Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:53PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 8:23 AM EDT (12:23 UTC) Moonrise 1:16PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 732 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 732 Am Edt Tue Apr 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach from the tennessee valley today into tonight before passing through Wednesday. High pressure will then move near the area Thursday. Another low pressure system may affect the waters by overnight Thursday into Friday. A cold front will pass through the waters Saturday and high pressure will return for Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday night and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240723
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
323 am edt Tue apr 24 2018

Synopsis
A low in the southeast will progress slowly northeastward through
the mid-atlantic region, bringing widespread rain to the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another low to the south may move
northeast near or off the east coast late this week. Broad high
pressure will build into the eastern united states this weekend into
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1035 mb high pressure remains anchored well south and east of cape
cod. Meanwhile, low pressure lies over the southeast u.S., and will
lift to the north and east throughout the day today.

The offshore high will be slow to depart today, and based on latest
model trends, seems to have an influence on how far north and east
the low will be able to make today. As a result, the latest models
seem to have slowed down the onset of precip associated with the
low.

00z NAM rgem gfs ECMWF and even the 00z hrrrx all seem to keep much
of nj dry until 00z, and only light precip through the DELMARVA and
southeast pa. As a result, went ahead and lowered pops across the
region for most of the day, and will hold off on bringing likely
pops into southwest portions of the CWA until towards the end of the
first forecast period.

Onshore flow will keep coastal areas much cooler than inland areas,
and highs will only be in the 50s for coastal nj de, and in the
lower 60s for much of the coastal plain of nj and interior portions
of the delmarva.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
High pressure over the western atlantic drifts out to sea this
evening, and then low pressure over the southeast lifts into the mid-
atlantic by midnight tonight, then continues to lift through the
delmarva by Wednesday morning, then continues to track to the north
and east and will be north of nyc by early Wednesday evening. As an
upper trough digs into the northeast, models indicating a weak
secondary low possibly forming over the mid-atlantic, and this low
lifts through the region during the day Wednesday.

Onshore flow ushers abundant low level moisture into the region
mainly from after midnight tonight through around daybreak
Wednesday, and this will be the window for potentially heavy rain.

Pwats will range from 1.25-1.5".

Showers generally taper off from south to north Wednesday
morning afternoon, but another round of showers is possible as that
weak secondary low lifts through the region.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Main forecast concern in the long-term period is the large model
disagreement remaining with a system's track from the southeast to
the western atlantic late this week and potential impacts, if any,
in the northern mid-atlantic.

The system affecting the area on Wednesday will be on its way out
Wednesday night. At 00z Thursday, the surface low will be in the
vicinity of new york city, with lingering showers possible as
the main vort MAX pushes east through the northern mid-atlantic
and adjacent new england. There is actually quite a bit of
disagreement regarding the track of the vort max, with the gfs
considerably farther north than most of the other deterministic
models solutions. Generally excluded it for sensible weather
Wednesday night, with the result being higher pops most of the
night (though any rainfall would be light). There may be some
isolated showers in the poconos that linger through Thursday,
but generally have low to unmentionable pops after 12z Thursday
for now. Nevertheless, a farther south track of the vort max
would necessitate higher pops in this region through the day
(and increased cloudiness).

Not a lot of cold air upstream of the system, and the cold advection
generally ceases after 12z Thursday, so MAX temperatures on Thursday
look seasonable. Agreement among statistical guidance is below
average (and remains so through the long term). Used a bias-
corrected blend of raw operational guidance for temperatures
Wednesday night through Saturday, given the rather variable output
among guidance in general and the fairly changeable conditions
during this period.

Difficult forecast Thursday night, as models are all over the place
with a surface low moving through the southeastern u.S. This low
will be tied to a vort MAX in the mid-south on Thursday lifting
northeastward Thursday night as an upstream positively-tilted trough
digs into the mississippi valley. The track of the downstream vort
max is highly sensitive to the speed of the upstream trough, with
the GFS slower, allowing for a sharper turn to the northeast (and a
closer track to our region). The ECMWF is stronger but much faster
with the southern-stream portion of the mississippi valley trough,
and this kicks its simulated surface low farther offshore. The ecmwf
keeps any precipitation tied to the low in southern eastern portions
of the CWA late Thursday night and Friday. Notably, the icon and cmc
also have drier, more progressive, and somewhat shallower solutions.

The GFS indicates rainfall of a quarter to three quarters of an inch
would be possible across most of the area with a direct hit.

The discrepancies in solutions necessitate keeping pops rather low
(generally below 50 percent) across the area during this period
(given the tip of the scales to a drier solution), but I think
maintaining higher than climatology pops is warranted, especially
near the coast. Implications on temperatures are profound, with a
closer track of the system meaning cooler cloudier conditions. Large
errors with temps sky cover winds are possible this period, owing to
the array of solutions apparently feasible.

Thereafter, the northern-stream vort MAX digs into the great lakes,
new england, and southeast canada. An attendant cold front will move
slowly through the northeast on Saturday. Think the northern cwa
will be close enough to the vort MAX (spatiotemporally) to see some
instability showers as surface heating allows for increased lapse
rates during the day and enhanced convergence (via orographic
effects in addition to the larger-scale front) provides the
necessary source of lift to generate precipitation. Kept pops for
most of the area Friday night and Saturday, with a diurnal maximum
Saturday afternoon, particularly north of the i-76 corridor.

Rainfall amounts should be light, and showers should diminish
rapidly after sunset Saturday night. Again, all of this hinges on
the proximity of the vort MAX to the area, so there is a decent
chance of nothing precip-wise during this period.

High pressure builds into the eastern u.S. Sunday through Tuesday
with dry conditions through this period. Some cooling will occur
Sunday given the origins of the high (and trough passage in the
northeast), but a quick warmup will occur thereafter as midlevel
ridging amplifies rapidly as it becomes anchored over the eastern
half of the country. Temperatures should return to seasonal by
Monday and likely much warmer than that the following days.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions will begin the day across the TAF sites
through this afternoon. MVFR CIGS lift from south to north late in
the day. Rain will also be moving in from the south late in the
afternoon. East winds 10-15 kt throughout, with 20-25 kt gusts
at kacy kmiv kilg kphl.

Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions in rain and fog. East winds 10-15 kt,
diminishing to less than 10 kt late.

Wednesday... Rain ends from south to north in the morning. Scattered
showers persist through the afternoon. Flight categories improve to
vfr late in the day. East winds less than 10 kt become lgt vrb in
the middle of the day, then shift west in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: lingering local sub-vfr conditions possible in
the evening with scattered showers, but improvement toVFR will
gradually occur with time. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 kts.

Low confidence.

Thursday: probableVFR, but sct-bkn CIGS around 4000-5000 feet
possible during the day. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 kts with
occasional gusts 20-25 kts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday: increasing cloudiness, with a slight
chance of showers, especially south of phl. Some potential for sub-
vfr, but confidence is low as the track of the associated system is
unclear at this time. Light and variable winds Thursday night are
anticipated to become southerly on Friday.

Friday night and Saturday: predominantlyVFR, with a slight chance
of showers north of phl during the day. Winds changing from south to
west or even northwest on Saturday, potentially with a few gusts
during the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Small craft advisory conditions develop this afternoon on
all waters as a tight pressure gradient forms between departing high
pressure over the western atlantic waters and low pressure
approaching from the southeast. Winds gusting to 25-30 kt expected
on all waters from late this afternoon through around midnight
tonight, then winds diminish on de bay late. For the ocean, strong
winds continue through tonight, and although winds diminish to 15-20
kt by Wednesday morning, seas remain elevated and above SCA levels
through the day Wednesday. Vsby restrictions in moderate to locally
heavy rain and fog expected from this evening through Wednesday
morning, then scattered showers possible through the day Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday: seas over the atlantic should remain
above advisory criteria, but winds will likely be below criteria
everywhere. Some lingering showers Wednesday night, but any
visibility restrictions should improve Wednesday night.

Thursday night and Friday: a chance for rain and visibility
restrictions, though confidence is low. Winds seas likely below
advisory criteria.

Friday night and Saturday: winds seas below criteria, with fair
weather on Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 am edt Thursday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 5 am edt Wednesday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi53 min 54°F 42°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi83 min E 12 G 15 53°F 53°F1027 hPa43°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi53 min 54°F 1026 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi53 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 52°F 55°F1026.8 hPa
FSNM2 24 mi53 min E 8.9 G 9.9 53°F 1026.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi53 min E 8 G 8.9 53°F 1026.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi113 min E 2.9 53°F 1026 hPa43°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 27 mi43 min ESE 14 G 16 54°F 1026 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi53 min 53°F 55°F1026.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi53 min ESE 5.1 G 6 53°F 56°F1026.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi53 min SE 18 G 21 54°F 1025.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi53 min ENE 4.1 G 7 55°F 55°F1025.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi53 min E 15 G 17 54°F 53°F1024.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi113 min E 6 51°F 1027 hPa46°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi53 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 54°F1028 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi48 minESE 97.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F63%1026.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi29 minE 710.00 miOvercast56°F46°F70%1026.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi38 minESE 9 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F42°F67%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3E7E6SE3S6S6S6SE12
G18
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1 day agoE5NE3E3SE7SE5SW6W4SE9SW7SW8S8SE3SE4E3SE4S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW5N7N6W4W4W3N5N7W6NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
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Tue -- 12:43 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.41.31.10.80.60.40.30.40.50.91.21.51.61.61.41.210.70.50.40.40.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.60.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.300.40.70.80.80.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.