Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape May, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:14 AM EST (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 308 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft, then 2 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight, then 2 ft or less after midnight.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ400 308 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Cold high pressure will build into the northeast today and Friday before moving offshore this weekend. A surface low and associated fronts will move near or through the region on Saturday and Saturday night, followed by another system on Monday and Monday night. High pressure is expected to nose in from the southwest by midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape May, NJ
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location: 38.95, -74.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220853
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
353 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure will build into the northeast today and Friday
before moving offshore this weekend. A surface low and associated
fronts will move near or through the region on Saturday and Saturday
night, followed by another system on Monday and Monday night. High
pressure is expected to nose in from the southwest by midweek.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
An unseasonably cold arctic airmass continues to advect into the
area on a N NW flow with the arctic high centered over northern
ontario. By morning, generally expect lows in the 20s from the i-95
corridor S E and in the teens farther north and west except single
digits in the southern poconos.

Heading into the day today, blustery NW winds continue as the high
continues to move S E toward the lower great lakes with a fairly
strong gradient persisting between this feature and low pressure
over atlantic canada. 850 mb temps averaging around -15c indicate
highs struggling to reach the freezing mark. Expect highs generally
in the upper 20s to low 30s along and S E of the i-95 corridor and
in the upper teens to mid 20s N W of here. N NW winds around 10-20
with gusts to 25 mph will make it feel even colder though with the
wind chill. The good news is skies will be mainly sunny.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
For tonight, winds diminish as the high moves in right over the
region. This will set up ideal conditions for radiational cooling
under clear skies and expect lows generally in the single digits and
teens... Coldest north and warmest south. Lows for urban areas in the
i-95 corridor should generally be in the mid teens.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
The medium-range forecast features the demise of the arctic cold by
this weekend, a couple of wet systems Saturday (night) and
Monday(ish), and a cold breezy-to-windy Tuesday and Wednesday.

The cold surface ridge bringing the thanksgiving shivers will be
straddling the area Friday morning with a slow movement offshore by
Friday evening. Although surface flow will remain light, midlevel
ridging combined with warmer backward trajectories should allow for
a warmer (albeit still anomalously cold) day. Used a consensus blend
for highs, which followed forecast continuity fairly well.

To the southwest, a surface low will be developing Friday night as a
midlevel vort MAX moves quickly eastward from the central plains to
the tennessee valley by Saturday afternoon. With favorable left-exit
region upper-level divergence across the east coast and warm
advection downstream of the vort max, widespread precipitation
should develop to our west south Friday night and move in by
Saturday afternoon or evening. Models remain discouragingly
disagreeable with the evolution of the midlevel surface phenomena,
particularly the strength of the wave low that develops in the mid-
atlantic, which is tied strongly to interaction of the southern-
stream perturbation with troughing to the north. The 00z ecmwf
remains most aggressive with this northern surface low, developing
considerable (1-2 inch) rainfall across the area Saturday night. The
cmc GFS have trended stronger, which provides increased confidence
of the QPF the ECMWF has been suggesting. Meanwhile, the cmc has
sped up substantially, which suggests precipitation could start as a
wintry mix (generally freezing rain sleet) should this materialize.

However, as previous forecast discussions have indicated, this seems
like a low-probability scenario, as models generally are too quick
to bring in precipitation toward a retreating (strong) surface high.

Can't remove mention of this Saturday morning yet, though, given the
latest cmc and a sample of ensemble members continuing to suggest
this threat. Warm moist advection should modify the remaining cold
quickly on Saturday, so the main event (Saturday afternoon and
night) will be all liquid.

Aside from some lingering showers in the north on Sunday, the bulk
of the day should be dry for the cwa. Midlevel ridging will briefly
take hold downstream of the next strong vort MAX in the central
plains. This should allow Sunday to be mild, and I raised
temperatures somewhat above consensus guidance. This should be the
warmest day of the period.

The aforementioned second system surges eastward into the great
lakes region Sunday night but will stall as it approaches polar-
latitude blocking to the northeast. A midlevel jet streak will blast
east-northeastward, allowing for triple-point low development
somewhere near southern new england or the eastern mid-atlantic on
Monday or Monday night. Models are in poor agreement on
timing location intensity of this secondary low, but the overall
impacts to our area look reasonably similar despite these
discrepancies. A fairly quick-hitting shot of rain is expected
Monday and or Monday night, with the ECMWF trending stronger slower
with this system, as expected. The cmc GFS look awfully progressive
still, especially with the blocking flow to the north, so I weighted
the timing of precipitation more closely to the ecmwf, though it
would suggest some precipitation may linger well into the evening in
north east portions of the area (not completely sold on that yet).

Another decent QPF event is possible, with potential for 1+ inch
rainfall in portions of the area.

As colder air advects into the region on the upstream side of the
intensifying low lifting into the northeast, precipitation will
become more showery in the northwest flow, with temperatures
becoming cold enough for snow showers in the northern cwa. This may
linger through Wednesday given the low's inability to lift northward
into the polar latitudes.

Perhaps more concerning are the winds Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
tightening pressure gradient as the low intensifies and an upstream
surface high to the southwest approaches the area. This should
provide a lengthy period of gusty west to northwest winds, which
will feel quite blustery with the cold air filtering into the region.

Aside from the aforementioned showers that may linger in the north
Tuesday possibly into Wednesday, it should be primarily dry with
below-average temperatures during this period.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. NW winds 10-15 with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR. Northerly winds diminishing to 5-10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Friday:VFR with light winds. High confidence.

Friday night: increasing cloudiness, though conditions may stayVFR
most of the night, especially north east of phl. Light east winds,
though possibly approaching 10 kts or so near the coast. Low
confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: periods of sub-vfr with rain likely.

East or southeast winds 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts switching to
west or northwest late Saturday night. High confidence.

Sunday: improvement toVFR expected, though showers may linger in
northeast pa northern nj in the morning. Northwest winds 5 to 15
kts, possibly with a few gusts to 20 kts or so. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night and Monday: increasing chances for sub-vfr with time,
with rain likely on Monday. Winds becoming east or southeast 5 to 15
kts with higher gusts near the coast, possibly switching to south or
west late Monday. Moderate confidence on overall evolution, but low
confidence with timing.

Marine
A small craft advisory remains in effect through the day today as
winds continue to gust up to 30 knots with seas up to 5 feet. Winds
and seas diminish below SCA levels tonight.

Outlook...

Friday and Friday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Saturday and Saturday night: southeast to southwest winds increase
to advisory levels, with seas building to 5 feet or more. Rain
likely.

Sunday: sub-advisory northwest winds probable, but seas may be slow
to subside below advisory levels.

Sunday night and Monday: east to southeast winds increase with time
and may become southwest or west late Monday. Advisory-level winds
likely by Monday, and gales possible after the switchover to
southwest west. Seas likely near above advisory criteria through the
period. Rain likely on Monday.

Climate
There is the potential for near record low maximum and low
minimum temperatures for the thanksgiving holiday. Here are the
record coldest high and low temperatures across our climate
sites for thanksgiving day, accounting for the change in date.

(note, these are not records for november 22 itself):
thanksgiving record low minimum:
atlantic city, nj: 10 (1989)
allentown, pa: 16 (2000)
georgetown, de: 20 (1996)
mount pocono, pa: 1 (1903)
philadelphia, pa: 20 (1901)
reading, pa: 15 (1903)
trenton, nj: 20 (1930)
wilmington , de: 18 (1996)
thanksgiving record low maximum:
atlantic city, nj: 31 (1996)
allentown, pa: 27 (1996)
georgetown, de: 27 (1989)
mount pocono, pa: 20 (1901)
philadelphia, pa: 27 (1901)
reading, pa: 30 (1989)
trenton, nj: 30 (1930)
wilmington , de: 29 (1996)
here is a list of the record low temperatures for november 22
and november 23:
site november 22 november 23
allentown 15 2014 16 2000, 1964
atlantic city 16 2014, 1964 10 1989
georgetown 16 1987, 1969 16 1984, 1964
mount pocono 5 1969 6 2000, 1964
philadelphia 14 1980 10 1880
reading 16 1969 16 1972
trenton 15 1880 16 1880
wilmington 17 1964 17 1964

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz431-
450>455.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz430.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Fitzsimmons
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms fitzsimmons
marine... Cms fitzsimmons
climate... Mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 4 mi45 min NNE 5.1 G 12 31°F 47°F1028 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 12 mi45 min 1028.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 17 mi45 min N 20 G 26 35°F 49°F1028.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 31 mi165 min NW 2.9 31°F 1026 hPa17°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 35 mi85 min 56°F5 ft1026.2 hPa (+2.5)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi45 min N 21 G 25 30°F 48°F1028.4 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi45 min 27°F 50°F1028.9 hPa
OCSM2 43 mi195 min 2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 44 mi45 min N 13 G 17 35°F 52°F1028.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 46 mi45 min NW 6 24°F 1028 hPa6°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ4 mi20 minN 10 G 1410.00 miFair29°F15°F56%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmSW6SW8SW7SW6SW5SW4S5SE5SE5S7S4S7S10SW7SW4S4CalmS3CalmCalmSW4W7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape May Harbor, New Jersey
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Cape May Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:15 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:59 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 PM EST     4.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.10.82.13.54.65.35.44.83.62.210.1-0.3012.33.54.34.74.53.52.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:34 AM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:52 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:30 PM EST     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:13 PM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.1-0.40.41.11.61.61.30.7-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.1-0.40.41.11.41.30.90.2-0.5-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.