Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 12:04 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 161124 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 624 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds precede a line of showers and thunderstorms this morning. Ambient wind gusts around 35-45 MPH continue throughout the afternoon. Please secure any loose objects.

- The first round of showers and thunderstorms moves into the area around sunrise. These storms bring chances for damaging winds and heavy down pours.

- Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon hours. These storms bring chances for damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. The primary area of concern is across northern MO north of I-70 and east of I-35.

- The evolution of storms today is very highly dependent on preceding activity and the ability for the environment to recharge between rounds. Sun versus clouds could mean the difference between widespread thunderstorms to more discrete stronger cells with the potential for severe hazards.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A low pressure system currently working its way down the front range of the Rockies is bringing us active weather to start Tuesday morning. The 500mb jet streak rounds the base of the low during the overnight while an intensifying low level jet continues to advect warm air and moisture into the region. This keeps the lower atmosphere fairly unstable during the overnight hours. A Pacific front moving across the CONUS serves as the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms developing across central KS which then move eastward through the second half of the night. A line of storms is expected to arrive in far eastern KS early this morning. Strong kinematic forcing, surface convergence, and instability (CAPE values ~1500-2000 J/KgK) present chances for severe weather as this line moves through the region during the morning. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard with a side potential for large hail with elevated storms.

While confidence is high in a line of storms entering the area this morning, the afternoon outlook remains somewhat unclear.
Consensus points toward most of the activity remaining northern of I-70; mainly concentrated along the US-36 corridor. There is fairly high confidence that this second round of storms will be in this general vicinity There are a few scenarios that could play out. All of which are dependent on the timing, location, and effects from the initial line of storms. The first is that storms progress a little slower across western MO. This enables the environment to heat up ahead of the line's arrival into NE MO. This presents the opportunity for some enhanced convection within the line as it approaches the US-65 corridor. This could potentially bring some high winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Many of the short range CAMs have proposed this or a similar solution.

The second proposal is the line decouples from the front and moves briskly through as elevated convection. This then enables clearing behind the line. Continued southerly flow advects further moisture into the region which when coupled with solar heating recharges the environment setting up the potential for a second line of storms during the afternoon. This solution poses the greatest risk for severe storms across the region. Initial discrete supercells bring the potential for significant hail (2"+), high winds, and tornadoes.
Consensus shows initiation of this second line along the I-35 corridor north of the MO River.

The third solution is overspreading cloud cover in the wake of the first line of storms this morning. This limits diurnal heating which in turn limits the ability for the ambient environment to recharge.
It does not eliminate the risk for severe storms; however, it does curtail expected hazards. Strong winds across the system and PWAT values approaching 1"-1.5" suggest a continued potential for damaging wind and heavy rainfall. Severe hail and tornadoes remain possible; however, the lack of additional heating lessens the likelihood of large hail and tornadoes.

There is no one specific solution that stands out, especially as no guidance member has shown strong correlation to observations. It is looking like we will have to see how things play out through the morning hours. After the first line of storms moves through around sunrise, it will become much more clear how the remainder of the day will evolve. Model projections of upper air movements show a classic case of not all of the ingredients making it to the right places at the right times for at least our coverage area. This haphazard organization and arrival of various elements adds uncertainty and plays a significant roll in storm mode and intensity as slight shifts could put things in the right place. Looking at satellite, surface observations, as well as the meteorological conceptual model points towards the second solution being the most likely (initial line followed by redevelopment in the afternoon); however, residual cloud cover behind the first morning line and placement of mesoscale features remain the largest variables. Further dependency on the speed of these morning storms, speed of the overall front, upper level dynamics, and solar heating duration add to the uncertainty.
Regardless, overall chances for severe weather remain present, and it is important that you have a severe weather action plan as well as multiple ways to receive weather information. This is very important in these conditional type scenarios.

Storms exit the region by sunset. Some wrap around precipitation bringing additional isolated thunderstorms is possible across far northern MO overnight. These storms are not expected to be severe.
Looking further, the pattern continues to remain fairly active. An embedded shortwave in the upper level flow looks to spin up a weak leeward trough that passes to our south. This brings chances for precipitation Thursday. Beyond that, a strong midlevel high occupies the central Plains keeping skies clear for the weekend. Upper level flow shifts to more northerly sending cooler Canadian air southward trending temperatures cooler for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail at terminals through mid-morning with low stratus and periodic showers and thunderstorms possible. Clouds and precipitation are expected to clear by 16Z, with mostly sunny skies and a return to VFR conditions. Low-end VFR cigs return around sunset with clouds wrapping around the upper low.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.

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