Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Cape May, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:04 AM EDT (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 1:48AMMoonset 12:33PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft early, then 2 ft or less. Scattered tstms with a chance of showers early. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..Wind variable less than 5 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 314 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning. A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of the upcoming week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Cape May, NJ
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location: 38.97, -74.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260813
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
413 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will continue to move away from the area this morning.

A cold front attached to low pressure across canada will move
through the region later today. High pressure will settle across the
area Monday then another disturbance will be across the area
Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected for the middle and end of
the upcoming week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The area will reside in the warm sector for most of the daylight
hours before a cold front approaches late this afternoon. West of i-
95 a stratus deck is evident on satellite imagery observations and
expect this to expand eastward through the early morning period.

This stratus should burn off sometime this morning given a drier
westerly flow and strong late may sun.

Once the stratus burns off we should be off to the races as far as
temperatures go, with just about everywhere getting to at least 80
and many locations (particularly DELMARVA and the i-95 corridor)
making a run at 90. Dewpoints should generally be in the low to mid
60s although there is some uncertainty based on the mixing potential
(initially we will be fairly dry aloft).

The big story today will be the chance of convection this afternoon
into this evening , with strong-severe storms possible. We should be
capped for the morning and early afternoon so not expecting any
storms before about 18z. As the capping erodes (from NW to se) we
could see isolated-scattered storms develop over primarily the
northern half of the forecast area in association with the
prefrontal trough. The environment at that time is not particularly
favorable for severe convection with SBCAPE generally around or
under 1000 j kg, however given 40 kts of shear some locally strong
storms will be possible (given decent low-lvl dewpoint depressions
downburst winds will be the main threat with this early activity).

The more favorable timing for any severe storms looks to be late
this afternoon into this evening as the cold front shortwave
approach (this is detailed in the short term section).

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The best period for severe storms looks to be the 21-03z time frame
ahead of along the cold front and convectively enhanced shortwave.

Guidance has storms developing upstream and then growing upscale as
they approach the area late this afternoon into the early evening.

The best convective parameter space (largely a function of low-lvl
moisture) will reside over the southern half of the area (more or
less philadelphia southward), where MLCAPE of around 1500 j kg will
combine with 40 kts or so of westerly shear to create the potential
for an organized cluster of storms with damaging winds being the
biggest threat (but hail is also possible). Low-lvl shear will be
particularly unimpressive (low-lvl flow in general will be quite
weak) so the tornado threat is negligible.

Of note, some models (particularly the nam-nest) continue to
advertise MLCAPE well in excess of 2000 j kg over much of the
western part of the forecast area, which if realized would result
in a more widespread severe threat. Currently think this is unlikely
to occur as its pre-convective dewpoints seem too high given
westerly flow and mixing of drier air from aloft... Consequently
think the hrrr instability will be closer to reality.

The front will move through this evening with drying behind it. This
is not a particularly impressive front from a thermal or kinematic
perspective so drying will be gradual and precipitation will likely
continue into the overnight. Storms will wane from north to south
with the severe threat diminishing after 03z as the surface-based
instability diminishes. Given abundant cloud cover and high
dewpoints overnight mins will be warm (mid to upper 60s outside of
the far north where upper 50s lower 60s will be possible)

Long term Monday through Saturday
A rather changeable pattern across the area this upcoming week with
alternating days of (mostly) dry weather and some weak systems which
will bring some sct showers and tstms. Right now, Mon Wed Fri are
probably going to be the days with the lowest pops. Although there
could be some morning showers across DELMARVA early mon. On wed, a
couple showers psbl far N w.

Tue will see low pressure and a front affecting the area, so showers
and some tstms are expected with the greatest pops (likely) across
the NRN areas. The models become somewhat varied by Thu fri, but the
possibility for some showers will be retained with the GFS and ec
showing some rains arriving late thu.

Some much above normal temperatures will arrive during the middle of
the week with upper 80s and low 90s in many areas. Up until then,
above normal readings (4 to 6 degrees above) will be over the area
mon tue. The much above normal will probably break late next week,
with readings back near normal for Fri sat.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Low-MVFR stratus should scatter out around 11-13z, withVFR
conditions generally prevailing through the day. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon particularly after
18z with lowered flight categories possible. Winds will generally be
from the west around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15-20kts.

Tonight... Showers thunderstorms possible in the evening, however
vfr conditions under mid-lvl cloudiness expected to prevail. Winds
shifting more northerly overnight.

Outlook...

mon tue...VFR much of the time. A few showers early Monday and tue.

Wed thu...VFR wed. Sct showers later Thu with lower conditions
psbl.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night with seas
generally around 3 feet and gusts up to around 15 kts. Thunderstorms
with gusty erratic winds will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening.

Outlook...

generally sub-sca thru the period. There is the possibility for
some SCA gusts later thu, but confid in this is low attm. Sct
showers and tstms Mon morning, Tue and thu.

Rip currents...

the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low through
this evening. The low risk may continue into Monday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Carr
short term... Carr
long term... O'hara
aviation... Carr o'hara
marine... Carr o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 0 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 6 65°F 63°F1015.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 8 mi46 min 1015.8 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 8 69°F 60°F1015.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi46 min S 8 G 8.9 67°F 68°F1015 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 38 mi74 min SSW 18 G 21 66°F 62°F4 ft1015.2 hPa (-2.0)66°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 39 mi46 min 63°F 60°F1015.2 hPa
OCSM2 44 mi184 min 3 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi52 min WSW 11 G 14 69°F 63°F1016.5 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 47 mi94 min S 8.9 63°F 1015 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ4 mi68 minS 44.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze0°F0°F%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E9SE10SE9SE11SE8S10SE11SE11SE10SE14SE14SE12
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W754N3CalmE5E6CalmNE3E8E10E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape May Canal, Cape May, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 01:38 PM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.40.70.80.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.