Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:32PM Monday July 24, 2017 1:52 PM PDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:38AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Point Arena To Point Reyes To 10 Nm- 926 Am Pdt Mon Jul 24 2017
Today..S winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog late in the morning.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ500 926 Am Pdt Mon Jul 24 2017
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A weak low pressure system off the california coast will result in light to moderate southerly flow along the coast. Northerly winds will return midweek as low pressure moves inland and high pressure builds over the eastern pacific.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, CA
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location: 38.95, -123.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Eureka, CA
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Fxus66 keka 241157
afdeka
area forecast discussion
national weather service eureka ca
457 am pdt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today for locations east of
a gasquet, to willow creek, to peanut line. Thunderstorm potential
will increase somewhat in potential and coverage each day through
Wednesday. Otherwise, look for coastal clouds and patchy fog the
next few nights and into the morning hours, with seasonably warm
temperatures expected. For the remainder of the week, high pressure
will reestablish itself across the region, with temperatures
increasing by this weekend.

Discussion
Short term
(today through Wednesday)
will thunderstorms form over the next few days remains the forecast
challenge. The answer in short is yes, they will form, with
convective potential increasing each day. In fact, a few showers and
an isolated thunderstorm formed this morning around 1 am over the
southern outer waters, with an altocumulus field (accas)which looks
to be tied to a small vort MAX rotating around the parent low, which
is currently spinning about 60 nautical miles west of point arena.

Additionally, another piece of energy is approaching the region as
it pinwheels around the low, with another pretty extensive accas
field moving westward from the northern sacramento valley. Here,
cloud top cooling has been rapid, with temperatures dropping around
27 deg. C half hour. Thus far, no elevated cores have been detected
on radar, nor any lightning strikes. However, convection developed
in about the same time frame earlier offshore. Soundings from just
northwest of redding show moistening and rapid destabilization
through the remainder of the morning, with this spreading westward
towards weaverville with time into the afternoon. Given the very
large inverted-v signature, dewpoint depression over 30 degrees f,
the mention of dry thunderstorms was added to the forecast. This is
highly conditional, but based on what was observed earlier this
morning, the additional vort maxes rotating through this
morning afternoon, and signatures seen in the satellite imagery, it
seemed like a prudent move.

Farther west and north, the NAM model has come on board with the
gfs, showing thunderstorms developing near the somes bar area,
moving westward. The 00z run had it moving into del norte county
after 8 pm, while the new 6z run delays it to a few hours before
sunrise. Conversely, the 00z GFS had convection from northeastern
humboldt into del norte county developing after 5 pm. The current
run maintains that general scenario, while also trying to develop a
separate area from southern humboldt into northern mendocino
counties. Given this run is an outlier compared to the other its
previous run and various other models, we didn't bite on this, as
the "game is a foot', not too much change was made to the forecast
for today.

One thing the majority of the models do agree on is a much better
chance for storms to develop during the day tomorrow, lingering into
Wednesday. Soundings from the GFS nam also continue to indicate good
instability, with the main change being seen in the NAM as it has
increased its various convective indices. As better forcing arrives
as the low edges closer these days, the possibility for one or two
strong storms does exist given the very good parameters seen in the
data. However, storm movement will become increasingly slow each
day, as the low moves closer.

Long term
(Wednesday evening through Sunday)
with all the action being in the short term portion of the forecast,
the remainder of the week will be more tame. In general, ridging
aloft will build across northwest california, with increasing
heights aloft leading to a gradual warming area-wide, with dry
conditions expected. Pd

Aviation
Marine stratus is present along the coast this morning, and as a
result, acv and cec are experiencing ifr ceilings and visibility.

Persistence suggests that low clouds will clear this afternoon,
and then redevelop overnight. Elsewhere, hi-res model guidance
shows an increase in boundary layer rh at uki late tonight, and
nam forecast soundings depict thermodynamic profiles supportive of
a shallow cloud layer near the surface. Finally, an upper low
positioned offshore from mendocino county will yield an
environment that is supportive of isolated thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of nwrn ca. However, confidence in
storm occurrence at any particular TAF site is too low at this
time to include in the morning forecast issuance.

Marine
An isolated thunderstorm developed over the southern outer
waters early Monday morning. This activity has since dissipated,
with the greatest probability for storm development shifting
inland by Monday afternoon. Otherwise, a thermal trough of low
pressure over interior ca combined with high pressure over the
nern pacific will continue to support northerly gale force winds
over the northern outer waters through late tonight. These winds
will also aid in the development of large steep seas over the
southern outer and northern inner waters. The pressure gradient is
forecast to slacken somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds
subsequently weakening... At least temporarily. Despite the
relatively weaker winds, small craft northerlies will still be
likely over the outer waters through much of the week.

Fire weather
The main concern lies with our thunderstorm potential over the next
few days, especially today where dry thunderstorms are expected,
should a storm form. Otherwise, 100 and 1000 hour fuels are more
conducive south of highway 299, compared to further north. Low-
level fuels such as brush grass is conducive across the entire area
though, so any thunderstorm will pose a concern with its attendant
lightning threat. The good news is moisture will continue to
increase each day through Wednesday, which may help with regard to
these concerns, as the storms will become increasingly wet each day
where they do form. For the remainder of the week, dry conditions
are expected for all of our neck of the woods, with increasing
afternoon highs lower relative minimum humidities a good bet. Pd

Eka watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Northwest california coastal waters... Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Tuesday for pzz450-475.

Gale warning until 5 am pdt Tuesday for pzz470.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 3 mi53 min SW 4.1 G 7 55°F 52°F1012.6 hPa (+0.7)
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 24 mi43 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA31 mi57 minSE 1110.00 miFair83°F53°F36%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE14
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SE11SE10S8SW7NE5S3CalmCalmS3S3S3CalmSE5S4S4CalmS3CalmSE5E5SE10SE11
1 day agoE4E5NW8W9W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm3CalmE4SE5SE11
2 days agoN10N8
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N9NW8N8N8N5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3E3E4CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California
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Point Arena
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Mon -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM PDT     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:15 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:24 PM PDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.86.14.831.2-0.3-1.2-1.3-0.60.62.13.54.654.94.23.32.4222.63.74.95.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arena, California Current
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Point Arena
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:50 AM PDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:45 AM PDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:01 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:26 PM PDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:42 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:33 PM PDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-0.3-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.5-1.1-0.50.20.91.31.41.20.70-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.20.711

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Eureka, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.