Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prairie Village, KS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:31PM Saturday October 21, 2017 10:46 AM CDT (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 7:02PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prairie Village, KS
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location: 39, -94.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Fxus63 keax 211140
afdeax
area forecast discussion
national weather service kansas city pleasant hill mo
640 am cdt Sat oct 21 2017

Discussion
Issued at 337 am cdt Sat oct 21 2017
southerly winds gusting to around 30 mph this morning across
the area, as a surface low continues to deepen over the high
plains. This southerly wind is keeping a steady flow of warm moist
air into the area, in advance of a potent mid level trough, which
is poised to move through the area later this afternoon. In the
meantime, warm air advection, elevated showers and thunderstorms
have popped up over far northern kansas and NW missouri, into
southern iowa. A very stiff low level jet, characterized by h85
winds in the 50 to 70 kt range is currently located over kansas
and nebraska, with eastern kansas and western missouri located on
its eastern periphery. This low level jet may be enhancing some
low level lift, but lack of convergence and fairly neutral
isentropic ascent is keeping higher activity at bay for now. The
showers and thunderstorms that are currently ongoing across parts
of eastern kansas, northern missouri, and southern iowa appear to
be more influenced by a shortwave trough, which is gliding over
the area early this morning. Deeper moisture and relatively low
mid level ascent associated with this early morning shortwave is
keeping this morning activity somewhat minimal. Expect broken
stratocu through a good portion of the day, with perhaps some
periods of breaks in the clouds, yielding partially sunny skies
through the day on Saturday.

As the more potent trough pushes into the area later this
afternoon it will bring with it better ascent to get some isolated
to scattered thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early
evening. The wider coverage of thunderstorms will likely come once
the surface cold front drives into the area from the northwest.

Expect widespread thunderstorm activity - starting in far nw
missouri and NE kansas - in the later part of the evening, likely
in the 5 pm to 7 pm time frame. While there could be a few post
frontal strong storms capable of producing some large hail, in the
quarter to golf ball range, the storms will quickly congeal into
an advancing squall line, which will move into the kc metro area
in the 6 pm to 9 pm time frame. While the prefrontal more discrete
storms could bring the hail threat, the line of storms along or
just ahead of the cold front will bring almost predominantly a
wind threat, with perhaps some gusts approaching 60 to 70 mph.

Stiff southerly winds ahead of the line, along with a low level
jet in the 40 to 50 kt range out of the southwest will yield a
good turning in the low levels, which will bring a non-zero
tornado meso-vortex concern within the line of storms. Ml cape
values around 1500 j kg and deep layer shear in the 30 to 40 kt
range will help this complex of storms to maintain some
organization as it GOES through the kc metro area around sunset
and into central missouri through the early overnight hours.

Expect the low level jet to wane a bit through the late evening,
which will help take away some of the loop in the hodograph and
cape will gradually wane with diurnal cooling. So, as the complex
continues eastward into central missouri the concern for
widespread severe weather will gradually wane. Pwat values in the
1.25" to 1.6" range will make rain rates pretty efficient with
these storms, so despite the relatively progressive nature of the
complex rain amounts could still reach over an inch in most
places, with perhaps a few isolated heavier down pours or
favorable storm orientation resulting in amounts in the 2-3 inch
range in some locations. This will bring a marginal concern for
flooding across the area, perhaps more relegated to flood prone
areas and sensitive streams. This complex of storms will push
eastward into central missouri and out of the forecast area by
sunrise Sunday morning.

A benign pattern then emerges for Sunday through the remainder of
the work week. A series of surface ridges move through the area,
which will keep a steady diet of fair weather and alternating
warmer and cooler conditions on tap through next weekend. The only
real notable portion of next week's forecast comes late in the
week with a progressive shortwave trough, which will bring a
transient chance for some light precipitation. However, perhaps
more notable is the potent surface ridge that moves into the area
in its wake, likely bringing the coldest temperatures of the
season thus far, as overnight lows on Friday night into Saturday
morning could drop as low as the lower to middle 30s across a
large portion of the area. While that time period remains 6-7 days
out, it might be a time period worth watching for the first
widespread sub-freezing temperatures across the region.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 635 am cdt Sat oct 21 2017
gusty southerly winds with MVFR CIGS anticipated through the
entire day. There could be a few breaks in the stratus during the
middle part of the day, which could yield some break in the
clouds. Showers and thunderstorms could start up in the 22-23z
time frame, becoming more prevailing between 23z and 02z. Expect
gusty winds approaching possibly 60 mph with this storm activity.

Rain will linger at the terminals through around 04z before
clearing out low trailing stratus by 07z.

Eax watches warnings advisories
Ks... None.

Mo... None.

Discussion... Leighton
aviation... Leighton


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO8 mi52 minS 15 G 2010.00 miOvercast68°F60°F76%1010.2 hPa
Olathe, Johnson County Executive Airport, KS12 mi53 minS 16 G 2410.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1010.3 hPa
Lee's Summit, Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, MO14 mi53 minS 21 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy67°F60°F79%1011.1 hPa
Olathe, New Century Aircenter, KS18 mi53 minS 17 G 2910.00 miOvercast67°F61°F81%1010.3 hPa
Kansas City, Kansas City International Airport, MO23 mi53 minS 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy67°F60°F79%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from MKC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S12
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1 day agoSW8S7SW6S8S8S9S8S13S9S10
G18
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2 days agoS16
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S9S7S4CalmSW6SW8SW6S7N3CalmCalmSW3N3CalmNE3CalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.