Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MD

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Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:37PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 11:50 PM EDT (03:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 1037 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build from the tennessee valley toward the mid- atlantic this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD
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location: 38.93, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260145
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
945 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain to our southwest Wednesday and Thursday.

The high will remain there into Friday as well, but by Friday a mid-
level disturbance will also pass just north of the region. An upper
level trough and surface frontal system will slowly approach from
the north over the weekend, with a cold front likely moving through
on Sunday. High pressure is expected to build back in from the
northwest early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Weak cold front continues to work its way offshore. A few
sprinkles and even a light shower passed across sussex county,
nj, but has since dissipated this evening. Drier air will
continue to infiltrate the region, providing for a refreshing
night with a break from the higher humidity. Lows will be in the
60s for the most part across the area. Winds will decrease back
to around 5 knots overnight. Some patchy fog is possible in the
river valleys and near the coast as radiational cooling takes
place. This should burn off shortly after sunrise.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Some patchy fog is possible in the river valleys and near along
the coast in the morning, but this should burn off by 8 am. Fair
weather will continue Wednesday across our region. Weak high
pressure will build south to north while upper heights also
build overhead. Overall a dry day is expected. Some of the
models are depicting some showers tstms across NW pa and ny that
may track SE towards the southern poconos during the late
afternoon. Held off of adding these to the grids at this moment,
but there is a chance for a quick shower and or thundershower
across the northern counties tomorrow afternoon. Most showers
and thunderstorms will have a difficult time progressing east of
the appalachian plateau with northwesterly downslope flow
dominating.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Overview...

a typical summertime pattern takes hold over the CONUS as we close
out the month of june. An upper level flow that is initially fairly
zonal will become more amplified as a trough digging into the west
helps force the building of a downstream ridge over the central us.

This ridge will initially extend to the east coast on its eastern
flank, with high pressure centered south of the mid-atlantic. This
will lead to hot weather and a potential heatwave for the end of the
work week. Heading into the weekend, changes occur as a trough
dropping south out of canada will act to erode the eastern reaches
of the ridge. This will bring some unsettled conditions for the
weekend. By early next week, the trough pulls away, and high
pressure should build in from the northwest. This should keep Monday
and most of Tuesday dry with a frontal system potentially
approaching beyond then.

Dailies...

Wednesday night-Thursday night... Dry conditions and lows generally
a little above average Wednesday night. High pressure centered just
to our southwest and rising mid-level heights will yield a warm day
Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. 25.12z nam
indicated thunderstorm development over southeast pa and DELMARVA in
the afternoon, but other guidance is far less bullish. Given the
synoptic pattern just described, believe the NAM is in error and
expecting dry conditions to prevail. A dry night as well with
overnight lows also a little on the warm side of average, very
similar to the prior night.

Friday-Friday night... A shortwave will pass to our north Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Nothing too impressive, and in fact it
looks to be deamplifying and shearing out as it approaches, not a
surprise considering the ridge will be continuing to build Friday
with high pressure remaining to our south. Friday looks to be the
warmest day of the week, with many locations likely to crack 90 and
some mid 90s possible in the urban i95 corridor. Dew points look to
stay mainly in the mid 60s, so a bit sticky but not oppressively
humid. The very warm and marginally humid air combined with modest
lift from the shortwave will lead to the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms developing late in the day and overnight. Currently
does not look like anything too well organized, but scattered
showers and storms will be possible for the late afternoon, evening,
and overnight especially in the northwestern half of the area.

Saturday-Sunday... As mentioned, a trough will be dropping down from
out of quebec and into new england over the weekend. Weak low
pressure and an attendant cold front will exist at the surface, and
this system will begin to approach the area, moving almost due
south. On Saturday, with temperatures remaining warm ahead of the
front and dew points climbing to near 70 in developing southwest
flow, it appears a pre-frontal trough could serve as a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. By
Sunday, the actual cold front approaches, and in fact that may pass
through as early as Sunday morning. If the timing of the front is
slower and we heat up again on Sunday, we would see another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Cannot rule out the potential for some
stronger storms and locally heavy rain over the weekend, though the
signals for either aren't overly strong. A good deal of fine tuning
will be needed here, as the biggest uncertainty right now relates to
the timing of the frontal system. Models struggling a bit with an
anticyclonic wave break of the ridge over the central us and how it
will impact the canadian trough to its east, which will have impacts
on the surface low moving offshore and intensifying. Not expecting a
weekend washout, but scattered showers and storms will be possible
both days at least in parts of the area.

Monday-Tuesday... The trough to our northeast will slide away early
next week, and weak high pressure looks to build in. Temperatures
should be seasonably warm Monday as the trough and associated cold
pool pull away, and am confident in dry conditions with the high
building in. Fairly wide spread in guidance by Tuesday, though warm
and dry conditions will probably continue for at least most of the
day. However, it appears we will have a frontal system approaching
by later Tuesday or Wednesday as the ridge to the west will have
flattened out from the wave breaking evolution over the weekend,
opening the door for that system to track a little closer to us.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions expected with only some high level
cloudiness expected. West to northwest winds will decrease to less
than 5 knots in most areas.

Wednesday...VFR expected with mostly sunny skies during the morning
and some daytime CU during the afternoon. Winds will be mostly NW to
w at 5 to 10 knots. There may be a sea breeze affecting kacy during
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday night... VFR. Winds very light
but mainly from the west.

Friday-Friday night... MainlyVFR, but a shower or thunderstorm is
possible from late afternoon through the overnight especially
north of phl.

Saturday-Sunday... VFR overall, however, showers and thunderstorms
are possible both days. West-southwest winds of 5 to 10 kt Saturday
becoming northwest Sunday with gusts to 20 kt possible.

Marine
A cold front has crossed the waters as of late afternoon. Winds will
remain W to NW overnight at 5 to 10 knots. Fair weather is expected.

Wednesday, a continuation of fair weather with northwest winds
around 10 knots during the morning and then light onshore winds for
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Friday... Sub-sca conditions with light
winds and seas 1 to 2 ft.

Friday night-Sunday... Sub-sca conditions expected to continue with
seas 2 to 3 ft. A risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms exists
for much of this period. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt Saturday.

Northwesterly winds develop Sunday with gusts to 20 kt possible.

Rip currents...

a low risk of rip current development will continue into Wednesday
as winds turn very light and waves in the surf zone diminish to
only around one foot.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Davis o'hara
short term... Davis o'hara
long term... O'brien
aviation... Davis johnson o'brien o'hara
marine... Davis o'brien o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi50 min 80°F 61°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi32 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 78°F1014.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 9 mi50 min W 11 G 12 80°F 77°F1015 hPa (+1.5)62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 11 mi50 min 80°F 1013.6 hPa (+1.6)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 6 79°F 80°F1014 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi50 min WNW 7 G 8 79°F 1014.1 hPa (+1.7)
FSNM2 24 mi92 min W 11 G 11 81°F 1013.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi50 min 79°F 80°F1013.7 hPa (+1.3)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi50 min NNW 5.1 G 7 82°F 79°F1013.7 hPa (+1.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 37 mi50 min NW 6 G 7 79°F 1014.7 hPa (+1.5)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 6 80°F 80°F1014.9 hPa (+1.9)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 43 mi50 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 78°F1013.8 hPa (+1.5)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 80°F1013.7 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi70 minWNW 710.00 miFair79°F64°F61%1013.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD11 mi56 minno data10.00 miFair82°F62°F51%1014.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD14 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair77°F69°F79%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN10N5NW4NW4NW7W7SW7S7S10S7SW4S4S6S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.31.110.90.80.911.21.41.51.51.41.210.70.60.50.50.70.91.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.3-00.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.