Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merriam, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:49PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:33 AM CDT (13:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 12:35AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merriam, KS
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.98, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 keax 201122
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city pleasant hill mo
622 am cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Discussion
Issued at 358 am cdt Wed jun 20 2018
today's forecast will hinge on the evolution of a large MCS that
developed over eastern kansas and has progressed eastward overnight.

The line weekend below severe status hours ago, but the cold pool is
still propagating eastwards a a steady rate. Over the last couple
hours a MCV looks to be developing over southern nebraska which has
helped to keep the northern portion of the line from completely
falling apart. 0-3km bulk shear vectors are currently SW around 25-
30kts so as the system starts to take a more NE motion due to the
mcv it is now encountering favorable shear. This could keep these
storms balanced and more intense as they enter NW missouri. The
trailing stratiform precipitation and outflow look to enter mo around
sunrise, but there is still some uncertainty to just how much of
this feature will hold together. To add to the complexity of todays
situation is the cyclogenesis and associated frontogenesis that is
expected to occur on the backside of this feature. There is some
uncertainty to how the guidance evolves this feature with the large
extent of the cold pool over kansas overnight, creating a large
swath of cloud coverage and surface temps in the 60s. With that
said, guidance does have the frontal boundary surge towards our area
late this morning, and could even re-intensify the MCS if it arrives
quick enough. The most likely scenario is that this MCS will slowly
decay on the southern end while staying together with the MCV over
northern missouri providing a slight break in the late morning
timeframe before the front arrives. How much the area can recover
will determine how intense the convective initiation will be along
the front in the afternoon. The current train of thought is that it
will not recover much, leading to mostly non-severe thunderstorms
forming along the front as it progresses eastward. Due to a very
moist atmospheres, pwats near 2", and a moist adiabatic profiles
these storms will be very efficient rainmakers. Fortunately this
line will be progressive so the threat of large scale flash flooding
is low, but localized flooding is possible with the high rain rates.

There may be some pops ahead of the front as a warm front develops
due to the cyclogenesis over NW missouri, but overall it will just
provide much needed rainfall. The cold front will progress quickly
to the east exiting our CWA by sunset. Overall the total storm qpf
looks to be between 1-2", but some areas could see localized heavier
amounts over NW missouri as they will be more effected by the mcs
this morning.

This weather system will rapidly enter into the mature stage
Wednesday into Thursday with a vertically stacked low over iowa and
a strong dry slot through most of our CWA on Thursday. In previous
forecasts the occluded boundary remained over northern missouri but
models have continued to trend this into iowa and that what the
current forecast is looking for as well. The low will finally dive to
the SE Thursday afternoon allowing some wrap around moisture to kick
off some showers and thunderstorms over NW missouri that will track
down into the rest of the CWA in the evening and overnight.

Scattered showers can be expected through Friday morning with some
upper level shortwave troughs intensifying the activity Friday
afternoon over central missouri. Friday night into Saturday the
system will finally eject out of the area leaving a weak area of
high pressure and a rather nice day in store for Saturday. A quick
moving upper level shortwave will move in from the NW increasing
some chances of pops Saturday night into Sunday over the area, but
the mild temperatures will remain in place. Early next week the
pattern looks to become active again as a strong upper level
shortwave trough moves into the central plains creating another
unstable wave and subsequent frontal passages to occur through mid
week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 618 am cdt Wed jun 20 2018
the main concern today will be a couple rounds of scattered
thunderstorms that will move through with a cold frontal boundary
late this morning into the afternoon. Ahead of the cold front some
showers and thunderstorms will form up followed by more of a line
of thunderstorms along the front early in the afternoon. There is
a good amount of uncertainty to timing of the storms as storms
overnight in kansas have complicated the development of the front.

Due to this uncertainty, vcts was utilized to indicate possible
thunderstorm timing as there was not solid window for on station
thunder. Winds will also change from southerly to westerly as the
front passes through and then once again to the NW overnight.

Eax watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Mo... None.

Discussion... Barham
aviation... Barham


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS9 mi41 minSSW 1010.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1008.8 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO11 mi40 minS 1310.00 miFair79°F69°F72%1008.3 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS14 mi41 minS 1110.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1008.9 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO24 mi41 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F70°F82%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from OJC (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrSW8
G16
SW7SW11
G18
SW9
G18
SW14
G22
N9E4CalmSE6SE12
G22
SE7SE7S5SW3S4CalmS3SE4S4S5S5S9S9S10
1 day agoS12
G19
S14
G20
S10SW8
G18
S8S11
G19
S11
G21
S15
G24
S14
G22
S12
G23
S10
G16
S10SW5S4S5S5S4S5S4CalmS3S4S6SW8
2 days agoS13
G20
S12
G21
S12
G19
S12
G22
S9S12
G22
S15
G22
SW13
G24
S12
G23
S12
G20
S12S9S7S9S6S6S6S4S4S5S4S7S7S11
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.