Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greensboro, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:29 PM EST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1233 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front is pressing east of the area this morning with high pressure returning later today through early Friday. Another cold front will approach late Friday into Saturday before passing through Saturday night. High pressure will return for Sunday and Monday. A small craft advisory may be needed for the waters late Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greensboro, MD
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location: 38.97, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 221950
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
250 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will begin to build eastward into the region tonight
and move over the region Thursday and Friday. This will be followed
by a cold frontal passage on Saturday. Another area of high pressure
will build into the region for the early part of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1150a and 1230 pm estf: our new 330 pm office guidance has been
issued with the 1150 am and 1230 pm estf updates. There may
be some minor modifications at 330 pm.

This afternoon... Raised temps a bit per obs and added 5mph to
the gusts (generally 25-35 mph range). Showers now ending nj
coast. Cold air advection developing nicely. Considerable
cloudiness parts of NE pa and NW nj but otherwise partly to
mostly sunny elsewhere, except becoming mostly sunny along the
nj coast.

Tonight... Mostly clear with diminishing gusts... Tho still a
breeze in the urban centers and along the coasts where boundary
layer instability is greater with the decent cold air advection.

Lows 4 to 8 degrees below normal.

This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z 22 GFS nam mos.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Sunny with spotty high cloudiness early in the day and then a
general deck of WAA mid or high clouds arriving from the west
northwest late in the day reaching to near i-95 around 6 pm.

Light northwest to west wind. Mixing doesn't look too good so a
fairly chilly thanksgiving day. Highs 6 to 9 degrees below
normal.

This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 12z 22 GFS nam mos.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night through Friday night:
high pressure will be in place during this period with mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will warm into the 50's Friday after starting
out in the 20's and 30's. Friday night has trended warmer with
the past few model runs. Light winds will shift to southerly
and increase slightly ahead of an approaching cold front with
lows generally in the 30's and low 40's.

Saturday and Saturday night:
a cold frontal boundary will move through the area on Saturday.

Overall, timing has sped up a few hours on average with the modeling
and ensembles. Enough lift and moisture should be present for a few
spotty rain showers, primarily in the afternoon hours. Temperatures
Saturday morning may be close enough to freezing in the southern
poconos and NW nj for a freezing rain concern. Right now any
precipitation is expected to hold off till mid-morning when it warms
well above freezing. Precipitation looks very light, only a few
hundredths and this forecast used a SREF wpc blend. A few southerly
wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are possible before the
frontal passage. Northwest flow on the backside of the front could
also kick off some sprinkles and flurries toward sunrise Sunday
that could be enhanced where the elevation is highest (southern
poconos and NW nj).

The 12z 11 22 NAM was discounted given a NW bias tendency in the
medium range with low pressure systems. Ensemble guidance continues
to show a low pressure will track from the carolinas northeast
out to sea with little to no influence in our area.

Sunday through Wednesday:
a fairly strong push of cold air advection will occur behind the
front. This will lead to another period of more winter like
temperatures across the region with stronger northwest winds,
gusting perhaps to 25 mph on Sunday. The northwest flow may also
allow for some moisture to transport southeast off of the great
lakes. The moisture could be enhanced by the higher terrain. Highs
Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 40's with overnight lows
will be in the 20's and 30's. Conditions are expected to clear
later Sunday and Monday as the northwest flow weakens and high
pressure builds into the region.

We should see a fairly quick rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with
temperatures into the 50's as the high pressure system moves
offshore. Right now the forecast does hedge above the mean of
the ensemble guidance on Tuesday but is closer to the ensemble
mean on Wednesday. Some uncertainty is present with the speed of
a cold frontal boundary moving toward the area sometime
Wednesday or Thursday of next week. For now, we went middle of
the road between the GFS and ECMWF with a shower chance for
next Wednesday night.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon..Vfr sct-bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft. Northwest wind
gusts 25-30 kt.

Tonight...VFR clear with northwest wind gusts diminishing.

Confidence high.

Thursday...VFR clear or some high clouds at times. Northwest to
west wind with gusts under 15 kt. Confidence high.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night:VFR, westerly winds becoming
southwesterly but staying at 10 knots or less. High confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: sub-vfr possible with some scattered
showers primarily from 15 to 23z. Southerly wind gusts 10-15 knots,
becoming northwest Saturday night. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night:VFR, a few sprinkles or flurries possible.

Northwest winds with gusts from 20-25 knots in the afternoon. Medium
confidence.

Monday and Monday night:VFR, west winds at or under 10 knots. High
confidence.

Marine
Sca continues as previously advertised. Gusts near 30 kt later
this afternoon.

Will discuss in more detail at 230 pm the diminishing wind and
advisory sitn for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night: sub-sca winds and seas. West
winds becoming south on Friday with any gusts under 15 knots. Seas
lower for a time to around three feet. Medium to high confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night: seas building slightly but staying
under 5 feet. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 knots in the afternoon.

Winds becoming northwesterly Saturday night. Medium confidence.

Sunday and Sunday night: seas continue to to build slightly close to
5 feet with a increase in northwest wind gusts around 25 knots in
the afternoon. Low to medium confidence.

Monday and Monday night: west-southwest wind gusts around 15 knots
Monday increasing Monday night to around 25 knots late. Seas
decrease to below SCA levels but should begin to build up by
Tuesday. Medium confidence.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Gaines
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Gaines
aviation... Drag gaines
marine... Drag gaines
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 22 mi59 min WNW 8.9 54°F 1014 hPa34°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi41 min NNW 22 G 25 50°F 50°F1016.5 hPa
CPVM2 30 mi41 min 52°F 31°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 30 mi41 min 54°F 51°F1016.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 33 mi47 min NW 21 G 24 52°F 51°F1013.6 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi39 min N 18 G 23 51°F 1015.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 33 mi29 min NNW 21 G 24 50°F 53°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 33 mi39 min NNW 21 G 25 50°F 1016.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi41 min 50°F 1016.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 37 mi47 min NNW 20 G 25 53°F 1014 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi47 min NW 14 G 23 52°F 47°F1015.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 39 mi41 min NNW 21 G 26 54°F 53°F1013.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 41 mi41 min NW 21 G 24 49°F 1016.1 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 42 mi39 min NNW 18 G 23 50°F 1015.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi41 min 52°F 49°F1014.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi39 min NNW 19 G 25 53°F 1018.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 44 mi41 min NNW 16 G 22 51°F 46°F1014.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi41 min NNE 18 G 23 50°F 54°F1016.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 46 mi41 min NNW 19 G 27 52°F 51°F1013.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi59 min NNW 8.9 52°F 1016 hPa31°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi41 min NNW 21 G 29 52°F 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi35 minNNW 17 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds54°F30°F41%1016.9 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE22 mi93 minNW 17 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F33°F41%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8
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S8--S8S8SW6SW4SW5S7SW7SW8SW4CalmCalmW4W4W5--N6NW16
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1 day agoNW10SW5SW4SW3SW5SW6S5S5SW6SW5S4SW5SW4S5S8S8S7S9S14
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2 days agoNW15
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NW4NW11
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NW6NW6NW11
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NW11NW9NW9
G18
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G15
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G16
W8

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Greensboro
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:44 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:39 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.31.81.30.90.70.81.11.51.921.91.510.50.20.10.40.81.52.22.93.33.3

Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Denton
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:24 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:58 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:34 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.61.20.80.60.70.91.31.61.81.71.30.90.50.20.10.30.71.31.92.52.82.92.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.