Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merriam, KS
March 29, 2024 3:03 AM CDT (08:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM Moonset 8:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 290545 AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1245 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and breezy conditions are forecast for Friday.
- There is a 15 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday evening and night mainly southeast of I-35 as a cold front moves through the region. A rogue strong to severe storm is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast Sunday and Monday, with severe weather possible, particularly on Monday.
- Cooler and drier weather returns for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Objective 12z analysis indicates a deep upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with upstream ridging in the Rockies and Great Plains. Another trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest. Low- and mid-level warm advection was present in the Plains, underneath the progressive central U.S. ridge.
Surface temperatures across the Plains have responded accordingly, with widespread 60s and breezy southwest winds across the region.
A weak perturbation will eject in advance of the Pacific Northwest trough tonight and tomorrow into the northern Plains, leading to the development/progression of a surface low in the central Plains and elevated southerly flow to its south and southeast. Model soundings indicate sufficient mixing during the midday and afternoon hours to generate gusts of 30 to 40 mph in much of the area, with stronger gusts possible in far southern portions of the CWA Have hoisted a wind advisory for Linn County KS and Bates County MO as a result, in coordination with TOP/SGF/ICT. Surface temperatures will continue to warm, with 70s forecast across the region.
Moisture return will also commence with the developing low, leading to a sharp rise in dew points tonight into tomorrow.
Despite steady mixing on Friday, dew point rises of 10 to 15 degrees are forecast during this period. As the system's cold front approaches the region on Friday evening, sufficient lift, moisture, and instability may be present for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (up to 30 percent chance) to develop along and in advance of the front. The highest chances (as depicted in convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance)
appear to be in north-central and central Missouri, in closer proximity to the stronger large-scale ascent and in a region of somewhat richer boundary-layer moisture. However, CAMs are not particularly aggressive in developing convection and certainly not in a widespread manner, owing to sufficient capping in the warm sector. That said, examination of HRRR model soundings would suggest an environment not completely prohibitive of severe weather, with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg and deep-layer bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. Thus, if models trend toward weaker inhibition, will need to watch potential for a strong/severe storm or two. A more likely outcome: elevated storms develop as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies, with timing favoring the aforementioned northeastern portions of the CWA
With cold-frontal passage Friday night, temperatures will be cooler on Saturday (by about 7-12 degrees)...but still above seasonal averages...with dry conditions. However, a stronger system will begin to affect the region by Saturday night. Though the large-scale trough will be near the Pacific Coast, a large region of downstream southwesterly midlevel flow will prevail, and multiple perturbations will be ejecting from the deeper trough. Surface cyclogenesis will commence in the lee of the Rockies by Saturday night, with a developing baroclinic zone extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. Positioning of this baroclinic zone will be critical to (1) high temperatures on Sunday (which could range from upper 50s to low 80s across the CWA), (2) the axis of highest severe-weather risk on Sunday afternoon/night (likely in close proximity to stronger lift near the warm front and from low-level jet contributions), and (3)
geographic placement of subsequent severe-weather risk on Monday (with a farther north positioning of the warm front leading to a more widespread risk for the CWA).
Ensemble probabilities of sufficient CAPE-shear parameter space (exceeding 50 percent Sunday night through Monday afternoon)
would suggest severe weather is a concern during this period, but uncertainty in frontal placement and timing of the vorticity maxima ejecting from the large-scale trough leads to fairly low confidence on the most favorable time window and geographic placement of the highest risk. Ensemble spread is quite high with the low's position and progression through the central U.S., for example. Consider the 12z CMC's low position near the northeast MO/northwest IL/southeast IA intersection at 00z Tuesday, and the 12z GFS's just north of Topeka, KS.
On the other hand, confidence is reasonably high that widespread precipitation will occur in the region during the Sunday-Monday time period (and not that whole period). Continue to monitor forecasts through the weekend to keep updated with the latest forecast thinking. After passage of this system, the rest of the week looks drier with a quick cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a rapid warm-up later in the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Stronger winds above the surface will mox to the surface shortly after sunrise leading to gusty winds today. Scattered- broken deck at 3-4K ft agl is expected to develop, potentially leading to a few showers/thunderstorms after 00Z Saturday if the cap can be overcome. Bes chance for thunderstorms will be east of TAF sites across northern into central Missouri.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053.
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1245 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and breezy conditions are forecast for Friday.
- There is a 15 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday evening and night mainly southeast of I-35 as a cold front moves through the region. A rogue strong to severe storm is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are forecast Sunday and Monday, with severe weather possible, particularly on Monday.
- Cooler and drier weather returns for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Objective 12z analysis indicates a deep upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with upstream ridging in the Rockies and Great Plains. Another trough was moving into the Pacific Northwest. Low- and mid-level warm advection was present in the Plains, underneath the progressive central U.S. ridge.
Surface temperatures across the Plains have responded accordingly, with widespread 60s and breezy southwest winds across the region.
A weak perturbation will eject in advance of the Pacific Northwest trough tonight and tomorrow into the northern Plains, leading to the development/progression of a surface low in the central Plains and elevated southerly flow to its south and southeast. Model soundings indicate sufficient mixing during the midday and afternoon hours to generate gusts of 30 to 40 mph in much of the area, with stronger gusts possible in far southern portions of the CWA Have hoisted a wind advisory for Linn County KS and Bates County MO as a result, in coordination with TOP/SGF/ICT. Surface temperatures will continue to warm, with 70s forecast across the region.
Moisture return will also commence with the developing low, leading to a sharp rise in dew points tonight into tomorrow.
Despite steady mixing on Friday, dew point rises of 10 to 15 degrees are forecast during this period. As the system's cold front approaches the region on Friday evening, sufficient lift, moisture, and instability may be present for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (up to 30 percent chance) to develop along and in advance of the front. The highest chances (as depicted in convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance)
appear to be in north-central and central Missouri, in closer proximity to the stronger large-scale ascent and in a region of somewhat richer boundary-layer moisture. However, CAMs are not particularly aggressive in developing convection and certainly not in a widespread manner, owing to sufficient capping in the warm sector. That said, examination of HRRR model soundings would suggest an environment not completely prohibitive of severe weather, with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg and deep-layer bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. Thus, if models trend toward weaker inhibition, will need to watch potential for a strong/severe storm or two. A more likely outcome: elevated storms develop as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies, with timing favoring the aforementioned northeastern portions of the CWA
With cold-frontal passage Friday night, temperatures will be cooler on Saturday (by about 7-12 degrees)...but still above seasonal averages...with dry conditions. However, a stronger system will begin to affect the region by Saturday night. Though the large-scale trough will be near the Pacific Coast, a large region of downstream southwesterly midlevel flow will prevail, and multiple perturbations will be ejecting from the deeper trough. Surface cyclogenesis will commence in the lee of the Rockies by Saturday night, with a developing baroclinic zone extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. Positioning of this baroclinic zone will be critical to (1) high temperatures on Sunday (which could range from upper 50s to low 80s across the CWA), (2) the axis of highest severe-weather risk on Sunday afternoon/night (likely in close proximity to stronger lift near the warm front and from low-level jet contributions), and (3)
geographic placement of subsequent severe-weather risk on Monday (with a farther north positioning of the warm front leading to a more widespread risk for the CWA).
Ensemble probabilities of sufficient CAPE-shear parameter space (exceeding 50 percent Sunday night through Monday afternoon)
would suggest severe weather is a concern during this period, but uncertainty in frontal placement and timing of the vorticity maxima ejecting from the large-scale trough leads to fairly low confidence on the most favorable time window and geographic placement of the highest risk. Ensemble spread is quite high with the low's position and progression through the central U.S., for example. Consider the 12z CMC's low position near the northeast MO/northwest IL/southeast IA intersection at 00z Tuesday, and the 12z GFS's just north of Topeka, KS.
On the other hand, confidence is reasonably high that widespread precipitation will occur in the region during the Sunday-Monday time period (and not that whole period). Continue to monitor forecasts through the weekend to keep updated with the latest forecast thinking. After passage of this system, the rest of the week looks drier with a quick cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a rapid warm-up later in the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Stronger winds above the surface will mox to the surface shortly after sunrise leading to gusty winds today. Scattered- broken deck at 3-4K ft agl is expected to develop, potentially leading to a few showers/thunderstorms after 00Z Saturday if the cap can be overcome. Bes chance for thunderstorms will be east of TAF sites across northern into central Missouri.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053.
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOJC JOHNSON COUNTY EXECUTIVE,KS | 9 sm | 70 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 34°F | 57% | 29.97 | |
KMKC CHARLES B WHEELER DOWNTOWN,MO | 11 sm | 69 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 36°F | 50% | 29.96 | |
KIXD NEW CENTURY AIRCENTER,KS | 14 sm | 70 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 34°F | 57% | 29.97 | |
KLXT LEE'S SUMMIT MUNI,MO | 18 sm | 70 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 34°F | 47% | 29.98 | |
KMCI KANSAS CITY INTL,MO | 22 sm | 70 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 52°F | 36°F | 54% | 29.95 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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