Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah Farms, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 432 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Am Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Light winds are expected with high pressure to the south through the weekend. Scattered Thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah Farms, VA
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location: 39.01, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220759
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
359 am edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast. Multiple upper
level disturbances will be possible through Sunday. An upper
level trough of low pressure will move over the northeastern us
early in the week.

Near term today
"the hottest time of the year... " is holding true to form. We
have issued a heat advisory for the i-95 corridor from baltimore
to fredericksburg east to the bay. Question may be how much
cloud cover moves into the area. The way i'm playing it is
that there will be a decent amount of sunshine heating during
the morning, then increasing clouds in the afternoon given
dewpoints in the lower 70s as well as the approaching MCS which
may cap the temp rise in the afternoon. Low to mid 90s air
temperature will be common east of the mountains. However this
is nowhere near daily record values - in 2011 iad reached 105
(also monthly record) and bwi hit 106. Dca reached 103 in 1926.

The next problem to deal with is potential severe weather this
afternoon evening. The main players are a) the heat and humidity
leading to large potential temperature values, and b) the system
over indiana illinois. Watches are currently in effect in this
area, and if the storms remain on their current trajectories
these should impact pa through northern va during prime severe
time. Low level shear is fairly weak but with available cape
storms will have the ability to grow tall. Hrrr is showing 22z
west to 02z east as being the time of greatest potential. Strong
gusty winds will be the primary threat with large hail as a
secondary threat - upper atmosphere is very warm with the -20 c
being at 26.7k feet.

Short term tonight through Monday
Storms could be ongoing during the evening then another
overnight with lows in the 70s.

Sunday appears to be shaping up to be another severe convective
day. Models progged a stronger upper level disturbance with
significant height falls for summertime standards. Shear is also
on the increase and many ensemble members show moderate cape
and some even high CAPE values over 3500 j kg. Expect clusters
of storms to move across the area some with damaging winds.

A cold front will approach the region Monday before pushing across
the region Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of this front. Highs will reach the 90s again.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Noticeable change in the weather will occur following the cold
frontal passage on Monday. High pressure will build into the great
lakes behind the front Monday night, and translate eastward into the
northeastern united states on Tuesday. This will lead to cooler and
less humid conditions with developing northerly to easterly flow.

The high will then quickly shift offshore by Wednesday, but
lingering easterly flow should still keep the temperatures pleasant
across much of the area. There could be some scattered
showers thunderstorms south west nearest to the old frontal boundary
and across the higher terrain.

By the end of the week, the flow will turn around to the southwest
ahead of an approaching frontal system. Temperatures moisture will
likely spike back up ahead of the front, and along with that the
chances for showers thunderstorms.

As far as temperatures, highs Tuesday Wednesday generally in the
80s, and back to near or slightly above 90f for Thursday Friday.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions expected today. Thunderstorms with strong gusty
winds will be possible late this afternoon early this evening.

Storms will again be possible Sunday.

PredominantlyVFR expected Monday night through Wednesday. There may
be some patchy fog low clouds each morning, but otherwise no
significant aviation weather concerns.

Marine
Winds will be below SCA values today through Sunday. Strong
thunderstorms capable of required smw's will be possible late
this afternoon this evening and again Sunday.

Mainly sub-sca winds expected Monday night through Wednesday,
generally northerly Monday night, turning easterly by Wednesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Heat advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening for
dcz001.

Md... Heat advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening for
mdz011-013-014-016>018-504-506.

Va... Heat advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening for
vaz052>057.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Products... Woody! Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 54 mi54 min WNW 5.1 G 6 80°F 87°F1011.2 hPa (-0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi144 min Calm 73°F 1011 hPa72°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 78 mi54 min N 6 G 8.9 82°F 86°F1010.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winchester Regional, VA12 mi59 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1013.9 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi59 minN 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from OKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW8N7NE3NE3E5SE6SE8N6W8SW3SW3SW3CalmSW3CalmSE3W4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW6SW4SW4SW5CalmW3CalmSW5W5W5N4NW4N4CalmNW7W6SW5SW3W5SW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW5SW4S3S3SW3CalmE4SE6E5SE7E6SE7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:41 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.10.20.81.92.93.53.73.52.92.21.50.90.3-00.10.81.82.63.13.22.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.40.10.20.91.92.93.53.73.52.82.11.50.90.3-00.10.91.82.63.13.22.72.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.