Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broadlands, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:55 PM EST (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:22PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 936 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Thu..S winds 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ500 936 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A boundary will remain just south of the waters through tonight before eventually moving to the north as a warm front on Sunday. A cold front will pass through from the west late Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will build over the waters for the first half of the upcoming work week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broadlands, VA
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location: 39.02, -77.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 250223
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
923 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northward through the area on Sunday. A
cold front will then pass through by Sunday evening. High
pressure builds in for the early part of the work week, then
moves offshore by midweek. A stronger system moves through the
region toward the end of the week.

Near term through Sunday
Another round of rain is moving into the region at present, with
the warm front remaining mostly south of the CWA (in fact,
backing back southward a bit from earlier today). Rain is then
expected to spread and focus northward again, closer to the
mason-dixon line, overnight. It appears the true heavy rain axis
remains north and west of us, and therefore, still have not
issued any flood watches (river or areal). Localized flooding in
a heavier rain area cannot be ruled out, however, and there is
a slight risk for excessive rainfall area over much of the cwa<
though the most favored areas remain the far nw. This is
mentioned in our hazardous weather outlook.

Guidance has been backing off on the dense fog potential for
tonight, and given some additional low-level mixing potential,
that kind of makes sense. That's not to say there still won't be
many areas of fog; it just may not be quite as widespread or
dense as this morning.

Once the Sun comes up on Sunday, the winds should flip around
out of the south -- this even happens in the wedge-favored nam,
giving us more confidence. That will quickly scour out the fog
and warm the temperatures. Despite good model agreement in wind
direction, and even rain potential, the MAX temperature forecast
has quite a variety of possibilities, and is trending a bit
less warm in the dulles-to-baltimore corridor. With winds
turning out of the west in the afternoon (promoting drying),
i'm not quite willing to buy in yet, but would not be surprised
if the forecast is adjusted down overnight.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
The next struggle is how far south does the boundary get once it
pushes through. Trends in the model guidance are now drying
things out sooner than the previous cycle, and I have lowered
pops for both Sunday night and Monday (but not removed them
altogether... Yet). Cooler air is slow to filter in, and highs
Monday will still be well into the 50s. As the high settles in,
Monday night will be dry with lows in the 30s; then highs near
60 on Tuesday and lows back near 40 Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
From mid-week until Friday expect unseasonably mild
temperatures and high chances for precipitation. High pressure
centered off the mid- atlantic on Wednesday will move east on
Thursday as a strong area of low pressure develops in the
southern plains and moves into the lower great lakes region
Thursday. Precipitable water values Thursday will range well
above normal... Approaching nearly 1.5 inches. The entire region
should get decent rainfall... Up to an inch from this late week
system.

By Friday... A strong cold front trailing from the parting low
will have swept across the region bringing back late winter
seasonable temperatures... Along with upslope snow showers in the
western mountains. The airmass will still be unstable and
somewhat moist so cannot rule out showers for at least the
morning on Friday.

Saturday presently looks seasonably cool but dry.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Cigs have actually improved across most terminals this evening,
with all except cho now MVFR or evenVFR. Models actually
picked up on the ceilings rising somewhat. Given that rain
is returning to the region and the warm front to our south
should start making progress northward, have nevertheless
retained ifr or low MVFR at all sites, especially once the rain
moves back in after a lull late this afternoon and evening.

Winds will shift out of the south after daybreak, and then turn
southwest and west through the day. Rain generally ends by
early afternoon with ceilings rising as the front passes.

The forecast period beyond the TAF through Tuesday should
feature mid-high clouds at most; yieldingVFR conditions.

High pressure on Wednesday will bringVFR conditions to start
the day. Clouds increase during the afternoon... And there could
be some MVFR CIGS in showers late in the day. As low pressure
east just north of the mason-dixon line... Expect ifr to lifr
cigs and vsbys in precip fog on thur.

Marine
Marine fog will continue again tonight and could become dense
again toward daybreak. Showers off and on throughout the night
and Sunday morning. Winds turn out of the south by late morning
and get a little gusty on the warm side of the warm front, which
looks to reach charles and calvert counties, but may not get any
further north. Expanded small craft advisory for those open
waters. Further north, uncertainty remains about warm front
progression, so held off on the SCA there, though if the warm
front makes it up to dc and baltimore proper, additional sca
expansion may be necessary.

Once the cold front swings through, high pressure quickly
builds in, and winds should be light through Tuesday.

With high pressure just east of the waters on Wednesday expect
winds to remain below SCA wind criteria. Low pressure passing
from the lower great lakes across pennsylvania will bring a
southerly flow on Thursday that could bring marginal SCA winds
due to southerly channeling over the bay... Along with restricted
visibilities in fog precipitation on Thursday into Thursday
night. The next cold front will arrive by the end of the week.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for
anz532>534-536-537-540>543.

Synopsis... Je
near term... Je rcm
short term... Je
long term... Smz
aviation... Je smz rcm
marine... Je smz rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 50°F 48°F1021 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 53 mi38 min E 7 G 7 49°F 44°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA5 mi61 minNNE 33.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1021.3 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA6 mi64 minENE 37.00 miOvercast48°F46°F96%1020.9 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD21 mi60 minN 03.00 miRain Fog/Mist46°F45°F96%1024.3 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA21 mi60 minNNE 33.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F48°F100%1022 hPa

Wind History from JYO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE6NE4NE7NE4NE3NE8NE4NE3N6CalmNE3NE3
1 day agoE3E4E5CalmSE4SE3E3SE5E4SE5E6SE7SE6S6S9S8S8S4CalmS5CalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoN3N7NE10NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
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Sat -- 02:03 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:00 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:23 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.22.62.62.41.81.10.60.20.10.20.61.42.32.93.12.92.41.71.10.70.30.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:03 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:00 PM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.12.52.62.31.81.20.60.20.10.20.61.42.32.932.92.41.71.20.70.40.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.