Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merriam, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday March 23, 2017 9:19 PM CDT (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:34AMMoonset 2:03PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
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location: 38.98, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Fxus63 keax 232334
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city/pleasant hill mo
634 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion
Issued at 318 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
for the rest of this afternoon, a few light rain showers or a
stray isolated storm are possible across far northwest missouri,
and mainly quiet conditions are expected otherwise. Gusty south
winds are expected to continue as a strong LLJ develops this
evening; however, the weak inversion that sets up overnight may
be just enough to a void wind advisory criteria in our forecast
area.

Convection developing along the high plains this evening is
expected to dissipate before reaching our forecast area Friday
morning, but a prefrontal trough may combine with isentropic lift
and increasing instability to support the development of showers
and embedded thunderstorms during the late morning hours Friday.

The trough axis may be east of the kansas city area before firing
up, so have focused most pops with this round mainly east of the
mo/ks state line. At least some instability and around 40-50 kts
of deep layer shear may support elevated marginal supercell
structures with this first round, but expect it to be a lower-end
event as far as severe weather is concerned as storms will likely
be elevated and cloud cover will prevent surface-based instability
from building.

The main concern for tomorrow will be the potential for a second
round of storms to develop along the dryline/cold front in eastern
ks during the afternoon, and trek eastward into better moisture
and shear during the evening. Since the first round of convection
may develop east of kc, the environment may be a bit more primed
for robust convection. Models indicate up to 1500 j/kg of mucape
by late afternoon, and deep layer shear will be very strong as the
stacked low shifts eastward. Since the low is so vertically well-
aligned, a thermal axis drawing up just ahead of the 850 hpa low
may weaken lapse rates just ahead of the surface low, and impede
updraft acceleration for surface-based parcels. In addition,
although deep layer shear is quite strong, winds are fairly uni-
directional, which keeps 0-1 km shear more on the order of 10-15
kts and the 0-3 km shear vector oriented nearly due north. Many of
the pieces for severe convection are in place, but with just a few
missing elements, feel that the severe threat is still somewhat
conditional for tomorrow. The highest risk for severe weather with
that second round will likely be in our western 2-3 rows of
counties, where instability will be strongest and storms will be
earlier in their genesis, then without the right shear orientation
to organize a defined mcs, morphology could become messy as
storms progress east.

Showers and perhaps an isolated storm will continue to fill in and
wrap around the surface low through at least part of the day on
Saturday, then drier air will move in behind for Sunday. Another
system is still expected to follow behind Sunday night and Monday,
but with a slightly further-south track to the surface low and a
modest moisture return, storms are not expected to be as robust.

A wetter pattern will continue through the rest of next week, but
have still decreased pops in the extended as it is still difficult
to nail down when and where any additional systems will track, and
do not want to "over promise" rainfall in areas that need it.

Although up to an inch of rainfall is possible with the rounds of
storms tomorrow through Saturday, the convective nature and the
speed of precipitation may prevent all areas from seeing that
much.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 625pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017
llws is the main concern for the terminals this evening. Expect
the shear to increase around 03z and diminish after sunrise. Some
MVFR CIGS will move into the terminals tomorrow afternoon.

Increasing chances of thunderstorms tomorrow evening that the 06z
tafs will likely need to address.

Eax watches/warnings/advisories
Ks... None.

Mo... None.

Discussion... Laflin
aviation... Adolphson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS9 mi26 minS 1210.00 miFair69°F46°F44%1008.4 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO11 mi25 minS 12 G 2210.00 miFair74°F44°F34%1008.2 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS14 mi26 minSSE 1610.00 miFair70°F46°F42%1008.2 hPa
Lee's Summit, Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, MO17 mi26 minS 1310.00 miFair71°F46°F41%1009.1 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO24 mi26 minS 18 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy71°F45°F39%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from OJC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13SE13
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1 day agoNE16
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2 days agoNE12NE10NE10E11NE10NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.