds and seas.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for paz060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for njz001-007>010-012-013-015>019.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for dez001-002.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt
this evening for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Klein mps
short term... Meola
long term... Meola
aviation... Klein meola mps
marine... Klein meola mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi46 min 80°F 80°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi36 min SSW 7.8 G 12 81°F 1011.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi76 min S 9.9 G 11 79°F 80°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi46 min 86°F 1010.6 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 16 mi36 min S 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 1012 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi46 min SW 11 G 13 80°F 80°F1011.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi46 min SSW 4.1 G 6 81°F 1011 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi106 min S 5.1 75°F 1011 hPa71°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi46 min 85°F 81°F1012.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi36 min SSW 9.7 G 14 82°F 1012.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 7 83°F 83°F1010.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 14 81°F 1012.4 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 82°F 80°F1010.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi46 min SW 6 G 11 83°F 82°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 44 mi36 min SW 9.7 G 12 80°F 1011.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi46 min 85°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 11 80°F 82°F1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi31 minSW 77.00 miOvercast84°F77°F79%1011.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi82 minSSW 59.00 miOvercast84°F79°F85%1011.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi26 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S8S9S8S8SW6S6S8S6--S5S4S6S6S5S5S5S5SW7S9S11S11SW10SW6
1 day agoW5NW5W6CalmN4CalmCalmSE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4S4SW7
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN4NE3NE3CalmN3CalmNE3N3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:27 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:51 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.622.22.22.11.81.51.20.90.70.60.70.91.21.41.41.310.80.50.40.30.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:26 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.11.10.90.50-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.300.30.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.